Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12/19/2017
by Brad Johnson
December 19, 2017
Here’s today’s chat transcript. Some Phillies spare outfielder talk mixed in with the usual range of dynasty questions.
| 2:45 |
: Hey folks, let’s get started once I spam twitter a little
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| 2:46 |
: for the next 4 years, Brian Dozier or Yoan Moncada? Competitive window is ajar this year, but the following three years will have a more open window
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| 2:47 |
: Ooh, I’m a sucker for present value, but Dozier isn’t likely to be productive 3 or 4 years from now
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| 2:48 |
: Moncada could look something like Dozier as soon as 2018. I’d bet on Moncada to be better by 2020.
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| 2:48 |
: Given that you don’t seem too keen about 2018, I’d lean Moncada
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| 2:48 |
: Should I be worried about max schrock?
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| 2:48 |
: Worry about yourself
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| 2:48 |
: You’re basically Jon Jay with 2B eligibility
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| 2:49 |
: The scouting reports on Schrock aren’t very enthusiastic so I wouldn’t go out of my way to acquire him
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| 2:50 |
: Might just be one of those guys who does well in the minors but is overmatched in the majors. No carrying tools if he’s not making elite contact.
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| 2:50 |
: Would you trade 5 years of Gary Sanchez for 6 years of Chance Sisco and Brent Honeywell? Or Gary for 4 years of Nola?
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| 2:50 |
: Or neither?
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| 2:50 |
: Super neither
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| 2:50 |
: Those offers are terrible
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| 2:50 |
: Unless it’s like a 0.25 catcher league
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| 2:51 |
: In my Ottoneu leauge, there’s a few teams that have around $200 they need to shed going into the draft. What’s the best way to bring up a trade in this situation? I don’t want to give up good, young talent for guys that I can just get in the draft when they are cut, but any bid that I think compensates the other teams fairly are viewed as lowball offers and immediately rejected.
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| 2:51 |
: You probably need to wait until there’s a little pressure on them to make a swap. Most likely, they’ll try to cut down to budget with one big move – i.e. getting $7 Andrus for $69 Kershaw
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| 2:51 |
: (that’s what I did)
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| 2:52 |
: Whathca think about trading a $34 Rizzo and $6 Pham for $16 Lindor?
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| 2:52 |
: Overpay, but not atrocious.
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| 2:52 |
: Hey Brad, your thoughts on David Dahl in 2018? Oh and Ottoneu 12 team 5×5 – $55 Betts for $29 Braun and $12 Dahl. Take the two for one or pass since Dahl is a question mark
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| 2:53 |
: I get asked about Dahl every week. I don’t have any insights besides that he should be nearly free in most formats (including ottoneu). He’s like a $3 player there until he proves otherwise.
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| 2:53 |
: Betts for days in this situation.
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| 2:53 |
: Looking to join an Ottoneu league for the first time. Can you give me any tips on what the process is? Should I join a league now or wait until February?
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| 2:54 |
: I’d recommend a fresh league if you can find one. Just be ready for a very long draft. Could always do a fresh league and an existing one though.
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| 2:54 |
: Do you know of any English sites that does fantasy for NPB?
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| 2:54 |
: Nope
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| 2:54 |
: Cool idea though
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| 2:54 |
: I noticed that the park factors on the Guts! page haven’t been updated since the 2015 season. Are there any plans to bring them up to date?
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| 2:55 |
: That’s funny, I complained about that internally earlier today
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| 2:55 |
: Probably
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| 2:55 |
: I have a bit of an ottoneu keeper issue with the Carlos Santana ($15) signing in Philadelphia, as I have both Altherr ($7) and Nick Williams ($4) on my roster. How do you see that roster logjam playing out, and should I look to trade or cut any of those guys at those prices as a result?
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| 2:55 |
: Can probably just wait for it to solve itself via injury or trade
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| 2:56 |
: Seems likely that one of Altherr or Williams will be traded for a pitcher
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| 2:56 |
: And if not, somebody will land on the DL
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| 2:56 |
: I may return to the backlog later, let’s fast forward to the present
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| 2:56 |
: “The scouting reports on Schrock aren’t very enthusiastic“ Carson is going to get you fired for that comment.
