Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7/23/2019

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few moments.

Nathan: I’m on the cusp. Should I go for it?

Brad Johnson: I’m generally pro always going for it. But then sometimes I don’t follow my own advice.

Al Gone Quinn: So you think a $7 Jasson Dominguez is too expensive, based on your Discord forum comment? The man has 2 S’s in his name. Worth the money.

Brad Johnson: This is specifically related to ottoneu where any prospect over $1 is questionable.

Brad Johnson: Dominguez is a years and years from the majors

Brad Johnson: That’s a roster spot and an average about $9 over 4 years before he reaches the majors – at the earliest

Brad Johnson: You can do more for yourself with Ryne Stanek

I’mTorn: $30 Cole for $1 Yordan and $1 N. Lowe in Ottoneu 4×4?  Both teams are gunning for 2020, so it’s a question of value/surplus.

Brad Johnson: I’d go for the cheap bats in this one

Laughten Smith: Who’s the better C2 ros: Chance Sisco, Tom Murphy, or Mauer-with-Power “Matt” Wieters?

Brad Johnson: I like Murphy atm

Al Gone Quinn: Where does Ottoneu FGpts rank in terms of playing formats/websites that you play fantasy baseball in?

Brad Johnson: It’s one of my favorites and not just because it’s associated with FanGraphs

Brad Johnson: It’s a tight dynasty-lite format with a full community playing the exact same game (or one of about 5 variants to be precise)

Brad Johnson: By comparison, the larger dynasty scene has such a wide range of concepts that my league is probably dissimilar to your league.

Snomby Tombers: What is the better short term play: Travis Shaw, Josh Naylor or literally anyone else on the wire with the chance at playing time?

Brad Johnson: Short term? I’d have to lean to somebody else

Brad Johnson: I think I’d take Shaw over Naylor since the latter basically needs at least one injury ahead of him for even semi-regular play.

Kelly: Favorite speculative trade deadline saves add?

Brad Johnson: I think probably Aaron Bummer

Gramps: Austin Riley: Hold or drop?

Gramps: Nate Lowe: Hold or drop?

Brad Johnson: Gonna need a lot more context

K: Chris Archer has ditched his 2-seamer and put up pretty good results in his past two starts. Anything to see here?

Brad Johnson: Enough to pay attention, but I wouldn’t go back to buying in. He’s still probably Just A Guy: Namebrand Edition

Matt: How do I calculate wRC+ over the course of multiple seasons for a player? I’m trying to figure out just how much of an effect Coors has had on specific Rockies players over the years, but I’m hitting a dead end here.

Chris: Is there a way to calculate wRC+ over multiple seasons for a player?

Brad Johnson: What are the odds these are actually different people?

Brad Johnson: I don’t see why not, but it would require some heavy lifting

Brad Johnson: I’m not precisely sure how offhand

Brad Johnson: I think you would turn whatever period you’re looking at into one “season” then calculate wRC+ for every player

Brad Johnson: Or if “good enough” is, uh, good enough, just put yearly wRC+s as the numerator with PA as the denom then average the years.

Phil: Who should I pick up – Franmil, B Reynolds, or C Walker? 12 team H2H 6×6 with OBP instead of average, and hitter K’s.

Brad Johnson: Unless you need HR, I’d go Reynolds right now

Matt: Haha this is incredible

Not Matt or Chris: How do you find wRC+ over more than one season for a player?

Matt: Chris is actually who I am working on this project with lol thank you for the help!

zoozoo: Who will throw more September innings – Soroka or Paddack?

Brad Johnson: Soroka is on a playoff team, so…

Woah Nellie: Re: wRC+ over multiple season, use the FanGraphs Splits Tool.  Here’s Charlie Blackmon over 2018-2019:  https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=7859&position=OF&sp…

Brad Johnson: See, I don’t even know about everything we offer (I don’t really have a use case for multi-year wRC+)

Brad Johnson: Actually, I only really use wRC+ to say – hey, that guy is 20% better than league average

Sandy Ravage: Down by 1000ish points in Ottoneu points to the 1st place team, but I really like my squad. Too far out or should I try to make a run?

Brad Johnson: Take a peek at the IP race

Brad Johnson: How many do you have in hand

Brad Johnson: For example, I’m trailing Sheryl Ring 11970 to 11252 in FG Staff 2

Brad Johnson: But she’s thrown 158 more innings than me

Brad Johnson: I’m getting 4.91 pts/IP

Brad Johnson: So call it 4.5 * 158 = 711 points in hand

Brad Johnson: which means we’re basically tied right now

Erik Guy: In a keeper league with 3 year contracts.  A trade just passed last week that I felt was extremely lopsided, for the third place team making a push for victory.  The deal was Strasburg (1), deGrom (1), Bregman (1), Betts (1), J.D. Martinez (1) & Touki Touissant (3) for Tatis (3).  I felt this was egregiously lopsided and compromised our league’s integrity because so.  First what are your thoughts on the fairness of this trade, and second, what are your thoughts on league rules to keep them in check in your leagues?  I realize once you start mandating what is fair and proper value, that becomes a slippery slope, but interested in your thoughts.

