Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10/30/2018
by Brad Johnson
October 30, 2018
Here is today’s chat transcript which started a little catcher heavy before moving on to other topics.
| 3:52 |
: We’ll get started in a bit. Until then, a little self-promotion.
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| 3:55 |
: I’m doing custom fantasy games for my patrons this offseason. Future contests will have a prize of $50. This month’s contest is a simple Qualifying Offer Game with a $10 prize. There’s currently only a few entrees so a new $1/mo patron has a really decent chance to come out ahead.
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| 3:55 |
: I also announced the first patron fantasy league, a 20 team dynasty that will begin slow drafting in December. Details are still up for discussion.
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| 3:56 |
: On a completely different note, I began a free agent analysis series with a look at catchers.
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| 4:02 |
: Appreciate the FA analysis series! When it comes to fantasy, how do you see catchers shaking out? Realmuto….and then?
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| 4:05 |
: As of now, I think I’m still tossing the dice on big home run totals from Gary Sanchez. I’ll also try for a rebound Contreras. Maybe a cheap Posey if he’s falling to a dollar. In general, I’m looking to go budget with guys like Ramos, Perez, Zunino, Narvaez, Cervelli, Chirinos, Suzuki, and Yadi.
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| 4:05 |
: Maybe people overreact to Grandal’s postseason, but I doubt it
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| 4:06 |
: For fantasy, how do you see the younger catchers doing for 2019? Mejia, Barnes, Jansen have all shown flashes, Alfaro got a ton of time, Kiner-Falefa’s still C eligible?
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| 4:06 |
: Barnes is deceptively not young
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| 4:06 |
: fwiw
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| 4:07 |
: Jansen and Mejia both have some pretty serious upside, but they’ll probably cost more than a bunch of a boring veterans who are likely to outperform them
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| 4:07 |
: Where are we expecting lack of positional depth in 2019? C seems obvious, but 3B, 2B and SS seem DEEP, especially compared to 5 years ago.
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| 4:08 |
: 1B is the only position with any kind of scarcity – besides the black hole of C and aces
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| 4:08 |
: closers could be a deeply weird position again
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| 4:09 |
: There’s no predicting how the reliever market will work out
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| 4:09 |
: Aroldis Chapman lost his job…
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| 4:09 |
: in an nl only, i have talion ($20) and flaherty ($21) as keepers. Are those guys good enough to top my rotation or is it worth it to still get a scherzer who may cost $40?
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| 4:09 |
: I think for NL only those are reasonable “aces”
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| 4:11 |
: I also don’t think it’s a terrible idea to add Scherzer too. Assuming you can swallow spending $81 on your top 3 pitchers. Doing this kind of depends on an obvious path to dominating the pitching categories. If other rivals are already in a better position to win those categories, you may want to choose a different path to victory.
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| 4:11 |
: Are you generally a ceiling (Higher risk/reward) or floor (safe/consistent) guy in drafting prospects? how about veterans? any personal trends?
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| 4:12 |
: It’s all very context dependent. I want a diversified portfolio in general, although I’ll also consider what I need.
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| 4:13 |
: If we’re mid-draft and my roster is in some trouble, I’ll start going high variance in the hopes of catching some good fortune. If I’m crushing, then I might go boring in a spot or three.
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| 4:13 |
: In any kind of trading league, it’s important to remember that it’s very hard to trade boring for fair value. And it’s very easy to talk someone into an overpay for anything shiny
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| 4:13 |
: So I do make a point of getting some shiny stuff
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| 4:14 |
: Who are your top 3-5 catchers for next year?
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| 4:14 |
: Realmuto, Sanchez, uh
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| 4:14 |
: Honestly, Ramos might be third depending on team/role
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| 4:14 |
: Contreras is in the mix for third too
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| 4:15 |
: then it gets a little sloppy into the Grandal, Molina, Suzuki, Perez, and maybe Jansen group
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| 4:15 |
: I’m probably missing somebody, I hope I am
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| 4:15 |
: oh, right, we have to see what’s what with Posey
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| 4:15 |
: Are you de-valuing Dodgers’ players slightly at all for 2019? Their depth and platoon proclivities make it hard to expect a full season of ABs from most of them.