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| 2:57 |
: Carson specifically writes about players whose scouting reports aren’t very enthusiastic
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| 2:57 |
: Whats better: 25$ Yu, 34$ Kluber (otto prices)
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| 2:57 |
: Gimme Kluber
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| 2:58 |
: Jake Lamb more of the same – .250 -30HRs? Is that about the same as Sano, or Sano get to 35?
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| 2:58 |
: Projections might look similar but Sano could go wild. I suppose Lamb could also find another gear. Sano still has that superstar upside though
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| 2:59 |
: Hi Brad, Following up from a question last week regarding FAABs in my 13 team salary cap league. How many pick ups is fair when we have with a 15 man bench and should dropping a player be needed? Also should they be a set cost like $5 or cost what you bid on them for? Thanks a bunch.
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| 2:59 |
: If you have a FAAB, you don’t need a cap or a minimum bid
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| 2:59 |
: 2016 and 2017 I’m getting the same prospect hype. Are you believing in me?
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| 3:00 |
: I go back and forth on this. I think it’s a lot easier to see the downside, but the potential remains attractive. The issue may be that you could get the same from Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso for a tiny fraction of the price.
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| 3:00 |
: boring question i know but: given equal cost (26th round draft pick, 5 rnd inflation each year), who are your top 3 keepers? bellinger, hoskins, f freeman, buxton, smoak, gallo. thanks brad
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| 3:00 |
: Freeman for sure
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| 3:00 |
: Probably Buxton and Hoskins for the other two. Bellinger is obviously hard to pass though.
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| 3:01 |
: I guess decide who is more likely to regress – Bellinger or Hoskins. I happen to think Bellinger is the likelier to fall (seemed like he was solved in the postseason).
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| 3:01 |
: Do the Astros let me start again?
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| 3:01 |
: Swingman
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| 3:02 |
: You’ll get 10 or so starts next season. Musgrove was so good in relief though
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| 3:02 |
: Villar went well into the 200s in the early industry mocks. As far as I can tell he’s got a good shot to hold onto the starting job. Buying opportunity?
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| 3:02 |
: Definitely a great buy at that price. I think he’ll climb the boards to the 150 range
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| 3:02 |
: I’m currently only doing Yahoo keep-forever dynasty leagues (1 ESPN re-draft for monies). Started one last season with 14 teams and farm system via spreadsheet that I run. Looking to shed most of the lighter leagues; what kind of league(s) should I look at getting into, and how difficult would it be to get into them? Also, thoughts on Odor over the next like 5 years?
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| 3:03 |
: Finding a good dynasty league is a real challenge. I find ottoneu to be the most accessible dynasty-like experience.
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| 3:03 |
: Not just because we’re affiliated. It’s so challenging to find a dynasty league that isn’t rigged and therefore doomed to fold when the schmucks stop paying to stay
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| 3:05 |
: As for Odor, I’ve been warning people off him for years. His profile is so extreme. He’s basically a better Danny Espinosa. The price is probably right this year, assuming Willie Calhoun doesn’t somehow push him aside. I don’t think that’s a big risk.
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| 3:05 |
: Where you placing Kinsler next year? That lineup going to allow him to be a top 12 2B, or is he going to be more in the 10-20 range?
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| 3:06 |
: He’s leaving a very favorable hitting environment. I would not count on improved stats.
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| 3:06 |
: Detroit is tough on home runs and very friendly for everything else. And Kinsler is mostly an everything else hitter these days
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| 3:06 |
: Angels Stadium is tough on everything
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| 3:07 |
: I’m not convinced he’ll hang onto a top-of-the-order role
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| 3:07 |
: Hey, Brad, thanks for chatting.
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| 3:07 |
: You’re welcome
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| 3:07 |
: Hey Brad, thanks for chatting. Do you like Luis Castillo or Luke Weaver more next year?
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| 3:08 |
: Leaning Castillo, but they’re the same asset class. I do like that Weaver has Busch for a home park. GABP is a nightmare.
