Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/26/2019
by Brad Johnson
February 26, 2019
We chatted, it’s true. Alas, the chat is complete. You can read a transcript though.
| 4:01 |
: Ok, we’ll get started in a few moments.
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| 4:02 |
: Would you keep Almora in the 27th round of a 15 team mixed 5 x 5?
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| 4:03 |
: If there is no other opportunity cost, I’d probably strongly consider locking in the young OFer. That’s right around his ADP in a redraft, but his age maybe makes him a bit more interesting in a keep-for-awhile setting
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| 4:04 |
: How much auction $ would you spend on guys like Vlad/Soto/Acuna if you could keep them at zero cost forever after the initial start up dynasty draft? Stars/scrubs seems like the logical approach to me…Get as many as possible and piece together from there?
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| 4:04 |
: I can’t say for certain without seeing all your settings, but my inclination is to go heavy for those guys
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| 4:05 |
: In a 12-team keep forever (up to 7), do you hold onto Ohtani and Mondesi?
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| 4:05 |
: It depends who you’re cutting. They’re keepable.
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| 4:05 |
: My previous Q is 14 team, H2H andnot very deep
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| 4:06 |
: Yea… go heavy on elite assets. You can always trade one later for like 6 core performers.
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| 4:06 |
: Buxton’s 10 RBIs in 1st two games must be a Spring Training record….if he has a strong 4 week run in ST, do you move him up to a Top 100 player?
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| 4:06 |
: So here’s the thing about Byron Buxton, he has always crushed minor league pitching. It’s the transition to MLB stuff he doesn’t handle
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| 4:07 |
: There’s almost nothing Buxton can do statistically to move him up in my rankings. Now, meaningful mechanical changes could convince me to take a chance on him.
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| 4:07 |
: Who would you prefer for 2019 and going forward – Piscotty or Pham?
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| 4:07 |
: Pham, but they’re not too far apart for me.
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| 4:07 |
: Any early surprises from spring training? Guys that catch your eye? Changed swings?
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| 4:08 |
: I haven’t caught anything yet. Chris Paddack was in midseason form today
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| 4:08 |
: I can freeze Nola for $18 in a 10 team auction league. Should I?
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| 4:08 |
: Definitely
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| 4:08 |
: Do you think Laureano is legit, or may he be just a flash in the pan (with a helluv an arm!)
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| 4:08 |
: Pretty legit
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| 4:08 |
: And he’s going to play because of the defense
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| 4:08 |
: Would you rather keep Chapman (for 19th round pick) or Conforto (for 22nd)?
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| 4:08 |
: Conforto
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| 4:09 |
: In my dynasty league, I traded Trout ($65) and Stripling ($5) for Rizzo ($45), Trea Turner ($10), and Kluber ($25). Good trade or bad?
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| 4:09 |
: Not my favorite swap tbh
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| 4:09 |
: Feels like you should have been getting a Stripling, not giving one
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| 4:10 |
: I can keep Brantley or Andujar. About the same price, both keepable for multiple years. Is Andujar a legit piece or was last year way above mean? What do you think RE brantley and injuries
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| 4:10 |
: I’m not overly concerned about Brantley’s health for this season, but he’s definitely more of a risk to not take the field than Andujar
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| 4:11 |
: As much of a downer I am on Andujar, I think you have to keep him over Brantley for age and upside.
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| 4:11 |
: Sorry, meant to add more context before submitting… In a 12-team keep forever (up to 7), do you hold onto Ohtani and Mondesi? A little more context: we play H2H with 3 OF slots, and already have Trout, Soto, Acuna. Additionally, I have Albies at 2B. Mondesi and Ohtani would be keepers 5 and 6 (5th and 6th rounds). We are an OBP league, so Mondesi’s value obviously takes a hit, but the rest of the cats are standard 5×5. Ohtani is also obviously a tough asset to hold onto for 2019, but beyond, could be fantastic. I have no SP keepers… so my first thought would be to try to trade for an SP, but trades for SP are notoriously difficult in this league.
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| 4:12 |
: Again, that seems fine given that you haven’t presented any alternatives besides making a trade. Since you have a solid baseline of SB, you could shop Mondesi for a different hitter.
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| 4:12 |
: ZiPS has Conforto and Springer with the same comp, and forecasts them for essentially the same season. Are you seeing that kind of performance coming from Conforto?
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| 4:12 |
: In short, yes.
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| 4:12 |
: I’m not 100% positive this is true, but I probably prefer Conforto to Springer.