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| 4:16 |
: de-valuing isn’t how I’d describe it
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| 4:16 |
: Yes, I expect more off days which can be a pain in the ass if you don’t have a lot of bench to work with
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| 4:17 |
: But I also expect those players to be better per PA than they otherwise would be
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| 4:17 |
: It’s more of an issue with their starting pitchers imo
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| 4:17 |
: Do you see any top-flight SP getting moved this offseason? Paxton, Greinke, Carlos Martinez all have had a least a little noise around them
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| 4:17 |
: I don’t really expect the Mariners to throw in the towel
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| 4:18 |
: Too many of their players are still good but basically untradeable
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| 4:18 |
: they’re pot committed
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| 4:18 |
: to borrow a poker term
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| 4:18 |
: I also doubt the Diamondbacks sell off, although they’ll be more serious about exploring the options
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| 4:18 |
: And may deal Greinke even if they’re aiming to contend
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| 4:19 |
: Jose Suarez, Griffin Canning, Jesus Luzardo–are any of these names enticing, given the rotation openings in LAA and OAK?
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| 4:19 |
: They’re names to file away for later.
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| 4:19 |
: With the way young pitchers are usually used these days, I see no reason to go out of my way to roster them early in most formats
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| 4:20 |
: For every emergent SP who provides fantasy value, half a dozen bust hard
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| 4:20 |
: even if they show flashes of upside
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| 4:20 |
: Buehler or Snell over the next 3 years? They’d be my final keeper in a shallow QS league
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| 4:20 |
: Buehler is my pick. I think I may be in the minority
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| 4:21 |
: I’m turning out to be a Snell doubter even though I like him
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| 4:21 |
: The issue is the division as much as any regression expectations
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| 4:21 |
: Would you rather roll with a $10 Andrus, or $6 Mondessi at SS next year?
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| 4:22 |
: I like the idea of a $16 Andressi if you can keep both
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| 4:22 |
: Have your floor and eat your ceiling too
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| 4:23 |
: As of today, I’d probably lean going upside with Mondesi
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| 4:23 |
: if I’m only picking one
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| 4:23 |
: That’s not locked in
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| 4:23 |
: Dynasty roto league (QS, K, ERA, WHIP, SV). Nola is at the top of my rotation, then nothing. I’m not likely to be able to put anything significant at the top of my rotation, but I took end of season fliers on Davies, Gohara, D Rodriguez, and will have cheap toptions on Gibson and Fiers. Do you think that group can combine for my 3-5, if I can try to get *something* semi significant in the #2 spot?
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| 4:25 |
: I regularly contend in dynasty leagues with slop pitching. Guys like Derek Holland, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Minor, and Gibson are regularly free. It’s just a matter of finding them. Boring veteran rebounds are likely to continue next season as more and more pitchers decide to pay attention to which of their pitches actually perform well
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| 4:25 |
: In most of these rebound cases, we’re just seeing guys ditch terrible pitches they’ve irrationally clung to throwing for years
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| 4:25 |
: Do you draft injury stashes in keeper/dynasty leagues? I got hooked after getting a $3 Darvish a few years back, but this year had a Jimmy Nelson filling a DL slot that could’ve seen better use all year. Any good ones you’re hoping to grab late in the draft/auction this spring?
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| 4:26 |
: Posey springs immediately to mind. Winker. Kopech. I’m sure there are some others
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| 4:26 |
: I haven’t climbed into that pool yet
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| 4:26 |
: I do like the strategy in keeper/dynasty formats. Less keen in season long, especially in this everybody-to-the-DL meta
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| 4:27 |
: how high you willing to spend on acuna or soto in an NL only auctions?
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| 4:27 |
: too soon too soon
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| 4:27 |
: too young too young
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| 4:27 |
: too soon too soon
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| 4:27 |
: (I have no idea)
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| 4:27 |
: Predictions for Andrew Miller’s role next year?
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| 4:27 |
: Setup reliever
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| 4:27 |
: Looking at the list of 2017 TJ surgeries for hidden gems, Michael Pineda’s name jumped out to me. Worth a late-round flier?
