Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/24/2020

Brad Johnson: Here we go. Real actual baseball news to discuss! But first, some advertisements…

Brad Johnson:

1. I’m running a best ball auction on Fantrax tomorrow night at 7pm ET. Presently, there are only 2 participants. Follow the instructions herein to get an invite: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/best-ball-auction-results-plus-second-dr…

Brad Johnson: 2. The Real MLB League kicks off tonight with our first simulated day (no games). Opening Day is on Thursday!

Brad Johnson: 3. I just posted the ninth episode of my podcast, Juiced Balls, featuring D.B. Firstman. https://www.patreon.com/posts/35195750

Brad Johnson: 4. Patrons are nice in these trying times. Now, let’s chat!

Thor: How mad are my fantasy owners right now?

Thor:

Brad Johnson: Most TJs for pitchers take about 15 to 16 months.

Brad Johnson: So that April timeline is only if he decides he wants to blow his arm out again heading into free agency. I think the best case scenario for the Mets is he comes back as a reliever late in the year. He might even get non-tendered, although teams usually err on the side of rostering these guys.

Thor owner: Quite mad

Brad Johnson: My only share of Thor was in the first best ball auction.

CC: I keep reading that middling MLB teams may try to go for it this year due to higher variance playoff odds. Should this apply to H2H leagues as well? Went into a shallow 16 team H2H auction with 25% less auction dollars due to prior trades assuming to punt for keepers, but now debating whether to try to go for it despite the disadvantage?!

Brad Johnson: Absolutely. It applies even more in fantasy than reality.

Pat’s Bat: I cut thor and bid him up to almost his cost year before dropping out.  Now I feel better about overpaying for Eduardo Rodriguez.

Brad Johnson: Wait until his knee falls off again.

Anonymous: Solve this: 2020 roto limits stay at 1400 IP / 162 GP, despite shortened season. (This will happen in Yahoo! leagues) Trying to hit the IP limit gives a huge boost to W and K, but devastates ERA and WHIP. How do you take advantage? Does your draft split change?

Brad Johnson: If you’re in an auction, you can adjust by pumping a ton of money into quality pitchers.

Brad Johnson: For a snake draft, I think you’ll have to just settle for falling short and making each start/sit decision on the merits.

Brad Johnson: If it’s a fairly shallow league, you can still emphasize pitching early.

Pat’s Bat: I’m the commisioner of my dynasty league.  We just had our auction which is usually followed immediately by a slow draft of prospects/rookie eligible players.  This year I see no reason to rush the prospect draft with everything up in the air but I’m getting pressure to start it from players who want a distraction.  Wait or draft now?

Brad Johnson: I think if your leaguemates uniformly want to do it, you might as well. No sense giving people more information than normal for this particular sub-draft.

Brad Johnson: Likewise, if you’re running a league and the participants want to delay, there’s no harm in doing so.

Brad Johnson: Each decision can either be reached collectively or by commissioner fiat. There’s no wrong answer between drafting now or later. You’re just working with a different information set.

Roy: Does Kopech start in the rotation? Does he throw enough innings per start to qualify for QS regularly? Would Freddy Peralta be a better $1 draft where SV+Hld replaces SV and QS replaces W?

Brad Johnson: I prefer the Kopech dart throw personally. He’s dripping with talent whereas Peralta is a bit of a one-trick pony. It’s possible Kopech doesn’t open the year in the rotation just because the White Sox is fairly deep, but it’s also pretty clear to me he’s their second best SP.

Roger: Dylan Carlson, Nate Pearson or Mackenzie Gore? Who would you take in a 6×6 OBP/QS dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: Those are fantastic options.

Brad Johnson: I think the answer is probably situational. Especially when pondering pitcher or hitter in a dynasty, you have to consider where you are on the win curve so to speak.

George: Hi!  Thanks for doing these, stay safe!

George: 12 Tm, 5×5 (obp) otherwise standard.  Are Buxton, Kyle Tucker, and Andrus enough for me to be middle of the pack in SBs?  I semi-punted but would like to be a little competitive there for cheap

Brad Johnson: I think that works as a starting point, but you’re going to need to be putting a lot of effort into it. Streaming guys like Dyson for instance.

Brad Johnson: I’m probably not suppose to link offsite, but I *just* wrote a monster steals article for rotoworld. AL goes up on Friday.

Brad Johnson: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/saves-and-steals/all-about-steals-na…

Gavelin the Javelin: Hey Brad! Looking for baseball content–I have OOTP 15, but am wondering about pulling the trigger on OOTP 21. Is the difference in gameplay enough to make it worth it? Sell me on the purchase.

Brad Johnson: Absolutely. The updated rosters alone are worth the modest investment. You can also play Perfect Team and Tournaments, both of which are fun mini-games that can be managed with a couple minutes a day. Or you can deep dive them.

