Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/8/2018

Darvish’s Gross Yellow Phlegm: In a 10-team mixed keeper total bases and OBP league, would you sooner roster Kemp, Leonys Martin, Piscotty, Soler, or Franchy over Dahl? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Dahl isn’t playing very consistently which is an issue in 10-team. You need your guys active unless you’re using them as a platoon bat

Brad Johnson: Those options aren’t very enticing. I think I like Martin most. Or better yet, offer Dahl for Dex Fowler.

zurzles: At what point do I switch my Senzel hold with Vlad Jr?

Brad Johnson: Now? Depends on the rules.

Brad Johnson: Oh, I should probably say hello to everyone

Brad Johnson: Hi everyone

Brad Johnson: It’s chat time.

Brad Johnson: If you’re looking for 2018 production, Senzel remains the guy to own

Brad Johnson: If you’re looking for a prime keeper, that’s Vladito

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t expect much from him – if anything – this season

Vegan Man!: Would you be comfortable giving Albies for Ohtani in a 12 team h2h if you had Kinsler / Villar to rotate at 2B? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Not really. I assume this isn’t Yahoo and you can at least bat Ohtani?

Brad Johnson: I do like Ohtani, but your backups are brittle assets

Vegan Man!: Blackmon or Machado and Wade Davis in a 12 team roto? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: As much as I love Blackmon, probably have to take the closer with a comparably talented hitter

Brad Johnson: Depends on the opportunity cost of that extra roster spot

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Traded Tanaka and Reynaldo to get JD Martinez. How did I do?

Brad Johnson: HEIST

Steve: Hi Brad.  In a league with both avg & obp would you drop Nunez for any of Carpenter, Kingery or Candelario?  Thank you.

Brad Johnson: I prefer Carpenter

Fish that hates Phish: What should I do with Stroman? Is he worth holding on t? Should I start him today? I want to believe.

Brad Johnson: I’m stashing him for now

Vegan Man!: What tier of SP would you be comfortable trading Tatis for in a 14 team dynasty points league? Keuchel too little of a return? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Ugh, I answered two of yours already.

Brad Johnson: !!!

Brad Johnson: I hate the idea of trading Tatis for a pitcher…

Brad Johnson: that said, if you need it, then Keuchel’s asset class is probably about correct for a relatively shallow dynasty

Brad Johnson: Keuchel specifically has some issues in his profile

Mr. Gibby: BRAD!!! you da man. You starting Castillo today in a QS league? he looked better in his last outing and was a bit unlucky early on. Velo seems to be ticking back…

Brad Johnson: I’m not, but I am considering him for DFS GPPs

Brad Johnson: One of these days, the strikeouts and run prevention are going to be simultaneous

Dan: should i begin to worry about anthony rizzo

Brad Johnson: Nah. I had a reader present some data showing reduced pull power going back to the middle of last season, but I’m not really seeing any reason not to bank on regression

Ichiro: How’d I do in a H2H keep forever…gave up Altuve/Myers/Mejia for Haniger/ C Seager/ Juan Soto?! Please tell me that Soto bill be a beast as his line shows this season.

Brad Johnson: Soto is looking pretty exceptional. I managed to trade Willie Calhoun to clear a NA spot for him in a shallow league

Brad Johnson: As for your trade, that’s still quite the price to pay

Brad Johnson: Either side could win in the end

Brad Johnson: There’s a lot going on

Osuna Rather than Olata: Who’s your pick for Osuna’s fill-in in TOR?

Brad Johnson: I gotta be honest, I’m a little underprepared for this one.

Brad Johnson: It was such a rock steady situation

Brad Johnson: Literally all of their relievers are candidates. Oh, Tepera, Barnes, Axford, and Clippard

Brad Johnson: Probably not Loup or Petricka

Brad Johnson: That’s everyone, right?

