Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12/18/2018

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few minutes

Steven: Ottoneu points-style dynasty league. What kind of trade value, in terms of prospects, do you think these Dodgers pitchers have: Maeda, Wood, Stripling?

Brad Johnson: Maybe like a $2 Carter Kieboom

Brad Johnson: There are basically 2 types of prospects in ottoneu – monsters like Vladito and guys who don’t matter

Brad Johnson: Kieboom, if $2, is one of the few who lives in the space between.

Brad Johnson: I don’t think you can get a premium prospect for any of those guys

Walt: What tier of closer (if any) could I get for Muncy ($9) plus Sheffield ($5) in an Ottoneu 5×5?

Brad Johnson: Should be able to choose whoever you want

Brad Johnson: A $9 Muncy should be rated above any closer – they’re either going to be expensive or just OK.

Slurve: What Relief-friendly stat will replace Saves in the majority of 5×5 fantasy leagues?  or will “pitching” sort of be mushed together in SP/RP Combo stats?

Brad Johnson: I think we’ll see more saves+holds. If there was a good invent-able alternative, I think we would have gotten there already

Brad Johnson: I know I’ve spent a lot of time thinking on the subject and have come up with zilch. Not to over-sell my “genius,” but I’m usually good at scheming up quirky little fixes to “problems”

Joe: Who goes number 1 in the all time fantasy draft?

Brad Johnson: Off the top of my head? Barry Bonds? We doing this sim league style?

Brad Johnson: Maybe a long term ace then. But I have trouble imagining a player with a better peak + longevity than Bonds.

Matt: Dynasty roto league my JP Crawford for his Glasnow. Both are currently in the minors. Fair? He’s got an abundance of pitching, and needs to clear some salary, so a potential cheap 3B in Crawford with upside could help.

Brad Johnson: Seems reasonable to me. I happen to still like JPC more than most, but Glasnow also looks like a solid asset right away.

Brad Johnson: JPC looks better in an OBP format fwiw

Brad Johnson: Just in a general sense, still think it’s fine to deal him for Glasnow

tacopocket: who do you like more as a keeper – robles, haniger or mondesi?

Brad Johnson: Mondesi was picked briefly before I had a chance to consider him in Dynasty To Be Named Later. I might as well link to that now since I assume it’ll come up a few times. h/o

Brad Johnson: This post gets you the draft results – we’re in the 4th round. https://www.patreon.com/posts/23334846

Brad Johnson: I’m BaseballATeam

Brad Johnson: Second pick was trending towards being a decision between Mondesi and Robles

Brad Johnson: I think I might have still gone Robles, but it’s a coin flip

Brad Johnson: This is also a dynasty scenario, in say a 10 team keeper, Robles would be out as an option.

Slurve: Which hitter that changes teams this off season will improve his fantasy value the most?

Brad Johnson: I want to say it’ll be somebody like Justin Bour or Yonder Alonso having a rebound season

Brad Johnson: Going from a draft day afterthought to somebody useful

Brad Johnson: Kinda love Cutch in Philly though. That small small park

Pie Eaton Contest: General thoughts on Eovaldi in QS/IP leagues?

Brad Johnson: I don’t see him as somebody who will consistently hit 6 IP in a start

Brad Johnson: He’s an interesting flier, but I think his postseason performance spoiled that opportunity

Brad Johnson: It’s a shame, I had a billion shares of him last season for nothing. Need to find a new rebound guy.

tacopocket: hey brad.  in a 5X5 auction league ($300 budget) league where we keep 5, can you rank these pitchers:   Flaherty @11.  Greinke @30.  Price @29.   Verlander @32.  Wheeler @5.

Brad Johnson: Probably go Flaherty, Verl, Wheeler. I assume you’re not keeping 5 pitchers.

bencole2727: Wade Davis hold the closer’s job all year in Colorado… he’s cheap in my dynasty for this year and next… or should I try to sell for prospects

Brad Johnson: I would see what’s available. Don’t force a trade, but if something with some long term shine is available, grab it.

Don: Do you see Pablo Lopez having any relevant fantasy value this year?  Seems like the Marlins will give him every opportunity to be their #1 guy

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I don’t have much info on Lopez. His stat line smells reasonably decent. But some stuff isn’t adding up

Brad Johnson: Appears he’s a fastball-curve pitcher but works down in the zone? That’s counter to what everybody is doing these days.

tacopocket: I hate spending on catchers in my 2 C league.  Are there some under the radar catchers that I can get semi cheap that will provide enough counting stats and not destroy my avg?

