Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/29/2018
by Brad Johnson
May 29, 2018
We had a real swell chat today, heavily focused on panicked Hoskins owners.
| 4:01 |
: Hey folks, let’s get this show on the road
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| 4:01 |
: Thoughts on Brantley ROS? Can he stay healthy?
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| 4:01 |
: I don’t see any reason to believe he’s a greater health risk than any other player
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| 4:02 |
: It’s a shame he lost his prime seasons during the peak of the HR surge
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| 4:03 |
: Are you as down on Hoskins as Justin is? Think he can rebound or should we be looking to sell while we still can? Is someone like Luis Castillo enough, too much, not enough in a 12 team 10 keepers at no cost, QS h2h category league?
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| 4:03 |
: Go ahead and sell at this point. I don’t know exactly how down Justin is, but Hoskins does seem to have a major flaw
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| 4:03 |
: If he adjusts, you’ll look dumb. If he doesn’t, then you’ll look smart.
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| 4:03 |
: I tend to think he can adjust, but it might take awhile
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| 4:04 |
: As for Castillo, definitely not a guy I would target. I’d be aiming for a Corbin or Morton type if you’re looking for a pitcher. Maybe even banged up Thor.
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| 4:04 |
: Mr Brad! Your chats have been missed across the cosmos!! I long for your fantasy wisdom!! Any hope for Danny Duffy after his start against Texas? Good buy low candidate??
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| 4:04 |
: Flattery will buy you a click
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| 4:05 |
: His velocity is trending up, I do think he’s a reasonable buy low candidate
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| 4:05 |
: assuming the buying is quite low
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| 4:05 |
: Soto for Ohtani (SP) a good sell high?
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| 4:05 |
: In redraft, yes
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| 4:05 |
: In a shallow keeper, yes
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| 4:05 |
: In dynasty, bad deal
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| 4:06 |
: Thoughts on playing time and ROS expectations for Nimmo and Meadows?
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| 4:06 |
: Nimmo is the best hitter on the Mets, Cespedes included. I’m projecting 95% playing time RoS. The Mets, of course, are not known for tidy management
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| 4:07 |
: Meadows probably drifts back to Triple-A soon
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| 4:07 |
: With the Astros clearly the team to beat, do you think they play Kyle Tucker everyday down the stretch?
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| 4:07 |
: I hope not, I’m a Tony Kemp truther. And he’s so fantastic (Kemp)
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| 4:09 |
: Truthfully, I don’t see any reason for the Astros to prefer Tucker to Kemp at this time. Yea, he has more power, but they’re both slightly below league average bats. Kemp is elite in LF. Although his bat is weird for the position, the Astros aren’t lacking for firepower elsewhere.
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| 4:09 |
: Looking to improve SP – how high should I aim in a trade for a Corbin-Hoskins package?
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| 4:10 |
: Start with a big reach for the top tier. You just need the right believer owning a Kluber or Sale.
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| 4:10 |
: What do you make of Gorkys? Worth owning in 12 m OPS
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| 4:10 |
: For now, yes.
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| 4:11 |
: I don’t think he’s broken out or anything. But he is batting leadoff for a non-terrible offense.
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| 4:11 |
: I’ll say 90 wRC+ RoS
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| 4:11 |
: Dahl or Jankowski worth holding in 12-team redraft leagues?
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| 4:12 |
: Yes, pending a loss of playing time for Jankowski. They’re fringy for sure if you have a bigger need.
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| 4:12 |
: Are you in on Frankie Montas in OAK?
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| 4:12 |
: I’ve been in on Montas so long I kinda forgot about him
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| 4:13 |
: Based purely on the stats, I guess I’m not much of a believer. I’d stash him in deep formats.
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| 4:13 |
: Just in case
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| 4:13 |
: Looks like a 4.00+ ERA to me
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| 4:13 |
: Hi, Brad. Your thoughts on Kingham? I’m considering dropping Sonny for him until Soroka comes back in daily H2H pts.