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| 3:08 |
: Will Conforto ever play again?
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| 3:08 |
: Of course
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| 3:08 |
: He might be disappointing this year though. Don’t forget this when trying to acquire him
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| 3:08 |
: PSA/Question: I am looking for a good Ottoneu league, but the posts on the page seem to be outdated/abandoned, how can I find a good league to join?!
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| 3:09 |
: I recommend getting set up with the ottoneu slack community. Trey Baughn and Justin Vibber know the way in.
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| 3:09 |
: Gimmie your thoughts on Shark. Does his consistency give him top 30 SP value? SP is so top heavy, I wonder – Is there really a difference between the 20th best SP and the 40th?
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| 3:10 |
: Shark is absolutely a top 30 SP. He’s probably a top 20 SP. Very few pitchers share his combination of stuff, durability, and deep starts. He can pull an Ervin Santana at the very least
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| 3:10 |
: Thoughts on McCullers this year? Ace upside if healthy?
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| 3:10 |
: Not exactly. He’ll pitch like an ace for the 5.1 innings he’s in the game. He’ll never be more than a long reliever who happens to pitch the first inning
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| 3:11 |
: An ace gives you 7 or more innings in half or more of his starts
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| 3:11 |
: You need that volume to reliably accumulate wins or QS
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| 3:11 |
: McCullers can’t give you those with any reliability
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| 3:11 |
: I just ran a version of SGP I created (that looks at value above average, instead of overall), and LoCain comes in at like $250 overall based on Depth Charts. What gives, yo?
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| 3:12 |
: Sounds like you mathfailed
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| 3:12 |
: Who are your Top 3 favorite buy-low candidates in 2018?
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| 3:12 |
: To be honest, we’re still in pre-ADP so it’s hard to really buy low with any accuracy
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| 3:12 |
: like Odor should be a buy low guy, but I won’t be surprised to see him going above his projection
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| 3:13 |
: Villar does seem like a kick-you-in-the-face value
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| 3:13 |
: I think Jerad Eickhoff could win 15 games if healthy with perfectly fine ratios
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| 3:13 |
: Bet he’ll cost a buck at most
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| 3:13 |
: I see a 20/20 year out of him. I don’t see a lot of hype around his potential. He looks good in NLDS
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| 3:14 |
: I think we’re holding our breath while waiting to see what the Nats do. I still think they’ll sign JDM, pushing Taylor into a 4th OFer role
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| 3:14 |
: He’s also the obvious odd man out for Victor Robles
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| 3:14 |
: Brian Dozier is entering his age 31 season. Is it just normal attrition that has you worry about his value 3-4 years from now, or is there something in his profile you don’t like?
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| 3:15 |
: It’s a mix of attrition and profile. I think he’s going to turn into a faster Todd Frazier very soon.
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| 3:15 |
: What are my chances of hitting 35+ HR and having a .850+ OPS next year?
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| 3:15 |
: Low. 15%?
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| 3:15 |
: Alex reyes or walker buehler
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| 3:15 |
: I’ll take Reyes, especially if we’re talking about 2018. Doubt we see more than 20 IP from Buehler.
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| 3:16 |
: Of course, I’d love to see Reyes pitch from a mound and hit upper-90s before committing
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| 3:16 |
: Zack Godley or Charlie Morton in 2018?
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| 3:16 |
: Gimme Godley. Love Morton too though.
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| 3:16 |
: Morton is a good veteran like Rich Hill. I think Godley has an ace inside him
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| 3:17 |
: Had one of the highest ground ball rates for a starter with 13.3% SwStr, 9.59 K/9, and 3.08 Bb/9
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| 3:18 |
: As far as I can tell, the DBacks have quietly installed their humidor and it’ll be in use next year. Which should mitigate the league’s fastest infield. I’m betting on a 3.10 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go with similar K rates.
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| 3:18 |
: Would Quintana be worth $22 in a 13 teamer? I have very limited funds due to buyouts.
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| 3:19 |
: In a vacuum, yes. Sometimes you’re forced to cut a keepable player. Better a pitcher than a similarly valued hitter.
