Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/13/2019
by Brad Johnson
August 13, 2019
We chatted. Behold, a transcript.
| 3:59 |
: We’ll get started in a few moments |
| 4:00 |
: A note: I’d like to *not* field many keeper questions if you don’t mind. I know there’s an interest in looking ahead at the offseason around this time of year, but there’s plenty of present action to discuss
|
| 4:01 |
: How do you like the Brewer version of J.Lyles?
|
| 4:01 |
: Less than the Pirates version so far. Command and SwStr% have been worse.
|
| 4:02 |
: I’ve been trying perhaps a little too hard to make Lyles work as a fantasy contributor over the last calendar year – mostly in 20-team formats. |
| 4:02 |
: As a Brewer, he’s leaned on a .143 BABIP through 3 starts
|
| 4:02 |
: Who would be a reasonable OF or SP ask for Aquino?
|
| 4:02 |
: How great is The Punisher? Will he be basically figured out by September, or can he be productive even then?
|
| 4:03 |
: So I have a fairly simplistic home run calculator I’ve made for a Rotoworld column. I plugged estimates of his rates into it and came out with a projection of 51 HR
|
| 4:03 |
: per 650 PA |
| 4:04 |
: As for a SP or OF fit, maybe like Marcus Stroman or Michael Brantley
|
| 4:04 |
: I don’t know if you’re in redraft or keeper
|
| 4:04 |
: That valuation is probably smack dab between the two.
|
| 4:04 |
: Ryan Yarbrough ROS?
|
| 4:04 |
: Bland but playable
|
| 4:05 |
: Would you start Matt Boyd with your season on the line? Obviously depends on who else you have, but… |
| 4:05 |
: Yes, I’m reasonable comfortable with him tonight. Decent chance I’m going to use him in DFS in a top heavy pitching slate
|
| 4:05 |
: Think he can keep pace without drawing much action.
|
| 4:06 |
: Do you manage trades / trade deadline moves different in a H2H league vs. roto or season long leagues? I’m in 1st in H2H, but once playoffs start, it’s a lot of luck, so wondering if I should trade some valuable lower priced guys for the better players that will have to be released at the end of the year. Flags fly forever, but who knows if those guys will help in a few weeks from now.
|
| 4:06 |
: Yea, the approach is definitely different, but it relates to category management, not age.
|
| 4:07 |
: I usually try to tie together around 5 categories and can lock in as wins most weeks
|
| 4:07 |
: While remaining competitive in most others |
| 4:07 |
: Whereas for roto you’re playing the standings.
|
| 4:07 |
: Any general tips for a contending team looking to close out strong in an ottoneu league?
|
| 4:07 |
: Keep a close eye on your GP and IP limits
|
| 4:07 |
: Manage accordingly
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| 4:08 |
: And if you need an extra shot in the arm, edge up to around 1449 IP then start 5 guys in one day. That can be a tad tricksy to pull off in ottoneu.
|
| 4:09 |
: Sorry, 1499 IP |
| 4:09 |
: Is Aaron Civale up for good even after Kluber returns? Rosterresource lists him as SP4, ahead of Plesac. Do you see him as just an OK filler arm, or a low ERA/WHIP guy that can still 9k/9? I was skeptical at first, vs Tigers and Rangers, but he was great at Minnesota.
|
| 4:09 |
: I think he is currently competing with Plesac. So far, so good. Let’s see how the league adjusts though.
|
| 4:10 |
: The direction J. Polanco is trending, is it fine to drop him for Arraez if I already have a better SS and a worse 2B?
|
| 4:10 |
: I’m assuming we’re talking about a 10-team league or a shallow roster 12-teamer (no MI/CI/etc). If so, yes, it’s fine to churn a bit.
|
| 4:11 |
: Just don’t be surprised if Polanco catches fire again
|
| 4:11 |
: He’s good. |
| 4:11 |
: Deal Tanaka now off his last start? Or does the splitter still have some life?