Brad Johnson: Consider this my expert analysis on the topic – stash whoever you like best and hope you wind up with the winning ticket

Andrew: I was offered EE for Story in a 6×6 OBP league. After Seager’s injury my only other SS option is Peraza. I have Abreu and Belt for 1b options. Still worth it?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: Story is better than EE anyway. Unless you really need to redistribute SB to HR

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Greg Polanco, Manny Margot, Ian Happ, and Matt Davidson were all dropped this week. Who of that group would you prioritize? (5×5 OBP)

Brad Johnson: Polanco then Margot

Slamboni: AL only 10 tm dynasty. In win now mode, should I trade Bo Bichette, Domingo German, Mallex Smith, Greg Bird and Gleyber Torres for Semien, Mookie and some spare RPs for holds?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Basically any price for Betts is acceptable as long as you’re still fielding a competitive roster

Brad Johnson: Those are all good but expendable parts.

Eric: I had Altuve, Nunez, and Chris Taylor as my main sources of steals.  They have 3 steals collectively.  Am I screwed?

Brad Johnson: I have Altuve and Taylor in a couple leagues. It’s frustrating.

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure Taylor is going to do much, but Altuve should start running at some point.

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Better keeper league stash: Eloy or Tatis Jr.?

Brad Johnson: Tatis is the better talent, Eloy is closer.

Brad Johnson: And they’re similar enough that preferring Eloy’s proximity is fine

Mike: Someone offered me Donaldson and Devers for Lowrie. Im pretty happy.

Brad Johnson: Ha. I love Lowrie, but I’m not offering either of them alone… Beware the veto

Ichiro: How would you rank the following as dynasty stash based on future potential….Dustin Fowler, Luis Urias, Jalen Beeks, Justus Sheffield. Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Just take Urias, way way better than the rest

Big Tuna: With Altuve’s lack of power and no SBs to start the season, does it make sense to try and see if I can trade him for another elite player since I have JoRam to fill in at 2B?

Brad Johnson: It’s fine to shop, but you almost have to trick the other owner into coming up with the idea to target Altuve

Brad Johnson: Then you talk up how dumb it would be to sell low

Brad Johnson: And if you’re lucky, they’ll eventually buy at full price

Brad Johnson: If you go into it saying you’re shopping Altuve, you’re going to get offered Jed Lowrie.

Kakie Bryan: Any reason to hang on to Willie Calhoun as a stash while Senzel is still out there?

Brad Johnson: Senzel is better

Horton: Jack Flaherty or Nick Kingham who pitches more MLB innings in 2018?

Brad Johnson: Flaherty, I assume

Brad Johnson: He’s better

Guest: 10 tm keep 10 JD & Verlander or Devers Torres Manaea

Brad Johnson: Old guys side

You’re Killing Me Smalls: In a league with a 1500 inning cap, my offense is real solid, but i’m in dead last in ERA and WHIP, and in a sizable hole. My closers aren’t great and are hurting my ratios, and my starters are Clevinger, Greinke, R. Lopez, Mikolas, Bumgarner on DL, A. Sanchez, we field 9 P spots and have a relatively short bench. How do I come back from this? Do I run out a bunch of top middle relievers like Ottavino and C. Edwards, and and drop guys like Sanchez? Should I simply not start a lot of my starters aside from prime match ups?

Brad Johnson: This is a tough situation, but you can recover over the next 4+ months

Brad Johnson: You’re playing for middle of the pack with the ratios now. Diligent maintenance of your roster should get you there as other non-contenders fade.

Brad Johnson: You need to get the most out of your strengths

Brad Johnson: Since your ratios are busted, you need to outright win SV, K, and do well in W – that’s hard combination to pull off

Brad Johnson: Sweeping hitting stats is kinda necessary too.

Brad Johnson: It doesn’t hurt to squeeze in some of those relievers

Brad Johnson: But you need to somehow still pick up wins

Brad Johnson: Good luck!

Luck Dragons: Why does Gregory Polanco get so much respect? When are we all going to admit that he is what he is — a .250-.260 guy with 22-HR power? I can name 20 guys under 50% owned that can do that.

Brad Johnson: It’s the physical profile – kind of like Yasiel Puig

Brad Johnson: All it takes is a single light bulb to go off for him to turn into a monster

Brad Johnson: Winning a fantasy league is at least partially a function of getting more lucky studs than your rivals.