Brad Johnson: There will be. We need to wait a little long for the dust to settle. Minnesota could have 2 if they don’t sign somebody. Or zero if they do.

gary mack: I’m one of those guys constantly tinkering with my roster, it’s a very solid Ottoneu roster, geared for 2019-2021.  I want to keep tinkering – can one “overtinker.”

Brad Johnson: Absolutely, although more trades usually correlates to better success

bencole2727: How much longer can Rich Hill still produce at a 12 team 5th SP fantasy level?

Brad Johnson: Take it year to year

chet: why cant tyler white just play? i dont want houston to sign someone

Brad Johnson: That’s a great question. The answer is that they’re built to win a world series and his spot in the lineup is one of the only ones they can upgrade. He’d start for most teams.

Brad Johnson: I’m quietly scooping up as many cheap shares of White as I can find

Brad Johnson: And preparing to wait it out

tacopocket: I play in a standard 5X5 league and we’re thinking of replacing saves with Saves plus holds but I think that devalues closers too much.   What do you think of saves plus holds but a hold only counts for 1/2?

Brad Johnson: Do you have a platform that supports it? Holds are already less common than saves. SV+HD only truly devalues bad closers. Although lots of owners mistakenly treat them as the same.

tacopocket: rickey Henderson should be considered for the #1 slot.

Brad Johnson: This is for the all-time draft – and yes he should

chet: where would you stick bellinger in a dynasty rankings? top 30 overall?

Brad Johnson: He went 28 in our draft. I think that’s about right

Brad Johnson: 25-35 range?

Slurve: Which position player has the farthest gap between fantasy value and real value??

Brad Johnson: Andrelton Simmons?

Brad Johnson: or in the other direction, Dee Gordon?

Poops: Conforto coming back strong this year?  Looked like his power bounced back 2nd half.

Brad Johnson: I’m betting big on him – or at least I plan to

Brad Johnson: nobody is selling low. Nor were they when he was struggling.

Possum Jones: While I am pleased to see my Otto 4×4 keeper Carlos Santana out of the pitcher’s park in Seattle, isn’t “He’s thrilled to be back in Cleveland” right down there with “best shape of his life” and “Wow, what a spring training!  He’s a new batter!”?

Brad Johnson: I like him ahead of Ramirez and Lindor though

Brad Johnson: Progressive Field is good for him when batting lefty, not so much from the right side

CobraKai: 25 team dynasty, 5×5 Roto classic. Who are you taking next?

Brad Johnson: Oh shit, I’m on the clock. Excuse me folks

Brad Johnson: I’ll come back to this

Mr. Magoo: How quickly does Whitley make it to Houston?

Brad Johnson: that depends a little bit on how he looks this spring, and how quickly the Astros have a need in the rotation

Brad Johnson: It’s still a pretty strong unit

chet: should i try to get whatever i can for kuechel in fantasy before he signs? no idea what to expect from him in 2019

Brad Johnson: Again, go ahead and see what’s out there. But make sure it’s actually something. He goes on long brilliant streaks for fantasy purposes. I don’t think you need to dump him for anything at all.

DJ Tanner: Is Nimmo (and Conforto/Rosario/McNeil) value on the rise with hitters like Cano and Ramos being added to the lineup? Big fan of Nimmo but his R/RBI numbers are very lacking in a bad lineup.

Brad Johnson: Conforto is certainly helped. Nimmo might get shoved out of the top of the order which would hurt his value. Rosario is pretty much stuck in the 8-hole.

Brad Johnson: And McNeil as an everyday 3B seems… suspect… to me

Brad Johnson: Think he’ll be a frequently used bench bat

Brad Johnson: I see the potential for more from him, and I’m trying to acquire shares for when he’s eventually freed

Baseball: Is Albies, Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe, and Astudillo enough for Blake Snell? Fangraphs Points dynasty league, Snell is a little more expensive then those 4 combined.

Brad Johnson: Cheap Albies for Snell seems semi-reasonable. I don’t attach much/any value to the Lowes and Willians in FGpts right now.

Brad Johnson: And personally, I prefer Snell. I’m not a big Albies fan

Brad Johnson: As a hitter, he looks like (much) less powerful Rougned Odor

chet: any sleeper steals guys on your radar?

Brad Johnson: I’ll keep saying Roman Quinn even though his path to playing time is a little murkier now. And could get worse if the Phillies ink Harper.

