Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/13/2019

We chatted. Behold, a transcript.

3:59
Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few moments

4:00
Brad Johnson: A note: I’d like to *not* field many keeper questions if you don’t mind. I know there’s an interest in looking ahead at the offseason around this time of year, but there’s plenty of present action to discuss

4:01
Billy B: How do you like the Brewer version of J.Lyles?

4:01
Brad Johnson: Less than the Pirates version so far. Command and SwStr% have been worse.

4:02
Brad Johnson: I’ve been trying perhaps a little too hard to make Lyles work as a fantasy contributor over the last calendar year – mostly in 20-team formats.

4:02
Brad Johnson: As a Brewer, he’s leaned on a .143 BABIP through 3 starts

4:02
Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: Who would be a reasonable OF or SP ask for Aquino?

4:02
DonJulio: How great is The Punisher? Will he be basically figured out by September, or can he be productive even then?

4:03
Brad Johnson: So I have a fairly simplistic home run calculator I’ve made for a Rotoworld column. I plugged estimates of his rates into it and came out with a projection of 51 HR

4:03
Brad Johnson: per 650 PA

4:04
Brad Johnson: As for a SP or OF fit, maybe like Marcus Stroman or Michael Brantley

4:04
Brad Johnson: I don’t know if you’re in redraft or keeper

4:04
Brad Johnson: That valuation is probably smack dab between the two.

4:04
Ketel Corn: Ryan Yarbrough ROS?

4:04
Brad Johnson: Bland but playable

4:05
DonJulio: Would you start Matt Boyd with your season on the line? Obviously depends on who else you have, but…

4:05
Brad Johnson: Yes, I’m reasonable comfortable with him tonight. Decent chance I’m going to use him in DFS in a top heavy pitching slate

4:05
Brad Johnson: Think he can keep pace without drawing much action.

4:06
Jimmy: Do you manage trades / trade deadline moves different in a H2H league vs. roto or season long leagues?  I’m in 1st in H2H, but once playoffs start, it’s a lot of luck, so wondering if I should trade some valuable lower priced guys for the better players that will have to be released at the end of the year.  Flags fly forever, but who knows if those guys will help in a few weeks from now.

4:06
Brad Johnson: Yea, the approach is definitely different, but it relates to category management, not age.

4:07
Brad Johnson: I usually try to tie together around 5 categories and can lock in as wins most weeks

4:07
Brad Johnson: While remaining competitive in most others

4:07
Brad Johnson: Whereas for roto you’re playing the standings.

4:07
Tim: Any general tips for a contending team looking to close out strong in an ottoneu league?

4:07
Brad Johnson: Keep a close eye on your GP and IP limits

4:07
Brad Johnson: Manage accordingly

4:08
Brad Johnson: And if you need an extra shot in the arm, edge up to around 1449 IP then start 5 guys in one day. That can be a tad tricksy to pull off in ottoneu.

4:09
Brad Johnson: Sorry, 1499 IP

4:09
Midwesterner: Is Aaron Civale up for good even after Kluber returns? Rosterresource lists him as SP4, ahead of Plesac. Do you see him as just an OK filler arm, or a low ERA/WHIP guy that can still 9k/9? I was skeptical at first, vs Tigers and Rangers, but he was great at Minnesota.

4:09
Brad Johnson: I think he is currently competing with Plesac. So far, so good. Let’s see how the league adjusts though.

4:10
AC: The direction J. Polanco is trending, is it fine to drop him for Arraez if I already have a better SS and a worse 2B?

4:10
Brad Johnson: I’m assuming we’re talking about a 10-team league or a shallow roster 12-teamer (no MI/CI/etc). If so, yes, it’s fine to churn a bit.

4:11
Brad Johnson: Just don’t be surprised if Polanco catches fire again

4:11
Brad Johnson: He’s good.

4:11
Tanak’d Out: Deal Tanaka now off his last start? Or does the splitter still have some life?

4:12
Brad Johnson: He supposedly is throwing a new splitter. I’m interested to see how it holds up in subsequent starts

4:12
Brad Johnson: It’s worth fielding offers, just don’t force anything

4:12
Aaron Judge: Lost year for me? Got nuttin’ since being activated.