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| 4:28 |
: Sure. I’ve always thought he was an elite reliever with no hope to start fwiw
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| 4:28 |
: Re: Dodgers: How about in a league with a weekly lineup lock? Hard to take advantage of the per/PA value if they’re only playing 4 games per week and you can’t make daily substitutions.
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| 4:28 |
: True, especially if it’s a shallow league. It’s not a such a big deal in deeper formats where 4 good games can outclass 6 bad ones
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| 4:28 |
: Is $24 too high to keep Baez and $40 too high to keep Blackmon?
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| 4:29 |
: Need more context. Assuming 12 team mixed, no and yes
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| 4:29 |
: $260-ish budget part of the assumption
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| 4:29 |
: Nimmo going to be closer to his hot streaks next year, or his cold streaks? Is he a legit .360+ OBP guy who can hit 25 HRs? You taking him over Bader?
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| 4:29 |
: As a hitter, I prefer Nimmo to Bader
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| 4:29 |
: I’ll buy the season line more or less
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| 4:30 |
: Has saber-metrics or writing about baseball made you less of a fan? Why or why not?
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| 4:30 |
: No. I’m far more invested in the MLB product than I used to be when I was solely a player
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| 4:31 |
: I used to barely watch baseball back when I played 7 days a week
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| 4:32 |
: Sabermetrics in particular really spoke to me. I discovered them around 2007. I was always an OBP guy growing up, and I had come up with my own (shitty) version of WAR without knowing it
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| 4:33 |
: Which was most memorably used to compare Pat Burrell to Carlos Lee and determine that Lee was not enough of an upgrade to invest.
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| 4:33 |
: Joey Gallo started slow but was amazing in the second half, but I feel like perception is he had a disappointing season. Are you buying him next year? Think he can sustain his second half or will we see another season with totals similar to the last two?
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| 4:33 |
: The narrative on Gallo is his ability to adjust. I’m bullish. At the very least, you can bank a billion HR
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| 4:34 |
: since the Rangers are rebuilding, they should be plenty patient with his low AVG
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| 4:34 |
: Nick Ahmed worth anything next year in NL only? Had him as a $1 NL Only SS, and an tempted to keep him, but he’s so boring and was so bad before last year’s power surge
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| 4:34 |
: Definitely keep him. There’s a chance the power surge is smoke and mirrors, but it’s worth taking a $1 flier
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| 4:34 |
: This is jumping off from something that was in Meg’s chat earlier: Who do you think has the best career out of players Dombrowski has traded from BOS? Moncada, Kopech, Travis Shaw, Margot, Anderson Espinoza?
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| 4:34 |
: Kopech if he can find health, Moncada otherwise
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| 4:35 |
: Shaw may shine brightest if Kopech never fully recovers, but his career will be too short to outdo Moncada.
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| 4:35 |
: One of my leagues last year had me trying to find playing time for 3 out of 5 of Hicks, Pham, Benintendi, Bellinger, and Haniger on a day-to-day basis. Which three of that group do you like most for 2019?
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| 4:35 |
: Oh
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| 4:36 |
: Benintendi and the Same Asset Class
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| 4:36 |
: Personally, Hicks and Pham
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| 4:36 |
: I’m sucker for speed/power blends
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| 4:36 |
: even if the speed is modest
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| 4:36 |
: I kinda love all of these guys
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| 4:37 |
: So in the 18 inning marathon, Eovaldi pitched a QO (6 IP, 1 ER in extras). Can’t wait to make that a fantasy stat.
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| 4:37 |
: This is referencing my article from earlier today. Not everybody is on board…
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| 4:38 |
: Please give me three rookie or sleeper names that have huge upside but aren’t household names right now.
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| 4:39 |
: I’m not ready to go super deep with this yet. Roman Quinn, Tony Kemp, Ramon Laureano are in-majors guys who will be shooting up draft boards under certain conditions
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| 4:39 |
: Kemp could be pushed into a reserve role again, although that is a great misjustice
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| 4:39 |
: With Kershaw priced out as one of my keepers and my pts league team in general needing a bit of a mini rebuild, I want to target a high-upside pitcher who will also contribute at some point in 2019 early in my draft. Is it Whitley or bust? Any other prospects on the radar who can give ace upside but has a chance to contribute next season?