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| 3:19 |
: Who was the 25th player on the 1987 World Series winning Twins team. Cannot find this answer anywhere. Also how do you like the Twins next year.
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| 3:19 |
: I was born in 1987. I do not know. I do like the Twins, assuming they make a few additions to the pitching staff.
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| 3:20 |
: Buxton over Bellinger? Is that based off the strength of his finish? Because he finished 2016 great too, and then the first 4 months of 2017 happened.
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| 3:20 |
: Buxton’s a tough cookie to crack.
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| 3:20 |
: Or is he a tough cracker to cook?
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| 3:20 |
: I don’t know
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| 3:20 |
: I like the 20/40 potential he flashed. That’s sneaky valuable even if the rest of the profile scuffles
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| 3:21 |
: He’s one of the best base runners in the league and his elite defense ensures he’ll remain in the lineup through his slumps
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| 3:21 |
: He’s basically Keon Broxton with huge upside and safe playing time
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| 3:21 |
: And more SB
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| 3:21 |
: Re LoCain and my failed SGP – I meant #250…does your response change now that he’s at the bottom instead of the top?
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| 3:22 |
: Haha! That’s very different
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| 3:22 |
: That still smells wrong to me based on the 74/15/69/16/.288 projection
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| 3:22 |
: That’s a top 100 player
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| 3:23 |
: Maybe your method is hammering him for 595 PA. How are you treating replacement PA?
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| 3:23 |
: Hey Brad, thanks for chatting. Love your insight on both short and long term fantasy baseball. How are you feeling about Gregory Polanco? Can he still be a 25/20 guy with health?
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| 3:23 |
: I think that’s overshooting things just a tad, but I do expect a big rebound once he’s healthy. That may not be early 2018.
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| 3:24 |
: How worthwhile is it to flip high profile prospects for now assets? I managed to trade for Moncada in 2016, then flipped him and co. (my draft pick he took ended up being Hoskins) for Goldy and Fulmer. Should I consider doing the same with Acuna, Brendan Rodgers, and Rosario? Leaning towards doing this, but keeping Acuna.
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| 3:24 |
: I’d also lean towards keeping Acuna. He went for Goldy+Kluber in my 20 team dynasty league. Ask for similar
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| 3:24 |
: If someone meets that price, cool.
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| 3:25 |
: If not, convert the not hyper-elite names to MLB talent first
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| 3:25 |
: ultimately, it’s a matter of what you need. Fill needs, then find proven long term assets, then build up unproven longer term assets
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| 3:25 |
: I have Nola, Berrios, Jon Gray and Luis Castillo. How do you rank these guys?
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| 3:26 |
: Nola then the other three are same asset class
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| 3:26 |
: Gray is technically best but Coors hurts enough to bump him down a tier or two
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| 3:26 |
: Where do you rank Chase Anderson and Zack Godley among SPs?
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| 3:27 |
: I don’t have rankings and I’m planning something completely different this year. Purely using ADP (once it’s reliable) plus projected team performance. Picking the best players early then filling category needs.
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| 3:28 |
: I’ll write about it in more detail at some point. I don’t recommend it unless you have everybody’s projections internalized.
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| 3:28 |
: Godley has an ace inside him? That’s an interesting way to cheat at poker.
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| 3:28 |
: Ace of Snakes
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| 3:28 |
: what are we doing with Verdugo? is Toles going to get in the way?
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| 3:29 |
: The Dodgers have embarrassing depth. Still. Something will shake loose. Personally, Verdugo + Kemp to the Phillies smells reasonable to me. Then Kemp+all the cash to the Rays for an extra tidbit. Or maybe Verdugo, Kemp, cash, and Kingery for Archer?
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| 3:30 |
: I’m getting ahead of myself.
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| 3:30 |
: The Dodgers aren’t actually going to be under the lux cap unless they get someone to eat Kemp though.
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| 3:30 |
: Ok. Thanks for the answer on McCullers. Is there a better target for “ace upside that hasn’t quite clicked yet” in that similar price/ranking range?
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| 3:30 |
: Godley
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| 3:30 |
: Sano at $29 or Gallo at $6 in a points league?
