Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/30/2019

by Brad Johnson

April 30, 2019

We had a chat. It’s complete. Read the transcript. Prospect takes abound.

4:01	Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a moment. Sadly, we didn’t quite finish our trade negotiations.

4:01	Bryant’sBattingGlasses: What can we expect from Nick Senzel since he’s due for a call-up?

4:01	Brad Johnson: Yep, it’s DEFCON 1 on Senzel time.

4:03	Brad Johnson: He actually still seems to be shaking off rust in Triple-A so I’m surprised they’re promoting him. From what I’ve heard, the outfield experiment isn’t working

4:04	Brad Johnson: As far as stats now, maybe a 105 wRC+ with some power and speed

4:04	Brad Johnson: Growth up to 130

4:05	abelwingnut: any thoughts on howie kendrick? he looks like an all new hitter. newfound power, newfound approach, newfound profile.

4:05	Brad Johnson: I’ve long liked Kendrick, and he’s had this look about him for a few seasons. The limiting factor is health

4:05	Brad Johnson: And in his case, I don’t think the body is going to cooperate unless he’s used sparingly

4:05	Brad Johnson: The Nationals WILL use him sparingly which is good in a sense

4:06	Brad Johnson: In short, love him when appropriately priced in DFS

4:06	Brad Johnson: Kinda unusable in weekly formats. Some value as a streamer/bench stash in daily formats

4:06	Knoxville: Jeffress’s velocity is still down. Do I still hold in case he gets the closer job or just drop for Strop?

4:06	Brad Johnson: Drop for Strop

4:06	Brad Johnson: That’s far too clean of a swap

4:07	Brad Johnson: If the option is something like Hansel Robles or Sergio Romo, then it’s a little closer to a push

4:07	Alex: Is Verdugo relevant in 12 team mixed points (5 OF/2 UTIL) while Pollock is out, or will the Dodgers find a way to not play him?

4:07	Brad Johnson: I think they’ll use this as an excuse TO play him

4:07	Brad Johnson: But the bulk of the reps could end up falling to Chris Taylor

4:08	Brad Johnson: I’d bet on Verdugo right now

4:08	marichal: Do you expect Luis Urias to be called back up any time soon? If so, how do your rate his value ROS?

4:08	Brad Johnson: I’ve spent a lot of time discussing Urias today (he’s one of the guys involved in the dynasty discussion mentioned in the intro above the chat box)

4:08	Brad Johnson: He’s crushing Triple-A pitching in the friendliest environment for hitters. With Tatis IL-bound, Urias may be the call

4:09	1b interest: You should chat with Sporer about CWalker v Muncy. Also – with the landscape of 1b changing, where does Matt Olson fit in when he returns?

4:10	slowdive: Muncy or Kike at 2b? I have both but need to cut one. I thought muncy would be better than this.

4:10	Brad Johnson: Muncy is playing well…

4:10	Brad Johnson: 30 HR pace, 121 wRC+, solid run production

4:11	Brad Johnson: And I’m still happily taking Muncy over Walker

4:11	Brad Johnson: I think the better discussion is Walker or Aguilar

4:12	Brad Johnson: They’re both serious whiff rate guys

4:12	Brad Johnson: Muncy makes a nice amount of contact and happens to take K’s by working counts

4:12	Ryan: Disregarding position, cut one of Pinder, Gardner or Vogelbach?

4:13	Brad Johnson: Depends on your time horizon. Gardner will eventually lose regular playing time, but I like him more than Pinder right this moment.

4:13	Bobby Cox: Do we see Pache or Waters this season if Inciarte doesn’t hit better?

4:14	Brad Johnson: I could be wrong, but neither of those players looks to be within a year of the majors. Pache’s defense gives him a nice floor though

4:14	Brad Johnson: I don’t recall if either is on the 40-man offhand, that would help

4:14	Andrew Triggskaedekaphobia: Would you give Tim Anderson plus an SP4 type for Kris Bryant in a 12 team H2H?

4:14	Brad Johnson: Instantly. I’m not a believer in Anderson’s hot start

4:14	Camargoat: Do you think Rodgers gets called up before the ASB?

4:14	Brad Johnson: At this rate, yes.