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| 4:41 |
: As with Luke’s question, I don’t have a full grasp on the young pitcher scene. That’s the last place I worry about because it’s so volatile. Mike Soroka could be a rebound target. Brent Honeywell will be back at some point. I assume Alex Reyes will be kept. Casey Mize could move fast. Kyle Wright too?
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| 4:41 |
: I’m sure I’m missing a LOT of targets
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| 4:41 |
: what lineup strategies work the best in H2H leagues: lefty/righty matchups, sitting hitters vs. elite pitchers, sitting pitchers vs. elite hitting lineups, something else?
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| 4:42 |
: I don’t use one set of tactics personally
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| 4:43 |
: it’s just a matter of judging the best course based on your matchup, current accrued stats, and personnel
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| 4:43 |
: Which is both very simple and quite complicated
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| 4:43 |
: There are too many moving parts to suggest one size fits all approach
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| 4:44 |
: I do find it easiest to load up on aces and dominate pitching stats. Then just work on incrementally upgrading hitters until you have a few steady categories. Usually sacrificing HR/RBI for R/SB/AVG
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| 4:44 |
: But not always
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| 4:44 |
: Actually hadn’t noticed the article, more finding good examples of when I threw out the QO idea and you promised me 10% of the millions you’ll make. Glad it’s coming to fruition, great work!
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| 4:44 |
: I told you I’d forget
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| 4:44 |
: I legit forgot
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| 4:44 |
: Hey Brad! League set-up question for you — I’m trying to introduce a keeper system into my 12-tm league that always drafts via snake drafts. What’s the best noob-friendly keeper setup for us? Thanks!
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| 4:44 |
: The simplest is keep X at no cost where X equals whatever number you choose
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| 4:45 |
: You can add a slight complication by attaching a cost, say draft round minus two. That’s pretty common.
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| 4:45 |
: Alternatively, you can limit the number of seasons a player may be kept, although that requires some manual tracking on most sites
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| 4:47 |
: You would add a cost or contract length if you’re concerned about one owner loading up on Trout, Ramirez, Betts, and Turner while another maybe only has Nola, Tatis, Haniger, and Soto. That’s obviously pretty unfair if the former team isn’t losing their first four picks compared to maybe picks four, eight, 23, and 24 for the latter
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| 4:47 |
: Any thoughts on Crawford or Kingery going forward in Philadelphia? Might one of them be traded, if the Phils land Machado?
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| 4:48 |
: I doubt they’d be traded unless some sort of blockbuster deal is found
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| 4:48 |
: As of now, I don’t see an obvious fit anywhere. Greinke is the only major rumored target that might appeal to Philly, and that wouldn’t require a JPC or Kingery type player
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| 4:49 |
: I think they’ll just be patient
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| 4:49 |
: Machado obviously isn’t a shortstop on a club with JPC.
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| 4:49 |
: I’m also buying into the narrative that they’re moving on from Machado
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| 4:50 |
: The Philly market/fan base is not the right match for him
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| 4:50 |
: Most northeast teams are the wrong fit tbh
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| 4:50 |
: I guess I hadn’t noticed that since I’ve been blacked out of Orioles games for basically his entire career
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| 4:51 |
: Finally joined an Ottoneu team, and taking over a last place team. I’m assuming the following guys are too expensive to keep (12 team FG points): Kris Bryant $57, Posey $33, Jose Abreu $31, McCutheon $25, Cano $22, Bumgarner $41, Keuchel $28 … any worth it?
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| 4:51 |
: No. Although you can opt to keep one or two if there isn’t much left on the balance sheet after them
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| 4:51 |
: Then just trade them and a big loan for good keepers. And focus your draft resources on getting good keepers
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| 4:52 |
: Ironically, the easiest path to getting good keepers is rostering a lot of $1 players. But you also want to use all $400 less a few bucks of spending cash
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| 4:53 |
: So in short, you need lots of cheapies and then plenty of good expensive players you can sell for more cheapies
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| 4:53 |
: That’s ottoneu rebuilding 101
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| 4:53 |
: Speaking of JPC….is he ever going to hit?
