Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/29/2018

Brad Johnson: Hey folks, let’s get this show on the road

Guest: Thoughts on Brantley ROS?  Can he stay healthy?

Brad Johnson: I don’t see any reason to believe he’s a greater health risk than any other player

Brad Johnson: It’s a shame he lost his prime seasons during the peak of the HR surge

Oliver: Are you as down on Hoskins as Justin is? Think he can rebound or should we be looking to sell while we still can? Is someone like Luis Castillo enough, too much, not enough in a 12 team 10 keepers at no cost, QS h2h category league?

Brad Johnson: Go ahead and sell at this point. I don’t know exactly how down Justin is, but Hoskins does seem to have a major flaw

Brad Johnson: If he adjusts, you’ll look dumb. If he doesn’t, then you’ll look smart.

Brad Johnson: I tend to think he can adjust, but it might take awhile

Brad Johnson: As for Castillo, definitely not a guy I would target. I’d be aiming for a Corbin or Morton type if you’re looking for a pitcher. Maybe even banged up Thor.

John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Brad! Your chats have been missed across the cosmos!! I long for your fantasy wisdom!! Any hope for Danny Duffy after his start against Texas? Good buy low candidate??

Brad Johnson: Flattery will buy you a click

Brad Johnson: His velocity is trending up, I do think he’s a reasonable buy low candidate

Brad Johnson: assuming the buying is quite low

rpo: Soto for Ohtani (SP) a good sell high?

Brad Johnson: In redraft, yes

Brad Johnson: In a shallow keeper, yes

Brad Johnson: In dynasty, bad deal

JStew: Thoughts on playing time and ROS expectations for Nimmo and Meadows?

Brad Johnson: Nimmo is the best hitter on the Mets, Cespedes included. I’m projecting 95% playing time RoS. The Mets, of course, are not known for tidy management

Brad Johnson: Meadows probably drifts back to Triple-A soon

Vader: With the Astros clearly the team to beat, do you think they play Kyle Tucker everyday down the stretch?

Brad Johnson: I hope not, I’m a Tony Kemp truther. And he’s so fantastic (Kemp)

Brad Johnson: Truthfully, I don’t see any reason for the Astros to prefer Tucker to Kemp at this time. Yea, he has more power, but they’re both slightly below league average bats. Kemp is elite in LF. Although his bat is weird for the position, the Astros aren’t lacking for firepower elsewhere.

JB: Looking to improve SP – how high should I aim in a trade for a Corbin-Hoskins package?

Brad Johnson: Start with a big reach for the top tier. You just need the right believer owning a Kluber or Sale.

Big Tuna: What do you make of Gorkys? Worth owning in 12 m OPS

Brad Johnson: For now, yes.

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he’s broken out or anything. But he is batting leadoff for a non-terrible offense.

Brad Johnson: I’ll say 90 wRC+ RoS

Tim: Dahl or Jankowski worth holding in 12-team redraft leagues?

Brad Johnson: Yes, pending a loss of playing time for Jankowski. They’re fringy for sure if you have a bigger need.

Jake Junis Priest: Are you in on Frankie Montas in OAK?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been in on Montas so long I kinda forgot about him

Brad Johnson: Based purely on the stats, I guess I’m not much of a believer. I’d stash him in deep formats.

Brad Johnson: Just in case

Brad Johnson: Looks like a 4.00+ ERA to me

John: Hi, Brad. Your thoughts on Kingham? I’m considering dropping Sonny for him until Soroka comes back in daily H2H pts.

Brad Johnson: Kingham is probably a better short term play than Gray

Brad Johnson: I’m towards the pessimistic end of the scale when it comes to him, but I still see some merit in rostering him in case the K’s hold up

Guest: I’m in a weekly line-up dynasty league. Got Ohtani on a good-not-great contract, and he isis without a doubt more valuable as a pitcher, but I keep getting screwed by them messing with his schedule, and I miss starts. Worth trying to move him for a rental in trying to be a buyer?