4:15	Brad Johnson: He’s finally putting up some top prospect quality numbers

4:15	Brad Johnson: Contact rate is way up

4:15	Brad Johnson: And power too

4:15	Brad Johnson: But, he’s in one of the friendliest minor league venues with a juiced baseball

4:16	Vslyke: Is Nick Pivetta worth keeping in an NA slot, or should I go grab a more conventional prospect? Has been good in AAA

4:16	Brad Johnson: It’s a matter of preference and alternative

4:16	Brad Johnson: if you can stash a guy like Yordan Alvarez, I would prefer that

4:17	Brad Johnson: but if it’s a longer term prospect, then hold Pivetta and pick up the prospect later

4:17	Zion: Is Eduardo Rodriguez droppable in a 13 team league?

4:17	Brad Johnson: No, he’s pitching well

4:18	Brad Johnson: Something we all need to get used to is that good pitchers are going to have their share of 9.00 ERA games

4:18	Rock City: I keep reading about all the good on Niko Goodrum…does he have 20/20 in him?

4:18	Brad Johnson: Home runs, yes.

4:18	Brad Johnson: I think 20 SBs is a big stretch

4:18	Brad Johnson: 10 to 15 maybe (and that’s with him already at 3)

4:19	Hayward: Dejong: hold or sell high?

4:19	Brad Johnson: I’d sell, especially in a OBP format. For AVG, I think you’ll find the offers aren’t actually better than him

4:19	Yay for YA: So do you think Yordan Alvarez may arrive by next month?

4:20	Brad Johnson: He’s a top prospect repeating Triple-A with a 200 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 88 PA. Plus nice BB and K rates.

4:20	Brad Johnson: The only thing working against him is the Astros deeeeep depth chart

4:20	Brad Johnson: That said, he should be ahead of Kyle Tucker now

4:21	Brad Johnson: So yea, I think he’s on the cusp of forcing a call up

4:21	Dan: Am I missing something with Kris Bryant? Is last year making people impatient, or is me discounting last year making me too patient?

4:21	Brad Johnson: It’s the combination of last season plus a slow start this year

4:22	Brad Johnson: Tommy La Stella already has 23 home runs

4:22	Brad Johnson: Bryant only has 3

4:22	Brad Johnson: It’s not a great look. That said, I’m basically on board.

4:22	Jumbo: Trade Bieber for 2B Moustakas or stick with my current Cano/Odor combo of terror?

4:23	Brad Johnson: Moose is same asset class so stick with what you’ve got

4:23	MeDeKe: Is it worth dealing M. Chapman plus, for Bryant, in a deep 10-tm forever dynasty? Starting to wonder how close in value they are.

4:23	Brad Johnson: Chapman is better

4:23	Brad Johnson: And I just got done “liking” Bryant

4:24	ohjohnny: How worried should I be about Hiura’s terrible BB/K rates in AAA? What kind of line do you think he could produce right now with a starting role in the bigs?

4:24	Brad Johnson: Not sure about the exact line, but he’d probably be an above average hitter

4:24	Zumba: So you’re in on Yordan Alvarez?

4:24	Brad Johnson: Yes.

4:24	Roger: If Martin Perez shoves against Houston, is it time to take a long, deep look at him?

4:24	Brad Johnson: We can look at guys at any time

4:25	Brad Johnson: Perez is certainly better than he’s been, but I’m not seeing a must-own guy for 12-team mixed

4:25	Dan: What do you expect out of Travis Shaw at this point?

4:25	Brad Johnson: 115 wRC+, similar output to 2018 pace

4:26	Jimbo: French Onion or Wonton? Choose your soup

4:26	Brad Johnson: A good french onion is a thing of beauty

4:26	Brad Johnson: Wonton soup is always salt water with dough balls

4:26	Jeff: What’s your take on Travis Shaw’s struggles?

4:27	Brad Johnson: More specifically, he still has elevated SwStr% and K% without any change to his batted ball quality of plate discipline

4:28	Brad Johnson: So, without doing more research, I would guess his quality of opponent is higher than normal.

4:28	Brad Johnson: And he’s still terrible vs LHP

4:28	Chuck: Hey Brad, which side would you take – Flaherty for C.Archer and Cano? (14 tm, 5×5, 12 Keepers)

4:28	Brad Johnson: Flaherty

4:28	Orange: Brad, I’m bleeding at SS. I’d like to trade Chris Paddack for a SS – who do you think I can target for him?