|
| 4:12 |
: He supposedly is throwing a new splitter. I’m interested to see how it holds up in subsequent starts
|
| 4:12 |
: It’s worth fielding offers, just don’t force anything
|
| 4:12 |
: Lost year for me? Got nuttin’ since being activated.
|
| 4:13 |
: It’s funny, he’s having a good season in a way that really isn’t helping fantasy owners. The Yankees have to be happy with a .400 OBP out of the 2-hole
|
| 4:13 |
: Heaney worth anything ROS? Lots of other sites seem to be pushing him to finish strong. |
| 4:13 |
: I mean…
|
| 4:13 |
: look around
|
| 4:13 |
: the pitching landscape is a bunch of puddle of puke
|
| 4:13 |
: The Heaney puddle might appear to be more shallow, but I think that’s an illusion
|
| 4:13 |
: He’s just as crap as the other free guys
|
| 4:14 |
: Is Ian Happ an improved hitter? Him or VanMeter, another 2b timeshare upside play? (BTW, I’d heard it said that Happ can’t hit fastballs, but Statcast refutes that.) |
| 4:15 |
: I’m preferring VanMeter at the moment. I don’t have a lot of insight into Happ. I haven’t closely followed him since he recall.
|
| 4:15 |
: It’s not like he lit of Triple-A though (sub-100 wRC+)
|
| 4:15 |
: Mike Ford or Ji-Man Choi (OBP league)? Thanks!
|
| 4:15 |
: I like Ford more, but take it week by week
|
| 4:15 |
: How much longer should I keep the leash on K. Davis? Waivers don’t hold a ton, but I could use the bench spot for streaming an arm or something.
|
| 4:15 |
: He sure seems broken |
| 4:16 |
: We’re going to find out he was playing without and ulna and a radius this year
|
| 4:16 |
: Just a blob of arm-shaped meat between his humorous and wrist
|
| 4:16 |
: Most holds rest of season? Stammen, Gallegos, Harris, Bummer
|
| 4:17 |
: Gallegos or Harris seem the smart bets
|
| 4:17 |
: What do you make of Montgomery’s last start? Does he, Smyly, DeSclafani, or Woj have a chance to be useful down the stretch?
|
| 4:17 |
: I think all of them EXCEPT Monty might be useful down the stretch
|
| 4:17 |
: Just play matchups and pay attention to venues
|
| 4:18 |
: i’ve been trying out different 2b all season (the latest being danny santana). would you drop santana for a flier on josh rojas? i could also drop pollock or eloy? H2H points league
|
| 4:18 |
: Took long enough for Rojas to show up
|
| 4:18 |
: I may have been more subtle than Alex, but I’ve been hyping him since last season.
|
| 4:19 |
: I’d hang onto Eloy in case he lights up
|
| 4:20 |
: I don’t have strong preferences between the other three. I’ll point out that Santana + Rojas could really help to carry SBs while contributing elsewhere. But Pollock is the *safest* to perform reasonably well
|
| 4:21 |
: Santana and Rojas could both spontaneously disappear into a dark corner of the bench
|
| 4:21 |
: Or in Rojas’ case, Triple-A.
|
| 4:21 |
: The DBacks have been trying my patience by refusing to free Kevin Cron
|
| 4:22 |
: how are you valuing kenley based on the dodgers announcing him getting planned days off down the stretch? still top 10 closer?
|
| 4:22 |
: Yea, I’ll shake out exactly where I move him tomorrow when I update Saves and Steals
|
| 4:22 |
: But I have to imagine he’s still top 10
|
| 4:22 |
: re: josh rojas…so…what you’re saying is…dont drop danny santana, pollock, or eloy for him?
|
| 4:23 |
: Not exactly. Decide how bold you need to be.
|
| 4:23 |
: Are you managing for floor or ceiling?
|
| 4:23 |
: And once you decide that, then decide which categories you most need.
|
| 4:23 |
: Ian Happ didn’t do it all year but definitely lit up AAA the month before he came back. OPS over 1.050. His zone contact percentage (by far his biggest issue last year) is up over 10%. He also is noticeably shorter to the ball. I’m definitely buying.