Brad Johnson: Very situational. You could look around to see if somebody will overpay

Brad Johnson: Personally, I recommend aggregating him into a better asset. i.e. Ohtani and another stud for Jose Ramirez

SiddFinch: 15 team league with OPS. Unique keeper structure: may keep a player 4 rounds ahead where previously drafted (FA pickups kept in 29th round) with max of 12 kept. Only start 3 OF spots.

I control Trout and Betts, so life is good, but wondering what to do with other pieces. Who should I deal of the following:

Mazara (kept in 18th), Eddie Rosario (24), Acuna (25)?

Basically, is this a Mazara breakout? How much is Rosario hurt by lack of walks in an OPS league? And how good is Acuna, really?

Thanks so much!
15 team league with OPS. Unique keeper structure: may keep a player 4 rounds ahead where previously drafted (FA pickups kept in 29th round) with max of 12 kept. Only start 3 OF spots.

I control Trout and Betts, so life is good, but wondering what to do with other pieces. Who should I deal of the following:

Mazara (kept in 18th), Eddie Rosario (24), Acuna (25)?

Basically, is this a Mazara breakout? How much is Rosario hurt by lack of walks in an OPS league? And how good is Acuna, really?

Thanks!

Brad Johnson: I clicked this because it’s possibly the longest chat comment I’ve ever received

Brad Johnson: Not to be a prick, but I’m going to direct you to my Patreon account for this sort of epic

Brad Johnson: It just so happens I wrote about how to get the most out of patronage today – https://www.patreon.com/posts/19100318

OddBall Herrera: 12 team mixed keeper, who is the worst 1B you’d be willing to sell Hoskins for straight up at this point?

Brad Johnson: Interesting question. One moment please

Brad Johnson: Well, “worst” is a tad tricky

Brad Johnson: by perceived value, maybe Brandon Belt?

Brad Johnson: But he’s actually been the second best 1B by WAR (and not far off by fantasy stats)

Brad Johnson: Try a challenge trade for Rizzo? Gallo?

MarlinsGuy: How do you value pitchers in a dynasty league? Would a top five guy like Severino ever end up less valuable than someone like Albies?

Brad Johnson: Albies is substantially more valuable than Severino in 20 team deep roster

Brad Johnson: like 2.25X Severinos

Roy: 12 Team points league  Rhys Hoskins and Evan Gattis for Gary Sanchez and Ben Zobrist,m

Brad Johnson: I like it. Those catcher points can be a real difference maker. Now go drop Zobrist for somebody playable.

Brad Johnson: Unless that’s OBP pts

Brad Johnson: That’s the tricky thing about pts questions – y’all identify it as a points league, but there’s no real standard

Brad Johnson: and I kinda default to FGpts which is way different than most pts leagues

Brad Johnson: So on second thought, disregard any advice I give about a points league

Guest: Somehow despite a killer offense featuring Rizzo, Donaldson, Seager, Hoskins, and Ozuna I’ve managed to stay on the cusp of competitive so far, but I’m .500 and I’m at a crossroads in late May.  Do I hold these dudes on the expectation they’ll finally turn it on?  Or do I need to reshuffle one way or another?

Brad Johnson: So Rizzo IS playing well

Brad Johnson: Everybody says he’s struggling because he regressed to normal instead of going on a hot streak (like Jose Ramirez after his first couple weeks)

Brad Johnson: Don’t do anything with Rizzo

Brad Johnson: You can try to “sell low” on the other guys, by which I mean find an owner who wants to fleece you, then slowly talk him up to preseason value.

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t force a move, but you should be open to retooling

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: What’s with this Tim Anderson power surge? Is he a top 12 SS despite the OBP black hole?

Brad Johnson: Funny thing is… he’s not a top 12 SS, but he might be a top 12 1B if he qualified.

JImbo: Conforto or Cruz?

Brad Johnson: Ugh

Brad Johnson: Cruz

Al: Hoskins for Haniger – who wins?