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| 3:30 |
: Gallo is too similar to justify the discrepancy
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| 3:30 |
: Kopech or Walker Buehler in 2018 and beyond?
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| 3:31 |
: Kopech? These are all dart throws. Think about all the recent top pitching prospects.
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| 3:32 |
: That’s Thor, Severino, Fulmer, Berrios, Glasnow, Giolito, Reyes, and Urias
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| 3:32 |
: How many of them are actually established pitchers?
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| 3:32 |
: Which of them hasn’t either spent a season injured or completely disappointed in performance?
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| 3:33 |
: The first question is around 3.5 of 7. The second is 0 of 7.
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| 3:33 |
: Does JP Crawford fall in the “better real prospect than fantasy prospect” category?
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| 3:33 |
: Yessir
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| 3:33 |
: He could go Lindor though. The MiLB profiles were very similar. JPC has better plate discipline.
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| 3:34 |
: That said, Lindor going Lindor was a low percentage outcome. He was supposed to be more like Simmons.
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| 3:34 |
: Hey Brad, any love for Kevin Gausman after his 2nd half last year? Another tease from him or has he legit turned a corner?
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| 3:34 |
: I dunno man
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| 3:34 |
: That man is a damned tub of rolaids
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| 3:34 |
: I’m glad I never quite get shares of him
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| 3:35 |
: I’d plan to sit out the draft unless he’s super cheap. Then just pick him up midseason when he has a 6.50 ERA. That’s what I keep doing. It works.
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| 3:35 |
: do you like or stay away from Joey Gallo. I love him, but his avg is a huge anchor
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| 3:35 |
: Both. I try to avoid building around players that actively torpedo categories. If we’re talking a late pick, that’s one thing. If we looking top 100 or so, I prefer well-rounded production
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| 3:35 |
: Do you think Madison Bumgarner bounces back to approach the Big 4, or is he more risk than reward?
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| 3:36 |
: I think he’ll bounce back. But a fully resurgent Bumgarner probably isn’t actually a top 4 pitcher. He went that high in past drafts because he was super healthy, not because his projected ratios justified it.
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| 3:36 |
: Does his rebuilding Tigers team hurt value this year?
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| 3:37 |
: He doesn’t need any help hurting his value. He’s a very unimpressive player.
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| 3:37 |
: Brad – you have great advice for daily add/transaction leagues. Do you have any tenets you live by in weekly add/weekly lineup leagues?
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| 3:38 |
: Well, ideally, you want to prioritize hitters with an every day role. Pay attention to platoon guys with bad projected matchups. Look for two-start pitchers. Often a Trevor Williams two-start off the waiver wire is more valuable than a lone McCullers outing (or similar).
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| 3:39 |
: If your league is particularly deep, don’t be afraid of the best platoon bats. You’ll get more out of Matt Joyce than Denard Span
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| 3:39 |
: I feel like this is the year to trade away Kershaw go in a keep forever (as draft picks) league. Before the bad back and 140 innings bumps him permanently down to #2 status. Thoughts?
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| 3:40 |
: As they say, it’s better to sell a year too early than a year too late. There’s a reason why I sold him instead of Trout or Goldy in FG Staff Two. Then again, I immediately acquired him when I joined Dave Cameron’s Screw Cancer league.
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| 3:40 |
: Elite pitchers are always super high risk/reward
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| 3:41 |
: How many home runs could I smang if the Rockies finally give me an everyday job?
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| 3:41 |
: Why? Where?
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| 3:41 |
: 5?
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| 3:41 |
: 2?
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| 3:42 |
: He doesn’t hit for any power. Are you sure you mean to ask about Daniel Castro?
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| 3:42 |
: Noticed that ridiculous 22-player trade the other day in the Devil’s Rejects league. Maybe you can help me understand it a little bit. Even if you’re happy with the return, what is the logic behind making such a massive swap? Also, why would that one player deal away Buehler, Tatis and others in what was clearly a very lopsided deal?