4:13
Brad Johnson: It’s funny, he’s having a good season in a way that really isn’t helping fantasy owners. The Yankees have to be happy with a .400 OBP out of the 2-hole

4:13
Halo: Heaney worth anything ROS? Lots of other sites seem to be pushing him to finish strong.

4:13
Brad Johnson: I mean…

4:13
Brad Johnson: look around

4:13
Brad Johnson: the pitching landscape is a bunch of puddle of puke

4:13
Brad Johnson: The Heaney puddle might appear to be more shallow, but I think that’s an illusion

4:13
Brad Johnson: He’s just as crap as the other free guys

4:14
AJ: Is Ian Happ an improved hitter? Him or VanMeter, another 2b timeshare upside play? (BTW, I’d heard it said that Happ can’t hit fastballs, but Statcast refutes that.)

4:15
Brad Johnson: I’m preferring VanMeter at the moment. I don’t have a lot of insight into Happ. I haven’t closely followed him since he recall.

4:15
Brad Johnson: It’s not like he lit of Triple-A though (sub-100 wRC+)

4:15
First, Base: Mike Ford or Ji-Man Choi (OBP league)? Thanks!

4:15
Brad Johnson: I like Ford more, but take it week by week

4:15
KitAndCanoodle: How much longer should I keep the leash on K. Davis? Waivers don’t hold a ton, but I could use the bench spot for streaming an arm or something.

4:15
Brad Johnson: He sure seems broken

4:16
Brad Johnson: We’re going to find out he was playing without and ulna and a radius this year

4:16
Brad Johnson: Just a blob of arm-shaped meat between his humorous and wrist

4:16
jack: Most holds rest of season? Stammen, Gallegos, Harris, Bummer

4:17
Brad Johnson: Gallegos or Harris seem the smart bets

4:17
AC: What do you make of Montgomery’s last start? Does he, Smyly, DeSclafani, or Woj have a chance to be useful down the stretch?

4:17
Brad Johnson: I think all of them EXCEPT Monty might be useful down the stretch

4:17
Brad Johnson: Just play matchups and pay attention to venues

4:18
baseballdude: i’ve been trying out different 2b all season (the latest being danny santana).  would you drop santana for a flier on josh rojas?  i could also drop pollock or eloy?  H2H points league

4:18
Brad Johnson: Took long enough for Rojas to show up

4:18
Brad Johnson: I may have been more subtle than Alex, but I’ve been hyping him since last season.

4:19
Brad Johnson: I’d hang onto Eloy in case he lights up

4:20
Brad Johnson: I don’t have strong preferences between the other three. I’ll point out that Santana + Rojas could really help to carry SBs while contributing elsewhere. But Pollock is the *safest* to perform reasonably well

4:21
Brad Johnson: Santana and Rojas could both spontaneously disappear into a dark corner of the bench

4:21
Brad Johnson: Or in Rojas’ case, Triple-A.

4:21
Brad Johnson: The DBacks have been trying my patience by refusing to free Kevin Cron

4:22
bk32: how are you valuing kenley based on the dodgers announcing him getting planned days off down the stretch? still top 10 closer?

4:22
Brad Johnson: Yea, I’ll shake out exactly where I move him tomorrow when I update Saves and Steals

4:22
Brad Johnson: But I have to imagine he’s still top 10

4:22
baseballdude: re: josh rojas…so…what you’re saying is…dont drop danny santana, pollock, or eloy for him?

4:23
Brad Johnson: Not exactly. Decide how bold you need to be.

4:23
Brad Johnson: Are you managing for floor or ceiling?

4:23
Brad Johnson: And once you decide that, then decide which categories you most need.

4:23
J: Ian Happ didn’t do it all year but definitely lit up AAA the month before he came back. OPS over 1.050. His zone contact percentage (by far his biggest issue last year) is up over 10%. He also is noticeably shorter to the ball. I’m definitely buying.