Brad Johnson: Haniger

Brad Johnson: He’s super streaky too though

Mike: What do you expect ROS from Trea Turner. Will he finish a top10 player like he was drafted?

Brad Johnson: Treat Earner is having the exact season you drafted him for… 90 run, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 45 SB, .270 pace

Brad Johnson: If that’s not top 10, it’s because certain guys went ape shit

Brad Johnson: don’t blame Turner

Dov: Time to give up on Dexter Fowler?

Brad Johnson: He’s been so bad that I think it’s safe to put him on the waiver wire

Brad Johnson: I’m paying close attention so I can reclaim him

Brad Johnson: But I’ve been dropping shares

Brad Johnson: Peripherals still look fine to me

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll rebound

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: What do you make of Corbin? Reminds me of Alex Wood last year– velo drop scary but ends up only sliding him down from dominant to really good

Brad Johnson: Not a bad analogy

David: Nola for Kershaw straight up? I was offered the trade (I have Nola) but am skeptical due to Kershaw’s health and Nola’s success.

Brad Johnson: Oh wowza. Talk about risk and reward. The thing about Nola is he’s not exactly a paragon of health himself

Brad Johnson: I tend to take awhile to digest these sorts of offers.

Brad Johnson: My initially reaction is the saying about it not being broke

Brad Johnson: you know, the one where you don’t fix it

Brad Johnson: If you don’t need a miracle, maybe play it safe with the healthy ace

Brad Johnson: So hard to pass up Kershaw though…

Brad Johnson: Guy clearly has a hard on for Nola, maybe ask for a closer throw in

Make Me A Winner: Is Shane Bieber worth picking up for this year, or does he go back down/spend most of ROS at AAA?

Brad Johnson: Not more than a one start stream for redraft – at least for now

Make Me A Winner: Buxton: time to jump ship, or is there still a guy to be found in there?

Brad Johnson: If you’re tired of waiting, somebody else should be willing to take up the reins. Find a trade rather than cutting him

Brad Johnson: He might rebound while you’re looking for a swap

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Choose one boring veteran on a hot streak to grab off the wire: Mesoraco, Choo, B. Crawford

Brad Johnson: Crawford tonight, Choo RoS

Ben: Traded Bellinger for Nola a week ago in a 4 keeper league. Did I make a mistake selling low?

Brad Johnson: For shallow keeper formats, I treat the keeper slots as redraft unless we’re talking super elite talents

Brad Johnson: Neither of those players is a guaranteed top 48 player (assuming 12-team)

Brad Johnson: Nola may be more likely to be one than Bellinger

Brad Johnson: So I think this was ok if you needed pitching more than hitting

Grey: Rafael Devers or Rhys Hoskins in a keeper league? OBP + same keeper price

Brad Johnson: Devers

Brad Johnson: He’s so young

Chatty McChatter Face: How do you value Benintendi in a 5×5 dynasty? Is he an elite player as he was touted as…or is he just a solid OF who contributes a little bit everywhere? Would you move him for a chance at someone like Eloy Jiminez who could be elite in power?

Brad Johnson: First, I would not trade him straight up for Eloy, although it’s a good start

Brad Johnson: Benintendi is super well-rounded, and it does make sense to cash out before he stops running. I think you can hold him a year or two more before worrying

Brad Johnson: In the meantime, a lack of standout categories doesn’t stop a player from being valuable.

Brad Johnson: Well-rounded production is more valuable in my opinion. It gives you greater roster flexibility

Timmy: Drop Junis and activate Cahill from DL? Also have Nola, Severino, Weaver, Castillo, Clevinger, Heaney, Newcomb, Pivetta. 12 Team mixed.

Brad Johnson: Yea, it’s either Junis or Castillo

Lemon Droppit: Nimmo, Dahl, or Meadows RoS? Who gets the most PAs in their crowded outfield?