Brad Johnson: With a Polanco or Puig, the path is so obvious

Brad Johnson: It’s less apparent for a guy like Lowrie.

Jim Bob: What’s the deal with Shark? Velocity way down… is he hurt still? Worth holding in 12 / 14 team leagues? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Probably a hold in 14 team

Brad Johnson: You can cut him loose in 12 team if you see something better

Brad Johnson: I don’t have any insight beyond what you noted

Brad Johnson: He seems hurt

Travioli: Who turns it around first from my struggling outfield? Ian Happ or Dex Fowler?

Brad Johnson: Fowler

Ben: Want to drop one of Kingham, Caleb Smith, Soroka to enter the Toronto closer sweepstakes. Is ti worth it/which one do I drop?

Brad Johnson: Not sure of worth, but they’re all cuttable depending on league depth

45BlowsBillygoats: Better stash for this year and next…Raimel or O’Neil?

Brad Johnson: I think it’s O’Neill

Brad Johnson: The profile just has so much more utility

Brad Johnson: Think of Tapia as a higher floor option, although I don’t know that he’ll ever crack the lineup

Brad Johnson: He’s been a prospect since the Rockies had Brad Hawpe, right?

Brad Johnson: Feels like it.

Brad Johnson: O’Neill has an early-career Springer-like profile

Jim Bob: Archer and Brantley or Thor in a 12 team h2h? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Thor

Josh’s achy shoulder: Hearing mixed opinions about Donladson’s value going forward given the shoulder. Do you have any read on this situation?

Brad Johnson: It’s a shitty situation to get stuck in

Brad Johnson: If I own him, I’m saying it’s fine

Brad Johnson: If I’m the buyer, I’m asking for a very steep discount

Brad Johnson: I don’t have insight into the particular injury, but I did sell my dynasty share last year over injury concerns.

Brad Johnson: Was the major piece of a package for Betts (who I foolishly turned into Jose Altuve, Beltre, and Alonso over the winter)

Kyle: Better way to rebuild in a keeper if you are falling out of contention. Trade for an injured star (i.e. C Seager), just over pay for a star if you can with pieces you don’t necessarily need/won’t keep, or trying to build through top rated prospects?

Brad Johnson: I go for the stars and injured studs

Brad Johnson: Prospects are always overpriced in my leagues

Brad Johnson: There’s always a facsimile of the stud prospect du jour one layer deeper.

Brad Johnson: As I mentioned earlier, I traded Willie Calhoun last week out of my NA slot (Yahoo) then immediately replaced him with Juan Soto. Can rinse and repeat in a month.

Rock Kickass: I need steals and saves.   Is Machado/Cano for Trea Turner/Doolittle fair in a shallow ten team roto?

Brad Johnson: Sounds like you need my column Saves and Steals on Rotoworld. Mid-day every Wednesday 🙂

Brad Johnson: Swap seems viable if you have sufficient AVG, HR, and run production elsewhere.

Brad Johnson: Shallow formats throw “value” out the window

Brad Johnson: You just have to take the stats you need and hope you aren’t hemorrhaging too much value in the process. Since there’s so much good stuff on the wire, even losing a trade badly isn’t a problem so long as you didn’t help your rival too much

Willie hears ya Willie dont care: thinking of offering viscaino for schwarber. I have W. Davis, Allen and Ziegler for saves, but would like the HRs. What do you think? Thanks in advance!

Brad Johnson: Do it. That’s great value for Viz

Joey Boom Bats: Player A: .271/.347/.518 6 HRs / 3 SBs (23 y 8 m old).  Player B: .263/.359/.509 6 HRs / 4 SBs (22 y 11 m old). Player A is Franchy Cordero. Player B is Yoan Moncada.  The lack of Franchy respect is crazy.

Brad Johnson: Or put another way, the Moncada overrespect is nuts

Brad Johnson: So I had somebody offer me Moncada for Schoop, Kepler, and Taillon in a 20-team league with weird rules

Brad Johnson: I concluded Schoop is the better long term asset. Tried to counter with Kepler, Fisher, and Winker but it didn’t fly

Zach: Is Matt Carpenter broken, unlucky, or unlucky and broken?