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| 4:13 |
: Kingham is probably a better short term play than Gray
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| 4:14 |
: I’m towards the pessimistic end of the scale when it comes to him, but I still see some merit in rostering him in case the K’s hold up
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| 4:14 |
: I’m in a weekly line-up dynasty league. Got Ohtani on a good-not-great contract, and he isis without a doubt more valuable as a pitcher, but I keep getting screwed by them messing with his schedule, and I miss starts. Worth trying to move him for a rental in trying to be a buyer?
|
| 4:15 |
: Very situational. You could look around to see if somebody will overpay
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| 4:15 |
: Personally, I recommend aggregating him into a better asset. i.e. Ohtani and another stud for Jose Ramirez
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| 4:15 |
: 15 team league with OPS. Unique keeper structure: may keep a player 4 rounds ahead where previously drafted (FA pickups kept in 29th round) with max of 12 kept. Only start 3 OF spots.
I control Trout and Betts, so life is good, but wondering what to do with other pieces. Who should I deal of the following: Mazara (kept in 18th), Eddie Rosario (24), Acuna (25)? Basically, is this a Mazara breakout? How much is Rosario hurt by lack of walks in an OPS league? And how good is Acuna, really? Thanks so much! I control Trout and Betts, so life is good, but wondering what to do with other pieces. Who should I deal of the following: Mazara (kept in 18th), Eddie Rosario (24), Acuna (25)? Basically, is this a Mazara breakout? How much is Rosario hurt by lack of walks in an OPS league? And how good is Acuna, really? Thanks! |
| 4:15 |
: I clicked this because it’s possibly the longest chat comment I’ve ever received
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| 4:16 |
: Not to be a prick, but I’m going to direct you to my Patreon account for this sort of epic
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| 4:17 |
: It just so happens I wrote about how to get the most out of patronage today – https://www.patreon.com/posts/19100318
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| 4:17 |
: 12 team mixed keeper, who is the worst 1B you’d be willing to sell Hoskins for straight up at this point?
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| 4:17 |
: Interesting question. One moment please
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| 4:18 |
: Well, “worst” is a tad tricky
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| 4:18 |
: by perceived value, maybe Brandon Belt?
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| 4:18 |
: But he’s actually been the second best 1B by WAR (and not far off by fantasy stats)
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| 4:19 |
: Try a challenge trade for Rizzo? Gallo?
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| 4:19 |
: How do you value pitchers in a dynasty league? Would a top five guy like Severino ever end up less valuable than someone like Albies?
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| 4:20 |
: Albies is substantially more valuable than Severino in 20 team deep roster
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| 4:20 |
: like 2.25X Severinos
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| 4:20 |
: 12 Team points league Rhys Hoskins and Evan Gattis for Gary Sanchez and Ben Zobrist,m
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| 4:21 |
: I like it. Those catcher points can be a real difference maker. Now go drop Zobrist for somebody playable.
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| 4:21 |
: Unless that’s OBP pts
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| 4:21 |
: That’s the tricky thing about pts questions – y’all identify it as a points league, but there’s no real standard
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| 4:22 |
: and I kinda default to FGpts which is way different than most pts leagues
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| 4:22 |
: So on second thought, disregard any advice I give about a points league
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| 4:22 |
: Somehow despite a killer offense featuring Rizzo, Donaldson, Seager, Hoskins, and Ozuna I’ve managed to stay on the cusp of competitive so far, but I’m .500 and I’m at a crossroads in late May. Do I hold these dudes on the expectation they’ll finally turn it on? Or do I need to reshuffle one way or another?
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| 4:23 |
: So Rizzo IS playing well
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| 4:23 |
: Everybody says he’s struggling because he regressed to normal instead of going on a hot streak (like Jose Ramirez after his first couple weeks)
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| 4:23 |
: Don’t do anything with Rizzo
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| 4:24 |
: You can try to “sell low” on the other guys, by which I mean find an owner who wants to fleece you, then slowly talk him up to preseason value.
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| 4:24 |
: I wouldn’t force a move, but you should be open to retooling
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| 4:25 |
: What’s with this Tim Anderson power surge? Is he a top 12 SS despite the OBP black hole?
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| 4:25 |
: Funny thing is… he’s not a top 12 SS, but he might be a top 12 1B if he qualified.
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| 4:25 |
: Conforto or Cruz?
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| 4:25 |
: Ugh
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| 4:25 |
: Cruz
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| 4:25 |
: Hoskins for Haniger – who wins?
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| 4:25 |
: Haniger
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| 4:26 |
: He’s super streaky too though
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| 4:26 |
: What do you expect ROS from Trea Turner. Will he finish a top10 player like he was drafted?