Brad Johnson: This is a common keeper league problem. The guy who took Tatis is looking at a bunch of expiring assets and wants the best possible asset before they evaporate

Brad Johnson: The guy getting the bounty probably correctly saw this and sold the idea that Tatis was only available for everything

Brad Johnson: In truth, he probably could have stopped at something like Betts, deGrom, and JDM then got a second big piece for Breg and Strasburg

Gramps: Can you please put Scherzer/Jimenez vs Robles/Mallex (non-keeper 20 team deep league) to a vote? That would be amazing thanks!

Brad Johnson: I can

Brad Johnson:

Brad Johnson: I’ll add that there is an easy correct answer in a vacuum, but the skill sets of Robles and Mallex could produce a LOT of points in the right situation

Gramps: (the league counts QS and OBP)

Matt: In response to Woah Nellie, the problem I’m running into is that there is no splits option on FanGraphs for Dante Bichette.

Liam: Is Wander Franco worth keeping for a round 18 pick (22 total rounds)? 2020 Price: round 16. 2021: round 12. 2022: Round 8. 2023: Round 4. 2024: Round 1

Brad Johnson: I assume you have to cut somebody else to keep him?

Brad Johnson: Might depend on league depth

Brad Johnson: Franco is pretty special though, we’ll probably see him regularly by 2021

captain sparks: you know what bothers me? when someone picks up the flavor of the week off the wire and then immediately updates his trade block to include said player. no one wants him or we would have bid on him ourselves, frank!

Brad Johnson: yea Frank!

Gramps: It’s Joe Jimenez — my bad!!

Brad Johnson: Ahaha, I almost put Ubaldo as a joke

Brad Johnson:

Brad Johnson: This is a little less nutty. It’s easier to see the path for Mallex/Robles to produce more points than Scherzer ROS

Brad Johnson: It really is all about the points. For most people, the answer is probably Scherzer. But not everybody. And there’s some elevated injury risk too.

Jett : Thanks for the chat, Brad. Is Nate Lowe a long-term asset in an OPS-heavy sim League? Do you see him producing .820 + for the next 3-4 seasons?

Brad Johnson: If it’s OOTP, my experiences with Lowe is that he sucks

Woah Nellie: Brad: ex ante, what were your odds that Dante Bichette would come up during today’s chat?

Brad Johnson: Roughly 1:8

Brad Johnson: It’s not a long stretch from anything Blue Jays to Bo Bichette to Dante

Golden Meadows: Is the bloom off the Brosseau rose in AL Only? Or does the Yandy injury keep him a dude?

Brad Johnson: I mean, he’s not really a MLBer in my opinion, and the Rays do have Duffy and Robertson returning soon.

Brad Johnson: But for at least a handful more days, he seemingly has a role.

bruno: Do you think Oliver Drake will stay in mix for Holds/Saves for TB?

Brad Johnson: Please don’t make me think about the Rays bullpen

captain sparks: can you put up a late lunch poll for me: burger or burrito?

Brad Johnson: I have been thanked on multiple occasions for not making this Brad Johnson Food/Beer Chat

Brad Johnson: I don’t actually read chats, but my understanding is it’s common to talk about not baseball (and I’m not referring only to FG chats)

bruno: Has Tyler Beede become more than a streamer option for you in a 12 teamer?

Brad Johnson: Are you asking if “Tyler Beede is 12-team mixed relevant” the answer is yes!

Brad Johnson: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/brad-johnsons-10-bold-predictions-for-20…

Brad Johnson: Though, I’d lean towards streaming him still on account of the trash offense.

Fari Z.: If you had a fantasy team made up entirely of SFG players, would you be buying or selling at the deadline? Asking for a friend.

Brad Johnson: Hard selling. Not a lot you can sell in fantasy though. MadBum, Smith, and maybe Shark or Belt?

Brad Johnson: Nobody is buying Dickerson

Brad Johnson: And the rest of them are terrible.

Brad Johnson: I’m aware of their recent run production btw. Color me unimpressed

Roger: Buying some positive Peraza regression? If not ROS then next year?

Brad Johnson: Sure. Some.