Brad Johnson: EZ Nimmo

Brad Johnson: If the Mets haven’t realized he’s an everyday starter, people need to start getting fired

Beantown: So Price is back?  Or was that due to bad competition?

Brad Johnson: Not back

Brad Johnson: Just not bad

Brad Johnson: He’s in the wily veteran phase of his career

Brad Johnson: CC’s been doing it for a decade. Cliff Lee lasted like 7 starts before cratering

Brad Johnson: All of which is to say that I don’t know what Price will be in 2 months or 2 years

Confortobly numb: Where are the Ks for Clev? Struck out over 10 dudes/9 last year.

Brad Johnson: Near as I can tell, his command and/or control improved and now he’s no longer effectively wild

Brad Johnson: I’m quietly trying to buy shares (shh)

Dov: You think Justin Turner at good keeper price for Yelich (not especially great keeper price) a fair deal? Which side do you prefer.

Brad Johnson: Yelich for 2018

Brad Johnson: Turner’s old enough that I’m not worrying about keeper value until the season is over

Adam: When do you think vlad jr will come up

Brad Johnson: Well until a couple weeks ago, my answer was late-April 2018 to late-April 2019. They’re going to have trouble going much beyond the Super 2 cutoff at this rate.

Dov: Is Samardjzilla whatever his name is droppable in a 14 teamer?

Brad Johnson: That’s a little deep to drop him, but I wouldn’t start him at Coors Field

tacopocket: Did you notice that Price’s “carpel tunnel syndrome” popped up right before his start against the yanks (who completely own him) and then was quickly healed right after?

Brad Johnson: I didn’t

Brad Johnson: As someone with transient carpel tunnel, that shit can be a nuisance one day then disappear for five months

Brad Johnson: He probably actually played too much Fortnite

Magic Sponge: 10 team mixed roto, should I trade Donaldson straight up for Felipe Vasquez? Both are hurt, and my only closers are Boxberger and Rodney *fart noises*

Brad Johnson: You should not

Brad Johnson: If Vazquez wasn’t hurt, I’d say sure

Brad Johnson: I’m not buying this quick recovery

Brad Johnson: the symptoms as described require at least a couple weeks of no throwing

Joey Boom Bats: Public Service Announcement: Jameson Taillon now has a slider. He threw it 30+ times last start, with a 23% whiff rate. It appears (from the eye test) to be a plus pitch from out of nowhere. Someone should write it up.

Brad Johnson: I’ll take this to Slack

John: Is Tropeano a good streamer against Detroit?

Brad Johnson: He is

Michael: joe musgrove worth owning in a 12 team mixed keeper league?

Brad Johnson: He is

Brad Johnson: He had his bullpen velocity

Brad Johnson: I’m grabbing as many shares as I can

Stonecutter: Pillar or Deshields RoS?

Brad Johnson: EZ DeShields

Nick: I’ve got Margot in my 20 team 6×6 roto where 240 are kept. I’m trying to contend this year. What to do with Manny?

Brad Johnson: Probably have to hold him

Brad Johnson: Can shop him around to see if anyone bites

Guest: I know you meant in the baseball sense, but hasn’t Price’s media interactions disqualified him from the term “wiley”?

Brad Johnson: I dunno, if I played for the Red Sox, I’d spend a quarter of my time pranking their media

Brad Johnson: The Red Sox and Mets have the worst beat writers. They literally make the teams worse with their coverage

Brad Johnson: A graph of reporter WAR would show 28 teams with 0 WAR and two with -5 WAR

Jules Verne: What’s Seranthony’s role in September?

Brad Johnson: Jumping the gun a bit

Brad Johnson: Though I will continue to recklessly comp him to rookie season Edwin Diaz

Guest: who’s the handcuff for felipe in PIT

Brad Johnson: Michael Feliz and Edgar Santana

Brad Johnson: Feliz has been terrible though

Brad Johnson: I’m rostering Santana

Brad Johnson: Richard Rodriguez has video game numbers, but they don’t seem to like him

Brad Johnson: Maybe they think he can become overexposed

Connor: Jeremy Hellickson his xFIP has been great this year the betting market doesn’t give him much respect. Is he due for some regression?

