Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3/24/2020
by Brad Johnson
March 24, 2020
The chat is complete!
| 4:00 |
: Here we go. Real actual baseball news to discuss! But first, some advertisements…
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| 4:01 |
:
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| 4:02 |
: 2. The Real MLB League kicks off tonight with our first simulated day (no games). Opening Day is on Thursday!
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| 4:03 |
: 3. I just posted the ninth episode of my podcast, Juiced Balls, featuring D.B. Firstman. https://www.patreon.com/posts/35195750
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| 4:04 |
: 4. Patrons are nice in these trying times. Now, let’s chat!
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| 4:04 |
: How mad are my fantasy owners right now?
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| 4:04 |
:
New York Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future, sources tell ESPN. The procedure will keep him out until at earliest April 2021 and likely into the summer months.
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| 4:04 |
: Most TJs for pitchers take about 15 to 16 months.
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| 4:05 |
: So that April timeline is only if he decides he wants to blow his arm out again heading into free agency. I think the best case scenario for the Mets is he comes back as a reliever late in the year. He might even get non-tendered, although teams usually err on the side of rostering these guys.
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| 4:06 |
: Quite mad
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| 4:06 |
: My only share of Thor was in the first best ball auction.
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| 4:07 |
: I keep reading that middling MLB teams may try to go for it this year due to higher variance playoff odds. Should this apply to H2H leagues as well? Went into a shallow 16 team H2H auction with 25% less auction dollars due to prior trades assuming to punt for keepers, but now debating whether to try to go for it despite the disadvantage?!
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| 4:07 |
: Absolutely. It applies even more in fantasy than reality.
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| 4:07 |
: I cut thor and bid him up to almost his cost year before dropping out. Now I feel better about overpaying for Eduardo Rodriguez.
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| 4:08 |
: Wait until his knee falls off again.
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| 4:08 |
: Solve this: 2020 roto limits stay at 1400 IP / 162 GP, despite shortened season. (This will happen in Yahoo! leagues) Trying to hit the IP limit gives a huge boost to W and K, but devastates ERA and WHIP. How do you take advantage? Does your draft split change?
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| 4:08 |
: If you’re in an auction, you can adjust by pumping a ton of money into quality pitchers.
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| 4:09 |
: For a snake draft, I think you’ll have to just settle for falling short and making each start/sit decision on the merits.
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| 4:09 |
: If it’s a fairly shallow league, you can still emphasize pitching early.
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| 4:09 |
: I’m the commisioner of my dynasty league. We just had our auction which is usually followed immediately by a slow draft of prospects/rookie eligible players. This year I see no reason to rush the prospect draft with everything up in the air but I’m getting pressure to start it from players who want a distraction. Wait or draft now?
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| 4:10 |
: I think if your leaguemates uniformly want to do it, you might as well. No sense giving people more information than normal for this particular sub-draft.
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| 4:10 |
: Likewise, if you’re running a league and the participants want to delay, there’s no harm in doing so.
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| 4:11 |
: Each decision can either be reached collectively or by commissioner fiat. There’s no wrong answer between drafting now or later. You’re just working with a different information set.
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| 4:11 |
: Does Kopech start in the rotation? Does he throw enough innings per start to qualify for QS regularly? Would Freddy Peralta be a better $1 draft where SV+Hld replaces SV and QS replaces W?
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| 4:12 |
: I prefer the Kopech dart throw personally. He’s dripping with talent whereas Peralta is a bit of a one-trick pony. It’s possible Kopech doesn’t open the year in the rotation just because the White Sox is fairly deep, but it’s also pretty clear to me he’s their second best SP.
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| 4:12 |
: Dylan Carlson, Nate Pearson or Mackenzie Gore? Who would you take in a 6×6 OBP/QS dynasty league?
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| 4:13 |
: Those are fantastic options.
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| 4:13 |
: I think the answer is probably situational. Especially when pondering pitcher or hitter in a dynasty, you have to consider where you are on the win curve so to speak.
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| 4:14 |
: Hi! Thanks for doing these, stay safe!
