Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/30/2019

We had a chat. It’s complete. Read the transcript. Prospect takes abound.

4:01
Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a moment. Sadly, we didn’t quite finish our trade negotiations.

4:01
Bryant’sBattingGlasses: What can we expect from Nick Senzel since he’s due for a call-up?

4:01
Brad Johnson: Yep, it’s DEFCON 1 on Senzel time.

4:03
Brad Johnson: He actually still seems to be shaking off rust in Triple-A so I’m surprised they’re promoting him. From what I’ve heard, the outfield experiment isn’t working

4:04
Brad Johnson: As far as stats now, maybe a 105 wRC+ with some power and speed

4:04
Brad Johnson: Growth up to 130

4:05
abelwingnut: any thoughts on howie kendrick? he looks like an all new hitter. newfound power, newfound approach, newfound profile.

4:05
Brad Johnson: I’ve long liked Kendrick, and he’s had this look about him for a few seasons. The limiting factor is health

4:05
Brad Johnson: And in his case, I don’t think the body is going to cooperate unless he’s used sparingly

4:05
Brad Johnson: The Nationals WILL use him sparingly which is good in a sense

4:06
Brad Johnson: In short, love him when appropriately priced in DFS

4:06
Brad Johnson: Kinda unusable in weekly formats. Some value as a streamer/bench stash in daily formats

4:06
Knoxville: Jeffress’s velocity is still down.  Do I still hold in case he gets the closer job or just drop for Strop?

4:06
Brad Johnson: Drop for Strop

4:06
Brad Johnson: That’s far too clean of a swap

4:07
Brad Johnson: If the option is something like Hansel Robles or Sergio Romo, then it’s a little closer to a push

4:07
Alex: Is Verdugo relevant in 12 team mixed points (5 OF/2 UTIL) while Pollock is out, or will the Dodgers find a way to not play him?

4:07
Brad Johnson: I think they’ll use this as an excuse TO play him

4:07
Brad Johnson: But the bulk of the reps could end up falling to Chris Taylor

4:08
Brad Johnson: I’d bet on Verdugo right now

4:08
marichal: Do you expect Luis Urias to be called back up any time soon? If so, how do your rate his value ROS?

4:08
Brad Johnson: I’ve spent a lot of time discussing Urias today (he’s one of the guys involved in the dynasty discussion mentioned in the intro above the chat box)

4:08
Brad Johnson: He’s crushing Triple-A pitching in the friendliest environment for hitters. With Tatis IL-bound, Urias may be the call

4:09
1b interest: You should chat with Sporer about CWalker v Muncy. Also – with the landscape of 1b changing, where does Matt Olson fit in when he returns?

4:10
slowdive: Muncy or Kike at 2b?  I have both but need to cut one.  I thought muncy would be better than this.

4:10
Brad Johnson: Muncy is playing well…

4:10
Brad Johnson: 30 HR pace, 121 wRC+, solid run production

4:11
Brad Johnson: And I’m still happily taking Muncy over Walker

4:11
Brad Johnson: I think the better discussion is Walker or Aguilar

4:12
Brad Johnson: They’re both serious whiff rate guys

4:12
Brad Johnson: Muncy makes a nice amount of contact and happens to take K’s by working counts

4:12
Ryan: Disregarding position, cut one of Pinder, Gardner or Vogelbach?

4:13
Brad Johnson: Depends on your time horizon. Gardner will eventually lose regular playing time, but I like him more than Pinder right this moment.

4:13
Bobby Cox: Do we see Pache or Waters this season if Inciarte doesn’t hit better?

4:14
Brad Johnson: I could be wrong, but neither of those players looks to be within a year of the majors. Pache’s defense gives him a nice floor though

4:14
Brad Johnson: I don’t recall if either is on the 40-man offhand, that would help

4:14
Andrew Triggskaedekaphobia: Would you give Tim Anderson plus an SP4 type for Kris Bryant in a 12 team H2H?

4:14
Brad Johnson: Instantly. I’m not a believer in Anderson’s hot start

4:14
Camargoat: Do you think Rodgers gets called up before the ASB?

4:14
Brad Johnson: At this rate, yes.

