Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/26/2019

Brad Johnson: Ok, we’ll get started in a few moments.

Vic: Would you keep Almora in the 27th round of a 15 team mixed 5 x 5?

Brad Johnson: If there is no other opportunity cost, I’d probably strongly consider locking in the young OFer. That’s right around his ADP in a redraft, but his age maybe makes him a bit more interesting in a keep-for-awhile setting

DynastyStarter: How much auction $ would you spend on guys like Vlad/Soto/Acuna if you could keep them at zero cost forever after the initial start up dynasty draft? Stars/scrubs seems like the logical approach to me…Get as many as possible and piece together from there?

Brad Johnson: I can’t say for certain without seeing all your settings, but my inclination is to go heavy for those guys

Yuca Yuca: In a 12-team keep forever (up to 7), do you hold onto Ohtani and Mondesi?

Brad Johnson: It depends who you’re cutting. They’re keepable.

DynastyStarter: My previous Q is 14 team, H2H andnot very deep

Brad Johnson: Yea… go heavy on elite assets. You can always trade one later for like 6 core performers.

Vic: Buxton’s 10 RBIs in 1st two games must be a Spring Training record….if he has a strong 4 week run in ST, do you move him up to a Top 100 player?

Brad Johnson: So here’s the thing about Byron Buxton, he has always crushed minor league pitching. It’s the transition to MLB stuff he doesn’t handle

Brad Johnson: There’s almost nothing Buxton can do statistically to move him up in my rankings. Now, meaningful mechanical changes could convince me to take a chance on him.

resumeman: Who would you prefer for 2019 and going forward – Piscotty or Pham?

Brad Johnson: Pham, but they’re not too far apart for me.

brenbren: Any early surprises from spring training?  Guys that catch your eye? Changed swings?

Brad Johnson: I haven’t caught anything yet. Chris Paddack was in midseason form today

Uncle Hulka: I can freeze Nola for $18 in a 10 team auction league. Should I?

Brad Johnson: Definitely

resumeman: Do you think Laureano is legit, or may he be just a flash in the pan (with a helluv an arm!)

Brad Johnson: Pretty legit

Brad Johnson: And he’s going to play because of the defense

Hello: Would you rather keep Chapman (for 19th round pick) or Conforto (for 22nd)?

Brad Johnson: Conforto

Luke: In my dynasty league, I traded Trout ($65) and Stripling ($5) for Rizzo ($45), Trea Turner ($10), and Kluber ($25). Good trade or bad?

Brad Johnson: Not my favorite swap tbh

Brad Johnson: Feels like you should have been getting a Stripling, not giving one

Cletus: I can keep Brantley or Andujar. About the same price, both keepable for multiple years. Is Andujar a legit piece or was last year way above mean? What do you think RE brantley and injuries

Brad Johnson: I’m not overly concerned about Brantley’s health for this season, but he’s definitely more of a risk to not take the field than Andujar

Brad Johnson: As much of a downer I am on Andujar, I think you have to keep him over Brantley for age and upside.

Yuca Yuca: Sorry, meant to add more context before submitting… In a 12-team keep forever (up to 7), do you hold onto Ohtani and Mondesi? A little more context: we play H2H with 3 OF slots, and already have Trout, Soto, Acuna. Additionally, I have Albies at 2B. Mondesi and Ohtani would be keepers 5 and 6 (5th and 6th rounds). We are an OBP league, so Mondesi’s value obviously takes a hit, but the rest of the cats are standard 5×5. Ohtani is also obviously a tough asset to hold onto for 2019, but beyond, could be fantastic. I have no SP keepers… so my first thought would be to try to trade for an SP, but trades for SP are notoriously difficult in this league.

Brad Johnson: Again, that seems fine given that you haven’t presented any alternatives besides making a trade. Since you have a solid baseline of SB, you could shop Mondesi for a different hitter.

Matt: ZiPS has Conforto and Springer with the same comp, and forecasts them for essentially the same season. Are you seeing that kind of performance coming from Conforto?

Brad Johnson: In short, yes.

Brad Johnson: I’m not 100% positive this is true, but I probably prefer Conforto to Springer.