Sam I Am: How much faith does the community really have that Royce Lewis will be just fine? Going on a full season of struggles in A ball isn’t exactly encouraging. Will he right the ship?

Brad Johnson: At this stage, I’m listening to the scouts who insist he’s still a top 30 guy at least.

Brad Johnson: He may no longer be that elite top 5 type though

Guest: My buddies are thinking that if they braves get Stroman, they beat the dodgers in a series. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: If Marcus Stroman is somehow supposed to be your answer to the Dodgers, you’re asking the wrong questions

Brad Johnson: The Dodgers MASH ground ball pitchers. O/U 1.80 HR/9 for Stroman against them.

Sam: If the braves get Stroman, do they beat the dodgers in a series? I say no, friends say yes

Brad Johnson: I guess I misclicked. See above.

Woah Nellie: Re Bichette:  I encourage everyone here to read Swydan’s 2012 piece on his 1999 season, in which he hit 34 HR and .298/.354/.541, good for a .379 wOBA (second-highest of his career), which was good for NEGATIVE 2.1 WAR!

Matt W: CarMart can’t hang on to the closers job giving up this many runs, right?

Brad Johnson: Seemingly no

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Nate Lowe not starting again today — do you think his ride is over or…

Brad Johnson: They have some complicated roster decisions to make soon

Brad Johnson: The easiest would be to demote Lowe.

Brad Johnson: But it’s probably true he’s about a win better than Choi ROS

Brad Johnson: So they might cut Choi

Brad Johnson: We’ll see how it all shakes out

Brad Johnson: Maybe they find the phantom IL instead

Blue Jaded: ROS in a 12 teamer..Nate Lowe or Biggio?

Jay Bruce is not afraid: ROS: Austin Nola or Nate Lowe?

Brad Johnson: Lowe is a better player than Biggio, but I’d go with the latter due to fairly certain playing time

Brad Johnson: Austin Nola isn’t anything

Woah Nellie: Brad, do you really want to link to that predictions piece where your top prediction is that Dom Smith would be the best Mets 1B?  He’s been more than solid, but JEEZ.

Brad Johnson: Eh, they’re mostly supposed to fail spectacularly

Brad Johnson: If they all look plausible, then I did it wrong

Gramps: Rotoworld is really pushing Matt Duffy — am I missing something, fantasy-wise?

Brad Johnson: I mean, he’s a nice high average bat who could hit near the top of the lineup

Brad Johnson: But I tend to agree there isn’t a lot of room for fuss

frankiebones: Getting the feeling nobody at this site has any idea how to really value Ohtani going into 2020, as I’ve asked the same question at every chat for a month and nobody has even tried to answer it!

Brad Johnson: You’re probably not getting answered because 1. It’s premature since he’s barely even throwing yet and 2. there’s way too much missing context.

Pat G: Keep forever dynasty, what sort of SP would you need to get to move Gavin Lux right now?

Brad Johnson: Maybe my goto Charlie Morton

HappyFunBall: So the Renfroe and Beede bold predictions look decent, and the Anibal one isn’t yet impossible. The rest tho …

Brad Johnson: 25% accuracy is excellent for Boldings

Brad Johnson: Also, Adam Eaton is quite good for a specific purpose

Brad Johnson: He’s perhaps the most underappreciated player this year.

Brad Johnson: And there was at least some useful signal in the Smith, Pressly, and Perez picks.

Pat G: What are we doing with guys like Reyes, Honeywell in keep forever dynasty? Is there any way to get back value in a trade or is this a hold situation?

Brad Johnson: Probably stuck holding

AC: Is Pablo Lopez worth stashing or is either Plesac or Quantrill just as good an option already?

Brad Johnson: I might like Plesac about as much

Brad Johnson: I’d stay away from Quantrill

Greg: Gallo or Kepler ROS Roto OBP and SLG

Brad Johnson: Gallo for me

Brad Johnson: by a lot

Patrick: I think CMart will be fine as long as he’s not being asked to pitched 4 games a week. They’ve had a string of tight games, they need to give him a few days off.

Brad Johnson: Last year, he was pretty consistently terrible whenever working multiple days in a row

Jimmy: Gallegos have a chance to take the closers job in STL?

Brad Johnson: Yes, a chance.

MRK: I have $390 of $400 allocated to 38 players in my ottoneu league. there’s a guy up for auction that i’d like to have at $3 – definitely now, maybe as a keeper. Is there a compelling reason not to simply bid $4 1) to better ensure I win the bid and 2) because the same $2 penalty is applied to $3 and $4 cuts. Thanks

Brad Johnson: No, go for it

zoozoo: If Tatis regresses moderately ROS is he a first-rounder in redraft 2020?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he’s a first rounder in any circumstance

Brad Johnson: well, maybe in 15 or 20 teamers

Brad Johnson: but there’s no chance he’s a top 12 projection

Dinelson: Any chance Eovaldi still becomes the closer?