4:15
Brad Johnson: He’s finally putting up some top prospect quality numbers

4:15
Brad Johnson: Contact rate is way up

4:15
Brad Johnson: And power too

4:15
Brad Johnson: But, he’s in one of the friendliest minor league venues with a juiced baseball

4:16
Vslyke: Is Nick Pivetta worth keeping in an NA slot, or should I go grab a more conventional prospect? Has been good in AAA

4:16
Brad Johnson: It’s a matter of preference and alternative

4:16
Brad Johnson: if you can stash a guy like Yordan Alvarez, I would prefer that

4:17
Brad Johnson: but if it’s a longer term prospect, then hold Pivetta and pick up the prospect later

4:17
Zion: Is Eduardo Rodriguez droppable in a 13 team league?

4:17
Brad Johnson: No, he’s pitching well

4:18
Brad Johnson: Something we all need to get used to is that good pitchers are going to have their share of 9.00 ERA games

4:18
Rock City: I keep reading about all the good on Niko Goodrum…does he have 20/20 in him?

4:18
Brad Johnson: Home runs, yes.

4:18
Brad Johnson: I think 20 SBs is a big stretch

4:18
Brad Johnson: 10 to 15 maybe (and that’s with him already at 3)

4:19
Hayward: Dejong: hold or sell high?

4:19
Brad Johnson: I’d sell, especially in a OBP format. For AVG, I think you’ll find the offers aren’t actually better than him

4:19
Yay for YA: So do you think Yordan Alvarez may arrive by next month?

4:20
Brad Johnson: He’s a top prospect repeating Triple-A with a 200 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 88 PA. Plus nice BB and K rates.

4:20
Brad Johnson: The only thing working against him is the Astros deeeeep depth chart

4:20
Brad Johnson: That said, he should be ahead of Kyle Tucker now

4:21
Brad Johnson: So yea, I think he’s on the cusp of forcing a call up

4:21
Dan: Am I missing something with Kris Bryant?  Is last year making people impatient, or is me discounting last year making me too patient?

4:21
Brad Johnson: It’s the combination of last season plus a slow start this year

4:22
Brad Johnson: Tommy La Stella already has 23 home runs

4:22
Brad Johnson: Bryant only has 3

4:22
Brad Johnson: It’s not a great look. That said, I’m basically on board.

4:22
Jumbo: Trade Bieber for 2B Moustakas or stick with my current Cano/Odor combo of terror?

4:23
Brad Johnson: Moose is same asset class so stick with what you’ve got

4:23
MeDeKe: Is it worth dealing M. Chapman plus, for Bryant, in a deep 10-tm forever dynasty? Starting to wonder how close in value they are.

4:23
Brad Johnson: Chapman is better

4:23
Brad Johnson: And I just got done “liking” Bryant

4:24
ohjohnny: How worried should I be about Hiura’s terrible BB/K rates in AAA? What kind of line do you think he could produce right now with a starting role in the bigs?

4:24
Brad Johnson: Not sure about the exact line, but he’d probably be an above average hitter

4:24
Zumba: So you’re in on Yordan Alvarez?

4:24
Brad Johnson: Yes.

4:24
Roger: If Martin Perez shoves against Houston, is it time to take a long, deep look at him?

4:24
Brad Johnson: We can look at guys at any time

4:25
Brad Johnson: Perez is certainly better than he’s been, but I’m not seeing a must-own guy for 12-team mixed

4:25
Dan: What do you expect out of Travis Shaw at this point?

4:25
Brad Johnson: 115 wRC+, similar output to 2018 pace

4:26
Jimbo: French Onion or Wonton? Choose your soup

4:26
Brad Johnson: A good french onion is a thing of beauty

4:26
Brad Johnson: Wonton soup is always salt water with dough balls

4:26
Jeff: What’s your take on Travis Shaw’s struggles?

4:27
Brad Johnson: More specifically, he still has elevated SwStr% and K% without any change to his batted ball quality of plate discipline

4:28
Brad Johnson: So, without doing more research, I would guess his quality of opponent is higher than normal.

4:28
Brad Johnson: And he’s still terrible vs LHP

4:28
Chuck: Hey Brad, which side would you take – Flaherty for C.Archer and Cano? (14 tm, 5×5, 12 Keepers)

4:28
Brad Johnson: Flaherty

4:28
Orange: Brad, I’m bleeding at SS. I’d like to trade Chris Paddack for a SS – who do you think I can target for him?