|
| 4:24 |
: In short, don’t give up on Happ just because I can quote full season data 🙂
|
| 4:24 |
: How much longer do you expect tauchman to be good
|
| 4:24 |
: I think he just is good
|
| 4:25 |
: I don’t expect him to continue playing like an All Star if that’s what you mean
|
| 4:25 |
: But something similar to a healthy Aaron Hicks (in real world value, not in specific fantasy production) seems a reasonable expectation
|
| 4:25 |
: re: josh rojas…H2H points league. i have secured a first round bye so i dont really have to manage for anything until september 2nd…but rojas comes off of waiver claims tomorrow morning.
|
| 4:26 |
: I don’t have a good grasp on pts league valuations. I’m a categories man.
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| 4:26 |
: The points leagues I play are non-standard.
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| 4:26 |
: Any chance the Cardinals play Lane Thomas more often and if so what do you think his ROS outlook is?
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| 4:27 |
: There’s definitely a chance – they’re a team that believes in riding the hot hand
|
| 4:27 |
: And O’Neill keeps landing on the shelf
|
| 4:27 |
: That said, I don’t think he’s more than a fourth or fifth outfielder
|
| 4:28 |
: average or better contact skills, average to slightly worse discipline, below average power, too many grounders
|
| 4:28 |
: So if you’re fishing for more than a warm body, fish elsewhere.
|
| 4:28 |
: What are your expectations for Jon Berti ROS? I have a hole a 2B and could use steals but don’t know how comfortable I should feel plugging him in there
|
| 4:28 |
: You should not be comfortable.
|
| 4:28 |
: I’ve been hoping he got a chance since late last season
|
| 4:29 |
: The profile is almost a copy paste of Lane Thomas just in terms of general traits. Plus a 20 SB pace per 650 PA
|
| 4:30 |
: The bonus with Berti is that the Marlins are hot trash
|
| 4:30 |
: Seth Beer got a shot at a Sept callup?
|
| 4:30 |
: Maybe
|
| 4:30 |
: From an asset management perspective, I’d be surprised
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| 4:31 |
: Cron is probably a legitimate starting 1B, and they’ve kept him thoroughly blocked by weaker options.
|
| 4:31 |
: And it doesn’t make sense to plop Beer on the 40-man if he’s just going to 3- or 4-way timeshare 1B.
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| 4:32 |
: I don’t know if they’re still pretending he might be an outfielder
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| 4:32 |
: From what I hear, he’s 30-grade out there.
|
| 4:32 |
: What’s your Scooter ROS?
|
| 4:32 |
: Gotten a few Scooter queries. I honestly don’t know.
|
| 4:33 |
: Every year, there’s a Gennett story
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| 4:33 |
: Sometimes they finally put it together against weaker competition in September
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| 4:33 |
: Other years, they need to reset over the offseason
|
| 4:33 |
: I’m reminded of what should have been Michael Brantley’s peak
|
| 4:34 |
: If you want an example
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| 4:34 |
: Who do you prefer Aquino or Eloy long term?
|
| 4:34 |
: It would be foolish to not prefer Eloy by a wide margin
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| 4:35 |
: There’s something like a 60+% chance Aquino doesn’t accrue 1,000 PA in his career.
|
| 4:35 |
: Of course, there’s also some room for him to outperform Eloy
|
| 4:35 |
: Marco Gonzales gets no love yet he’s has been solid for the last 2+ months esp considering his team. I don’t need K’s. He’s sitting on the waiver wire with Civale, Bassitt, Keuchel, Quantril, and Anibal. I need wins. What say you?
|
| 4:35 |
: If you need wins, then Gonzales ain’t your guy
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| 4:35 |
: Play the matchups
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| 4:36 |
: Brad, is Will Smith’s ceiling more 20+ hr or 15 or less? I’m in a 4×4 keeper league and it’s a thin position as we only use 20 teams.
|
| 4:36 |
: He’s looking like a + at this time
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| 4:36 |
: He already has 27 in under 400 PA this year
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| 4:36 |
: Carson Kelly a viable option next couple years at C?