Brad Johnson: I didn’t start playing until 19 so I don’t know exactly what else is missing from 15

Brad Johnson: I’ve noticed a lot of subtle but really meaningful improvements between 20 and 21 though so the difference between 15 and 21 must be staggering

Brad Johnson: The scouting experience is really upgraded.

Brad Johnson: There are some gameplay improvements too

Brad Johnson: And they’ve added the 3 batter minimum

Cody: I traded Mike Trout for Gerrit Cole and Yordan Alvarez in a CBS points keeper league. I’ve been horribly ridiculed by my league-mates for it (not really but kinda). I’m banking Cole essentially matching Trouts point production on his own. I’m not that dumb right? Right?

Brad Johnson: That seems reasonable enough.

Brad Johnson: Like maybe you shoulda got a Liam Hendriks type too, but that’s nothing to fuss over.

Brad Johnson: That said, I still would have preferred the Trout side because it’s Trout. And you have to remember points leagues are always a comparison to positional replacement level. So SP and OF points are not apples to apples.

Brad Johnson: That said, I haven’t looked at anything for CBS points this year. So maybe Cole IS more valuable than Trout. I’d have to investigate.

Anonymous: feels like we don’t get to be cute at drafts with an 81-game season likely. not enough time to patch holes on the wire. Paying for catchers / closers this year?

Brad Johnson: Absolutely. Closers especially are moving up my boards. Which is a shame because my early draft strategy was to get saves later.

Brad Johnson: So those drafts are looking a lot hinkier than I originally thought.

Guest: someone cut hunter harvey in a 12 team daily 5×5 obp h2h league.  should i drop sam hilliard for him?  closers are always a dog fight in this league

Brad Johnson: That’s a tough call without knowing more.

Brad Johnson: It’s weird for me to say this because I’ve written a lot of negative copy about him, but I’m a pretty stout Givens believer

Brad Johnson: So, linking those last two comments together, grabbing Hunter might be getting a little cute, especially if you need to spike a bargain HR/SB double-threat.

Ken: 6×6 obp, slg.. (keep 8).. do you think Trent Grisham can be a top 40 OF at some point?

Brad Johnson: Top 40 seems like a stretch. If we’re not excluding multi-eligible guys, that’s a very good player.

Brad Johnson: That’s Dahl, Kingery, Tucker territory by ADP

Brad Johnson: I won’t say it’s impossible. But it is a bad bet.

quarantina: does yordan get OF eligibility with a short season? it seems unlikely and I just don’t know if I can justify him clogging the Utility slot when I want to keep ohtani too

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he will. Not even confident he would have gotten it without the delay.

Brad Johnson: But… it’s unlikely you can cut him (or Ohtani) even if you only have one spot available for the pair.

Brad Johnson: At worst, you keep him and trade.

Gavelin the Javelin: Are you playing Project GOAT?

Brad Johnson: I am not familiar with that. Explain yourself.

Eric: Keeper League Question – I can keep up to 5 players total. Players can be kept for 3 years in this round.
Trevor Story – 16th
Brandon Woodruff – 18th
Jose Berrios – 22nd
Aaron Judge – 23rd
Bo Bichette – 24th
Ronald Acuna – 25th
Ketel Marte – 21st

Brad Johnson: Story, Acuna, Marte, Judge for sure

Brad Johnson: Kinda leaning Bichette myself, but I understand if you might want a pitcher.

I am Betts: What happens to Betts next year if we have a 100 or so game season. If free agency is delayed a year, this make him 1 year older and therefore probably less total money. If he isn’t a free agent, how would his 2021 salary be impacted.

Brad Johnson: This will need to be negotiated between the league and union, but I can promise you Betts will be a free agent or else we aren’t going to be watching MLB for a very long time.

Brad Johnson: There’s no way the union will stand for whatever is leftover not counting for a service year.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Might we see double headers on summer weekends once again???

Brad Johnson: Yes, this seems likely

Pat’s Bat: With a short season starters should throw a higher percentage of innings than last year, right? (compared to relievers)

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure that logic follows.

Gavelin the Javelin: Project GOAT is Eno Sarris and The Athletic’s fantasy baseball project–basically, create a roto team from 1980 to 2019 using no more than 6 player seasons from each decade, no more than 1 player per team.

Brad Johnson: Interesting concept. I’ll probably stick to running best ball auctions and OOTP (which Eno’s involved in).

Vegan Man!: At the end of a 10 team standard best ball. Catch is you only draft 20 players (all starters). Do I draft a 7th SP (Boyd, Puk, Urquidy), or 3rd Closer (Givens)? Thank you, and be safe!