4:24
Brad Johnson: In short, don’t give up on Happ just because I can quote full season data 🙂

4:24
Jake: How much longer do you expect tauchman to be good

4:24
Brad Johnson: I think he just is good

4:25
Brad Johnson: I don’t expect him to continue playing like an All Star if that’s what you mean

4:25
Brad Johnson: But something similar to a healthy Aaron Hicks (in real world value, not in specific fantasy production) seems a reasonable expectation

4:25
baseballdude: re: josh rojas…H2H points league.  i have secured a first round bye so i dont really have to manage for anything until september 2nd…but rojas comes off of waiver claims tomorrow morning.

4:26
Brad Johnson: I don’t have a good grasp on pts league valuations. I’m a categories man.

4:26
Brad Johnson: The points leagues I play are non-standard.

4:26
Gibson: Any chance the Cardinals play Lane Thomas more often and if so what do you think his ROS outlook is?

4:27
Brad Johnson: There’s definitely a chance – they’re a team that believes in riding the hot hand

4:27
Brad Johnson: And O’Neill keeps landing on the shelf

4:27
Brad Johnson: That said, I don’t think he’s more than a fourth or fifth outfielder

4:28
Brad Johnson: average or better contact skills, average to slightly worse discipline, below average power, too many grounders

4:28
Brad Johnson: So if you’re fishing for more than a warm body, fish elsewhere.

4:28
Hi There: What are your expectations for Jon Berti ROS? I have a hole a 2B and could use steals but don’t know how comfortable I should feel plugging him in there

4:28
Brad Johnson: You should not be comfortable.

4:28
Brad Johnson: I’ve been hoping he got a chance since late last season

4:29
Brad Johnson: The profile is almost a copy paste of Lane Thomas just in terms of general traits. Plus a 20 SB pace per 650 PA

4:30
Brad Johnson: The bonus with Berti is that the Marlins are hot trash

4:30
Lucas: Seth Beer got a shot at a Sept callup?

4:30
Brad Johnson: Maybe

4:30
Brad Johnson: From an asset management perspective, I’d be surprised

4:31
Brad Johnson: Cron is probably a legitimate starting 1B, and they’ve kept him thoroughly blocked by weaker options.

4:31
Brad Johnson: And it doesn’t make sense to plop Beer on the 40-man if he’s just going to 3- or 4-way timeshare 1B.

4:32
Brad Johnson: I don’t know if they’re still pretending he might be an outfielder

4:32
Brad Johnson: From what I hear, he’s 30-grade out there.

4:32
Fed: What’s your Scooter ROS?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Gotten a few Scooter queries. I honestly don’t know.

4:33
Brad Johnson: Every year, there’s a Gennett story

4:33
Brad Johnson: Sometimes they finally put it together against weaker competition in September

4:33
Brad Johnson: Other years, they need to reset over the offseason

4:33
Brad Johnson: I’m reminded of what should have been Michael Brantley’s peak

4:34
Brad Johnson: If you want an example

4:34
Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: Who do you prefer Aquino or Eloy long term?

4:34
Brad Johnson: It would be foolish to not prefer Eloy by a wide margin

4:35
Brad Johnson: There’s something like a 60+% chance Aquino doesn’t accrue 1,000 PA in his career.

4:35
Brad Johnson: Of course, there’s also some room for him to outperform Eloy

4:35
3 in 5: Marco Gonzales gets no love yet he’s has been solid for the last 2+ months esp considering his team. I don’t need K’s. He’s sitting on the waiver wire with Civale, Bassitt, Keuchel, Quantril, and Anibal. I need wins. What say you?

4:35
Brad Johnson: If you need wins, then Gonzales ain’t your guy

4:35
Brad Johnson: Play the matchups

4:36
John: Brad, is Will Smith’s ceiling more 20+ hr or 15 or less? I’m in a 4×4 keeper league and it’s a thin position as we only use 20 teams.

4:36
Brad Johnson: He’s looking like a + at this time

4:36
Brad Johnson: He already has 27 in under 400 PA this year

4:36
Jacob: Carson Kelly a viable option next couple years at C?