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| 4:12 |
: On a pure talent basis, I know I do
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| 4:13 |
: It’s the surrounding casts, opponents, and ballpark that lend some room to wonder
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| 4:13 |
: Do I recall right that Kershaw is someone who you’d eye as a buy low in a dynasty? (Assuming the seller would sell low)
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| 4:13 |
: Yes, and you can aim VERY low right now
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| 4:13 |
: League is switching from a starts limit (180) to an innings limit (1500) this year. How substantial is the change, and how can I exploit it?
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| 4:14 |
: One of the biggest things is building in as many RP innings as possible. While reliever wins are inconsistent and chunky, they typically average about the same W/IP as non-elite SP.
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| 4:14 |
: And their ratios are sooo much better than SP
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| 4:14 |
: The other thing you need to consider is that the K category is now K/9
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| 4:15 |
: Assuming most of your leaguemates hit the IP cap
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| 4:15 |
: Many platforms allow you to go over the IP cap by running out a bunch of SP on the day you go over
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| 4:15 |
: So that’s a way to sneak in 1530 IP.
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| 4:15 |
: H2H 16 teams 5*5 Category | 5 Keepers | last spot go to Springer or Snell?
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| 4:15 |
: Snell.
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| 4:15 |
: Glad to see most of the player outlooks have been populated – Brandon Woodruff isn’t up yet though. Do you see him as having a spot in that rotation – and as a fantasy relevant starter?
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| 4:16 |
: I don’t think he’s a lock to start, but it’s worth taking a $1 flier in 12-team deep rosters and deeper
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| 4:16 |
: Is Matt Davidson a solid target in 20-team dynasty… Is this two-way thing real?
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| 4:16 |
: No. And no.
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| 4:17 |
: He’s just trying to be a non-nightmare garbage innings guy.
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| 4:17 |
: I think teams will actually have more of these types in the future – journeyman types they don’t care about on 1-year deals
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| 4:17 |
: and once in awhile, one of them will find something magical like Jansen’s cutter
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| 4:17 |
: Seen a TON of Stripling love. Is it warranted?
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| 4:18 |
: Stripling is good. And… https://www.patreon.com/posts/23826186
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| 4:18 |
: How much would your draft strategy change in an Only-league where you keep 8 for up to five years? If they switch leagues you lose them.
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| 4:18 |
: You mean from a normal Only or from a redraft? Or a keeper? What’s the baseline!
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| 4:19 |
: Typically, it’s more important to stick to values and spread the money around in Only formats
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| 4:19 |
: One way to do this is to bid directly to your reserve price rather than trying to save $1-2 on a guy
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| 4:19 |
: Only leagues take a LOT more prep…
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| 4:20 |
: AL Only – Who would you keep $6 Meadows or $8 Jake Bauers?
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| 4:20 |
: Gimme Meadows
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| 4:20 |
: I assume there are some future keeper considerations involved though
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| 4:20 |
: Bauers may be the better pure 2019 play
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| 4:20 |
: Correa or Eloy Jimenez in a 12 team dynasty with standard settings?
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| 4:20 |
: Ooh tricky.
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| 4:20 |
: I’ll call that a coin flip
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| 4:21 |
: Curse you baseball gods.. that rotation spot is mine *pounds fits to the heavens* Who shall start in my place as the braves SP5?!
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| 4:21 |
: Seems like it’s Touki’s job unless somebody unexpected steps forward. Is Luiz Gohara all the way back to healthy?
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| 4:22 |
: He is.
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| 4:22 |
: Still probably Touki.
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| 4:22 |
: first year 16 team keeper (5×5 H2H) How soon should I go after SPs, and where would you value Vladito in this format?
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| 4:23 |
: Without knowing the keeper rules, I’ll say that one of your options is to land multiple aces – as many as you can really – in the first 4 rounds. Vladito probably goes between pick 10 and 25.
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| 4:23 |
: Hey Brad. Is there any hope for Mitchell White to make an impact?
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| 4:24 |
: Maybe if the Dodgers have 8 injuries. He’s not very high on the depth chart. Could maybe play up in relief?
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| 4:24 |
: 12 team mixed H2H 5×5, offense is strong everywhere (betts, harper, arenado, J-Ram, cruz, donaldson et al.) except for 1B. Luke Voit and Tyler White a decent enough duo to mix and match and hold it down for now?
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| 4:25 |
: I love that duo
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| 4:25 |
: Pretty good chance one of them is fringe top 100
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| 4:25 |
: Mad Bum’s increased velocity so far this spring enough to move hin up your rankings?
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| 4:25 |
: Not yet. I haven’t really looked into it yet, but you can’t always trust these spring guns
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| 4:26 |
: Aside from bad first start, why no Ponce de Leon talk to replace Carlos Martinez?