Jim Leyland Palmer: Keep 5 forever, at draft cost (no escalating costs). Who do you take in the final two spots: Realmuto (12th), Bauer (11th) and Buehler (23rd)

Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth

Brad Johnson: The deeper the league, the more attractive Buehler looks

Brad Johnson: You’re not going wrong with any combination of those 3. I honestly can’t be more specific as I can think of multiple scenarios in which I would take any combo of the two.

Defenestrater: Gore, Hamilton, and Merrifield on the same team. Royals are really going to steal next year, aren’t they?

Brad Johnson: And Mondesi!

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I don’t think anybody expects Gore to play

Brad Johnson: I assume they’re just counting on being able to eventually trade him for something

Matt W: Better keeper at a similar price: Happ or Morton?

Brad Johnson: I prefer Morton

Brad Johnson: It’s not a big gap

chet: are we buying marquez’s 2nd half in colorado? SP is so scarce in my dynasty league…i’m fine with auction overpays, but for a colorado pitcher?

Brad Johnson: I buy it. The breakout came with an adjustment to throw higher fastballs – which blends well with his breaking balls

Brad Johnson: Coors Field is always worrisome – I wouldn’t pay for a sub-3.00 ERA or anything

Matt: Is Juan Soto the real enough deal that you wouldn’t even think about trading him for a below market ($38) Altuve that you’d keep for 2 years?

Brad Johnson: Yes, depending on league depth and how long you can keep Soto

Brad Johnson: If we’re talking a 10 team shallow roster format, then I might prefer Altuve. The deeper the league, the better Soto looks.

Brad Johnson: BREAKING: BaseballATeam selects Bo Bichette 4.17

Brad Johnson: That’s 92nd overall

Brad Johnson: #DTBNL

Slurve: Fangraphs ever thought about a live “Chat” format draft in real time with like a 30 second-1 minute limit for each pick.  I’d tune in…esp. if someone could keep track of the teams as writers are picking

Brad Johnson: I don’t think JotCast works well with that many moderators

Brad Johnson: But we’ve run some draft-type things in the past, I don’t think they were fan favorites

Brad Johnson: I assume that’s why we stopped

Brad Johnson: Or maybe it was just the logistical nightmare

Slurve: maybe have an extra writer not participate only to be left to cap on “stupid” picks and other commentary…

Brad Johnson: Could do something in Discord, but we don’t have a Discord community for some reason.

Tom AND Jerry: Should there be any playing time concerns for Brantley owners? Depth can be scary.

Brad Johnson: Not really. He’ll maybe get a little more rest than we’re used to, but that should serve to keep him fresh.

Michael: How do you feel about Miguel Cabrera at $22 in an AL-Only 4×4? Worthwhile risk with the shallow 1B pool in the AL?

Brad Johnson: I think so, assuming you can’t use that $22 more constructively elsewhere

Flip: Royce Lewis in the 3rd seems a little aggressive doesn’t it? Or more likely, I’m just way too low

Flip: on him?

Brad Johnson: This is a topic I may write about tomorrow since my strategy is pretty apparent by now

Brad Johnson: This league is designed to discourage tanking – but it’s not explicitly banned

Brad Johnson: there just aren’t any major benefits to finishing last, and it’s relatively easy to have a shot at making money

Brad Johnson: So I decided to zig (or zag or whatever) by going young. At least in the early game, I’m only competing for resources with a couple teams. Everybody else is fighting for MLBers

Brad Johnson: now that we’ve dug past guys like Lewis, Bichette, Rodgers, and Adell, most of the owners who selected MLBers will look at the available minor leaguers and decide to stick with big leaguers

Brad Johnson: And that pattern should continue

Brad Johnson: In a year or two, I’ll have traded my way out of the basement with some long term monsters locked in

Slurve: Who’s a good zag (to the zig) target to throw out into an auction early – a guy you don’t want for yourself but hype, etc. will create overzealous bidding?

Brad Johnson: Speaking of…

Brad Johnson: You probably want Mondesi, but I can’t wait to throw him in the first round

Pie Eaton Contest: Keeping Rosario in the 8th round or Nimmo in the 17th, 6×6 obp/slug replace avg?

Brad Johnson: I consider them to be pretty similar. Might go for Nimmo as a result

georgehermanski: Have you read Baseball Cop? What do you think about the idea  that a LOT of players are still taking PEDs?

Brad Johnson: i think that comes down to how loosely you define PEDs. Everybody is taking supplements.

Brad Johnson: It’s just a matter of if they’re league approved/trip the testing parameters

Brad Johnson: PED usage is most rampant in players before they sign with a club

Brad Johnson: Both for international and US-based player

Brad Johnson: Most high profile college players are an exception – Pretty sure NCAA has some testing rules they have to dodge

DJ Tanner: Does the fact that Realmuto and Kyle Tucker went next to each other in your dynasty draft suggest they are about to swap teams?