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| 3:42 |
: Hahahaha
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| 3:42 |
: I cannot help you to understand this
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| 3:42 |
: The guy who clearly won the deal still doesn’t have a complete roster, otherwise I would have thrown the biggest tantrum
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| 3:43 |
: Worst trade I’ve ever seen. Lemme find a link to it for the rest of you
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| 3:43 |
: Here we go –
There was a 22 player trade in The Devil’s Rejects league today #TDR.
 |
| 3:44 |
: One owner gave up the best MLB players AND the best MiLB players in the same swap. We have a 28 keeper cap so the extra volume just pushes similar players into the draft.
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| 3:45 |
: I try not to criticize my leaguemates on FanGraphs because I’ve ruined a couple relationships that way in the past. However, I think is a reap what you sow kind of scenario.
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| 3:45 |
: Dylan Bundy a sneaky bet for top 30 SP?
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| 3:45 |
: Not sneaky so much as a decent long shot gamble
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| 3:46 |
: Does feel like there is more upside in the tank. I doubt he gets there as an Oriole
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| 3:46 |
: Their pitchers are cursed
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| 3:46 |
: Is it just that I’m now in the 8th year of my Dynasty league (and so valuations have reached extremes) or is every bit of talent pretty top heavy relative to a few years ago?
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| 3:47 |
: I’m not sure what you’re asking but it has the bones of an interesting question. Please rephrase.
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| 3:47 |
: What kind of return could the Royals expect for Scott Alexander.
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| 3:47 |
: A couple solid prospects. Makes more sense to trade Herrera and put Alexander into a more prominent setup/closer role. Then trade him at the deadline.
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| 3:47 |
: Thoughts on Luiz Gohara for 2018? Beyond?
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| 3:48 |
: Everyone seems to love him. I get why. I don’t have any unique insights. Projections look useful. Downside is bigger than people seem to expect
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| 3:48 |
: Brad. Thanks again for your chat. Mitch Haniger had a lot of hype last year, do you consider a bounceback candidate?
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| 3:48 |
: Not even a bounce back really. He played well when healthy
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| 3:48 |
: Sell low on Miggy in a league that keeps 240? In a position to contend this year.
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| 3:49 |
: I’d sell, just not too low. There’s a point where it’s better to hope for a dead cat bounce.
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| 3:50 |
: Years ago, I had a failing Prince Fielder. He BABIPd his way into becoming Kendrys, David Robertson, and (Freddy Galvis)
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| 3:50 |
: So if you’re getting terrible offers, just hang onto him and hope something happens
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| 3:51 |
: In 12 roto standard 5×5, weekly league, how do you generally compose your pitching staff.
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| 3:51 |
: Assuming I have a big bench, I aim for 4 closers and 8 SP. Then I play SP based on matchups and 2-start week and backfill however many CL I need
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| 3:51 |
: I can keep
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| 3:51 |
: keep
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| 3:51 |
: Keep forever H2H dynasty league. Can keep
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| 3:51 |
: StandardH2H dynasty league, can keep 7 forever.. which 2 get cut? Sano, Buxton, Dee Gordon, Willie Calhoun, Nola, Paxton, Kenley Jansen, Wilson Contreras, Nomar Mazara
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| 3:52 |
: Got there 🙂
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| 3:52 |
: That is a very difficult list
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| 3:52 |
: Jansen and Gordon may have the least long term value. But they’re very valuable in the short term.
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| 3:53 |
: Sadly, I think Mazara is on the chopping block. I probably let Calhoun go too. The exception is if your team won’t contend in 2018
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| 3:54 |
: Why do you think so few innings from Buehler?
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| 3:54 |
: It’s just how prospects are used, especially by the over-deep Dodgers
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| 3:54 |
: Paxton, Devers, and J.Bradley for Severino and Keuchel. Which side do you like?
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| 3:54 |
: No preference. Unless it’s a deep dynasty in which case Devers is the best asset in the swap
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| 3:54 |
: Does Abreu and Chad Green for J Turner and L Weaver sound good?
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| 3:55 |
: Smells fine to me
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| 3:55 |
: Prefer the Turner side, modestly
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| 3:55 |
: if salaries and contracts are similar, do you think Lo Cain for Quintana is a decent starter, or way off?