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| 4:14 |
: 12 Tm, 5×5 (obp) otherwise standard. Are Buxton, Kyle Tucker, and Andrus enough for me to be middle of the pack in SBs? I semi-punted but would like to be a little competitive there for cheap
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| 4:15 |
: I think that works as a starting point, but you’re going to need to be putting a lot of effort into it. Streaming guys like Dyson for instance.
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| 4:16 |
: I’m probably not suppose to link offsite, but I *just* wrote a monster steals article for rotoworld. AL goes up on Friday.
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| 4:16 |
: Hey Brad! Looking for baseball content–I have OOTP 15, but am wondering about pulling the trigger on OOTP 21. Is the difference in gameplay enough to make it worth it? Sell me on the purchase.
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| 4:17 |
: Absolutely. The updated rosters alone are worth the modest investment. You can also play Perfect Team and Tournaments, both of which are fun mini-games that can be managed with a couple minutes a day. Or you can deep dive them.
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| 4:17 |
: I didn’t start playing until 19 so I don’t know exactly what else is missing from 15
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| 4:18 |
: I’ve noticed a lot of subtle but really meaningful improvements between 20 and 21 though so the difference between 15 and 21 must be staggering
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| 4:19 |
: The scouting experience is really upgraded.
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| 4:20 |
: There are some gameplay improvements too
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| 4:20 |
: And they’ve added the 3 batter minimum
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| 4:21 |
: I traded Mike Trout for Gerrit Cole and Yordan Alvarez in a CBS points keeper league. I’ve been horribly ridiculed by my league-mates for it (not really but kinda). I’m banking Cole essentially matching Trouts point production on his own. I’m not that dumb right? Right?
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| 4:21 |
: That seems reasonable enough.
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| 4:21 |
: Like maybe you shoulda got a Liam Hendriks type too, but that’s nothing to fuss over.
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| 4:22 |
: That said, I still would have preferred the Trout side because it’s Trout. And you have to remember points leagues are always a comparison to positional replacement level. So SP and OF points are not apples to apples.
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| 4:23 |
: That said, I haven’t looked at anything for CBS points this year. So maybe Cole IS more valuable than Trout. I’d have to investigate.
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| 4:23 |
: feels like we don’t get to be cute at drafts with an 81-game season likely. not enough time to patch holes on the wire. Paying for catchers / closers this year?
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| 4:24 |
: Absolutely. Closers especially are moving up my boards. Which is a shame because my early draft strategy was to get saves later.
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| 4:24 |
: So those drafts are looking a lot hinkier than I originally thought.
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| 4:24 |
: someone cut hunter harvey in a 12 team daily 5×5 obp h2h league. should i drop sam hilliard for him? closers are always a dog fight in this league
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| 4:25 |
: That’s a tough call without knowing more.
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| 4:25 |
: It’s weird for me to say this because I’ve written a lot of negative copy about him, but I’m a pretty stout Givens believer
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| 4:26 |
: So, linking those last two comments together, grabbing Hunter might be getting a little cute, especially if you need to spike a bargain HR/SB double-threat.
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| 4:26 |
: 6×6 obp, slg.. (keep 8).. do you think Trent Grisham can be a top 40 OF at some point?
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| 4:26 |
: Top 40 seems like a stretch. If we’re not excluding multi-eligible guys, that’s a very good player.
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| 4:27 |
: That’s Dahl, Kingery, Tucker territory by ADP
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| 4:27 |
: I won’t say it’s impossible. But it is a bad bet.
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| 4:27 |
: does yordan get OF eligibility with a short season? it seems unlikely and I just don’t know if I can justify him clogging the Utility slot when I want to keep ohtani too
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| 4:28 |
: I don’t think he will. Not even confident he would have gotten it without the delay.
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| 4:28 |
: But… it’s unlikely you can cut him (or Ohtani) even if you only have one spot available for the pair.
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| 4:28 |
: At worst, you keep him and trade.
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| 4:28 |
: Are you playing Project GOAT?
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| 4:29 |
: I am not familiar with that. Explain yourself.