|
| 4:36 |
: Better than viable
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| 4:37 |
: One of the best
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| 4:37 |
: Which of these back end guys can I trust down the stretch? Mitch Keller. Canning. Heaney, Caleb Smith. Maeda. Gibson. Woodruff. Montgomery
|
| 4:37 |
: You can’t trust any of them
|
| 4:37 |
: But Smith and Gibson are the best of the bunch
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| 4:37 |
: Woodruff is the wild card
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| 4:37 |
: I’m not up to date on his progress
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| 4:37 |
: Would you cut a $6 Jose Martinez in an Otto fangraphs points league at this time?
|
| 4:37 |
: Yes
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| 4:38 |
: Where you would rank Josh Rojas rest of season compared to Didi Gregorious, Semien, or Mondesi? Semien and Mondesi seem like no brainers over Rojas so I’m more interested compared to Gregorious especially when they have the same keeper value.
|
| 4:38 |
: As he’s played just one game, I have to put Rojas distantly last on that list
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| 4:39 |
: Let’s go back to the Aquino or Eloy question real quick wrt this Rojas or Didi question
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| 4:39 |
: Rojas, like Aquino, is probably more likely than not to never accrue 1000 PA. But, in the scenarios where he does, he’s likely to be a very meaningful fantasy contributor.
|
| 4:40 |
: So, for somebody like me, this question is a trap
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| 4:40 |
: There’s an answer I MUST give because it’s simple probability
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| 4:40 |
: But there’s also the scenarios where I look foolish.
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| 4:41 |
: I guess my point is – the upside for both Aquino and Rojas is very visible. It’s easy to describe how and why they might succeed.
|
| 4:42 |
: So my preference for Eloy and Didi shouldn’t be construed as not liking Aquino and Rojas. It’s just a simple application of historical trends
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| 4:42 |
: Think he is out of the woods from recent struggles or will he have some blow-ups rest of the way?
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| 4:42 |
: Seems he’s going to be a little volatile ROS
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| 4:43 |
: Promise it’s not a trap. I was looking for upside in keeper leagues (I know you said less keeper questions). Mondesi and Semien are who I would keep over gregorious and would swap in Rojas for an ROS and future upside play.
|
| 4:43 |
: Well, I could see going Rojas if you need SBs
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| 4:43 |
: How likely is Lance Lynn to continue his success?
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| 4:43 |
: Lance Lynn is an every-five-days look in the mirror at my personal failure
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| 4:44 |
: I don’t understand why hitters aren’t hitting him
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| 4:44 |
: But they aren’t, and we’re at the point where I’m ready to shrug it off
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| 4:44 |
: It’s working. I prefer to understand *why* it’s working, but that’s not necessary
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| 4:44 |
: Gotta watch where guys hit too… rojas batted 6th where tauchman hits 9th… berti has batted 2nd some… there could be a lot more ABs depending on where they bat
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| 4:44 |
: Severino isn’t worth a roster spot when he comes back in the bullpen, is he? (2 keeper league)
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| 4:44 |
: Not as a reliever, no
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| 4:45 |
: Brian Anderson, Renato Nunez, or neither?
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| 4:45 |
: I currently own Grandal in dynasty. Carson Kelly is available, is it reasonable to carry two catchers? I like what Kelly has to offer. I’d be dropping Isan Diaz, Didi or Maeda for him.
|
| 4:45 |
: Temporarily yes, that’s fine
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| 4:45 |
: I didn’t mean to click Feddy’s question. I don’t have enough context to answer.
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| 4:45 |
: They’re both fringe for 12-team mixed with CI
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| 4:45 |
: Re: the Lynn comment…kind of how I feel with Wade Miley this year. Like how is he doing it?
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| 4:46 |
: I have some insight into Miley. He built a better cutter last season
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| 4:46 |
: And he’s kept using it.