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| 4:53 |
: I think so
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| 4:53 |
: Perhaps not in a super exciting way, and it might take awhile like Arcia
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| 4:54 |
: We’ve got a 8×8 H2H keeper league (borderline dynasty w/ 10 keepers). I don’t have a second baseman right now as I traded Treinen for Merrifield straight up this year. Who do you like better to fill that spot: Kingery or Goodrum?
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| 4:54 |
: Goodrum short term
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| 4:54 |
: Kingery should continue to fill a super utility role
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| 4:54 |
: He may even find his way back to Triple-A for some much-needed seasoning
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| 4:54 |
: Is JP Crawford really considered a valuable piece these days? Is it just post-hype sleeper value? He has uh, not had very strong results in his career.
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| 4:55 |
: Definitely in the real world. He has high end plate discipline and good contact rates
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| 4:56 |
: My take is that he tries to do too much and could improve simply by aging into more strength and not trying to overdo it
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| 4:56 |
: Will Benentendi be 2019s Yelich?
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| 4:57 |
: I doubt it
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| 4:57 |
: He’s a good example of what I see as possible for JPC btw
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| 4:58 |
: He doesn’t try to make anything extra happen. Just works counts and puts the barrel on the ball. He’ll age into a little more power eventually.
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| 4:58 |
: I’m torn on Andujar. I’m a Yanks fan, and he has been one of my favorite prospects for quite some time. I’m just concerned that the OBP might not be enough, and well…he might not be a 3B, or a Yankee. Sell high?
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| 4:58 |
: I’m selling in the 0 leagues I own him
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| 4:59 |
: I’m just not a big believer. Without a defensive position, there’s just way too much risk of getting nothing from him
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| 4:59 |
: Good Ryon Healy seems to be a rough approximation of the upside imo
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| 5:00 |
: I can’t imagine the Yankees will put up with a second full season of him
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| 5:00 |
: And Luke Voit is a better hitter for 1B
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| 5:00 |
: Which is weird but true
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| 5:00 |
: Time to wrap it up, I have some errands to run
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| 5:01 |
: You should join my Patreon contest. Entries are due by end of tonight for a chance at $10. (see beginning of the chat).
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| 5:02 |
: True, you have to be a patron, but that’s only $1/mo for a chance at $10 (and I currently have fewer than 5 entries)
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| 5:02 |
: ok, a few more
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| 5:02 |
: Given the state of the catcher position, is Gary Sanchez worth keeping (10 keepers) over someone like Josh Hader (Holds is a category)?
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| 5:02 |
: Ehhh
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| 5:03 |
: In a deep format, probably. If it’s 12 team, 1 C or shallower, nah
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| 5:03 |
: Thoughts on Conforto? He showed flashes of being useful again last year. That power coming back as he gets further from surgery to reattach his arm?
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| 5:03 |
: Jump on that wagon
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| 5:03 |
: On the topic of JPC: Mondesi came up really young, and is finally doing exciting things. Urias is in a little bit of the same boat. Do you see any other post-post-hype sleepers? Guys that feel like they’ve been around forever but are still under 25? Dahl, Tapia, Margot, Barreto?
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| 5:03 |
: The Mondesi hype already seems to be way out of control. What can we realistically expect from this guy next year?
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| 5:04 |
: I talked through some Mondesi outcomes earlier this offseason.
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| 5:04 |
: I like Margot as a post-post-hype guy
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| 5:04 |
: This is another subject area I don’t really have prepared on October 30.
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| 5:04 |
: We’ll get there!
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| 5:04 |
: 3 RH hitters in 9th and Boston brings in Sale rather than one of the top 3 closers in baseball. Worked out, but what am I missing?
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| 5:05 |
: I think Kimbrel was probably more gassed than Sale
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| 5:05 |
: Since it’s maybe just me and my C questions… the Grandal/Barnes platoon turned up great two years ago for a one C league – are there any combos that you see worth rostering both?
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| 5:05 |
: Mikolas was great this year – any former MLB guys that might come back this winter?
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| 5:05 |
: There will be – just wait for some guys to sign
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| 5:05 |
: I don’t know of any big returnees like Mikolas or Thames
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| 5:06 |
: I got every question, huzzah.
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| 5:06 |
: See ya next week.
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