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| 4:26 |
: I don’t know many people who think he’s a SP.
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| 4:26 |
: Why isn’t Travis Shaw ranked higher at 2B? Guy will hit 30+ HR.
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| 4:26 |
: My guess is because there’s a risk he simply doesn’t start against LHP
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| 4:26 |
: But I don’t do the rankings.
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| 4:26 |
: Have you ever played played in NFBC Main, and do you view it as the most prestigious league that is publicly accessible?
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| 4:27 |
: I have not, and yes, that’s probably true.
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| 4:28 |
: RE: Kershaw above, Cain for Kershaw smell “low” enough in an OPS H2H Dynasty? Aim lower? I have Robles and D. Santana on my bench, so I could likely survive the OF hit.
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| 4:28 |
: Aim lower initially. Or for more back in exchange for Cain.
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| 4:28 |
: An I worth taking as a MI this year?
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| 4:29 |
: Yes, depending on the format. You’ll play and post some numbers.
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| 4:29 |
: With the rumors about a new stadium in Long Beach for the Angels, I had a sudden and shocking vision of Trout and Harper hitting B2B one day, perhaps once they rid themselves of Pujols and his laughable contract. Crazy talk?
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| 4:29 |
: I’m sure Phillies fans are wondering what Long Beach has to do with it.
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| 4:29 |
: what should my general strategy be for a 12 tm roto but OPS instead of avg? Spreadsheet that weighs HR more?
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| 4:30 |
: No, use OPS directly
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| 4:30 |
: It will favor HR hitters
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| 4:30 |
: Joey Gallo is a monster…
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| 4:30 |
: Can Muncy repeat his 2018?
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| 4:30 |
: I wouldn’t say a repeat is in order. That’s almost like asking Voit to repeat.
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| 4:30 |
: He’ll be very good.
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| 4:30 |
: Glasnow for Kershaw? Would you take that?
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| 4:30 |
: Yes
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| 4:31 |
: But I don’t think Glasnow is especially viable
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| 4:31 |
: A lot of my colleagues think he’s actually good
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| 4:31 |
: Joining a start up H2H league and helping choose categories. Offense has been relatively easy – OBP, R, SLG, RBI, and SB. Pitching not so much. Currently at ERA, WHIP, SV+H. Our goal is to make sure RPs aren’t overly valuable. How would you approach choosing the final two categories to make sure an RP only strategy isn’t the best one
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| 4:31 |
: Sorry hit enter too quick how would you choose the last two pitching categories to keep RPs and SPs on a level playing field?
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| 4:32 |
: If you’re on FanTrax, you can use weighting and formulas
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| 4:32 |
: For example, SV+1/2H
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| 4:33 |
: I’d stick to the basics with W and K
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| 4:33 |
: Or dump holds
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| 4:33 |
: Which restricts the supply of RP who contribute to that category
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| 4:34 |
: What is your preferred nomination strategy in an auction?
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| 4:35 |
: First choice is stars and scrubs focused on hitters
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| 4:35 |
: But I use a wide variety depending on the format and my portfolio
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| 4:35 |
: Any concern Kluber or Blackmon will fall off a cliff statistically?
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| 4:36 |
: That’s a risk with virtually any player, but it’s a small risk
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| 4:36 |
: More worried about Kluber than Blackmon, and I’m not actually worried about either of them
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| 4:36 |
: Rebuilding Dynasty here……Ian Anderson/Adell for my Ozuna/Taillon….what say you?
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| 4:36 |
: Super weak offer
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| 4:36 |
: Taillon alone should net Adell and a second Adell and maybe a third Adell
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| 4:37 |
: You should also avoid SP prospects unless they’re right on the cusp like Whitley/Luzardo/Paddack
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| 4:37 |
: Of course, that costs more, but the attrition rate on guys like Anderson is absurd.
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| 4:38 |
: Ozuna for Adell/Anderson seems reasonable to me.
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| 4:38 |
: Can Alex Reyes make them not miss me?
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| 4:38 |
: Very doubtful.
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| 4:38 |
: He’s going to be very limited on IP
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| 4:38 |
: OBP redraft league – do you prefer Carlos Santana or Jake Lamb for 2019?
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| 4:38 |
: Santana
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| 4:38 |
: How crazy am i that i think Giolito breaks out this year?
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| 4:38 |
: He’s not completely dead. You can hope.
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| 4:39 |
: Just don’t pay
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| 4:39 |
: Should be free-ish
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| 4:39 |
: Trying to decide on last bench spot from these guys: Kepler, Mancini, Domingo Santana, McNeil, Tucker, Adam Jones?