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| 4:46 |
: The Astros generally put out a strong infield defense which is helping with his BABIP
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| 4:47 |
: do people place too much value on planning for next year in 12-team mixed keepers? a friend turned down a win-now trade (Wood and Wheeleer, 2 starts each for Giolito, 1 start) that would really help him in the playoffs. our waiver wire had Giolito, Minor, Lynn, Odorizzi and Boyd on it to start the year, among others.
|
| 4:47 |
: Yea, probably
|
| 4:47 |
: I could see selling yourself on Giolito the Ace
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| 4:47 |
: But, that’s not a percentage play
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| 4:47 |
: Will Smith or Carson Kelly next 3 years?
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| 4:48 |
: I’m going to say Kelly because the Dodgers are going to have Keibert jumping in the mix next year.
|
| 4:48 |
: What about in terms of profile and pedigree? I’m considering dropping gregorious for him as I mostly play semien and have mondesi on the mend.
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| 4:48 |
: Well, Rojas as no pedigree to speak of…
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| 4:49 |
: The profile looks like Semien with more SBs
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| 4:50 |
: Drop Luis Robert or a quickly fading (injured but playing) Domingo Santana in a deep mixed redraft 5×5 roto league?
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| 4:50 |
: I’d be surprised if the White Sox promote Robert
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| 4:50 |
: They only promoted Eloy to start the season because he signed an extension
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| 4:50 |
: They’ll punt Robert back into 2020
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| 4:51 |
: And frankly, it’s not like he’s a must-promote player. His batting profile is all kinds of early career Javy Baez
|
| 4:51 |
: Including an over 20% SwStr% at Triple-A (hint: that’s bad!)
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| 4:51 |
: Sorry to ask a keeper question, but in my two keeper league, I have Acuna as my first keeper, and I’m trying to decide between bregman and verlander for the second one. What do you think?
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| 4:51 |
: Bregman
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| 4:52 |
: That’s two perennial first rounders
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| 4:52 |
: The concept of a 2 keeper league is confusing to me
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| 4:53 |
: It just seems like an excuse for a couple sharks to start with an ace in their hand
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| 4:53 |
: How deep of prospects would you target in a deep dynasty? Luis Matos seems like he could be one of those surprise international guys to rule fantasy in 3 years. Do you track guys like this and do you encourage snagging them in deep dynasty?
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| 4:53 |
: I have a share of Matos in a 25-team league and very nearly traded Paxton for a package headlined by him
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| 4:54 |
: So yes, in deep dynasty, I’m absolutely digging for pop up international guys
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| 4:54 |
: Though my personal skill set is in finding Rojas and Aquino types
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| 4:54 |
: Rowdy Tellez just got called up after a scorching stint in AAA. Think he regains his mojo? Rowdy or Mike Ford?
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| 4:55 |
: That’s a push for me. I like Fords traits more, but I’m not sure he’ll play as much. Especially if Gleyber’s random core pain is gone
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| 4:55 |
: who hits more dingers ROS Harper, Soler, or Aquino?
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| 4:55 |
: Soler seems like the safest bet. I wanna say Aquino though
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| 4:55 |
: any chance one of gallo or stanton provide any value for playoffs?
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| 4:55 |
: If your playoffs start late, maybe
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| 4:56 |
: But they’re tracking for mid-September returns
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| 4:56 |
: Possibly a little earlier
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| 4:56 |
: Which of the Braves young starters do you expect to be in the rotation next year? Soroka-Fried-Ian Anderson seem like locks, but a lot of uncertainty after that
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| 4:56 |
: Soroka is the only lock for me
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| 4:56 |
: Is Khris Davis droppable at this point? Or is there still hope?
|
| 4:56 |
: In shallow formats, definitely
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| 4:56 |
: Has been for a while
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| 4:57 |
: Jesus Sanchez another Marlins prospect steal or just a regular OF of the future?
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| 4:57 |
: High volatility OFer
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| 4:57 |
: I think the median outcome is rather Nick Wiliams-like
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| 4:57 |
: You keep looking at him and wondering why the results aren’t better
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| 4:58 |
: He has all kinds of Face, and I think that’s holding up his prospect status a tad
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| 4:58 |
: That said, I only got one look at him while he was in Durham, and there were doggos in the park
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| 4:59 |
: Is he just a product of the ball or do you expect his production to continue the next few years?