Brad Johnson: That adds up! Except the Astros only get 2 years of Realmuto.

CobraKai: 25 team dynasty 5×5 roto classic…I am soooo annoyed with you right now.

Brad Johnson: The guy who first picks Ronald Acuna is mad at me?

Flip: What’s your strategy for going all prospects? This seems counter to your usual stance on rostering very few prospects?

Brad Johnson: Yes!

Brad Johnson: I’m trying something different

Brad Johnson: The thought process is that, so long as I’m not over-competing for young resources, I should easily emerge from the draft with the most long-term value – at the expense of all present value.

Brad Johnson: It’s already too late for other teams to adjust. A few are using a similar approach so we’ll fight over the youths.

Brad Johnson: but a good 21 of the 25 teams are locked into picking MLBers now or getting stuck in a netherland of neither competitive now nor possessing enough big long term assets.

Zesty Sauce: Who ya got in a dynasty – Chapman or Andujar?  I’m worried about an Andouille position-change.

Brad Johnson: I liked today’s news that Andujar is working with Beltre

Brad Johnson: Though that doesn’t mean he’ll improve defensively

Brad Johnson: At least they’re trying

Brad Johnson: And he’s athletic enough that he COULD improve

Brad Johnson: As most of you know, I’m very bearish on Andujar on the basis that his defense is unplayable for a team named the New York Yankees

Zesty Sauce: You think Profar is a starter in a 12-teamer that uses a MI slot?  No steals in this league and OBP instead of AVG.

Brad Johnson: Yes, he’s a starter

Brad Johnson: Just a core performer type

Brad Johnson: Probably a $1-3 guy tbh

Ham: Re: your strategy in DTBNL, was that reactive to how the draft was going, or were you planning on that going in?

Brad Johnson: A little of both. This was Plan A because I expected the draft to go this way.

Brad Johnson: It helped that Soto was available to me at pick 9

Brad Johnson: And then when everybody ran for pitchers in round 2, that sealed it for me

Brad Johnson: There’s no reason to draft a round 2 pitcher and also load up on prospects

Brad Johnson: So all of those teams won’t dip into the prospect well more than a couple times until they fill out their positions and pitching staffs

Matt W: Sorry catching up on the chat, about 30 minutes behind. Was I really today years old when I realized that Whitley Houston is a thing? Whitley Houston! I am amused.

Matt: Do you build Z-Score type rankings? I’ve been trying to adjust SB’s – because the average and median are so far off. Billy Hamilton becomes super valuable, even though he’s a black hole in every other category. Should I trust the math? I’ve been taking the square-root of SBs, and it seems to pass a sniff test to me.

Brad Johnson: I don’t anymore. I don’t think they model drafting behavior well, and I also over-anchor to any values I use

Brad Johnson: It’s been awhile since I’ve used them

Brad Johnson: I would not get over-excited about Billy Ham. He’s best used as a bench guy who plays 2/3 of the time in place of guys with off days and/or really bad matchups

Brad Johnson: And that shouldn’t cost more than $5

Dave: If you had to choose, would you rather go stars hitters and scrubs pitchers or vice versa?

Brad Johnson: Almost always go with the hitters

Brad Johnson: I have a H2H league that pushes me in the pitchers direction pretty consistently

Brad Johnson: But that’s 1 of a dozen or more leagues

Brad Johnson: Ok, time to wrap it up. I’m being told only I can slay the evil Spaghetti Squash

Brad Johnson: I got a bunch of questions about Brandon Woodruff – presumably from the same person using different names

Brad Johnson: I do not have any special insights into him at this time.

Matt W: How many years will Sanchez get enough ABs at catcher to stay eligible?

Brad Johnson: A bunch. Despite his reputation, he’s a pretty decent catcher.

Phil: Bullish on Max Muncy?

Brad Johnson: Yes

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll play

Brad Johnson: He’s not a platoon hitter near as I can tell

Zesty Sauce: Is Jack Flaherty a top-30 SP this year?

Brad Johnson: Is he a top 30 draft target? Definitely.

Brad Johnson: Will he finish in the top 30? That’s far less certain.

Craig: Top 5 closers for 2019 please 🙂

Brad Johnson: Diaz, Kimbrel, Jansen, Treinen, Chapman – in some order

Brad Johnson: Take it easy folks, see you in January.

Brad Johnson: Not planning to do a Christmas day chat!