Brad Johnson: More unlucky than anything

Brad Johnson: Probably needs a minor adjustment

Brad Johnson: Peripherals look fine-ish

Ham ‘n Mayo Smith: Is it worth dropping Byron Buxton for Franchy Cordero or Josh Reddick?  Cordero has upside and Reddick has beefy contact rates.  Buxton?  Apparently has migranes, a busted toe and a good glove…

Brad Johnson: That’s a bold drop. I feel like you could find a trade involving Buxton

Antwan: Any idea when Urias might be up in San Diego?

Brad Johnson: Shortstop

Brad Johnson: oh, I read “where”

Brad Johnson: And I thought it was a silly question

Brad Johnson: Anywhere from right after super-2 deadline to late April 2019

Josh: How optimistic are you on Greg Bird once he returns?  Is he worthy of a bench spot if my DL spots are filled if he’d be replacing someone like Mancini, Choo or Carlos Santana on my roster?

Brad Johnson: Go ahead and replace Mancini

Brad Johnson: He’s bland

Brad Johnson: Maybe Bird doesn’t hit, but he’s such a trendy name that you could massively profit from just one hot week

Dan: Do you think Junis has any back end SP value ROS in 12 team?

Brad Johnson: Definitely above that at this point

Bryan Price: How do I get a notification sent to my phone when Senzel gets called up

Brad Johnson: Rotoworld probably pushes their news blurbs

Brad Johnson: RotoBaller might too

MSW: Ken Jansen for Bumgarner? For Darvish? I’ve plenty of relievers and need pitching, even if that means waiting it out on the DL.

Brad Johnson: I’d pass on Darvish for now. I’m… worried

Brad Johnson: Looks fine for bumbum

54: Do you think we will see Odubel stealing bases again? Is he slowing down, or is it just his inefficiency on the basepaths and credible slugging has taken away his green light?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: The latter scenario

Brad Johnson: He’s just not somebody who should steal bases.

Brad Johnson: He might take 10 over a full season if he catches a matchup he likes

Anders: I never know what to make of Michael Brantley. Is he valuable down the line in anything other than AVG?

Brad Johnson: Sure, he’s a 5 category asset

Brad Johnson: There is value in any player who has average or better production in every category

Gay Bar Tourist: Thoughts on Kevin Pillar? xstats says he’s killing it but it looks like it’s all because of an increased line drive rate? Is that sustainable?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been burned on Pillar before. I need to remember he starts hot, roster him, then sell high

Brad Johnson: No expectation of sustained performance.

Raul Gillette: Jose Martinez + Mike Soroka for JD Martinez in a OBP dynasty league. What side you prefer now and going forward?

Brad Johnson: JDM JDM JDM

Ghost of Ned Yost: Was feeling bold traded Cole($24) Treinen($11) Meadows($3) for Kershaw($31) and Hand($6) in a 16 team dynasty. Ultimate sell high on Cole? Feeling slightly less confidant this morning tho I have extremely deep pitching so I think I will be fine provided Kershaw isn’t out for an extended amount of time.

Brad Johnson: Looks pretty tasty to me, but there’s definitely risk that you traded a top 5-10 SP for the tail end of a HoF career

Brad Johnson: We’re not really there yet (on either end), but it’s a possible outcome

Jim: Bregman and/or Dozier buy lows?

Brad Johnson: Dozier is performing better than usual…

Brad Johnson: He’s usually borderline unplayable until June/July

Brad Johnson: Buy low on both if such an option is available

CubFan: Does Vlad Jr come up this season? If so, when and how much FAAB to throw at him in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league? We start out with 100 units of FAAB.