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| 4:29 |
: Keeper League Question – I can keep up to 5 players total. Players can be kept for 3 years in this round. Trevor Story – 16th Brandon Woodruff – 18th Jose Berrios – 22nd Aaron Judge – 23rd Bo Bichette – 24th Ronald Acuna – 25th Ketel Marte – 21st |
| 4:30 |
: Story, Acuna, Marte, Judge for sure
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| 4:30 |
: Kinda leaning Bichette myself, but I understand if you might want a pitcher.
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| 4:30 |
: What happens to Betts next year if we have a 100 or so game season. If free agency is delayed a year, this make him 1 year older and therefore probably less total money. If he isn’t a free agent, how would his 2021 salary be impacted.
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| 4:31 |
: This will need to be negotiated between the league and union, but I can promise you Betts will be a free agent or else we aren’t going to be watching MLB for a very long time.
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| 4:32 |
: There’s no way the union will stand for whatever is leftover not counting for a service year.
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| 4:32 |
: Might we see double headers on summer weekends once again???
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| 4:32 |
: Yes, this seems likely
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| 4:32 |
: With a short season starters should throw a higher percentage of innings than last year, right? (compared to relievers)
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| 4:33 |
: I’m not sure that logic follows.
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| 4:33 |
: Project GOAT is Eno Sarris and The Athletic’s fantasy baseball project–basically, create a roto team from 1980 to 2019 using no more than 6 player seasons from each decade, no more than 1 player per team.
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| 4:34 |
: Interesting concept. I’ll probably stick to running best ball auctions and OOTP (which Eno’s involved in).
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| 4:34 |
: At the end of a 10 team standard best ball. Catch is you only draft 20 players (all starters). Do I draft a 7th SP (Boyd, Puk, Urquidy), or 3rd Closer (Givens)? Thank you, and be safe!
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| 4:34 |
: I’d grab Boyd or Puk
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| 4:34 |
: Has Sale been cut on yet? I know Beede has been in and out of the OR.
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| 4:35 |
: Pretty sure he’s yet to schedule a date.
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| 4:35 |
: In a 10 team redraft league 6×6 h2h (W & QS) I have Flaherty, Berrios, Fried, Kyle Hendricks, Luke Weaver, McCullers, Mitch Keller, and a flyer on Pearson. Did I get enough SP?
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| 4:35 |
: Dynasty 16 team h2h 6×6 OBP/QSI traded Mathew Boyd for JD Davis. Pretty even trade imo and was able to draft Urquirdy right after the trade. What’s your take on the trade and do you think Davis gets full time ABs?
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| 4:35 |
: I think you’ll be fine with those pitchers in 10-team. The challenge with those shallow formats is that everybody has a good looking staff before OD
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| 4:36 |
: so it’s decided by who gets a couple breakouts and avoids the grenades.
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| 4:36 |
: Is there a site where my league can plug in our fantasy rosters and play simulated seasons while we wait?
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| 4:37 |
: There are various simulation softwares like OOTP and Diamond Mind Baseball (DMB), but they aren’t really geared toward a fantasy experience.
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| 4:37 |
: Do you see Davis, Hudson or Jiminez keeping their job all, shortened season?
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| 4:37 |
: Maybe I missed some news, but my understanding is Doolittle is still the Nationals closer with Harris next in line.
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| 4:37 |
: (Hudson is terrible)
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| 4:38 |
: Jimenez is pretty safe
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| 4:38 |
: He can be as bad as he wants. The next best is… Buck Farmer?
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| 4:38 |
: How do you feel about possibility of Spencer Howard’s joining PHI rotation. Should I drop Kikuchi(3-4mph added velocity in this spring) for him? Our league is always very deep in SP resources
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| 4:38 |
: I love Spencer personally.
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| 4:39 |
: I already thought he was going to “break camp” with the Phillies via a April 11 or so debut.
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| 4:39 |
: Their rotation is a glaring weakness, and he’s the perfect patch to it.
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| 4:39 |
: My dynasty league mates want to increase IL spots from 2 to 3 (or even 4) this year. It’s a 14-teamer with 25-man rosters. Are there pros and cons with more IL spots that I’m not thinking of, or is it fine with whatever the majority is good with?
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| 4:40 |
: Those are pretty shallow rosters for a dynasty. I’m used to rostering 40+ with no IL.
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| 4:41 |
: 2 IL is pretty taut. I’d increase it to 5 IL personally.
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| 4:41 |
: Sure, some owners will stash a few extra injured guys, but they’ll usually get thrown back to the waivers as their regulars hit the skids.
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| 4:41 |
: You think the short season hurts or helps Berti? PA projection? Thanks!
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| 4:41 |
: Oh man, that could go a few different directions.
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| 4:42 |
: It’s a shame for Berti because he’s pretty old for his experience. Getting 450 good PA could have made his career.
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| 4:42 |
: The Marlins have just enough firepower to pretend to contend.
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| 4:42 |
: And that should involve a lot of Berti early.
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| 4:43 |
: So, I think he’ll make his own destiny in that regard.
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| 4:43 |
: Jasson Dominguez is a future Acuna type.. T or F
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| 4:43 |
: this is not the comp I would use for Dominguez
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| 4:44 |
: And it’s a little irresponsible to make any comps for fantasy purposes right now. He’s oozing with physical talent, but we need to get some sense of him in games before we can start thinking about the shape of his output.
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| 4:45 |
: is Mitch Keller gonna be full-on death to ratios (Lamet / Robbie tier) or just a Wins drain this year?
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| 4:46 |
: It’s a distinct possibility. There seems to be a missing piece for Keller. I watched one of his spring starts and came away pretty worried.
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| 4:46 |
: We know the Ks will be there. And I usually cheat to Ks and let the ratios fall where they may. If you’re getting high K guys, you’re giving yourself a chance to make your own good luck.
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| 4:47 |
: Fences moved in a bit in SF, think Belt finally pops 20 HR (or at least a 20 HR pace over the short season)? Thanks!
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| 4:48 |
: In an alternate universe, Brandon Belt spent his career with some team like the Reds and was a celebrated superstar.
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| 4:48 |
: That park and division absolutely swallowed him whole.
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| 4:48 |
: I do like Belt as a sneaky late pick. However, it’s not really the fence distance that’s the problem in SF.
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| 4:49 |
: The park is designed such that it negates the very strong prevailing winds.
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| 4:49 |
: So unless they did something to allow the winds to play, it’ll still be very pitching friendly.
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| 4:49 |
: Are you buying any shares of Dylan Carlson for 2020 + beyond?
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| 4:50 |
: Absolutely, I bought them January/February 2019 in most cases
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| 4:50 |
: Carlos Correa is consistently drafted after pick 115 in the drafts I’ve done so far (and I just got him at 139). Is this too far of a fall? Thanks
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| 4:50 |
: Seems drastic.
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| 4:51 |
: I’ve tried to acquire him in any/all dynasty settings on the tenant that young, injury prone position players almost never stay injury prone.
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| 4:51 |
: No luck thus far. Nobody wants to be the schmuck to sell low.
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| 4:51 |
: I inherited an Otto team caught in between – good pitching and some nice bats, but zero bench depth with a hoarding of prospects. I have $36 deGrom and $32 Verlander. What level/quantity of prospects should I be targeting? deGrom for Luzardo and Kelenic? Too much, not enough? I’m new to Otto, so struggling with learning curve.
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| 4:51 |
: Not enough. Prospects are a dime a dozen.
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| 4:52 |
: If your league values them (most do), try to trade into better 2020 players rather than going into a full rebuild.
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| 4:52 |
: Rebuilding in ottoneu is for schmucks
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| 4:52 |
: (I’ve rebuilt twice so I guess I’m a schmuck)
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| 4:52 |
: buying any Trey Mancini feel-good shares w/the discount in a 12-teamer or just wishing him good health and staying away?
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| 4:52 |
: Big time buying
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| 4:53 |
: Price will readjust soon. Take advantage.
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| 4:53 |
: who emerges in STL with the closer’s job? Brebbia a potential?