Brad Johnson: Not much

Brad Johnson: He’s cut down on his fastball usage

Brad Johnson: which is good because it sucks

Brad Johnson: His offspeed stuff is all good

Brad Johnson: Wacha is doing the same thing

Brad Johnson: They’re both short outing guys

Chatty McChatter Face: Is Hoskins droppable in a 8 team league with short benches? I’m having a hard time playing him and no one wants him in trade…what a change a month makes…

Brad Johnson: Pretty sure everybody is droppable if they aren’t elite

Brad Johnson: Just gotta manage your categories

Brad Johnson: Even if somebody should own him, it’s not necessarily you

Brad Johnson: And you can probably make a better “trade” with the waiver wire than a rival

John: Is Tyler ONeill going to take over an OF spot in STL for the rest of the season?

Brad Johnson: I’ll call it 50/50

Brad Johnson: The longer Dex takes to show signs of life, the more likely it becomes

Brad Johnson: We’re already up from 10/90 in favor of Dex only 3 weeks ago

Stant ‘n Deliver: Nimmo or Acuna ROS?

Brad Johnson: Ah, I’ll say Nimmo

Guest: are all red sox fans the worst or just the ones that post online

Brad Johnson: The ones in the stadium are pretty heinous

Brad Johnson: I happen to know a bunch of good ones, but I don’t interact with them online or at stadiums

Brad Johnson: So maybe it’s like a werewolf transformation type thing

Brad Johnson: Or maybe stats nerds aren’t susceptible to troll disease

Brad Johnson: Ironically, Mets fans are the only ones that are comparably bad in-stadium

Brad Johnson: Perhaps there is a causal link between fanbase and reporter WAR

Shmaglio: Would you trade Alex Reyes for Benintendi in a dynasty league

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Reyes could be special. Benintendi is special

Dan: Reporter WAR lol…the Red Sox definitely have the worst beat writers

Saul Porer: AJ minter kind of sucks

Brad Johnson: Getting a lot of Minter gripes today

Brad Johnson: I’ve been saying two things about the ATL bullpen

Brad Johnson: 1. I don’t think Viz is at risk of losing more than a couple save opps

Brad Johnson: I said that the very day Snitker said he’d give other people opportunities

Brad Johnson: No reason to do so, I don’t believe it

Brad Johnson: 2. Daniel Winkler is a boss. If anybody should be setting up, it’s him

F-Rome: Villanueva or Moreland?

Brad Johnson: EZ Moreland

Brad Johnson: Mid-order batter in that lineup?

Brad Johnson: Track record too

tacopocket: Brad Johnson
Not much
He’s cut down on his fastball usage
which is good because it sucks

this was funny….thanks

Dov: Do you think Votto is still top 10?

Brad Johnson: I didn’t think he was top 10 in the first place

Brad Johnson: Still top 20 though

Make Me A Winner: Peter Alonso: you buying? Is he poised to leapfrog Dom Smith, who seems to be the only guy who can’t hit HR in Las Vegas?

Brad Johnson: It’s getting very close to the point when Alonso becomes the 1B of the future

Brad Johnson: I see some symmetry between his performance and Rhys Hoskins early last year

Mike: Any hope for a Desmond rebound? I feel like he’s been swinging the bat better thr last few weeks, but that AVG is gross.

Brad Johnson: Somebody sent me some charts that looked promising. That said, I wasn’t compelled to investigate further.

Brad Johnson: There’s always hope when the home park is Coors Field

Philly pen: would you rather own santana from pit over neris in s +h league?

Brad Johnson: Still Neris for me

Burritos: When will the Angels realize the corpses of Cozart/Kinsler shouldn’t bat leadoff over their 330AVG/400OBP shortstop?