Brad Johnson: Did I miss something?

Brad Johnson: You mean the bad outing?

Brad Johnson: I think he’s made the path to saves a little longer than it needed to be

Brad Johnson: But a couple sharp outings will put him back in the conversation

zoozoo: If Vlad doesn’t start mashing the ball ROS, where does he get drafted next year?

Brad Johnson: Probably around where he was picked this year

frankiebones: Neither of your reasons re: lack of Ohtani responses actually apply to my question, so…. no worries. I give up.

Brad Johnson: Uh, would you prefer “he’s anywhere from top 40 stud to a UTIL-only platoon bat?”

Brad Johnson: It’s not possible to narrow it down more until we have more info

Brad Johnson: And your league type informs that significantly

Brad Johnson: So, I reject your rejection

Golden Meadows: RE: Nate Lowe – I doubt he starts much against lefties barring even more injuries, no?

Brad Johnson: Seems right

Ben: I posted 3 times – is this getting through?

Brad Johnson: Hi Ben, all I see is this and a question about Andujar

Ben: Where should I value andujar  as a keeper? I may be between him (17th rd) Caleb smith(20) and Woodruff(20)

Brad Johnson: I would keep one of the pitchers

Brad Johnson: I’m very convinced Urshela is MUCH better than Andujar

Not my year: Manuel Margot figuring things out? Chance to provide some sneaky value ROS now that Myers appears to be out of the CF mix? Other options: McMahon, Canha, Dickerson, Dozier

Brad Johnson: Margot is always a solid sneaky value bet

Brad Johnson: Especially if you can find some weak batteries to exploit

Brad Johnson: I like a healthy second half Dozier too

Brad Johnson: Assuming that’s Brian

Dinelson: Any thoughts on Urquidy? His minor league #s look very solid.

Brad Johnson: He’s an interesting flier.

Brad Johnson: You might get Josh James or you might get Chuck James

Dan: What is Ketel Marte now?

Brad Johnson: I’m inclined to agree with the ~113 wRC+ projection for him.

Brad Johnson: And like a 22 HR pace

Brad Johnson: He’s extremely athletic and has made incremental improvements throughout his career.

Brad Johnson: So there’s some superstar possibility

Brad Johnson: This breakout feels… “juicy”

Brad Johnson: (in this case, the baseball)

Brad Johnson: Gonna wrap up, I have rosters to set before going out

LR: After a trade, holding an OF of Harper, Brantley, Verdugo, Benintendi, Pollock, Riley and Renfroe. Who should go via trade?

Brad Johnson: Probably Benintendi, Riley, or Renfroe

Brad Johnson: But you should shop to find out what pieces return something you need

Nobse: Are you buying shares of Bumgarner right now? He’s turned it on lately but he’s been a lot less effective outside of AT&Oracle … where all of his future games might soon be played

Brad Johnson: I bought one share

Brad Johnson: Purely because I needed pitching and couldn’t afford to be picky

Sicnarf Loopstok: Are we seeing the end of Matt Carpenter as a fantasy asset?

Brad Johnson: It’s possible, but I tend to believe he’ll rebound

Brad Johnson: While there are some red flags in his batting line this year, there’s also still a lot to like

Vlad Sr: Just want to remind everyone that my little Vlad is still going to be a beast. But… Tatis Jr will be a better roto player due to SB.

Brad Johnson: We’ll see. Vladito could be something like peak Miggy Cab with more HR

Dennis Quaid from The Rookie: Asher Wojciechowski with a Jake Arrieta type breakout?

Brad Johnson: Might be something to the strikeouts. He’s still allowing copious hard, fly ball contact which is… a bad thing

Ryan: How do you value Mondesi in FG PTS? how stark a contrast?

Brad Johnson: He’s pretty bland

Brad Johnson: Like a $10 guy or so

Trey Anastasio: probably looking to sell in an AL only.  who do you like better the next 2 years?  Domingo German at $4 or Frankie Montas at $1?

Brad Johnson: I think I like Montas more

Risen Reef: Dom Smith going to get enough ros ab to help my team?

Brad Johnson: Let’s keep an eye on the deadline. He might be traded.

Jake: Do you see Travis Shaw getting semi-regular or regular ABs in Aug/Sept ?

Brad Johnson: I think it’s possible

Brad Johnson: But I wouldn’t be putting my hopes and dreams in him

Brad Johnson: Alrighty gg folks