4:28
Brad Johnson: Bogaerts?

4:29
Brad Johnson: Mondesi owner might be edgy

4:29
Brad Johnson: Seager or Gleyber maybe

4:29
Brad Johnson: I’m looking to aim high on name brand but perhaps take back a slow-ish starter

4:29
Fleff: Do you like Y.Alvarez more than M.Olsen now for just this season?

4:30
Brad Johnson: No, only because the Astros depth pile creates problems. Olson will play when he’s back, although hamate injuries can linger

4:30
Turgid: The game in KC tonight is not going to happen right?

4:30
Brad Johnson: Not based on the report I just saw

4:30
Scottie Pippen: Should I be starting Omar Narvaez everyday at this point? It’s either him or Wilson Ramos.

4:30
Brad Johnson: Pretty much

4:30
Ryan: what do you expect from Canning RoS?

4:30
Brad Johnson: Let’s get through one start first

4:31
Brad Johnson: We don’t even know for sure if this is more than a spot appearance

4:31
Prospect Help: Hi Brad.  In a vacuum, who has the higher ceiling/floor long term -> Kiura or Y Alvarez?  This is for beyond this year, of course.   Thanks.

4:32
Brad Johnson: Personally, I like Alvarez more. I’d also reach out to Shelly, Hulet, and McDongenhagen for opinions.

4:32
Bryant’sBattingGlasses: Do you expect Alex Gordon to be an RBI leader at the end of the season like he is now

4:32
Brad Johnson: Definitely

4:32
John Wayne: Should you rather fight one horse sized duck or 100 duck sized horses?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Obviously the smaller horses. I just need to get some body armor for my Achilles and I’m golden

4:33
Brad Johnson: One peck from a horse-size duck is game over

4:33
j: What do you expect form Elvis Andrus for the rest of the season?

4:33
Brad Johnson: Something like his 2017 numbers

4:34
Barry Bonds: (Forgot to mention: 12-team) Need to fill an OF spot in my H2H 6×6 (OBP & QS added). My Hyun-Jin Ryu for his Domingo Santana seem fair?

4:34
Brad Johnson: Sure!

4:34
Dan: What’s the most important skill for a league commissioner to have?

4:34
Brad Johnson: Availability

4:34
Brad Johnson: patience

4:34
Brad Johnson: a long fuse

4:34
Nathan: Have you customized your dashboard for player stats? If so, what statistics do you prioritize when doing a quick analysis of a hitter or pitcher?

4:35
Brad Johnson: I have. If I remember, I’ll do something on my Patreon about it. It’s best shown via video.

4:35
Guest: What’s your feel for Rengifo?

4:35
Brad Johnson: For fantasy purposes, an upgrade on Fletcher

4:35
Brad Johnson: (when he plays)

4:35
Brad Johnson: I think Fletcher is maybe a little better in a real world sense

4:35
Brad Johnson: And I love the Marco Scutaro act he’s putting on

4:36
Yo yo yo: What’s up with Altuve ?  Really drafted him for batting average   Is there a reason to believe that he is selling out for more power and the avg won’t rebound?

4:37
Brad Johnson: Nope. “What’s up” is he has a 27.3% HR/FB instead of his career 8.5% HR/FB

4:37
Brad Johnson: Relatedly, he has a .225 BABIP

4:37
Brad Johnson: Those numbers will trade places, and he’ll hit around .300.

4:37
Kiermaier’s Dashing Good Looks: Wonton soup = dirty water butter soup, convince me otherwise

4:37
Brad Johnson: This isn’t debate club

4:38
Brad Johnson: I don’t have to argue positions I don’t believe

4:38
Anonymous: 20-team 5×5. Tony Wolters (coors stretch coming up) or Danny Jansen?

4:38
Brad Johnson: Full season, Jansen

4:38
Brad Johnson: If you’ve rostered both and just want a short term play, Wolters.

4:38
Porcho Villa: Would you deal T. Anderson to get J. Baez? 5×5 OBP

4:38
Brad Johnson: In a heartbeat

4:38
Brad Johnson: I’d trade 4 Andersons for 1 Baez

4:39
Kirk: Worth stashing Jesus Luzardo in a H2H 16-Team? I’m 4-0, and trying to think ahead.