4:36
Brad Johnson: Better than viable

4:37
Brad Johnson: One of the best

4:37
Adam : Which of these back end guys can I trust down the stretch? Mitch Keller. Canning. Heaney, Caleb Smith. Maeda. Gibson. Woodruff. Montgomery

4:37
Brad Johnson: You can’t trust any of them

4:37
Brad Johnson: But Smith and Gibson are the best of the bunch

4:37
Brad Johnson: Woodruff is the wild card

4:37
Brad Johnson: I’m not up to date on his progress

4:37
Guest: Would you cut a $6 Jose Martinez in an Otto fangraphs points league at this time?

4:37
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:38
Ranking Rojas?: Where you would rank Josh Rojas rest of season compared to Didi Gregorious, Semien, or Mondesi? Semien and Mondesi seem like no brainers over Rojas so I’m more interested compared to Gregorious especially when they have the same keeper value.

4:38
Brad Johnson: As he’s played just one game, I have to put Rojas distantly last on that list

4:39
Brad Johnson: Let’s go back to the Aquino or Eloy question real quick wrt this Rojas or Didi question

4:39
Brad Johnson: Rojas, like Aquino, is probably more likely than not to never accrue 1000 PA. But, in the scenarios where he does, he’s likely to be a very meaningful fantasy contributor.

4:40
Brad Johnson: So, for somebody like me, this question is a trap

4:40
Brad Johnson: There’s an answer I MUST give because it’s simple probability

4:40
Brad Johnson: But there’s also the scenarios where I look foolish.

4:41
Brad Johnson: I guess my point is – the upside for both Aquino and Rojas is very visible. It’s easy to describe how and why they might succeed.

4:42
Brad Johnson: So my preference for Eloy and Didi shouldn’t be construed as not liking Aquino and Rojas. It’s just a simple application of historical trends

4:42
Sale: Think he is out of the woods from recent struggles or will he have some blow-ups rest of the way?

4:42
Brad Johnson: Seems he’s going to be a little volatile ROS

4:43
Ranking Rojas?: Promise it’s not a trap. I was looking for upside in keeper leagues (I know you said less keeper questions). Mondesi and Semien are who I would keep over gregorious and would swap in Rojas for an ROS and future upside play.

4:43
Brad Johnson: Well, I could see going Rojas if you need SBs

4:43
The Bat: How likely is Lance Lynn to continue his success?

4:43
Brad Johnson: Lance Lynn is an every-five-days look in the mirror at my personal failure

4:44
Brad Johnson: I don’t understand why hitters aren’t hitting him

4:44
Brad Johnson: But they aren’t, and we’re at the point where I’m ready to shrug it off

4:44
Brad Johnson: It’s working. I prefer to understand *why* it’s working, but that’s not necessary

4:44
Marlins Fan: Gotta watch where guys hit too… rojas batted 6th where tauchman hits 9th… berti has batted 2nd some… there could be a lot more ABs depending on where they bat

4:44
Feddy: Severino isn’t worth a roster spot when he comes back in the bullpen, is he? (2 keeper league)

4:44
Brad Johnson: Not as a reliever, no

4:45
Feddy: Brian Anderson, Renato Nunez, or neither?

4:45
Jeff: I currently own Grandal in dynasty.  Carson Kelly is available, is it reasonable to carry two catchers?  I like what Kelly has to offer.  I’d be dropping Isan Diaz, Didi or Maeda for him.

4:45
Brad Johnson: Temporarily yes, that’s fine

4:45
Brad Johnson: I didn’t mean to click Feddy’s question. I don’t have enough context to answer.

4:45
Brad Johnson: They’re both fringe for 12-team mixed with CI

4:45
PB: Re: the Lynn comment…kind of how I feel with Wade Miley this year. Like how is he doing it?

4:46
Brad Johnson: I have some insight into Miley. He built a better cutter last season

4:46
Brad Johnson: And he’s kept using it.

4:46
Brad Johnson: The Astros generally put out a strong infield defense which is helping with his BABIP

4:47
JupiterBrando: do people place too much value on planning for next year in 12-team mixed keepers? a friend turned down a win-now trade (Wood and Wheeleer, 2 starts each for Giolito, 1 start) that would really help him in the playoffs. our waiver wire had Giolito, Minor, Lynn, Odorizzi and Boyd on it to start the year, among others.