Brad Johnson: I don’t think we’ll see him, but he could be used as a reinforcement if the Jays remain in contention

Brad Johnson: They’ll need to be bold to keep pace in the AL East

tacopocket: no offense to these trade offers but WOW.  archer/Bradley for thor??? was that offered?  click accept IMMEDIATELY.  i hate hate hate vetoes but Donaldson and devers for lowrie is vetoable.  maybe the worst trade I’ve ever seen

Brad Johnson: haha

Brad Johnson: The second one was especially egregious

Brad Johnson: That might be a rare time that I wouldn’t carry out my standing threat to immediately quit any league that vetoes one of my trades

Brad Johnson: Gotta know going in that it’s a risk

Brad Johnson: It’s kinda funny how the most lopsided trades are offered to YOU

Brad Johnson: Like when I get shit for fleecing somebody, it’s usually an unsolicited idea I insta-accepted.

54: who should I count on to replace Kyle’s Brother? Andrelton or Gleyber?

Brad Johnson: Both are quite excellent replacements

Brad Johnson: You want young upside or steady steady steady

45BlowsBillygoats: just traded Colome for an Osuna stash…how’d I do?

Brad Johnson: We’ll see

Brad Johnson: At least you don’t have Colome torpedoing your rates

54: King Felix or Drew Pomeranz, rest of season, who would you rather trot out every 5th day?

Brad Johnson: Pomeranz

Brad Johnson: There’s a chance he rebounds

Brad Johnson: Poor Felix was dethroned years ago

Jack82: Keeper  league….hold on with Willie Calhoun?  I bet also on Yordan Alvarez, Corbin Burnes, Soto and Robles. You think I ve some talent here? Woul YouTube please rank theese youngster?

Brad Johnson: This question kinda fell apart. I need to go on YouTube?

Brad Johnson: Or they need to come here?

Brad Johnson: I’m confused. I will say I like Soto the most following by Robles, Calhoun and the other pair(distantly)

Kakie Bryan: Should I be Domingo Santana after his non-terrible week? Sell for 50 cents if I can?

Brad Johnson: I would love to be Domingo Santana

Brad Johnson: That’s a personal dream of mine. To wake up one day and discover I’m actually Domingo Santana

Brad Johnson: I’d hang on

Brad Johnson: He’s poor man’s George Springer when he’s rolling

Brad Johnson: and Thames is gone for awhile

Tim the Tool Man Taylor: Worried at all with Paul Goldschimdt? Very unlike Goldy thus far.

Brad Johnson: Yes. I said going into the season that I thought he would transcend the humidor.

Brad Johnson: I’ve seen enough to say I was wrong

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll be a good fantasy asset RoS, but not a first or second round talent

Paul O’Neill : Everyone wants my Dee Gordon in a 12 team roto, keep 5 forever. He was the 6th rated player on ESPN Player Rater last year, and is 7th this year… We switch from AVG to OPS next year. What type of OF should I be looking for in return? JDM, Springer, Judge? Or is that aiming too high… Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Not aiming too high

Brad Johnson: If everybody wants a guy, hold him hostage

stan: sell or hold Giles? is he even the closer down in HOU?

Brad Johnson: hold

Brad Johnson: He’s lost the Houston CL job like 3 times since he’s arrived there

Brad Johnson: He’s always been back (and dominating) within a month

Brad Johnson: Just seems like he gets these one month slumps

LDS: Pivetta, Lucchesi, or Cahill?

Brad Johnson: Interesting batch of arms.

Brad Johnson: Cahill until he gets tired

Brad Johnson: But they’re all 12-team playable

Mr. Nor’easter: Positions aside, in a counting stats points league,  Morales or Healy?

Brad Johnson: Easy Healy. Pretty sure Morales is playing towards a DFA. They have better hitters who need DH time like Donaldson

Too many SP’s: With Chris Taylor on the verge of picking up SS eligibility, thinking about dealing Clevinger for him to add another bat and lineup flexibility.  Good value for Clev, especially since I have a lot of SP’s in that tier?

Brad Johnson: I like that

Brad Johnson: I’m worried about some of Clev’s peripherals

54: Chance Sisco or Austin Hedges rest of season?

Brad Johnson: Take a Chance on Sisco

Brad Johnson: Here, I found your puke

Patty V69: Quick take: Kershaw for AJ Pollock?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Pollock

Jay: Any hesitation to sell fairly high on Hosmer and Porcello? I need help in the OF.  Related question: Would you buy Benintendi or Bogaerts?