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| 4:39 |
: Without more context, gimme Domingo
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| 4:39 |
: What about NOMINATION strategy?
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| 4:39 |
: Ooh, that I could go into for days and days
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| 4:39 |
: Maybe I’ll write about it tomorrow if I remember.
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| 4:39 |
: Is there anything more annoying in all of fantasy baseball than a closer pitching in a non-save situation and giving up 62 runs and 127 hits in two-thirds of an inning?
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| 4:40 |
: What would you offer to Kershaw owner right now as a start? Looking for a ballpark SP, bat, or milb option! Thanks.
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| 4:41 |
: I think the ideal is to send a basket of maybes. I don’t know your league depth so I don’t know what that might look like.
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| 4:41 |
: In my 20-teamer, I’d offer 3 guys like Greyson Jenista.
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| 4:41 |
: If you’re playing a 12-team, you might be offer Jo Adell or Bo Bichette because it’s so easy to find the next prospect.
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| 4:41 |
: How many stars would you draft in a standard 5X5 auction league?
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| 4:42 |
: As many as fit on a roster. Usually about 5 or 6
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| 4:42 |
: The deeper the format, the more I move away from stars and scrubs
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| 4:42 |
: Have to cut three of the following from a fairly deep roster dynasty league with no costs: Sheffield, Paddack, A Wood, Cody Allen, Clint Frazier, T O’Neill, Margot, Jose Martinez, McMahon, Gregorius. Probably need to keep Allen to be competitive this year. And I have so many young players on my roster that I need some of those I keep to have a decent amount of PAs this year. So leaning toward cutting Sheffield, C Frazier, and one of the STL OFers. Thoughts?
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| 4:43 |
: Keep Paddack and Gregorius. And if you need Allen, then I guess you need Allen.
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| 4:44 |
: Oh, I read that wrong, thought it was keep 3, not cut 3
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| 4:45 |
: I think I’d cut Frazier, Sheffield, and McMahon. Wood and Margot on the short list to cut too.
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| 4:45 |
: Do you believe Austin Hays arrives this season?
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| 4:45 |
: I’m willing to buy low
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| 4:45 |
: Not holding my breath
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| 4:45 |
: Are you surprised at how low Fulmer is going? Analysts love his stuff and I see him in the 40-50s range on ranks but much lower in experts drafts.
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| 4:45 |
: Not surprised. He needs a breakout just to supply 1 category
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| 4:45 |
: Tigers won’t give him run support
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| 4:45 |
: FG Points: Eaton, Schwarber, or Joc Pederson?
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| 4:46 |
: If memory serves, Eaton if you think he stays on the field and Schwarber if not
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| 4:47 |
: Brad, I’m in a unique position. Coming off a rebuild, I have a total of two 4ths, three 5ths, and a total 18 picks in the first 10 rounds. A few teams have superior keepers to me, but, I’m definitely in pole position. How can I best use the frequency of my picks to control the draft?
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| 4:47 |
: You’re not picking THAT often. I don’t think you can really control the draft.
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| 4:47 |
: You’ll have a little more room to play ADP games though
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| 4:47 |
: In redraft roto league who are your next 3 hitters after Trout/Betts?
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| 4:48 |
: Want to know a secret? I don’t know. I’m indifferent between about 11 guys.
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| 4:48 |
: I just pick a different one every time
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| 4:48 |
: So Kyle Tucker for Kershaw in 12 team, 300 prospects rostered?
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| 4:49 |
: I might angle for a little more than Kershaw. Or else draw out negotiations until he’s actually on a mound for multiple starts
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| 4:50 |
: Who would you choose 1st in a dynasty league: Mize, Bart, VV Mesa, or Kirilloff?
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| 4:50 |
: EZ Kirilloff
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| 4:50 |
: Re: buying low on Kershaw, here’s hoping all of our leaguemates in friends/family leagues just see all of this negative press and avoid completely (im not super high on kershaw, but seems like the casual fantasy community has totally revolted on him)
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| 4:50 |
: And then just use what’s left to buy $1 or $2?
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| 4:50 |
: This is wrt the number of stars I target in an auction. Yes.
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| 4:50 |
: But!
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| 4:51 |
: My job is to pick streamers. I’m paid to find good $1 players.
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| 4:51 |
: This is a strategy optimized to me. You probably want to be a LOT more balanced than me.
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| 4:51 |
: dynasty on base instead of average, is soto better than acuna if i don’t really need the steals?
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| 4:51 |
: Yes
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| 4:51 |
: Although I question the idea of “not needing the steals”
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| 4:52 |
: I also question how long Acuna will actually steal bases
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| 4:52 |
: Altuve still a top 10 Roto option?
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| 4:52 |
: Yes, and he might be available anywhere between pick 5 and 18
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| 4:52 |
: Which hearkens back to my indifference between most of the non-Trout/Betts elite bats
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| 4:52 |
: Is Alvarado good enough to be my Roto RP1?
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| 4:54 |
: Trade Whitley in dynasty for a proven elite bat?
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| 4:54 |
: Whoops, didn’t answer Alvarado
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| 4:54 |
: I’m on the clock in 3 drafts…
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| 4:54 |
: Little scatterbrained
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| 4:54 |
: Anyway! Alvarado is fine IF you have nasty SP and hitters
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| 4:54 |
: You’re committing to finding SVs later
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| 4:55 |
: Which can work
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| 4:55 |
: It’s not without risk, but I’ve flat out won saves without drafting a single closer maybe a dozen times over the years.
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| 4:55 |
: Any thing Bundy can do this spring to get you to buy in?
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| 4:55 |
: Oh not really
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| 4:56 |
: Throw 5 mph harder?
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| 4:56 |
: Favorite setup man in 5×5 Roto no holds league?
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| 4:56 |
: Ryan Pressly or Seranthony Dominguez
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| 4:56 |
: Josh Bell or Miggy in roto with ops and avg?
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| 4:56 |
: Miggy
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| 4:57 |
: So… I’m sick and have those aforementioned draft picks to resolve. So I’m going to start wrapping up now.
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| 4:57 |
: Hampson vs Peraza with ops and avg in dynasty?
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| 4:57 |
: Peraza is a way safer play
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| 4:58 |
: There’s no guarantee Hampson ever starts. The Rockies actually ARE a second division team, and they’re still intentionally blocking him.
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| 4:58 |
: And they tend to keep their prospects even though they don’t use ’em
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| 4:58 |
: They’re weird.
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| 4:59 |
: Who should I take 1st in my Roto minor league draft? Bichette, Kirilloff, Whitely, Adell?
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| 4:59 |
: Ooh that’s a nice list.
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| 4:59 |
: Not Adell
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| 4:59 |
: I prefer bats 9 times out of 10, but if your roster is light on SP, Whitley could be worth the gamble
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| 4:59 |
: Ryan Pressly, Jace Fry, Jose Castillo, Keone Kela, Carl Edwards Jr., Richard Rodriguez. One can’t be rostered… Which one?
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| 5:00 |
: Fry, Rodriguez, Edwards
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| 5:00 |
: Just make sure you keep Pressly and Kela actually
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| 5:00 |
: The others are just guys. Without researching, Rodriguez looks like the low man.
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| 5:01 |
: Carrasco/Severino seem like they have worrisome inconsistency with some pitches (four-seamer/slider). Help me set better odds about them finding a consistent feel all season.
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| 5:01 |
: No. You’re right that they have some inconsistency. Carrasco’s fastball is a below average pitch. Sevvy’s is more variable because his command wanders.
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| 5:02 |
: How can you do a chat and be on the clock in 3 drafts? Guess that’s why you are a pro and I am not. C.Martinez or A.Reyes in a dynasty?
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| 5:02 |
: They’re slow drafts. They’re just going to have to wait.
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| 5:02 |
: I’m sure there’s a Greek parable for this question.
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| 5:03 |
: I would need to do a lot more research to perceive which is the better long term play
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| 5:03 |
: My shrug answer is Reyes
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| 5:04 |
: What kind of prospect package should I expect for Machado in dynasty? Rebuilding and looking to trade him for a haul.
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| 5:04 |
: Depends on league depth. In a 12-team, something like Eloy, Whitley, Kirilloff, and Lewis.
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| 5:05 |
: In a 20-team, maybe one of those and three more from the Jesus Sanchez/Ke’Bryan Hayes tier
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| 5:05 |
: And…I strongly recommend you try adding something to Machado for an even better MLBer like Acuna or Soto.
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| 5:06 |
: It’s usually better to aggregate than disaggregate, even when trying to rebuild
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| 5:06 |
: Do you think Almora Jr. could ever break out and be roto or points relevant?
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| 5:06 |
: I won’t rule it out
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| 5:06 |
: It’s not especially likely or anything, but he’s young and has some talent.
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| 5:07 |
: And I think starting and stopping today’s chat on Almora is sufficiently weird.
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| 5:07 |
: Legit the first and last questions I received.
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