4:47
Brad Johnson: Yea, probably

4:47
Brad Johnson: I could see selling yourself on Giolito the Ace

4:47
Brad Johnson: But, that’s not a percentage play

4:47
Trout Cannons: Will Smith or Carson Kelly next 3 years?

4:48
Brad Johnson: I’m going to say Kelly because the Dodgers are going to have Keibert jumping in the mix next year.

4:48
Ranking Rojas?: What about in terms of profile and pedigree? I’m considering dropping gregorious for him as I mostly play semien and have mondesi on the mend.

4:48
Brad Johnson: Well, Rojas as no pedigree to speak of…

4:49
Brad Johnson: The profile looks like Semien with more SBs

4:50
zen arcade: Drop Luis Robert or a quickly fading (injured but playing) Domingo Santana in a deep mixed redraft 5×5 roto league?

4:50
Brad Johnson: I’d be surprised if the White Sox promote Robert

4:50
Brad Johnson: They only promoted Eloy to start the season because he signed an extension

4:50
Brad Johnson: They’ll punt Robert back into 2020

4:51
Brad Johnson: And frankly, it’s not like he’s a must-promote player. His batting profile is all kinds of early career Javy Baez

4:51
Brad Johnson: Including an over 20% SwStr% at Triple-A (hint: that’s bad!)

4:51
Feddy: Sorry to ask a keeper question, but in my two keeper league, I have Acuna as my first keeper, and I’m trying to decide between bregman and verlander for the second one. What do you think?

4:51
Brad Johnson: Bregman

4:52
Brad Johnson: That’s two perennial first rounders

4:52
Brad Johnson: The concept of a 2 keeper league is confusing to me

4:53
Brad Johnson: It just seems like an excuse for a couple sharks to start with an ace in their hand

4:53
DJ Tanner: How deep of prospects would you target in a deep dynasty? Luis Matos seems like he could be one of those surprise international guys to rule fantasy in 3 years. Do you track guys like this and do you encourage snagging them in deep dynasty?

4:53
Brad Johnson: I have a share of Matos in a 25-team league and very nearly traded Paxton for a package headlined by him

4:54
Brad Johnson: So yes, in deep dynasty, I’m absolutely digging for pop up international guys

4:54
Brad Johnson: Though my personal skill set is in finding Rojas and Aquino types

4:54
Getting Rowdy: Rowdy Tellez just got called up after a scorching stint in AAA. Think he regains his mojo? Rowdy or Mike Ford?

4:55
Brad Johnson: That’s a push for me. I like Fords traits more, but I’m not sure he’ll play as much. Especially if Gleyber’s random core pain is gone

4:55
Antonio: who hits more dingers ROS Harper, Soler, or Aquino?

4:55
Brad Johnson: Soler seems like the safest bet. I wanna say Aquino though

4:55
howdy: any chance one of gallo or stanton provide any value for playoffs?

4:55
Brad Johnson: If your playoffs start late, maybe

4:56
Brad Johnson: But they’re tracking for mid-September returns

4:56
Brad Johnson: Possibly a little earlier

4:56
Snowy: Which of the Braves young starters do you expect to be in the rotation next year? Soroka-Fried-Ian Anderson seem like locks, but a lot of uncertainty after that

4:56
Brad Johnson: Soroka is the only lock for me

4:56
Khrush: Is Khris Davis droppable at this point? Or is there still hope?

4:56
Brad Johnson: In shallow formats, definitely

4:56
Brad Johnson: Has been for a while

4:57
Lucas: Jesus Sanchez another Marlins prospect steal or just a regular OF of the future?

4:57
Brad Johnson: High volatility OFer

4:57
Brad Johnson: I think the median outcome is rather Nick Wiliams-like

4:57
Brad Johnson: You keep looking at him and wondering why the results aren’t better

4:58
Brad Johnson: He has all kinds of Face, and I think that’s holding up his prospect status a tad

4:58
Brad Johnson: That said, I only got one look at him while he was in Durham, and there were doggos in the park

4:59
Soler: Is he just a product of the ball or do you expect his production to continue the next few years?