4:28	Brad Johnson: Bogaerts?

4:29	Brad Johnson: Mondesi owner might be edgy

4:29	Brad Johnson: Seager or Gleyber maybe

4:29	Brad Johnson: I’m looking to aim high on name brand but perhaps take back a slow-ish starter

4:29	Fleff: Do you like Y.Alvarez more than M.Olsen now for just this season?

4:30	Brad Johnson: No, only because the Astros depth pile creates problems. Olson will play when he’s back, although hamate injuries can linger

4:30	Turgid: The game in KC tonight is not going to happen right?

4:30	Brad Johnson: Not based on the report I just saw

4:30	Scottie Pippen: Should I be starting Omar Narvaez everyday at this point? It’s either him or Wilson Ramos.

4:30	Brad Johnson: Pretty much

4:30	Ryan: what do you expect from Canning RoS?

4:30	Brad Johnson: Let’s get through one start first

4:31	Brad Johnson: We don’t even know for sure if this is more than a spot appearance

4:31	Prospect Help: Hi Brad. In a vacuum, who has the higher ceiling/floor long term -> Kiura or Y Alvarez? This is for beyond this year, of course. Thanks.

4:32	Brad Johnson: Personally, I like Alvarez more. I’d also reach out to Shelly, Hulet, and McDongenhagen for opinions.

4:32	Bryant’sBattingGlasses: Do you expect Alex Gordon to be an RBI leader at the end of the season like he is now

4:32	Brad Johnson: Definitely

4:32	John Wayne: Should you rather fight one horse sized duck or 100 duck sized horses?

4:32	Brad Johnson: Obviously the smaller horses. I just need to get some body armor for my Achilles and I’m golden

4:33	Brad Johnson: One peck from a horse-size duck is game over

4:33	j: What do you expect form Elvis Andrus for the rest of the season?

4:33	Brad Johnson: Something like his 2017 numbers

4:34	Barry Bonds: (Forgot to mention: 12-team) Need to fill an OF spot in my H2H 6×6 (OBP & QS added). My Hyun-Jin Ryu for his Domingo Santana seem fair?

4:34	Brad Johnson: Sure!

4:34	Dan: What’s the most important skill for a league commissioner to have?

4:34	Brad Johnson: Availability

4:34	Brad Johnson: patience

4:34	Brad Johnson: a long fuse

4:34	Nathan: Have you customized your dashboard for player stats? If so, what statistics do you prioritize when doing a quick analysis of a hitter or pitcher?

4:35	Brad Johnson: I have. If I remember, I’ll do something on my Patreon about it. It’s best shown via video.

4:35	Guest: What’s your feel for Rengifo?

4:35	Brad Johnson: For fantasy purposes, an upgrade on Fletcher

4:35	Brad Johnson: (when he plays)

4:35	Brad Johnson: I think Fletcher is maybe a little better in a real world sense

4:35	Brad Johnson: And I love the Marco Scutaro act he’s putting on

4:36	Yo yo yo: What’s up with Altuve ? Really drafted him for batting average Is there a reason to believe that he is selling out for more power and the avg won’t rebound?

4:37	Brad Johnson: Nope. “What’s up” is he has a 27.3% HR/FB instead of his career 8.5% HR/FB

4:37	Brad Johnson: Relatedly, he has a .225 BABIP

4:37	Brad Johnson: Those numbers will trade places, and he’ll hit around .300.

4:37	Kiermaier’s Dashing Good Looks: Wonton soup = dirty water butter soup, convince me otherwise

4:37	Brad Johnson: This isn’t debate club

4:38	Brad Johnson: I don’t have to argue positions I don’t believe

4:38	Anonymous: 20-team 5×5. Tony Wolters (coors stretch coming up) or Danny Jansen?

4:38	Brad Johnson: Full season, Jansen

4:38	Brad Johnson: If you’ve rostered both and just want a short term play, Wolters.

4:38	Porcho Villa: Would you deal T. Anderson to get J. Baez? 5×5 OBP

4:38	Brad Johnson: In a heartbeat

4:38	Brad Johnson: I’d trade 4 Andersons for 1 Baez

4:39	Kirk: Worth stashing Jesus Luzardo in a H2H 16-Team? I’m 4-0, and trying to think ahead.