4:39
Brad Johnson: I suspect there are better stashes out there.

4:39
Brad Johnson: Zac Gallen may be closer to the majors for example.

4:39
Zach: Which side do you prefer, DeGrom and Rizzo or Buehler and JoRam?

4:39
Brad Johnson: Ooh that one’s sufficiently tough!

4:40
Brad Johnson:

Which?

deGrom + Rizzo (59.6% | 62 votes)
 
Buehler + JoRam (40.3% | 42 votes)
 

Total Votes: 104
4:40
Will: Drop Schwarber for Nate Lowe?

4:40
Brad Johnson: I think you can

4:40
Brad Johnson: It’s a bold move

4:40
Brad Johnson: I’m assuming this is a shallow format

4:40
Porcho Villa: Pick one Rendon fill-in: H. Dozier, E. Escobar, Y. Diaz, M. Franco

4:40
Brad Johnson: Any but Franco

4:42
Kiermaier’s Dashing Good Looks: What are your thoughts on Tyler Beede getting the call?

4:42
Brad Johnson: Very excited!

4:43
Brad Johnson: He crushed the minors at a time when the juiced ball ruined pitchers’ lives

4:43
bob: are you worried about machado at all? think his HR totals will be lower than were used to because of the park he’s in?

4:43
Brad Johnson: No, Petco isn’t really that HR suppressant anymore

4:43
Brad Johnson: But I think it plays that way a little early in the season

4:43
Brad Johnson: I’ve certainly seen some off the bat HRs land on the warning track there

4:44
Brad Johnson: I’m not worried about Machado

4:44
Brad Johnson: Just traded for him in an 18-teamer – Moose + Wil Myers

4:44
Brad Johnson: (and now I have to start Stevie Wilkerson!)

4:45
Andrew: Do you have any insight into Matt Chapman’s huge contact improvement?  Is he just hot to start the season or has he changed in some fundamental way?

4:45
Brad Johnson: Some of it is soft opponents. Some of it is he’s really friggin good

4:45
Dan: What’s the biggest mistake people make at this point in the season?

4:45
Brad Johnson: They give up

4:45
Turgid: As a Mondesi owner, there is no way in hell I’d trade him for Paddack

4:46
Christopher Nolan Reimold: Josh Naylor has obviously been creating some hype, but what do you make of his batted ball profile? Seems very subpar

4:46
Brad Johnson: The stat page doesn’t stand out, I’ll grant you that

4:46
Brad Johnson: The scouting report sure does

4:46
Nickles: Lindor for Jose Ramirez. Which side you like more?

4:46
Brad Johnson: Lindor

4:46
Roger: Beede or Canning ros?

4:46
Brad Johnson: Beede

4:46
Brad Johnson: they’re both potential difference makers

4:47
Ken Giles Right Hook: Aaron Nola’s FIP matches his ERA (don’t look it’s ugly). Prime time in a dynasty league to buy low right? I’m looking to make a run next season and am offering Grandal and Strahm

4:47
Brad Johnson: The issue is his command. He’s missing his spots. Seems to indicate a mechanical issue or injury.

4:47
Brad Johnson: If it’s not a health problem, then I think he’ll figure it out

4:48
Anonymous: FAAB% for Cano? 12-team pts

4:48
Brad Johnson: very low

4:48
Brad Johnson: Replacement level is pretty high at 2B

4:48
Matt: Is it still too early to relegate Kikuchi to a #4-5 starter with low K% and few QS due to innings limits (including that whole usage as an opener every few weeks)?

4:48
Brad Johnson: No, I’m not impressed for fantasy purposes

4:48
Justin: how bad should I feel for trading Andrus for C.Taylor before the season started in a dynasty(I was short of OF)

4:48
Brad Johnson: 🙁

4:49
Anonymous: TB @ KC PPD

4:49
Yo yo yo: 12 tm h2h do you prefer narvaez or r.chirinos ROS?

4:49
Brad Johnson: Narvaez

4:49
Done?: What is up with Justin Turner, who now hits singles and only singles? Is there any chance of a rebound here?

4:49
Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s fine

4:49
Scottie Pippen: With Starling Marte reinstated today and back in the lineup, who should I cut to make room for him off the IL: Marcus Semien or Billy Hamilton?