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| 4:59 |
: Little of both I suspect
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| 4:59 |
: are you a big believer in gavin lux? pretty insane minor league numbers right now
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| 4:59 |
: Yea, he’s considered a top 10 prospect in dynasty leagues
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| 4:59 |
: Small rosters have only 3 spots for Donaldson, Harper, Ozuna, and Vlad on a daily basis while chasing Rbi/HR/Slug. Are you playing pitcher matchups or sitting Vlad in all but the extreme cases like @SF?
|
| 5:00 |
: Matchup game
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| 5:01 |
: Harper sits vs tough LHP, Donaldson against tough RHP, Vlad is in more often than not imo
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| 5:01 |
: Ozuna would be my short straw if all 4 have good matchups
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| 5:01 |
: any thoughts on my fantasy outlook?
|
| 5:01 |
: Not yet
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| 5:01 |
: It’s been an encouraging season
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| 5:01 |
: The outlook was purely real world + SBs prior to this year
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| 5:01 |
: Now there’s a little hope he can help us in our categories too
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| 5:02 |
: He’s still a defense first prospect. Might get to be the Kiermaier who was promised. Rather this always injured version
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| 5:03 |
: One concerning detail, despite 60-70 grade speed, he is only 8-for-19 on the season
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| 5:03 |
: And he was 7-for-15 last year
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| 5:04 |
: I have a share in a 25-team league and I anticipate a lot of hemming and hawing over what to do with him
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| 5:04 |
: Ever have your finger on a button to add a guy and then talk yourself out of it before someone else does and he goes on a tear? Slow. Death. (Aquino)
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| 5:04 |
: Worse, I’ll have a move locked, go to confirm with my co-owner, then forget about it
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| 5:05 |
: Lost Urshela and VanMeter that way in a 20-team dynasty
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| 5:05 |
: Wound up paying JD Davis and Doolittle for VM and Rojas (and Solak and Ornelas)
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| 5:05 |
: Too many “ands”
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| 5:05 |
: And it’s time to wrap up!
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| 5:05 |
: RE Harper vs LHP, he has pretty strong reverse splits this year and especially for HR
|
| 5:06 |
: We have larger samples than that to use
|
| 5:06 |
: And I did say tough LHP
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| 5:06 |
: He’s mostly faced dogshite
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| 5:06 |
: Name a good LHP in the NL East besides Corbin
|
| 5:06 |
: I’m not going to wait
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| 5:07 |
: I guess Caleb Smith is “good.” I keep forgetting 4.00 ERA talent is good now.
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| 5:07 |
: Jerry Dipoto acquired me because he knows I will mash!
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| 5:07 |
: Starting pitching is at a premium in my 16 team H2H. Trade deadline just passed. Any guys I should stash on my minors roster that might get called up? I’ve got Trey Supak and James Marvel so far.
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| 5:07 |
: Webb in SF
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| 5:07 |
: Logan Webb
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| 5:08 |
: Triple-A debut was a 7-inning gem
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| 5:08 |
: They’re only like 5 back for the 2nd WC so they have some incentive to use their best guys
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| 5:09 |
: Following up – My league is deep 12 team dynasty league. So adding Carson Kelly would help with future C as Grandal is only getting older and seemed to slow down. I’m competing this year, so not sure I’d want to drop Maeda. Isan Diaz seems like a young intriguing player.
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| 5:09 |
: If it’s a 1 catcher league, I wouldn’t fuss about having a keeper C on hand
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| 5:09 |
: Grandal himself is good for a couple years yet
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| 5:09 |
: On that note, I think it’s time to close the doors
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| 5:10 |
: Thanks for participate in the Josh Rojas hour
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| 5:10 |
: Put $10 on him, winning bid was $11 #regrets
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| 5:10 |
: Who is your biggest SP and Hitter disappointment this year?
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| 5:10 |
: Let’s play it out
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| 5:10 |
: Thoughts on Phil Ervin? I’ve been hanging on to him since the Puig trade. Playing time just hasn’t been there yet though.
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| 5:10 |
: Surpassed by Aquino.
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