Brad Johnson: On a pure talent basis, I know I do

Brad Johnson: It’s the surrounding casts, opponents, and ballpark that lend some room to wonder

Rick Sanchez: Do I recall right that Kershaw is someone who you’d eye as a buy low in a dynasty? (Assuming the seller would sell low)

Brad Johnson: Yes, and you can aim VERY low right now

Steve: League is switching from a starts limit (180) to an innings limit (1500) this year. How substantial is the change, and how can I exploit it?

Brad Johnson: One of the biggest things is building in as many RP innings as possible. While reliever wins are inconsistent and chunky, they typically average about the same W/IP as non-elite SP.

Brad Johnson: And their ratios are sooo much better than SP

Brad Johnson: The other thing you need to consider is that the K category is now K/9

Brad Johnson: Assuming most of your leaguemates hit the IP cap

Brad Johnson: Many platforms allow you to go over the IP cap by running out a bunch of SP on the day you go over

Brad Johnson: So that’s a way to sneak in 1530 IP.

gurps: H2H 16 teams 5*5 Category | 5 Keepers | last spot go to Springer or Snell?

Brad Johnson: Snell.

Matt: Glad to see most of the player outlooks have been populated – Brandon Woodruff isn’t up yet though. Do you see him as having a spot in that rotation – and as a fantasy relevant starter?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he’s a lock to start, but it’s worth taking a $1 flier in 12-team deep rosters and deeper

KB: Is Matt Davidson a solid target in 20-team dynasty… Is this two-way thing real?

Brad Johnson: No. And no.

Brad Johnson: He’s just trying to be a non-nightmare garbage innings guy.

Brad Johnson: I think teams will actually have more of these types in the future – journeyman types they don’t care about on 1-year deals

Brad Johnson: and once in awhile, one of them will find something magical like Jansen’s cutter

Uncle Hulka: Seen a TON of Stripling love. Is it warranted?

Brad Johnson: Stripling is good. And… https://www.patreon.com/posts/23826186

Bartolo: How much would your draft strategy change in an Only-league where you keep 8 for up to five years?   If they switch leagues you lose them.

Brad Johnson: You mean from a normal Only or from a redraft? Or a keeper? What’s the baseline!

Brad Johnson: Typically, it’s more important to stick to values and spread the money around in Only formats

Brad Johnson: One way to do this is to bid directly to your reserve price rather than trying to save $1-2 on a guy

Brad Johnson: Only leagues take a LOT more prep…

Sam: AL Only – Who would you keep $6 Meadows or $8 Jake Bauers?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Meadows

Brad Johnson: I assume there are some future keeper considerations involved though

Brad Johnson: Bauers may be the better pure 2019 play

Burd: Correa or Eloy Jimenez in a 12 team dynasty with standard settings?

Brad Johnson: Ooh tricky.

Brad Johnson: I’ll call that a coin flip

Mike Soroka’s Ligaments: Curse you baseball gods.. that rotation spot is mine *pounds fits to the heavens*  Who shall start in my place as the braves SP5?!

Brad Johnson: Seems like it’s Touki’s job unless somebody unexpected steps forward. Is Luiz Gohara all the way back to healthy?

Brad Johnson: He is.

Brad Johnson: Still probably Touki.

Ryan: first year 16 team keeper (5×5 H2H) How soon should I go after SPs, and where would you value Vladito in this format?

Brad Johnson: Without knowing the keeper rules, I’ll say that one of your options is to land multiple aces – as many as you can really – in the first 4 rounds. Vladito probably goes between pick 10 and 25.

Big TW: Hey Brad. Is there any hope for Mitchell White to make an impact?

Brad Johnson: Maybe if the Dodgers have 8 injuries. He’s not very high on the depth chart. Could maybe play up in relief?

Dungeon Master: 12 team mixed H2H 5×5, offense is strong everywhere (betts, harper, arenado, J-Ram, cruz, donaldson et al.) except for 1B. Luke Voit and Tyler White a decent enough duo to mix and match and hold it down for now?

Brad Johnson: I love that duo

Brad Johnson: Pretty good chance one of them is fringe top 100

The Bat-Man: Mad Bum’s increased velocity so far this spring enough to move hin up your rankings?