Brad Johnson: I’d grab Boyd or Puk

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Has Sale been cut on yet?  I know Beede has been in and out of the OR.

Brad Johnson: Pretty sure he’s yet to schedule a date.

Ryne: In a 10 team redraft league 6×6 h2h (W & QS) I have Flaherty, Berrios, Fried, Kyle Hendricks, Luke Weaver, McCullers, Mitch Keller, and a flyer on Pearson. Did I get enough SP?

Ryne: Dynasty 16 team h2h 6×6 OBP/QSI traded Mathew Boyd for JD Davis. Pretty even trade imo and was able to draft Urquirdy right after the trade. What’s your take on the trade and do you think Davis gets full time ABs?

Brad Johnson: I think you’ll be fine with those pitchers in 10-team. The challenge with those shallow formats is that everybody has a good looking staff before OD

Brad Johnson: so it’s decided by who gets a couple breakouts and avoids the grenades.

Pat’s Bat: Is there a site where my league can plug in our fantasy rosters and play simulated seasons while we wait?

Brad Johnson: There are various simulation softwares like OOTP and Diamond Mind Baseball (DMB), but they aren’t really geared toward a fantasy experience.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Do you see Davis, Hudson or Jiminez keeping their job all, shortened season?

Brad Johnson: Maybe I missed some news, but my understanding is Doolittle is still the Nationals closer with Harris next in line.

Brad Johnson: (Hudson is terrible)

Brad Johnson: Jimenez is pretty safe

Brad Johnson: He can be as bad as he wants. The next best is… Buck Farmer?

Edwin: How do you feel about possibility of Spencer Howard’s joining PHI rotation. Should I drop Kikuchi(3-4mph added velocity in this spring) for him? Our league is always very deep in SP resources

Brad Johnson: I love Spencer personally.

Brad Johnson: I already thought he was going to “break camp” with the Phillies via a April 11 or so debut.

Brad Johnson: Their rotation is a glaring weakness, and he’s the perfect patch to it.

Rollie’s Mustache: My dynasty league mates want to increase IL spots from 2 to 3 (or even 4) this year. It’s a 14-teamer with 25-man rosters. Are there pros and cons with more IL spots that I’m not thinking of, or is it fine with whatever the majority is good with?

Brad Johnson: Those are pretty shallow rosters for a dynasty. I’m used to rostering 40+ with no IL.

Brad Johnson: 2 IL is pretty taut. I’d increase it to 5 IL personally.

Brad Johnson: Sure, some owners will stash a few extra injured guys, but they’ll usually get thrown back to the waivers as their regulars hit the skids.

Vegan Man!: You think the short season hurts or helps Berti? PA projection? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Oh man, that could go a few different directions.

Brad Johnson: It’s a shame for Berti because he’s pretty old for his experience. Getting 450 good PA could have made his career.

Brad Johnson: The Marlins have just enough firepower to pretend to contend.

Brad Johnson: And that should involve a lot of Berti early.

Brad Johnson: So, I think he’ll make his own destiny in that regard.

Dave: Jasson Dominguez is a future Acuna type.. T or F

Brad Johnson: this is not the comp I would use for Dominguez

Brad Johnson: And it’s a little irresponsible to make any comps for fantasy purposes right now. He’s oozing with physical talent, but we need to get some sense of him in games before we can start thinking about the shape of his output.

Anonymous: is Mitch Keller gonna be full-on death to ratios (Lamet / Robbie tier) or just a Wins drain this year?

Brad Johnson: It’s a distinct possibility. There seems to be a missing piece for Keller. I watched one of his spring starts and came away pretty worried.

Brad Johnson: We know the Ks will be there. And I usually cheat to Ks and let the ratios fall where they may. If you’re getting high K guys, you’re giving yourself a chance to make your own good luck.

Vegan Man!: Fences moved in a bit in SF, think Belt finally pops 20 HR (or at least a 20 HR pace over the short season)? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: In an alternate universe, Brandon Belt spent his career with some team like the Reds and was a celebrated superstar.

Brad Johnson: That park and division absolutely swallowed him whole.

Brad Johnson: I do like Belt as a sneaky late pick. However, it’s not really the fence distance that’s the problem in SF.

Brad Johnson: The park is designed such that it negates the very strong prevailing winds.

Brad Johnson: So unless they did something to allow the winds to play, it’ll still be very pitching friendly.

Ed: Are you buying any shares of Dylan Carlson for 2020 + beyond?

Brad Johnson: Absolutely, I bought them January/February 2019 in most cases

Vegan Man!: Carlos Correa is consistently drafted after pick 115 in the drafts I’ve done so far (and I just got him at 139). Is this too far of a fall? Thanks

Brad Johnson: Seems drastic.

Brad Johnson: I’ve tried to acquire him in any/all dynasty settings on the tenant that young, injury prone position players almost never stay injury prone.