Brad Johnson: No and yes, either

Brad Johnson: Benintendi is probably cheaper

Anders: Just picked up Matt Adams post-tear. Play him and keep, or try to sell high?

Brad Johnson: Both?

Matt: What is your reasoning for not thinking Taylor will steal much this season?

Brad Johnson: He’s not really that fast. Last year was his most successful baserunning season as a 26-year-old

Brad Johnson: This year he’s 1-for-4

Luck Dragons: Carpenter 0/4 again today, I’m cutting him

54: Barreto, B Rodgers, Luis Urias. If you’re sitting on one guy to help your MI in 2018, who are you sitting on? (You’re trying to hatch them from an egg, obviously)

Brad Johnson: Urias is my egg of choice

Fernando Romero: I flew under the radars but i have top 30 sp ceiling….or not?

Brad Johnson: Not immediately, but you certainly look like a Carlos Martinez-quality pitcher

Brad Johnson: CMart needs a few years to really put it together

Brad Johnson: Could be the same with F-Rome

Arron: time to sell high on story, or is 30/30 a real possibility?

Brad Johnson: 30 SB feels unlikely

Brad Johnson: 30 HR feels likely

Brad Johnson: I bet big on modest improvements this year.

Brad Johnson: As shitty as he was last year, he was still a useful fantasy player

Brad Johnson: A not-shitty version of Story is a top 50 player. A good version is a third rounder

Khrush D: You like Kingery or Schoop more for today?

Brad Johnson: Schoop

JT: Do I start Gleyber or Tim Anderson?

Brad Johnson: Gleyber

Brad Johnson: I see no reason to think Anderson is any different than past season, with one exception

Brad Johnson: I do think we can bank on him stealing at a higher rate

Brad Johnson: But we’re still looking at a tiny AVG and OBP with 12-17 HR power

Allie: Puig vs Souza ROS?

Brad Johnson: Ooof

Brad Johnson: Mediocre

JT: Shaw or Chapman?

Brad Johnson: Chapman. Like ’em both

B. Ryce Hammers Luscious Locks: My gallo or his benitendi? H2H points league

Brad Johnson: Gallo unless you need +15 SB

Brad Johnson: And can give up 30 HR

Brad Johnson: Gallo has a very good chance to lead the league in HR

Baseballs R hard: I traded Jose Martinez for Conforto who wins, or is it a push?

Brad Johnson: I’d take Conforto

need for speed: Billy or Mallex

Brad Johnson: What’s your time frame

Brad Johnson: Mallex is better, but his playing time is less certain long term

Khrush D: Would you hold or drop Matt Chapman in a keeper if Senzel or Vladito were available?

Brad Johnson: Why would you consider dropping Chapman? Just because he’s been recently slumpy? He’s a stud

Domingo Santana: Do you think I’m playing hurt? Is there any chance I come back to 2017 form?

Brad Johnson: No I think you’re healthy

Brad Johnson: So let’s pause a second to consider guys like Chapman and Santana. We’re still in small sample land on the season, but we need to be patient with anybody who feels streaky

Brad Johnson: the other shoe will drop, whether it’s a good or bad streak

54: How do you prefer your eggs when they are not middle infield prospects and instead are served for breakfast- or late night at a diner?

Brad Johnson: Over easy with a bed of split sausage, bacon-fried peppers/onion, and, of course, the bacon.

Brad Johnson: I make that for breakfast roughly every other day

Patty V69: Kershaw or Pollock, standard 12tm-5×5 roto?

Brad Johnson: I answered this!

Sir: Looking to flip Story for a pitcher. Who should I target?

Brad Johnson: Thor?

Brad Johnson: Severino

Brad Johnson: Aim high

Matt: Currently banking on offensive production of Chapman, Jose Martinez, Bell, Hicks. Bell’s the short man if I gotta cut someone, right?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Ok, I need to set some DFS rosters then go mash some softballs. I’m subbing for my friend’s team tonight

Brad Johnson: Softball is super easy btw.

Brad Johnson: Thanks for playing folks