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| 4:27 |
: Treat Earner is having the exact season you drafted him for… 90 run, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 45 SB, .270 pace
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| 4:27 |
: If that’s not top 10, it’s because certain guys went ape shit
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| 4:27 |
: don’t blame Turner
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| 4:27 |
: Time to give up on Dexter Fowler?
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| 4:27 |
: He’s been so bad that I think it’s safe to put him on the waiver wire
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| 4:28 |
: I’m paying close attention so I can reclaim him
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| 4:28 |
: But I’ve been dropping shares
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| 4:28 |
: Peripherals still look fine to me
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| 4:28 |
: I think he’ll rebound
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| 4:28 |
: What do you make of Corbin? Reminds me of Alex Wood last year– velo drop scary but ends up only sliding him down from dominant to really good
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| 4:28 |
: Not a bad analogy
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| 4:28 |
: Nola for Kershaw straight up? I was offered the trade (I have Nola) but am skeptical due to Kershaw’s health and Nola’s success.
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| 4:29 |
: Oh wowza. Talk about risk and reward. The thing about Nola is he’s not exactly a paragon of health himself
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| 4:29 |
: I tend to take awhile to digest these sorts of offers.
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| 4:30 |
: My initially reaction is the saying about it not being broke
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| 4:30 |
: you know, the one where you don’t fix it
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| 4:30 |
: If you don’t need a miracle, maybe play it safe with the healthy ace
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| 4:31 |
: So hard to pass up Kershaw though…
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| 4:31 |
: Guy clearly has a hard on for Nola, maybe ask for a closer throw in
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| 4:31 |
: Is Shane Bieber worth picking up for this year, or does he go back down/spend most of ROS at AAA?
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| 4:32 |
: Not more than a one start stream for redraft – at least for now
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| 4:32 |
: Buxton: time to jump ship, or is there still a guy to be found in there?
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| 4:32 |
: If you’re tired of waiting, somebody else should be willing to take up the reins. Find a trade rather than cutting him
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| 4:32 |
: He might rebound while you’re looking for a swap
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| 4:32 |
: Choose one boring veteran on a hot streak to grab off the wire: Mesoraco, Choo, B. Crawford
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| 4:32 |
: Crawford tonight, Choo RoS
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| 4:33 |
: Traded Bellinger for Nola a week ago in a 4 keeper league. Did I make a mistake selling low?
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| 4:33 |
: For shallow keeper formats, I treat the keeper slots as redraft unless we’re talking super elite talents
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| 4:33 |
: Neither of those players is a guaranteed top 48 player (assuming 12-team)
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| 4:34 |
: Nola may be more likely to be one than Bellinger
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| 4:34 |
: So I think this was ok if you needed pitching more than hitting
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| 4:34 |
: Rafael Devers or Rhys Hoskins in a keeper league? OBP + same keeper price
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| 4:34 |
: Devers
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| 4:34 |
: He’s so young
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| 4:34 |
: How do you value Benintendi in a 5×5 dynasty? Is he an elite player as he was touted as…or is he just a solid OF who contributes a little bit everywhere? Would you move him for a chance at someone like Eloy Jiminez who could be elite in power?
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| 4:35 |
: First, I would not trade him straight up for Eloy, although it’s a good start
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| 4:35 |
: Benintendi is super well-rounded, and it does make sense to cash out before he stops running. I think you can hold him a year or two more before worrying
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| 4:35 |
: In the meantime, a lack of standout categories doesn’t stop a player from being valuable.
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| 4:36 |
: Well-rounded production is more valuable in my opinion. It gives you greater roster flexibility
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| 4:36 |
: Drop Junis and activate Cahill from DL? Also have Nola, Severino, Weaver, Castillo, Clevinger, Heaney, Newcomb, Pivetta. 12 Team mixed.
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| 4:36 |
: Yea, it’s either Junis or Castillo
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| 4:36 |
: Nimmo, Dahl, or Meadows RoS? Who gets the most PAs in their crowded outfield?
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| 4:36 |
: EZ Nimmo
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| 4:37 |
: If the Mets haven’t realized he’s an everyday starter, people need to start getting fired
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| 4:37 |
: So Price is back? Or was that due to bad competition?