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| 3:55 |
: Can try it. Prefer Quintana, all else equal.
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| 3:55 |
: Thanks for chatting Brad. Pick one as a MI keeper for the next 3 years – Brendan Rodgers, Adames, G. Torres
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| 3:55 |
: Rodgers then Torres
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| 3:56 |
: Both are similarly strong prospects
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| 3:56 |
: Adames isn’t the same class
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| 3:56 |
: If Gausman were to be traded to STL I would draft him much higher.
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| 3:56 |
: True
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| 3:56 |
: Hey man, so…I’m jones’ing for either Acuña or Torres in my 10-team, 5×5 (OBP, otherwise standard). It’s keep 7 forever, so I think I’ve got enough on my bench to make a move…would sending a guy like Miggy be enough? Not enough? Trade picks?
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| 3:56 |
: Neither of them are presently top 70 keepers in that format.
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| 3:56 |
: Nor is Miggy
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| 3:57 |
: I mean, you can try sending him just to see what happens
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| 3:57 |
: But you should be able to do better
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| 3:57 |
: Do you avoid answering questions on certain players because you want them to stay sleepers?
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| 3:57 |
: Nah, I’ve answered just about everything that’s been asked since the start of the this chat. All the extra questions are in the pre-chat queue
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| 3:58 |
: I doubt enough people are reading this chat to ruin any sleepers I’d want
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| 3:58 |
: And I’m still in a pre-sleeper portion of the offseason. Need robust ADP before I know who is actually a sleeper
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| 3:59 |
: I’ve done this game for too long. You think a guy is going to be cheap and then he’s going in the 4th round.
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| 3:59 |
: Why is Kyle Schwarber relevant to anything?
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| 3:59 |
: 50 HR potential
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| 4:00 |
: Regarding the extremes. I feel like every time I do my research, there are like 5 guys that are just in a different world. But then the #5-25 guys are all pretty standard, and after that, its just a crap shoot. But my view may be distorted because I’m in a dynasty league and am thus ignoring many players I wouldn’t because they’re owned at good contracts and essentially untradable.
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| 4:00 |
: That’s pretty standard. However, there are more hyper-elite players in the league than in past seasons. Hasn’t been like this since the peak of the steroid era.
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| 4:00 |
: I need a 1B in my 14 team points league. I can sign one of: Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds or Albert Pujols or get Matt Olson in our MiLB draft instead of a prospect. Thoughts?
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| 4:01 |
: I’d avoid Pujols, I think he’s on the way out. Davis seems due for a rebound. Olson is my preferred target of the 4
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| 4:01 |
: follow up on how you compose your rotation, it is 3 bench spots.
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| 4:01 |
: That’s rough…
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| 4:01 |
: Stream 2-starters then and focus the bench on hitters
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| 4:01 |
: Why is Cesar Hernandez so overlooked?
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| 4:02 |
: You’re baiting me, aren’t you
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| 4:02 |
: I love Cesar Hernandez. He’s an OBP beast. Lack of power and middling SB totals hurt his 5×5 value. Great in FGpts though.
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| 4:02 |
: Just out of curiosity, how many people read your chats?
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| 4:03 |
: In-season, I usually have 300-400 readers while I’m chatting (no idea how many read the transcript). Right now, we have 94.
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| 4:03 |
: I took over an Otto FGPTS league which has both a $31 Cano and a $10 Moncada. For whatever reason I’ve never bought the Moncada hype. Am I crazy to move Moncada for a ton of value that I can plug in elsewhere?
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| 4:03 |
: Go for it. Completely reasonable to hope a healthy Cano returns good value. Especially if you’re locking in a stud with Moncada. Not convinced he’s good for that format.
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| 4:03 |
: Matt chapman or Evan Longoria? OPS league.
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| 4:04 |
: Uh, let’s see where Longoria ends up. Kinda leaning push
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| 4:04 |
: So, maybe I don’t bother with trying to acquire Acuña, Torres, and dump Miggy to keep a fringe ace? What about a guy like Ray, Paxton, or McCullers?