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| 4:53 |
: Not really, I think it’s between Gallegos, Helsley, CMart, and Reyes when the dust clears
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| 4:53 |
: And depending how long this delay goes, Hicks could inch his way back into the picture.
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| 4:54 |
: Will FAAB strategies be affected by a shortened season? Generally speaking, maybe be more aggressive early? And do you think there will be a wider variance of any particular category in a shorter season, like AVG, vs a closer cluster of things like HR and SV?
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| 4:54 |
: FAAB should definitely be more aggressive.
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| 4:55 |
: Every category has its potential for distorted results over any given 60 day period.
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| 4:55 |
: I’d have to think about that more. It’s a good topic to spend some time digesting.
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| 4:56 |
: Time to start wrapping up. Bit of a slow chat behind the scenes, I’ve hit nearly every question.
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| 4:56 |
: Keep 1 Mahle, Pablo Lopez, Dobnak
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| 4:57 |
: House Elf! (Dobbie)
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| 4:57 |
: Inciarte hold any value in ATL this year with the addition of Ozuna?
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| 4:57 |
: Yea, he’s a platoon OFer, but he’s a good source of non-terrible SBs vs RHP.
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| 4:58 |
: You already had to sit him against LHP even if he was starting and you had nobody else to use.
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| 4:58 |
: He was that bad.
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| 4:58 |
: When do you expect Andrew Vaughn to compete for a starting job in Chicago? Think his skills can translate at the next level?
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| 4:58 |
: Well I initially thought late-2020 so I’ll say early 2021 now.
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| 4:58 |
: Voit or Mancini in standard roto? Thanks!
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| 4:58 |
: Oof, gonna cop out and say same asset class.
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| 4:59 |
: Both very undervalued for the stats
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| 4:59 |
: 16 team h2h 6×6 OBP. I’m considering trading Garret Cole and JD Davis for Juan Soto. It’s all the guy will really take an ace and a good bat. Give me your take in the trade. Am I paying way to much? I do have pretty good depth at SP. thanks
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| 4:59 |
: That’s a fair trade
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| 4:59 |
: I don’t have a strong preference for either side.
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| 5:00 |
: McCullers, Urquidy, Boyd, Musgrove, Puk – choose 1 in standard roto
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| 5:00 |
: I’ll say… Boyd.
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| 5:00 |
: Not Musgrove I think is the best answer
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| 5:00 |
: And Puk may be very good, but the A’s rotation is pretty solid without him
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| 5:01 |
: Gotta wait for Fiers, Manaea, or Bassitt to fumble
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| 5:01 |
: And I know Bassitt sounds like the odd man, but I’m pretty sure he’s better than Fiers and Manaea.
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| 5:01 |
: Free Dominic Smith…does he have any value left after Alonso stole his job?
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| 5:01 |
: Only if he can worm his way free.
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| 5:01 |
: He’s a really bad OF
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| 5:02 |
: And the Mets don’t really need *worse* defensive OFers
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| 5:02 |
: They’re already a little hinky out there.
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| 5:02 |
: With the 26-man roster divided 13/13
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| 5:02 |
: the Mets have no incentive to cut him loose
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| 5:03 |
: So he’s kinda trapped in a seldom-used 6th OFer, PH role.
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| 5:03 |
: The other detail is teams don’t really know when the DH is going to show up in the NL. They all assume it’ll happen, but it’s one of those things that could happen as soon as Opening Day or 15 years from now.
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| 5:04 |
: The next expansion phase is probably the best excuse.
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| 5:04 |
: The league can be set up very regionally if we discard AL/NL affiliations.
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| 5:04 |
: Alec Mills was having good ST. Any chance they move Chatwood to the bullpen?
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| 5:05 |
: I’ve stashed some Mills shares. Chatwood will still get the first shot at a rotation job though.
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| 5:05 |
: Mills being the 6th SP, they’ll definitely need him sooner or later.
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| 5:05 |
: That’s all I have for ya. Thanks for answering my questions.
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| 5:06 |
: great chats, glad to be in or read after
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| 5:06 |
: Adios amigos.
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