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| 4:37 |
: Not back
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| 4:37 |
: Just not bad
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| 4:37 |
: He’s in the wily veteran phase of his career
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| 4:38 |
: CC’s been doing it for a decade. Cliff Lee lasted like 7 starts before cratering
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| 4:38 |
: All of which is to say that I don’t know what Price will be in 2 months or 2 years
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| 4:38 |
: Where are the Ks for Clev? Struck out over 10 dudes/9 last year.
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| 4:39 |
: Near as I can tell, his command and/or control improved and now he’s no longer effectively wild
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| 4:39 |
: I’m quietly trying to buy shares (shh)
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| 4:40 |
: You think Justin Turner at good keeper price for Yelich (not especially great keeper price) a fair deal? Which side do you prefer.
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| 4:40 |
: Yelich for 2018
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| 4:40 |
: Turner’s old enough that I’m not worrying about keeper value until the season is over
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| 4:40 |
: When do you think vlad jr will come up
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| 4:41 |
: Well until a couple weeks ago, my answer was late-April 2018 to late-April 2019. They’re going to have trouble going much beyond the Super 2 cutoff at this rate.
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| 4:41 |
: Is Samardjzilla whatever his name is droppable in a 14 teamer?
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| 4:42 |
: That’s a little deep to drop him, but I wouldn’t start him at Coors Field
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| 4:42 |
: Did you notice that Price’s “carpel tunnel syndrome” popped up right before his start against the yanks (who completely own him) and then was quickly healed right after?
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| 4:42 |
: I didn’t
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| 4:42 |
: As someone with transient carpel tunnel, that shit can be a nuisance one day then disappear for five months
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| 4:43 |
: He probably actually played too much Fortnite
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| 4:43 |
: 10 team mixed roto, should I trade Donaldson straight up for Felipe Vasquez? Both are hurt, and my only closers are Boxberger and Rodney *fart noises*
|
| 4:43 |
: You should not
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| 4:43 |
: If Vazquez wasn’t hurt, I’d say sure
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| 4:43 |
: I’m not buying this quick recovery
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| 4:44 |
: the symptoms as described require at least a couple weeks of no throwing
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| 4:44 |
: Public Service Announcement: Jameson Taillon now has a slider. He threw it 30+ times last start, with a 23% whiff rate. It appears (from the eye test) to be a plus pitch from out of nowhere. Someone should write it up.
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| 4:44 |
: I’ll take this to Slack
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| 4:45 |
: Is Tropeano a good streamer against Detroit?
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| 4:45 |
: He is
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| 4:45 |
: joe musgrove worth owning in a 12 team mixed keeper league?
|
| 4:45 |
: He is
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| 4:45 |
: He had his bullpen velocity
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| 4:46 |
: I’m grabbing as many shares as I can
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| 4:46 |
: Pillar or Deshields RoS?
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| 4:46 |
: EZ DeShields
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| 4:46 |
: I’ve got Margot in my 20 team 6×6 roto where 240 are kept. I’m trying to contend this year. What to do with Manny?
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| 4:46 |
: Probably have to hold him
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| 4:46 |
: Can shop him around to see if anyone bites
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| 4:46 |
: I know you meant in the baseball sense, but hasn’t Price’s media interactions disqualified him from the term “wiley”?
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| 4:47 |
: I dunno, if I played for the Red Sox, I’d spend a quarter of my time pranking their media
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| 4:47 |
: The Red Sox and Mets have the worst beat writers. They literally make the teams worse with their coverage
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| 4:48 |
: A graph of reporter WAR would show 28 teams with 0 WAR and two with -5 WAR
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| 4:49 |
: What’s Seranthony’s role in September?
|
| 4:49 |
: Jumping the gun a bit
|
| 4:50 |
: Though I will continue to recklessly comp him to rookie season Edwin Diaz
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| 4:50 |
: who’s the handcuff for felipe in PIT
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| 4:50 |
: Michael Feliz and Edgar Santana
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| 4:50 |
: Feliz has been terrible though
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| 4:50 |
: I’m rostering Santana
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| 4:50 |
: Richard Rodriguez has video game numbers, but they don’t seem to like him
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| 4:50 |
: Maybe they think he can become overexposed
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| 4:51 |
: Jeremy Hellickson his xFIP has been great this year the betting market doesn’t give him much respect. Is he due for some regression?
|
| 4:51 |
: Not much
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| 4:51 |
: He’s cut down on his fastball usage
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| 4:51 |
: which is good because it sucks
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| 4:51 |
: His offspeed stuff is all good
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| 4:51 |
: Wacha is doing the same thing
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| 4:51 |
: They’re both short outing guys
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| 4:51 |
: Is Hoskins droppable in a 8 team league with short benches? I’m having a hard time playing him and no one wants him in trade…what a change a month makes…
|
| 4:52 |
: Pretty sure everybody is droppable if they aren’t elite
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| 4:52 |
: Just gotta manage your categories
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| 4:52 |
: Even if somebody should own him, it’s not necessarily you
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| 4:52 |
: And you can probably make a better “trade” with the waiver wire than a rival
|
| 4:52 |
: Is Tyler ONeill going to take over an OF spot in STL for the rest of the season?
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| 4:52 |
: I’ll call it 50/50
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| 4:53 |
: The longer Dex takes to show signs of life, the more likely it becomes
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| 4:53 |
: We’re already up from 10/90 in favor of Dex only 3 weeks ago
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| 4:53 |
: Nimmo or Acuna ROS?
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| 4:53 |
: Ah, I’ll say Nimmo
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| 4:53 |
: are all red sox fans the worst or just the ones that post online
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| 4:54 |
: The ones in the stadium are pretty heinous
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| 4:54 |
: I happen to know a bunch of good ones, but I don’t interact with them online or at stadiums
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| 4:54 |
: So maybe it’s like a werewolf transformation type thing
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| 4:55 |
: Or maybe stats nerds aren’t susceptible to troll disease
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| 4:55 |
: Ironically, Mets fans are the only ones that are comparably bad in-stadium
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| 4:55 |
: Perhaps there is a causal link between fanbase and reporter WAR
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| 4:55 |
: Would you trade Alex Reyes for Benintendi in a dynasty league
|
| 4:55 |
: Yes
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| 4:56 |
: Reyes could be special. Benintendi is special
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| 4:56 |
: Reporter WAR lol…the Red Sox definitely have the worst beat writers
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| 4:56 |
: AJ minter kind of sucks
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| 4:56 |
: Getting a lot of Minter gripes today
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| 4:56 |
: I’ve been saying two things about the ATL bullpen
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| 4:56 |
: 1. I don’t think Viz is at risk of losing more than a couple save opps
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| 4:57 |
: I said that the very day Snitker said he’d give other people opportunities
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| 4:57 |
: No reason to do so, I don’t believe it
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| 4:57 |
: 2. Daniel Winkler is a boss. If anybody should be setting up, it’s him
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| 4:57 |
: Villanueva or Moreland?
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| 4:57 |
: EZ Moreland
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| 4:57 |
: Mid-order batter in that lineup?
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| 4:58 |
: Track record too
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| 4:58 |
: Brad Johnson
Not much He’s cut down on his fastball usage which is good because it sucks this was funny….thanks |
| 4:58 |
: Do you think Votto is still top 10?
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| 4:58 |
: I didn’t think he was top 10 in the first place
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| 4:58 |
: Still top 20 though
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| 4:58 |
: Peter Alonso: you buying? Is he poised to leapfrog Dom Smith, who seems to be the only guy who can’t hit HR in Las Vegas?
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| 4:59 |
: It’s getting very close to the point when Alonso becomes the 1B of the future
|
| 4:59 |
: I see some symmetry between his performance and Rhys Hoskins early last year
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| 4:59 |
: Any hope for a Desmond rebound? I feel like he’s been swinging the bat better thr last few weeks, but that AVG is gross.
|
| 4:59 |
: Somebody sent me some charts that looked promising. That said, I wasn’t compelled to investigate further.
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| 5:00 |
: There’s always hope when the home park is Coors Field
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| 5:00 |
: would you rather own santana from pit over neris in s +h league?
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| 5:00 |
: Still Neris for me
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| 5:00 |
: When will the Angels realize the corpses of Cozart/Kinsler shouldn’t bat leadoff over their 330AVG/400OBP shortstop?
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| 5:00 |
: I dunno. Mike Scioscia is infuriating when it comes to bullpen and catcher management. Why not leadoff hitters too
|
| 5:01 |
: I’m trying to move a pitcher for an OF to address a need in a roto league. Which of these guys do you think could regress most, ie. who to sell high on now: Mikolas, Buehler or Pivetta?
|
| 5:01 |
: Sell high on Pivetta if you’re getting similar valuations for them all
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| 5:01 |
: Time to wrap it up
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| 5:01 |
: Hold Dickerson or look to sell high?
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| 5:01 |
: I’m holding
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| 5:01 |
: Well, I would if I had any shares
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| 5:01 |
: Yancy Eaton would cry if he saw that…
|
| 5:02 |
: I won’t repeat my Qs but if you go back and answer my goldy/carrasco for Stanton/shark trade question I will name my unborn child after you
|
| 5:02 |
: Nah
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| 5:02 |
: I will however direct you to find me on Patreon 🙂
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| 5:02 |
: 14 team points where I need pitching, is Zach Eflin worth a flyer?
|
| 5:02 |
: Sure
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| 5:02 |
: Seems decent enough to own outright in that format
|
| 5:02 |
: Jerad Eickhoff is never coming back
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| 5:03 |
: Nimmo has a career .249 woba vs LHP. Do you think he can avoid getting platooned?
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| 5:03 |
: Let’s, uh, let him accrue more than 88 PA
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| 5:03 |
: What changed about Moreland — is he better than he used to be?
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| 5:03 |
: Nah, he’s a hot/cold guy
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| 5:03 |
: He’s hot now
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| 5:03 |
: And the support cast should help make the cold streaks look better
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| 5:04 |
: What do you think the Nats need to do to reach a WS? Because as it stands, I don’t like their chances very much
|
| 5:04 |
: Mostly just get healthy
|
| 5:04 |
: Add a reliever
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| 5:04 |
: Colome would have been swell
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| 5:04 |
: It’s a very solidly built roster for postseason play
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| 5:05 |
: Think Kenta keeps it rolling tonight?!??!
|
| 5:05 |
: Not at the rate he’s been
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| 5:05 |
: Last two starts were 100th percentile Maeda
|
| 5:05 |
: Drop Godley for Heaney, Hellickson or Sonny Gray? Godley’s velo and walk rate looks bad
|
| 5:05 |
: You can, especially in a shallow league. If you’re going to do that, I’d outright stream
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| 5:06 |
: In 1st place but really need saves in a redraft roto and been trying to trade for weeks (saves and holds so speculatives are all owned). Too far to trade CMart for a Norris/Doolittle type? My rotation is CMart, Paxton, Berrios, Richards, Clevinger, Heaney, streamer.
|
| 5:06 |
: Yes
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| 5:06 |
: I also object to a “type” that includes Doolittle and Norris
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| 5:07 |
: Heaney or Clevinger for Norris smells fine. Berrios for Doolittle
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| 5:07 |
: man I’m old because my follow up question is “what the hell is Patreon?”
|
| 5:07 |
: Check my signature
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| 5:07 |
: Is torres for acuna fair in dynasty.
|
| 5:07 |
: No, but it’s worth trying anyway
|
| 5:07 |
: To be clear Acuna>>>Torres at this time
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| 5:08 |
: Fwiw Castillo has been GREAT in May (2.83 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 9.82 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) after a rough April. Any particular reason you’re so down on him?
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| 5:08 |
: I’m not that down on him. I just suggested him as the cut on an otherwise very stacked roster.
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| 5:08 |
: I can overcorrect for avoiding GABP at times
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| 5:08 |
: If you want an excuse
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| 5:08 |
: I’ve got Cesar Hernandez, Moncada, and Schoop in a 10 teamer. Looking to move one. Tried to move Moncada with a pitcher for an upgrade in the outfield with no luck. Should I keep trying or try to a similar package with Schoop?
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| 5:09 |
: Try marketing them all and see what produces the most helpful return
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| 5:09 |
: good game folks, see ya next week
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| 5:09 |
: I know the underlying numbers aren’t sexy, but Reynaldo Lopez keeps trucking along. You holding ROS, or is he just getting by with smoke and mirrors?
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| 5:09 |
: The Smoke and the Mirrors
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| 5:09 |
: new podcast name
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| 5:09 |
: Sexy soap opera intro song
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