Brad Johnson: Not yet. I haven’t really looked into it yet, but you can’t always trust these spring guns

Dano: Aside from bad first start, why no Ponce de Leon talk to replace Carlos Martinez?

Brad Johnson: I don’t know many people who think he’s a SP.

Shaw: Why isn’t Travis Shaw ranked higher at 2B?  Guy will hit 30+ HR.

Brad Johnson: My guess is because there’s a risk he simply doesn’t start against LHP

Brad Johnson: But I don’t do the rankings.

Peppercorns: Have you ever played played in NFBC Main, and do you view it as the most prestigious league that is publicly accessible?

Brad Johnson: I have not, and yes, that’s probably true.

Shenanigans: RE: Kershaw above, Cain for Kershaw smell “low” enough in an OPS H2H Dynasty? Aim lower? I have Robles and D. Santana on my bench, so I could likely survive the OF hit.

Brad Johnson: Aim lower initially. Or for more back in exchange for Cain.

Chris Taylor: An I worth taking as a MI this year?

Brad Johnson: Yes, depending on the format. You’ll play and post some numbers.

Bud Selig: With the rumors about a new stadium in Long Beach for the Angels, I had a sudden and shocking vision of Trout and Harper hitting B2B one day, perhaps once they rid themselves of Pujols and his laughable contract.  Crazy talk?

Brad Johnson: I’m sure Phillies fans are wondering what Long Beach has to do with it.

ohioastrosfan: what should my general strategy be for a 12 tm roto but OPS instead of avg? Spreadsheet that weighs HR more?

Brad Johnson: No, use OPS directly

Brad Johnson: It will favor HR hitters

Brad Johnson: Joey Gallo is a monster…

Muncy: Can Muncy repeat his 2018?

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t say a repeat is in order. That’s almost like asking Voit to repeat.

Brad Johnson: He’ll be very good.

Kershaw: Glasnow for Kershaw? Would you take that?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: But I don’t think Glasnow is especially viable

Brad Johnson: A lot of my colleagues think he’s actually good

Joe: Joining a start up H2H league and helping choose categories. Offense has been relatively easy – OBP, R, SLG, RBI, and SB. Pitching not so much. Currently at ERA, WHIP, SV+H. Our goal is to make sure RPs aren’t overly valuable. How would you approach choosing the final two categories to make sure an RP only strategy isn’t the best one

Joe: Sorry hit enter too quick how would you choose the last two pitching categories to keep RPs and SPs on a level playing field?

Brad Johnson: If you’re on FanTrax, you can use weighting and formulas

Brad Johnson: For example, SV+1/2H

Brad Johnson: I’d stick to the basics with W and K

Brad Johnson: Or dump holds

Brad Johnson: Which restricts the supply of RP who contribute to that category

Auction: What is your preferred nomination strategy in an auction?

Brad Johnson: First choice is stars and scrubs focused on hitters

Brad Johnson: But I use a wide variety depending on the format and my portfolio

Broom: Any concern Kluber or Blackmon will fall off a cliff statistically?

Brad Johnson: That’s a risk with virtually any player, but it’s a small risk

Brad Johnson: More worried about Kluber than Blackmon, and I’m not actually worried about either of them

Maceo: Rebuilding Dynasty here……Ian Anderson/Adell for my Ozuna/Taillon….what say you?

Brad Johnson: Super weak offer

Brad Johnson: Taillon alone should net Adell and a second Adell and maybe a third Adell

Brad Johnson: You should also avoid SP prospects unless they’re right on the cusp like Whitley/Luzardo/Paddack

Brad Johnson: Of course, that costs more, but the attrition rate on guys like Anderson is absurd.

Brad Johnson: Ozuna for Adell/Anderson seems reasonable to me.

Carlos Martinez: Can Alex Reyes make them not miss me?

Brad Johnson: Very doubtful.

Brad Johnson: He’s going to be very limited on IP

Jones: OBP redraft league – do you prefer Carlos Santana or Jake Lamb for 2019?

Brad Johnson: Santana

Any hope?: How crazy am i that i think Giolito breaks out this year?

Brad Johnson: He’s not completely dead. You can hope.