Brad Johnson: I dunno. Mike Scioscia is infuriating when it comes to bullpen and catcher management. Why not leadoff hitters too

Rollie’s Mustache: I’m trying to move a pitcher for an OF to address a need in a roto league. Which of these guys do you think could regress most, ie. who to sell high on now: Mikolas, Buehler or Pivetta?

Brad Johnson: Sell high on Pivetta if you’re getting similar valuations for them all

Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up

joe: Hold Dickerson or look to sell high?

Brad Johnson: I’m holding

Brad Johnson: Well, I would if I had any shares

Brad Johnson: Yancy Eaton would cry if he saw that…

tacopocket: I won’t repeat my Qs but if you go back and answer my goldy/carrasco for Stanton/shark trade question I will name my unborn child after you

Brad Johnson: Nah

Brad Johnson: I will however direct you to find me on Patreon 🙂

Slamboni: 14 team points where I need pitching, is Zach Eflin worth a flyer?

Brad Johnson: Sure

Brad Johnson: Seems decent enough to own outright in that format

Brad Johnson: Jerad Eickhoff is never coming back

Al: Nimmo has a career .249 woba vs LHP. Do you think he can avoid getting platooned?

Brad Johnson: Let’s, uh, let him accrue more than 88 PA

F-Rome: What changed about Moreland — is he better than he used to be?

Brad Johnson: Nah, he’s a hot/cold guy

Brad Johnson: He’s hot now

Brad Johnson: And the support cast should help make the cold streaks look better

Jack: What do you think the Nats need to do to reach a WS? Because as it stands, I don’t like their chances very much

Brad Johnson: Mostly just get healthy

Brad Johnson: Add a reliever

Brad Johnson: Colome would have been swell

Brad Johnson: It’s a very solidly built roster for postseason play

Maeda in the shadea : Think Kenta keeps it rolling tonight?!??!

Brad Johnson: Not at the rate he’s been

Brad Johnson: Last two starts were 100th percentile Maeda

TD: Drop Godley for Heaney, Hellickson or Sonny Gray? Godley’s velo and walk rate looks bad

Brad Johnson: You can, especially in a shallow league. If you’re going to do that, I’d outright stream

Jeremy: In 1st place but really need saves in a redraft roto and been trying to trade for weeks (saves and holds so speculatives are all owned). Too far to trade CMart for a Norris/Doolittle type? My rotation is CMart, Paxton, Berrios, Richards, Clevinger, Heaney, streamer.

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: I also object to a “type” that includes Doolittle and Norris

Brad Johnson: Heaney or Clevinger for Norris smells fine. Berrios for Doolittle

tacopocket: man I’m old because my follow up question is “what the hell is Patreon?”

Brad Johnson: Check my signature

Dan: Is torres for acuna fair in dynasty.

Brad Johnson: No, but it’s worth trying anyway

Brad Johnson: To be clear Acuna>>>Torres at this time

Matt: Fwiw Castillo has been GREAT in May (2.83 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 9.82 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) after a rough April. Any particular reason you’re so down on him?

Brad Johnson: I’m not that down on him. I just suggested him as the cut on an otherwise very stacked roster.

Brad Johnson: I can overcorrect for avoiding GABP at times

Brad Johnson: If you want an excuse

Matt S: I’ve got Cesar Hernandez, Moncada, and Schoop in a 10 teamer.  Looking to move one.  Tried to move Moncada with a pitcher for an upgrade in the outfield with no luck.  Should I keep trying or try to a similar package with Schoop?

Brad Johnson: Try marketing them all and see what produces the most helpful return

Brad Johnson: good game folks, see ya next week

Guest: I know the underlying numbers aren’t sexy, but Reynaldo Lopez keeps trucking along.  You holding ROS, or is he just getting by with smoke and mirrors?

Brad Johnson: The Smoke and the Mirrors

Brad Johnson: new podcast name

Brad Johnson: Sexy soap opera intro song