Brad Johnson: No luck thus far. Nobody wants to be the schmuck to sell low.

Coop: I inherited an Otto team caught in between – good pitching and some nice bats, but zero bench depth with a hoarding of prospects. I have $36 deGrom and $32 Verlander.  What level/quantity of prospects should I be targeting? deGrom for Luzardo and Kelenic?  Too much, not enough? I’m new to Otto, so struggling with learning curve.

Brad Johnson: Not enough. Prospects are a dime a dozen.

Brad Johnson: If your league values them (most do), try to trade into better 2020 players rather than going into a full rebuild.

Brad Johnson: Rebuilding in ottoneu is for schmucks

Brad Johnson: (I’ve rebuilt twice so I guess I’m a schmuck)

Anonymous: buying any Trey Mancini feel-good shares w/the discount in a 12-teamer or just wishing him good health and staying away?

Brad Johnson: Big time buying

Brad Johnson: Price will readjust soon. Take advantage.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: who emerges in STL with the closer’s job?  Brebbia a potential?

Brad Johnson: Not really, I think it’s between Gallegos, Helsley, CMart, and Reyes when the dust clears

Brad Johnson: And depending how long this delay goes, Hicks could inch his way back into the picture.

Rollie’s Mustache: Will FAAB strategies be affected by a shortened season? Generally speaking, maybe be more aggressive early? And do you think there will be a wider variance of any particular category in a shorter season, like AVG, vs a closer cluster of things like HR and SV?

Brad Johnson: FAAB should definitely be more aggressive.

Brad Johnson: Every category has its potential for distorted results over any given 60 day period.

Brad Johnson: I’d have to think about that more. It’s a good topic to spend some time digesting.

Brad Johnson: Time to start wrapping up. Bit of a slow chat behind the scenes, I’ve hit nearly every question.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Keep 1 Mahle, Pablo Lopez, Dobnak

Brad Johnson: House Elf! (Dobbie)

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Inciarte hold any value in ATL this year with the addition of Ozuna?

Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s a platoon OFer, but he’s a good source of non-terrible SBs vs RHP.

Brad Johnson: You already had to sit him against LHP even if he was starting and you had nobody else to use.

Brad Johnson: He was that bad.

Dan: When do you expect Andrew Vaughn to compete for a starting job in Chicago? Think his skills can translate at the next level?

Brad Johnson: Well I initially thought late-2020 so I’ll say early 2021 now.

Vegan Man!: Voit or Mancini in standard roto? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Oof, gonna cop out and say same asset class.

Brad Johnson: Both very undervalued for the stats

Ryne: 16 team h2h 6×6 OBP. I’m considering trading Garret Cole and JD Davis for Juan Soto. It’s all the guy will really take an ace and a good bat. Give me your take in the trade. Am I paying way to much? I do have pretty good depth at SP. thanks

Brad Johnson: That’s a fair trade

Brad Johnson: I don’t have a strong preference for either side.

Vegan Man!: McCullers, Urquidy, Boyd, Musgrove, Puk – choose 1 in standard roto

Brad Johnson: I’ll say… Boyd.

Brad Johnson: Not Musgrove I think is the best answer

Brad Johnson: And Puk may be very good, but the A’s rotation is pretty solid without him

Brad Johnson: Gotta wait for Fiers, Manaea, or Bassitt to fumble

Brad Johnson: And I know Bassitt sounds like the odd man, but I’m pretty sure he’s better than Fiers and Manaea.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Free Dominic Smith…does he have any value left after Alonso stole his job?

Brad Johnson: Only if he can worm his way free.

Brad Johnson: He’s a really bad OF

Brad Johnson: And the Mets don’t really need *worse* defensive OFers

Brad Johnson: They’re already a little hinky out there.

Brad Johnson: With the 26-man roster divided 13/13

Brad Johnson: the Mets have no incentive to cut him loose

Brad Johnson: So he’s kinda trapped in a seldom-used 6th OFer, PH role.

Brad Johnson: The other detail is teams don’t really know when the DH is going to show up in the NL. They all assume it’ll happen, but it’s one of those things that could happen as soon as Opening Day or 15 years from now.

Brad Johnson: The next expansion phase is probably the best excuse.

Brad Johnson: The league can be set up very regionally if we discard AL/NL affiliations.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Alec Mills was having good ST.  Any chance they move Chatwood to the bullpen?

Brad Johnson: I’ve stashed some Mills shares. Chatwood will still get the first shot at a rotation job though.

Brad Johnson: Mills being the 6th SP, they’ll definitely need him sooner or later.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: That’s all I have for ya.  Thanks for answering my questions.

leafs falling: great chats, glad to be in or read after

Brad Johnson: Adios amigos.