4:49
Brad Johnson: Ham

4:50
Brad Johnson: Going back to Turner, there isn’t much in the peripherals to incite panic. If he was a nobody, I’d be screaming BUY.

4:50
howdy: In a 12 tm OBP/QS league im really needing pitching. Thoughts on mondesi for taillon and franmil

4:50
Brad Johnson: I like it

4:50
Brad Johnson: It’s a bold gamble as Mondesi and Franmil have massive variance

4:50
Brad Johnson: (and Taillon is a pitcher)

4:51
Limpton: Do you own any Julio Rodriquez shares? Is there a case for NOT trying to pick him up this early in dynasty?

4:51
Brad Johnson: I missed out sadly

4:51
Brad Johnson: Should be owned in deep formats

4:52
Brad Johnson: I have to wrap up on time again this week, sorry folks. We’ll be shutting down promptly at 5:00

4:52
G: Flaherty or Paddack + Boyd?

4:53
Brad Johnson: Flaherty

4:53
Beede: Just read up on your Beede love – him or Eickhoff in a vacuum?

4:53
Brad Johnson: Beede

4:53
Johnny5Alive: any thoughts on this ty france kid in san diego? was absolutely killing the ball in the minors

4:53
Brad Johnson: Yea, somewhere…

4:54
Brad Johnson: Here it is, gimme a minute before clicking, I need to turn off the paywall.

4:54
Brad Johnson: Tatis injury could be a status upgrade

4:54
Thecuracaokid: Is there any site with data on the the strength of schedule presented on a montly basis? I’m already preparing for the play-off

4:55
Brad Johnson: That’s pretty premature

4:55
FangraphFan: Fangraph pages sometimes – actually quite often – forward to very dangerous looking spam pages. Is it just me or Fangraph is aware of this issue?

4:55
Brad Johnson: We are aware

4:55
Brad Johnson: Unfortunately, it’s just what happens if you use ads on your site

4:56
Brad Johnson: A side effect of google’s monopoly

4:56
Brad Johnson: I think a membership fixes the issue

4:56
Brad Johnson: I don’t have any problems

4:56
Disgruntled Owner: I would like to take a moment to thank Berrios, Glasnow and Stroman for waiting until I _finally_ cut bait to start performing like I always hoped they would

4:56
Brad Johnson: Haha

4:56
Tribe Time: Prefer J. Polanco Or semien the rest of the way?

4:56
Brad Johnson: Polanco, barely

4:56
Disgruntled Owner: Soroka upside: #2 fantasy SP?

4:56
Brad Johnson: Sure, as upside

4:56
Micah: Andrus or Rosario ROS?

4:57
Brad Johnson: Eddie > Elvis > Amed

4:57
Porcho Villa: Which awful C do you prefer: Zunino, Vasquez, Alfaro, Phegley

4:57
Brad Johnson: Zunino or Alfaro

4:57
Uncle Spike: Thoughts on Luis Robert?  Could we be seeing a meteoric rise like Juan Soto?  He’s been a beast.

4:57
Brad Johnson: I don’t think so

4:57
Brad Johnson: It’s all .553 BABIP and .467 ISO

4:58
Brad Johnson: he just need a promotion from High-A

4:58
Jump on Home: Putting in a vote for the dashboard video on Patreon, FWIW

4:58
Brad Johnson: Been meaning to do that for a while.

4:58
Ken Giles Right Hook: Hot take: MacKenzie Gore ends up being a better SP than both Casey Mize AND Forrest Whitley

4:58
Brad Johnson: Luke warm at best

4:59
lefty: should i start hunter dozier vs snell today?

4:59
Brad Johnson: No, they’re already postponed

4:59
Johnny5Alive: What would you bid on Beede in a NL only, $100 FAAB cap? catch is over $10, and the contract gets locked in for next season as well (or you spend at least $50 in real money to buy him out).

4:59
Brad Johnson: I think $9 is reasonable.

4:59
Dwight Evans: The red Sox stink.  That is sll

4:59
guest: strahm & devers for suarez in a dynasty league, which side wins?

5:00
Brad Johnson: Playing with different time horizons here.

5:00
Brad Johnson: Suarez wins now, Devers a few years from now.

5:00
Brad Johnson: And that’s a wrap. See y’all next week.

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/30/2019 by Brad Johnson!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

Comments are closed.