4:59
Brad Johnson: Little of both I suspect

4:59
bob: are you a big believer in gavin lux? pretty insane minor league numbers right now

4:59
Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s considered a top 10 prospect in dynasty leagues

4:59
Trout Cannons: Small rosters have only 3 spots for Donaldson, Harper, Ozuna, and Vlad on a daily basis while chasing Rbi/HR/Slug. Are you playing pitcher matchups or sitting Vlad in all but the extreme cases like @SF?

5:00
Brad Johnson: Matchup game

5:01
Brad Johnson: Harper sits vs tough LHP, Donaldson against tough RHP, Vlad is in more often than not imo

5:01
Brad Johnson: Ozuna would be my short straw if all 4 have good matchups

5:01
Cristian Pache: any thoughts on my fantasy outlook?

5:01
Brad Johnson: Not yet

5:01
Brad Johnson: It’s been an encouraging season

5:01
Brad Johnson: The outlook was purely real world + SBs prior to this year

5:01
Brad Johnson: Now there’s a little hope he can help us in our categories too

5:02
Brad Johnson: He’s still a defense first prospect. Might get to be the Kiermaier who was promised. Rather this always injured version

5:03
Brad Johnson: One concerning detail, despite 60-70 grade speed, he is only 8-for-19 on the season

5:03
Brad Johnson: And he was 7-for-15 last year

5:04
Brad Johnson: I have a share in a 25-team league and I anticipate a lot of hemming and hawing over what to do with him

5:04
Kdog: Ever have your finger on a button to add a guy and then talk yourself out of it before someone else does and he goes on a tear? Slow. Death. (Aquino)

5:04
Brad Johnson: Worse, I’ll have a move locked, go to confirm with my co-owner, then forget about it

5:05
Brad Johnson: Lost Urshela and VanMeter that way in a 20-team dynasty

5:05
Brad Johnson: Wound up paying JD Davis and Doolittle for VM and Rojas (and Solak and Ornelas)

5:05
Brad Johnson: Too many “ands”

5:05
Brad Johnson: And it’s time to wrap up!

5:05
Trout Cannons: RE Harper vs LHP, he has pretty strong reverse splits this year and especially for HR

5:06
Brad Johnson: We have larger samples than that to use

5:06
Brad Johnson: And I did say tough LHP

5:06
Brad Johnson: He’s mostly faced dogshite

5:06
Brad Johnson: Name a good LHP in the NL East besides Corbin

5:06
Brad Johnson: I’m not going to wait

5:07
Brad Johnson: I guess Caleb Smith is “good.” I keep forgetting 4.00 ERA talent is good now.

5:07
Daniel Castro: Jerry Dipoto acquired me because he knows I will mash!

5:07
DC: Starting pitching is at a premium in my 16 team H2H. Trade deadline just passed. Any guys I should stash on my minors roster that might get called up? I’ve got Trey Supak and James Marvel so far.

5:07
Brad Johnson: Webb in SF

5:07
Brad Johnson: Logan Webb

5:08
Brad Johnson: Triple-A debut was a 7-inning gem

5:08
Brad Johnson: They’re only like 5 back for the 2nd WC so they have some incentive to use their best guys

5:09
Jeff: Following up – My league is deep 12 team dynasty league.  So adding Carson Kelly would help with future C as Grandal is only getting older and seemed to slow down.  I’m competing this year, so not sure I’d want to drop Maeda.  Isan Diaz seems like a young intriguing player.

5:09
Brad Johnson: If it’s a 1 catcher league, I wouldn’t fuss about having a keeper C on hand

5:09
Brad Johnson: Grandal himself is good for a couple years yet

5:09
Brad Johnson: On that note, I think it’s time to close the doors

5:10
Brad Johnson: Thanks for participate in the Josh Rojas hour

5:10
Urshela: Put $10 on him, winning bid was $11 #regrets

5:10
Pat: Who is your biggest SP and Hitter disappointment this year?

5:10
Brad Johnson: Let’s play it out

5:10
DC: Thoughts on Phil Ervin? I’ve been hanging on to him since the Puig trade. Playing time just hasn’t been there yet though.

5:10
Brad Johnson: Surpassed by Aquino.

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