4:39	Brad Johnson: I suspect there are better stashes out there.

4:39	Brad Johnson: Zac Gallen may be closer to the majors for example.

4:39	Zach: Which side do you prefer, DeGrom and Rizzo or Buehler and JoRam?

4:39	Brad Johnson: Ooh that one’s sufficiently tough!

4:40	Brad Johnson: Which? deGrom + Rizzo (59.6% \| 62 votes) Buehler + JoRam (40.3% \| 42 votes) Total Votes: 104

4:40	Will: Drop Schwarber for Nate Lowe?

4:40	Brad Johnson: I think you can

4:40	Brad Johnson: It’s a bold move

4:40	Brad Johnson: I’m assuming this is a shallow format

4:40	Porcho Villa: Pick one Rendon fill-in: H. Dozier, E. Escobar, Y. Diaz, M. Franco

4:40	Brad Johnson: Any but Franco

4:42	Kiermaier’s Dashing Good Looks: What are your thoughts on Tyler Beede getting the call?

4:42	Brad Johnson: Very excited!

4:43	Brad Johnson: He crushed the minors at a time when the juiced ball ruined pitchers’ lives

4:43	bob: are you worried about machado at all? think his HR totals will be lower than were used to because of the park he’s in?

4:43	Brad Johnson: No, Petco isn’t really that HR suppressant anymore

4:43	Brad Johnson: But I think it plays that way a little early in the season

4:43	Brad Johnson: I’ve certainly seen some off the bat HRs land on the warning track there

4:44	Brad Johnson: I’m not worried about Machado

4:44	Brad Johnson: Just traded for him in an 18-teamer – Moose + Wil Myers

4:44	Brad Johnson: (and now I have to start Stevie Wilkerson!)

4:45	Andrew: Do you have any insight into Matt Chapman’s huge contact improvement? Is he just hot to start the season or has he changed in some fundamental way?

4:45	Brad Johnson: Some of it is soft opponents. Some of it is he’s really friggin good

4:45	Dan: What’s the biggest mistake people make at this point in the season?

4:45	Brad Johnson: They give up

4:45	Turgid: As a Mondesi owner, there is no way in hell I’d trade him for Paddack

4:46	Christopher Nolan Reimold: Josh Naylor has obviously been creating some hype, but what do you make of his batted ball profile? Seems very subpar

4:46	Brad Johnson: The stat page doesn’t stand out, I’ll grant you that

4:46	Brad Johnson: The scouting report sure does

4:46	Nickles: Lindor for Jose Ramirez. Which side you like more?

4:46	Brad Johnson: Lindor

4:46	Roger: Beede or Canning ros?

4:46	Brad Johnson: Beede

4:46	Brad Johnson: they’re both potential difference makers

4:47	Ken Giles Right Hook: Aaron Nola’s FIP matches his ERA (don’t look it’s ugly). Prime time in a dynasty league to buy low right? I’m looking to make a run next season and am offering Grandal and Strahm

4:47	Brad Johnson: The issue is his command. He’s missing his spots. Seems to indicate a mechanical issue or injury.

4:47	Brad Johnson: If it’s not a health problem, then I think he’ll figure it out

4:48	Anonymous: FAAB% for Cano? 12-team pts

4:48	Brad Johnson: very low

4:48	Brad Johnson: Replacement level is pretty high at 2B

4:48	Matt: Is it still too early to relegate Kikuchi to a #4-5 starter with low K% and few QS due to innings limits (including that whole usage as an opener every few weeks)?

4:48	Brad Johnson: No, I’m not impressed for fantasy purposes

4:48	Justin: how bad should I feel for trading Andrus for C.Taylor before the season started in a dynasty(I was short of OF)

4:48	Brad Johnson: 🙁

4:49	Anonymous: TB @ KC PPD

4:49	Yo yo yo: 12 tm h2h do you prefer narvaez or r.chirinos ROS?

4:49	Brad Johnson: Narvaez

4:49	Done?: What is up with Justin Turner, who now hits singles and only singles? Is there any chance of a rebound here?

4:49	Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s fine

4:49	Scottie Pippen: With Starling Marte reinstated today and back in the lineup, who should I cut to make room for him off the IL: Marcus Semien or Billy Hamilton?