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| 4:04 |
: Ray should be kept
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| 4:04 |
: 100%
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| 4:04 |
: He’s a top 10 pitcher
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| 4:05 |
: Paxton has that ability too, but his injury history makes him an iffy keep
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| 4:05 |
: Better to draft him
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| 4:05 |
: If you haven’t noticed, I’m not a huge fan of McCullers as a fantasy asset
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| 4:06 |
: his plus ratios hide bad W/QS totals
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| 4:06 |
: What do you think the chances of seeing me in the majors are next season?
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| 4:06 |
: 5%
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| 4:06 |
: In a standard 5 x 5 roto, 12 team league, I used to target 2200 R+RBI, 300 HR, 200 SB, .265…but the last couple years I feel like it’s more like 2400 R+RBI, 380 HR, 150 SB, .270. A lot more goes into my draft prep – SPG, ADP eval, but ultimately these are numbers I’m trying to surpass…do you have any goals going into the year? Just from a pure numbers point of view?
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| 4:07 |
: I aim for 350 HR. The rest tends to work itself out.
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| 4:07 |
: Had a chat with Jeff Z about this because he focuses on AVG and finds the rest fall into place
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| 4:08 |
: I think it’s a matter of your personal preferences as to which categories you try to maximize in the draft. Since I’m a sucker for 5 cat guys, I find the if I fall short on HR, I also fall short everywhere else.
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| 4:08 |
: Travis just posted a piece about the Phillies signing Carlos Santana, buying into the idea that it creates a crowd in the outfield. Has nobody looked at Nick Williams’ plate discipline stats from last season? When BABIP hits him he’s going to barely be startable as a platoon bat.
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| 4:08 |
: Look at his SwStr% in particular. He IS Javier Baez.
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| 4:09 |
: Except he’s an outfielder with maybe minus defense
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| 4:09 |
: What do you think Philly will do with their newly crowded outfield?
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| 4:09 |
: They’ll swap Williams and stuff for a pitcher
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| 4:09 |
: I can’t imagine targeting AVG…but 6 ways to 1 half dozen to the other or however that goes
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| 4:10 |
: I know right. Jeff is a strict spreadsheet user. He’ll take Ian Desmond in the top 10 rounds because his projections tell him it’s a value. I fly by the seat of my pants and focus on ADP.
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| 4:10 |
: re: streaming pitchers. I noticed last year that streaming pitchers in my 13 team roto league was more hurtful than helpful. Did you find that also? If so, do you see it being a problem in ’18? Thanks.
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| 4:11 |
: Well… it sounds like you didn’t stream and keep Godley, Wood, Nelson, and Morton
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| 4:11 |
: Streaming is always going to hurt your stats. You use it because you 1. need the volume and 2. it’s the best chance to find these breakouts
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| 4:12 |
: So yea, your streamers in ’18 will hurt. The goal is to balance those out by hanging onto a godley when he wanders onto your roster
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| 4:12 |
: If I steal all the talent of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Clayton Kershaw Monstars-style, how many WAR would I be worth per season? Asking for a friend
|
| 4:13 |
: Sounds like about 16 WAR, assuming you can hit and pitch without needing rest
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| 4:13 |
: Mejia a fantasy asset this year?
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| 4:13 |
: Francisco?
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| 4:13 |
: I don’t think Jenrry is coming back
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| 4:14 |
: To answer your question, probably at some point. Not early in the season
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| 4:14 |
: Can plan to get him later unless you have an NA slot to stash him
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| 4:14 |
: Dynasty keep 25 league: can keep only one of Bradley Zimmer, Julio Urias or Danny Salazar. Who?
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| 4:15 |
: I have Zimmer and Salazar in my keep 28. Have Zim ranked higher.
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| 4:15 |
: Hello Brad
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| 4:15 |
: Hello Randy
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| 4:15 |
: I think this is a good place to wrap it up.
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| 4:15 |
: Paul and I may do a joint chat on Friday. See ya then or sometime in the future.
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| 4:16 |
: Oh, my article for tomorrow is weird. Go read it.
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam