Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/13/2018

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few minutes. I have to marinate some chicken first.

Brad Johnson: Ok, I’m here. That took longer than expected. Let’s dive in.

Dummy: Keep 4 OBP categories league. Definitely keeping Hoskins and Corey Seager. Have to choose two of Buxton, Knebel and Rivero. Go with the two closers?

Brad Johnson: I’m inclined to do Buxton and Rivero. Closers are poor long term assets while Buxton still isn’t that far from finding top 15 overall production.

Brad Johnson: So you could win long term this way

Brad Johnson: And you still have a top 5 closer to kick off your bullpen.

tacopocket: 5X5 12 man league.   $300 at auction.  we play 5 OFs.   would you trade $11 alex wood for $44 Stanton or $38 JDM?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: Prefer Stanton so long as JDM is unemployed

Brad Johnson: Easy win for you though. Elite talent, even when pricey, trumps core players.

Erik: In an Ottoneu league, your auction dollars are also your FAAB right? How many should you leave unspent after the auction? Should you leave open roster spots as well?

Brad Johnson: I always draft 40 players. I usually have about $10 leftover, but I also usually quickly acquire some loans to bulk that up a bit.

Brad Johnson: In a fresh league, I might target $30 of leftover cash. I tend to have very little flexibility because I have Trouts and Kershaws rostered.

HeyBradIt’sMeBrad: Ketel Marte or Marcus Semien in a dynasty OBP league?

Brad Johnson: That’s a tough one. Semien is obviously a more actualized talent. Marte may never have a positive fantasy season. He could also be the next Jose Ramirez, as Jeff Sulllivan sorta dubbed him

Brad Johnson: I don’t see much growth coming from Semien.

Ian: would you rather have up to 5 years of Albies or 2 cheap years of Yelich in an OBP?

Brad Johnson: push

Brad Johnson: if your talent is present-loaded, Yelich

Brad Johnson: if back-loaded, Albies

Hooha: Votto or Freeman?  I was all aboard the Votto train last year but really feeling a strong season from Freddie this year.

Brad Johnson: Another push. Everybody seems to prefer Votto right now though

Brad Johnson: I don’t have a preference, they’re both studs

Erik: I’m noticing in some of my leagues that the auction calculator’s values for top players is way off from the top players’ actual salaries. I.e. in Ottoneu, Trout “should” go for like $90 but his average salary is about $68, and in my other dynasty league, nearly every top player costs about $15 more than the calculator suggests. Should I trust the people in the league, or should I zig while everyone else zags and either go stars and scrubs or avoid stars altogether depending on what the calculator says?

Brad Johnson: Be a bit wary of the calc. It’s a quirky tool. Chances are, you haven’t properly optimized it for your league. It’s not always straightforward. One thing to check – take all the positive value pitchers, add up their innings, divide by number of teams. Often, it’s projecting 800 innings or so per team

Brad Johnson: There are some other quirks that can affect things.

Brad Johnson: My personal value on Trout in ottoneu FGpts is ~$120 though

Brad Johnson: That said, it’s hard to build a roster if any single player costs $90 or more

99: Think Eddie Rosario keeps his gains from 2nd half last year?

Brad Johnson: I’ll bet on mostly regression

Brad Johnson: Some gains, but not all (or even most)

Andy: I have Miguel Sano as a 25th round keeper for the next 2 years.  Even though it looks like he may miss time due to suspension, I have to keep him because of the low round value, right?  Other options are J Upton in the 6th, Duffy in the 8th.  All my other keeper slots are filled.

Brad Johnson: Sano is the pick there

Slapshot: Would you consider Brian Dozier an upgrade on Robinson Cano in ottoneu for 2018 (and beyond)?  Dozier is 25% cheaper than it would have been to keep Cano for this year.

Brad Johnson: Yes, Dozier is better in FGpts

Chip Johnson: What kind of marinade?

Brad Johnson: Lemon pepper chicken

Ronald Acuna McDonaldson: 10 Team, $300 budget, can keep 7 of 26 (keeper salary increases $5/year). 8×7 H2H with XBH, OBP and Ks for hitters and Losses for pitchers. Must eliminate 3 (2018 values):
Freddie Freeman $28
George Springer $24
Carlos Correa $18
Gary Sanchez $13
Alex Bregman $12
Rhys Hoskins $8
Cody Bellinger $7
Luis Severino $7
Ronald Acuna $7

Brad Johnson: I’m cutting Springer, Acuna, and…

Brad Johnson: uh, I don’t know

Brad Johnson: consensus would say Hoskins, I’d say Bellinger, smartest play may be Severino.

Brad Johnson: Those are all fantastic values though. Only must-cut of the batch is Acuna. (Sorry prospect fans, actualized, performing studs get preference.)

Tom T.: Should I trade Gerrit Cole for Devers and Sixton Sanchez in a dynasty?

Brad Johnson: YES

Brad Johnson: Go!

Ronald Acuna McDonaldson: *Sorry must eliminate 2*

Brad Johnson: Oh, that’s so much easier.

Hooha: Any love for Betts 4th overall in a 5×5?

Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s fine there

Brad Johnson: there’s a clump of guys who can go 3rd to 14th or so

Brad Johnson: Trout and Altuve are your only must-select players

Erik: I can’t find many articles out there on the general approach to an auction draft. When do you nominate guys you love vs. guys you hope others will overpay for? Do you always start by nominating the best players or do you start off with some under-the-radar guys?

Brad Johnson: I used to write about this a lot. It’s all mind games so go with what makes you feel confident and in control.

Brad Johnson: I have a lot of deep keeper leagues in which I keep most of budget. So I’m sitting and waiting four hours for dollar days

Brad Johnson: I like to nominate from my list of $1 players in order of preference. A lot of them will go for $10+

Karen Walker: What are your thoughts on Rosario’s job security and lineup spot with the Mets?

Brad Johnson: Relatively secure, depending on the status of the rest of the team. 7th or 8th in the lineup. Bad production.

Brad Johnson: Could get demoted now that they got Frazier. Reyes and friends sounds like a nightmare from Mets past, but it may outperform Rosario in the short term

Anthony: Ottoneu FGPts (12 team) with an offline MiLB draft. All of the 2017 draft is in play…Hunter Greene seems like the obvious 1st pick in the draft, who are another few names we should target?

Brad Johnson: I’ll brb, I have a sheet for this.

Brad Johnson: Keston Hiura and Jo Adell are guys I like more than their draft position.

Brad Johnson: Pavin Smith could move pretty fast, albeit with a good rather than great profile. I like Jeren Kendall’s upside.

Brad Johnson: I try to avoid pitchers, but Greene is pretty tempting #1

Erik: In a league where you can keep a lot of guys, do you aim to trade aggressively to make sure you have exactly that number of guys you want to keep, or are you content to keep an extra few slots open?

Brad Johnson: Depends on the opportunity cost of those slots.

Brad Johnson: I do like all my keepers to be in the top X where X=the number of players kept

Tim T.: I’m in a dynasty league that counts OPS and TB. I have plenty of power and Kersh, Klub, CMart. I need a speed guy so trying to get Marte by trading Devers. Guy wants CMart for Marte which is fair but I love CMart. I’m working on trading Devers for Gerrit Cole so that I can trade Cole for Marte. Does this make sense for me? Sorry for the confusing question

Brad Johnson: I would hunt for cheaper SB…

Brad Johnson: I assume this is Starling you’re talking about

Brad Johnson: I’ve never liked his offensive profile, it’s not far removed from no-power and no-OBP

Ryan M: Are you marinating the chicken for 24 hours? Or…

Brad Johnson: 2 or 3

Brad Johnson: Yep, I’m still at 4:03 in the chat. Maybe I should start hopping forward

Harry: Austin Barnes in an 6×6 roto with OBP is a top ___ catcher this year.

Brad Johnson: 5?

Brad Johnson: Depends on how the Dodgers use him. I could totally see him only getting 350 plate appearances in a share with Grandal

Brad Johnson: That’s annoying as hell for us, but it’s a great optimization for the Dodgers.

Erik: Is there an auction calculator out there that can handle dynasty leagues? If not, do you have a general rule for how to adjust the calculator’s results for dynasty leagues? Add like 10 bucks to under-27 stars and subtract like 10 for guys over 32 or so?

Brad Johnson: We’ve talked about adapting one. But no, not that I’m aware of. One of us would need to have enough free time to herd all the cats involved in building it out.

Eloy, Matey!: 2018 Debut Guesses:

Acuña – May
Honeywell – June
Robles – June
Senzel – June
Torres – July
Jimenez – July
Kopech – August

How does that check out?

Brad Johnson: I think we see Torres and Acuna in April. Might not see Jimenez or Kopech at all. All probably pretty close though

Erik: I’m about to take part in my first Ottoneu draft, but I’ve played in deep dynasty leagues before. Should I expect anything notably different that might throw me off?

Brad Johnson: The budget is a lot higher than most dynasties which can skew the top end of the price scale.

Mike: Bradley Zimmer showed progress in K-rate from 2017… Given the lack of speed and potential he’s shown, what is his upside for 2018?  Longer term, dynasty?

Brad Johnson: I’m a big fan of Zimmer’s skill set. For now, let’s just say he should be viewed favorably. There’s huge volatility on the future projection. He completely disappeared last August before the injury. He has some adjusting to do.

Sand or Snow?: Which destination is better for JDM’s fantasy value – AZ or BOS?

Brad Johnson: Boston. Those fly balls at tiny Fenway and he doesn’t have to risk hurting himself in the field

Davoink Showerhandel: My plan for cheap fliers in deep leagues is to try to nab a couple guys who join the fly ball revolution.  So I’m looking at guys with currently bad gb/fb ratios (hey Orlando Arcia!) to either get as bench guys who can be quickly cut or guys I’ll try to grab off the waiver wire if they show early signs.  Reasonable plan?

Brad Johnson: I think jumping on them as they show the breakout may be a little better than just saying, hey Yandy Diaz, hit fly balls now. Most of those guys aren’t going to change.

Braník best : Would it be crazy to trade Acuna for the first pick in a dynasty (Ohtani)? Does Ohtani have the higher floor despite being a pitcher?

Brad Johnson: You can do it. I advise against doing it, but that sounds like a reasonable 1-for-1. Not sure Ohtani has a higher floor. They’re both likely to be good and capable of being elite.

sean: Was just offered $37 Trea Turner for $16 Aaron Nola in Ottoneu H2H points league.  I want the top 10 bat, but Nola at that value is hard to move.  any advice?

Brad Johnson: Turner is not worth $37 in FGpts. He might not be worth $20.

Brad Johnson: (he might, I haven’t looked too closely)

Brad Johnson: Definitely isn’t worth $37 though

Brad Johnson: Nola is worth his price plus a few bucks

Erik: Just traded a $31 Archer for a $15 Odubel Herrera, a $1 Gleyber Torres, and a $1 Francisco Mejia in an 18-team, 15-keeper dynasty league. Did I win?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I like that.

Brad Johnson: I need to pay attention to the names more… Erik seems to have the formula for getting picked.

Shark Tank: Lots of chatter, including the most recent SATB, that Samardzija will be a top 25 type SP this year.  What say you?

Brad Johnson: That’s based on his peripherals and his role as one of the last long-outing pitchers. It’s a solid bet.

Scott: Who are you more optimistic on, Sano or Franco?

Brad Johnson: Sano is so much better…

Brad Johnson: Like if Franco breaks out, he might look like Sano now

Brad Johnson: That said, I still think Franco will eventually put it together

Scott: Which players see the biggest increase in value if you use points scoring instead of 5×5?

Brad Johnson: I haven’t played a normal points league in awhile. For FGpts, it’s the monsters who get the gains. Guys with power and high OBP, pitchers who dominate and don’t allow HR.

DS: Do you like Jack Flaherty in a roto context?

Brad Johnson: Yes, but I’m looking at him as a flier rather than somebody I’ll pay to target

SparkyMcguffy: Keep one: J Upton OR Schoop.

Brad Johnson: I think most would say Schoop, but that feels like a push to me. At least for 2018. You can probably make the argument that Schoop looks like a much better bet over the next 3 years.

Fangraphs>Theathletic: Don’t jump to far, I think I asked my question at4:03, haha

Brad Johnson: i missed it 🙁

Minty: Trade Robles+Albies for Yelich+Andrew Miller in Saves+Holds keeper? Archie Bradley would replace Robles and Albies as my final keeper. 10 team

Brad Johnson: That’s a push in a 12 team league. In a 10 teamer, I’d probably take Yelich and run

John Bradson: Moncada or Devers for a dynasty?

Brad Johnson: i want to say Devers. That’s really just me choosing a guy I think I understand over a lotto machine.

Brad Johnson: Moncada could become a lot of things. Devers has a higher floor and maybe less ceiling. Certainly lacks the SB potential

Nick: 5×5 OBP instead of AVG….Pick two Chris Taylor in 15th, Carlos Santana in 14th, Gallo in 15th

Brad Johnson: Gallo!

Brad Johnson: Probably can flip for the other honestly. Do you want utility or mondo-consistency?

Hank: Is Devers too much of a reach as a keeper in a 12 man categories league? Only 4 keepers and it would be over Nola and maybe Pollock

Brad Johnson: Eh, I think those are all comparably valued players for that format even though they’re very different. I don’t really expect Devers to be a top 48 player long term. More like top 75

Brad Johnson: But the same can be said of the other 2

tacopocket: how long do you think sano gets suspended for?

Brad Johnson: 50 games?

Brad Johnson: Is there any rhyme or reason to the policy?

Jeff: I’m in an ottoneu league that carried an empty team last year that now has an active manager with $400. What sort of inflation should be built into this year’s auction?

Brad Johnson: Oh god…

Brad Johnson: I have no idea what that’s going to do

Brad Johnson: it should be hilarious though

Erik: Sorry for asking too many questions and feel free to ignore the rest! I figured I’d ask 6 and you’d answer 1 or 2. (No need to post this, obviously, but thanks for your helpful answers!)

Kershawshenk: What are your thoughts on Kenley Jansen as a first round pick in a 20 team – points pool with 1400 innings cap? Top 30 in points while only pitching 60ish innings

Brad Johnson: I wanted to name one of my teams Travis Kershawshank Claydemption, but the other guy wouldn’t give me Shaw.

Brad Johnson: Oh, your question…

Brad Johnson: I’d still be wary of putting that much pressure on a reliever. Second or third round sounds more sane.

DixieNormous: Fantasy question. Which side do you have in a 6×6 rotisserie dynasty, Schoop for Severino

Brad Johnson: Glad the type of question was specified. I’ve been drowning in reality questions today.

Brad Johnson: That trade looks like a push to me.

Brad Johnson: Without knowing more.

Brohn Jadson: Andrus rankings all over the place so far this offseason… what do you expect out of him in 2018?

Brad Johnson: Keeps most but not all of the HR, loses 20 points of average, otherwise, the same as always

Chaz: Thoughts on Matt Chapman in Dynasty – keep 20?  How does he stack up vs Castellanos?

Brad Johnson: Chapman>>>Castellanos. He’s a top 10 dynasty 3B. Castellanos is likely to lose the eligibility.

Dennis: Would you rather build around Mookie Betts or Nolan Arenado in a 12 team 5×5 roto mixed league (with OBP rather than BA) over the next couple of years?

Brad Johnson: Betts, no question

Brad Johnson: I always prefer to build around 5 category guys

Dougie: What do you think of Jon Gray this year? Odd reverse home/road splits

Brad Johnson: Yes. Odd. I’m taking a wait and see approach. I like the stuff.

Estevao: This is pretty funny
WAR as a batter since 2015

MadBum: 2.7

Alcides Escobar: 2.5

wRC+ by year:

MadBum: 104(15)   70(16)   86(17)

Escobar: 66(15)  69(16)  62(17)

I have nothing against Escobar, i’m sure he is a great guy, but c’mon

Estevao: Fantasy Alert: Yadier Molina led all catchers in baseball in 2017 with 9 Stolen Bases,

Brad Johnson: Estevao has switched roles from the guy who spams links to the guy who provides fun facts. Nice adaptation!

Matt: Dynasty league – Evaluate our first every 3-Team trade!
Team A: Get $24 Pollock, $5 Moose/ Give $16 Rendon
Team B: $6 Inciarte / $24 Pollock
Team C: $16 Rendon / $6 Inciarte, $5 Moose

Team B has mostly a full team, won last year, and needed to cut salary. Team A was me, acknowledging a potential sell off next year. Team C needed a solid bat, and couldn’t take on much salary. (12-team roto, OBP & TB instead of AVG & HR)

Brad Johnson: If I had to pick a loser, it’s team A. I’d have wanted like 5% more for Rendon. Like a $20 Pollock instead. Basically, it’s a fine swap.

Potato: Any reason to expect regression from Encarnacion? Or does he still get 30 HR/100 RBI again

Brad Johnson: I mean, guy is old.

Jazzflute: Would you trade Devers and Dee Gordon for C. Seager in an OBP dynasty?

Brad Johnson: That is very tempting. But only if you’re rebuilding. Or have a ton of SB from other sources.

Detroit Mike: Am I the only one concerned about Goldy?  Stolen bases have gone down from 32 to 18, talk of a humidor, just turned 30…

Brad Johnson: Probably. Yes, we should probably stop expecting the steals. They were always a bonus. He’s an insane hitter.

Morbo: I may have named my team Bartolo Colon’s Colon a couple years ago when he didn’t walk a batter for like 1/2 a season

cJ: Are you worried about Eric Thames in a weekly leauge? Is he getting everyday ABs with all these guys around in Mil?

Brad Johnson: Yes! Very worried. Was trying to acquire him in a 20 team weekly and we couldn’t match up because of the risk.

Zapato: I traded $13 Dozier, $7 Devers and $7 Albies for $5 Seager.   Couldnt’ find a way to keep the other 3 under our cap.   Too much?

Brad Johnson: That’s a LOT. But if you need to cut salary, then your hands are tied

Eric: How is Chapman a top 10 3B when he’s projected to hit .227?

Brad Johnson: He’s projected to hit 30 HR too. And I think think he’ll do a little better than a sub-.230 average. Not much. Maybe .240-.245.

Brad Johnson: Also, pretty sure it was a dynasty question, at least that’s how I interpreted it

Brad Johnson: so to clarify, he’s a top 10 3B in dynasty. For example, Adrian Beltre is a top 10 3B in 2018 but nowhere near that in dynasty.

cJ: Keep 1 – Votto RD 3 or Ozuna RD 14?

Brad Johnson: I’m going Votto.

Jad Brohnson: Thoughts on Hand this year? Top 10 closer, or is that too much to ask out of a lefty?

Brad Johnson: Have you noticed his workload?

Brad Johnson: It’s not the left-handedness that worries me, it’s the abuse.

Mark : Name a player you feel really good to great about out playing their ADP by a LOT?!

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I’ve been avoiding ADPs and mocks. Trying to anchor my values at late as possible this year. I seem to recall Beltre floating forEVER in the few mocks I did do. He’s still a stud when healthy.

Elephantine: Hi, so about to draft my first dynasty 12 team league. Separate drafts for minor and major leagues. I have 7th pick in the majors, who do you fancy for my first two picks – I was thinking premium SS and Gary Sanchez, given how much better they are than the competition?

Brad Johnson: This is a fresh draft?

Brad Johnson: I like the thinking for Sanchez. Not as concerned about shortstop, but that position is definitely crowded into the first couple rounds. Can probably get Bogaerts at a relative discount though (3rd or 4th even?).

The Man With No Name: Best dynasty SS in no-steals OBP league?

Brad Johnson: It’s definitely Correa. Or Seager. Flip a coin?

cJ: Thames at $1 (guaranteed contract extension available after 2018). Do I just keep him and see or move him for a rental who’s under my auction calculation number? I could get Aroldis Chapman for $15 right now when top closers typically go for $25.

Brad Johnson: Can definitely keep, but Chapman sounds interesting. Go ahead and hunt for an alternative.

The Man With No Name: What % value bump do you give Bregman if he has SS eligibility in your league, relative to 3B-only?

Brad Johnson: 1%

Brad Johnson: I really like guys with flexibility, but they’re pretty common now.

Brad Johnson: I kind of expect to have a lot of Marwin Gonzalez shares.

Brad Johnson: so I’m not worried about flex in the early rounds

Matt: Where would you rank JP Crawford as a fantsay SS next year? Take dynasty into account, for upside, but focused on next year specifically.

Brad Johnson: Outside the top 20 for next year. He was getting the bat hit out of his hands last fall. I do think he’ll adjust to perennial top 15 ability at the very least. Orlando Arcia is instructive as to how long adjustments can take.

The Man With No Name: If Felipe Rivero is worth $X in non-saves/holds league, what is Andrew Miller worth?  2X?  1.5X?

Brad Johnson: 1.15X? Not that much more. Miller has multiple forearm scares in recent years. That’s eventually going to be a blown UCL.

Brad Johnson: Ok, we’re down to only comments from Estevao. I think it’s time to call it a day. It’s time for me to make a pick and Davies was sniped by Bret Sayre!