Brad Johnson: Just don’t pay

Brad Johnson: Should be free-ish

Pat: Trying to decide on last bench spot from these guys: Kepler, Mancini, Domingo Santana, McNeil, Tucker, Adam Jones?

Brad Johnson: Without more context, gimme Domingo

Auction: What about NOMINATION strategy?

Brad Johnson: Ooh, that I could go into for days and days

Brad Johnson: Maybe I’ll write about it tomorrow if I remember.

Uncle Hulka: Is there anything more annoying in all of fantasy baseball than a closer pitching in a non-save situation and giving up 62 runs and 127 hits in two-thirds of an inning?

Dynasty: What would you offer to Kershaw owner right now as a start? Looking for a ballpark SP, bat, or milb option! Thanks.

Brad Johnson: I think the ideal is to send a basket of maybes. I don’t know your league depth so I don’t know what that might look like.

Brad Johnson: In my 20-teamer, I’d offer 3 guys like Greyson Jenista.

Brad Johnson: If you’re playing a 12-team, you might be offer Jo Adell or Bo Bichette because it’s so easy to find the next prospect.

Uncle Hulka: How many stars would you draft in a standard 5X5 auction league?

Brad Johnson: As many as fit on a roster. Usually about 5 or 6

Brad Johnson: The deeper the format, the more I move away from stars and scrubs

dprat: Have to cut three of the following from a fairly deep roster dynasty league with no costs: Sheffield, Paddack, A Wood, Cody Allen, Clint Frazier, T O’Neill, Margot, Jose Martinez, McMahon, Gregorius. Probably need to keep Allen to be competitive this year. And I have so many young players on my roster that I need some of those I keep to have a decent amount of PAs this year. So leaning toward cutting Sheffield, C Frazier, and one of the STL OFers. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Keep Paddack and Gregorius. And if you need Allen, then I guess you need Allen.

Brad Johnson: Oh, I read that wrong, thought it was keep 3, not cut 3

Brad Johnson: I think I’d cut Frazier, Sheffield, and McMahon. Wood and Margot on the short list to cut too.

Twinseeker: Do you believe Austin Hays arrives this season?

Brad Johnson: I’m willing to buy low

Brad Johnson: Not holding my breath

Karen Yost: Are you surprised at how low Fulmer is going? Analysts love his stuff and I see him in the 40-50s range on ranks but much lower in experts drafts.

Brad Johnson: Not surprised. He needs a breakout just to supply 1 category

Brad Johnson: Tigers won’t give him run support

Scotts Tots: FG Points: Eaton, Schwarber, or Joc Pederson?

Brad Johnson: If memory serves, Eaton if you think he stays on the field and Schwarber if not

Sam: Brad, I’m in a unique position. Coming off a rebuild, I have a total of two 4ths, three 5ths, and a total 18 picks in the first 10 rounds. A few teams have superior keepers to me, but, I’m definitely in pole position. How can I best use the frequency of my picks to control the draft?

Brad Johnson: You’re not picking THAT often. I don’t think you can really control the draft.

Brad Johnson: You’ll have a little more room to play ADP games though

Jon: In redraft roto league who are your next 3 hitters after Trout/Betts?

Brad Johnson: Want to know a secret? I don’t know. I’m indifferent between about 11 guys.

Brad Johnson: I just pick a different one every time

Dynasty: So Kyle Tucker for Kershaw in 12 team, 300 prospects rostered?

Brad Johnson: I might angle for a little more than Kershaw. Or else draw out negotiations until he’s actually on a mound for multiple starts

Mike: Who would you choose 1st in a dynasty league: Mize, Bart, VV Mesa, or Kirilloff?

Brad Johnson: EZ Kirilloff

Also Paul: Re: buying low on Kershaw, here’s hoping all of our leaguemates in friends/family leagues just see all of this negative press and avoid completely (im not super high on kershaw, but seems like the casual fantasy community has totally revolted on him)

Uncle Hulka: And then just use what’s left to buy $1 or $2?

Brad Johnson: This is wrt the number of stars I target in an auction. Yes.

Brad Johnson: But!

Brad Johnson: My job is to pick streamers. I’m paid to find good $1 players.