4:49	Brad Johnson: Ham

4:50	Brad Johnson: Going back to Turner, there isn’t much in the peripherals to incite panic. If he was a nobody, I’d be screaming BUY.

4:50	howdy: In a 12 tm OBP/QS league im really needing pitching. Thoughts on mondesi for taillon and franmil

4:50	Brad Johnson: I like it

4:50	Brad Johnson: It’s a bold gamble as Mondesi and Franmil have massive variance

4:50	Brad Johnson: (and Taillon is a pitcher)

4:51	Limpton: Do you own any Julio Rodriquez shares? Is there a case for NOT trying to pick him up this early in dynasty?

4:51	Brad Johnson: I missed out sadly

4:51	Brad Johnson: Should be owned in deep formats

4:52	Brad Johnson: I have to wrap up on time again this week, sorry folks. We’ll be shutting down promptly at 5:00

4:52	G: Flaherty or Paddack + Boyd?

4:53	Brad Johnson: Flaherty

4:53	Beede: Just read up on your Beede love – him or Eickhoff in a vacuum?

4:53	Brad Johnson: Beede

4:53	Johnny5Alive: any thoughts on this ty france kid in san diego? was absolutely killing the ball in the minors

4:53	Brad Johnson: Yea, somewhere…

4:54	Brad Johnson: Here it is, gimme a minute before clicking, I need to turn off the paywall.

4:54	Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/daily-fringe-4-26338250

4:54	Brad Johnson: Tatis injury could be a status upgrade

4:54	Thecuracaokid: Is there any site with data on the the strength of schedule presented on a montly basis? I’m already preparing for the play-off

4:55	Brad Johnson: That’s pretty premature

4:55	FangraphFan: Fangraph pages sometimes – actually quite often – forward to very dangerous looking spam pages. Is it just me or Fangraph is aware of this issue?

4:55	Brad Johnson: We are aware

4:55	Brad Johnson: Unfortunately, it’s just what happens if you use ads on your site

4:56	Brad Johnson: A side effect of google’s monopoly

4:56	Brad Johnson: I think a membership fixes the issue

4:56	Brad Johnson: I don’t have any problems

4:56	Disgruntled Owner: I would like to take a moment to thank Berrios, Glasnow and Stroman for waiting until I _finally_ cut bait to start performing like I always hoped they would

4:56	Brad Johnson: Haha

4:56	Tribe Time: Prefer J. Polanco Or semien the rest of the way?

4:56	Brad Johnson: Polanco, barely

4:56	Disgruntled Owner: Soroka upside: #2 fantasy SP?

4:56	Brad Johnson: Sure, as upside

4:56	Micah: Andrus or Rosario ROS?

4:57	Brad Johnson: Eddie > Elvis > Amed

4:57	Porcho Villa: Which awful C do you prefer: Zunino, Vasquez, Alfaro, Phegley

4:57	Brad Johnson: Zunino or Alfaro

4:57	Uncle Spike: Thoughts on Luis Robert? Could we be seeing a meteoric rise like Juan Soto? He’s been a beast.

4:57	Brad Johnson: I don’t think so

4:57	Brad Johnson: It’s all .553 BABIP and .467 ISO

4:58	Brad Johnson: he just need a promotion from High-A

4:58	Jump on Home: Putting in a vote for the dashboard video on Patreon, FWIW

4:58	Brad Johnson: Been meaning to do that for a while.

4:58	Ken Giles Right Hook: Hot take: MacKenzie Gore ends up being a better SP than both Casey Mize AND Forrest Whitley

4:58	Brad Johnson: Luke warm at best

4:59	lefty: should i start hunter dozier vs snell today?

4:59	Brad Johnson: No, they’re already postponed

4:59	Johnny5Alive: What would you bid on Beede in a NL only, $100 FAAB cap? catch is over $10, and the contract gets locked in for next season as well (or you spend at least $50 in real money to buy him out).

4:59	Brad Johnson: I think $9 is reasonable.

4:59	Dwight Evans: The red Sox stink. That is sll

4:59	guest: strahm & devers for suarez in a dynasty league, which side wins?

5:00	Brad Johnson: Playing with different time horizons here.

5:00	Brad Johnson: Suarez wins now, Devers a few years from now.

5:00	Brad Johnson: And that’s a wrap. See y’all next week.

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