Brad Johnson: This is a strategy optimized to me. You probably want to be a LOT more balanced than me.

yo: dynasty on base instead of average, is soto better than acuna if i don’t really need the steals?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Although I question the idea of “not needing the steals”

Brad Johnson: I also question how long Acuna will actually steal bases

Mike: Altuve still a top 10 Roto option?

Brad Johnson: Yes, and he might be available anywhere between pick 5 and 18

Brad Johnson: Which hearkens back to my indifference between most of the non-Trout/Betts elite bats

Mike: Is Alvarado good enough to be my Roto RP1?

Ron: Trade Whitley in dynasty for a proven elite bat?

Brad Johnson: Whoops, didn’t answer Alvarado

Brad Johnson: I’m on the clock in 3 drafts…

Brad Johnson: Little scatterbrained

Brad Johnson: Anyway! Alvarado is fine IF you have nasty SP and hitters

Brad Johnson: You’re committing to finding SVs later

Brad Johnson: Which can work

Brad Johnson: It’s not without risk, but I’ve flat out won saves without drafting a single closer maybe a dozen times over the years.

Nancy Yost: Any thing Bundy can do this spring to get you to buy in?

Brad Johnson: Oh not really

Brad Johnson: Throw 5 mph harder?

ML: Favorite setup man in 5×5 Roto no holds league?

Brad Johnson: Ryan Pressly or Seranthony Dominguez

Shaun: Josh Bell or Miggy in roto with ops and avg?

Brad Johnson: Miggy

Brad Johnson: So… I’m sick and have those aforementioned draft picks to resolve. So I’m going to start wrapping up now.

Petey: Hampson vs Peraza with ops and avg in dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Peraza is a way safer play

Brad Johnson: There’s no guarantee Hampson ever starts. The Rockies actually ARE a second division team, and they’re still intentionally blocking him.

Brad Johnson: And they tend to keep their prospects even though they don’t use ’em

Brad Johnson: They’re weird.

Miggy: Who should I take 1st in my Roto minor league draft? Bichette, Kirilloff, Whitely, Adell?

Brad Johnson: Ooh that’s a nice list.

Brad Johnson: Not Adell

Brad Johnson: I prefer bats 9 times out of 10, but if your roster is light on SP, Whitley could be worth the gamble

Scotts Tots: Ryan Pressly, Jace Fry, Jose Castillo, Keone Kela, Carl Edwards Jr., Richard Rodriguez. One can’t be rostered… Which one?

Brad Johnson: Fry, Rodriguez, Edwards

Brad Johnson: Just make sure you keep Pressly and Kela actually

Brad Johnson: The others are just guys. Without researching, Rodriguez looks like the low man.

Walker: Carrasco/Severino seem like they have worrisome inconsistency with some pitches (four-seamer/slider). Help me set better odds about them finding a consistent feel all season.

Brad Johnson: No. You’re right that they have some inconsistency. Carrasco’s fastball is a below average pitch. Sevvy’s is more variable because his command wanders.

Jack: How can you do a chat and be on the clock in 3 drafts? Guess that’s why you are a pro and I am not.  C.Martinez or A.Reyes in a dynasty?

Brad Johnson: They’re slow drafts. They’re just going to have to wait.

Brad Johnson: I’m sure there’s a Greek parable for this question.

Brad Johnson: I would need to do a lot more research to perceive which is the better long term play

Brad Johnson: My shrug answer is Reyes

Alex the great: What kind of prospect package should I expect for Machado in dynasty? Rebuilding and looking to trade him for a haul.

Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth. In a 12-team, something like Eloy, Whitley, Kirilloff, and Lewis.

Brad Johnson: In a 20-team, maybe one of those and three more from the Jesus Sanchez/Ke’Bryan Hayes tier

Brad Johnson: And…I strongly recommend you try adding something to Machado for an even better MLBer like Acuna or Soto.

Brad Johnson: It’s usually better to aggregate than disaggregate, even when trying to rebuild

adnaP: Do you think Almora Jr. could ever break out and be roto or points relevant?

Brad Johnson: I won’t rule it out

Brad Johnson: It’s not especially likely or anything, but he’s young and has some talent.

Brad Johnson: And I think starting and stopping today’s chat on Almora is sufficiently weird.

Brad Johnson: Legit the first and last questions I received.