Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/8/2019

Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a few minutes.

Walt: 5×5 Ottoneu. Is Wily Peralta a keeper at $5?

Brad Johnson: That’s an easy cut

Brad Johnson: The saves aren’t worth the pain in other categories

Brad Johnson: Good chance they find a better closer

MeDeKe: Of the next crop of SS – let’s say between AA and 2 yrs in MLB – who are the top 3 you would target to build a team around in a dynasty league? Who are a couple of prospect SS who are likely under the radar now, but might make that same list in 2-3 years? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: This is a difficult question to answer off the cuff. Lemme pull up some resources.

Brad Johnson: So for the near term guys – Mondesi, Torres, Kieboom, Urias, Lewis, Bichette, Tatis, Franco, Rodgers, and Adames all fit the script

Brad Johnson: I’m sure I’m forgetting some

Brad Johnson: Those aren’t in any order either

Brad Johnson: The position is ridiculously strong

Brad Johnson: Further down the line, I REALLY like what Xavier Edwards showed in his first look

Brad Johnson: Looks like Dee Gordon with plate discipline

Brad Johnson: There’s no shortage of other deeper options including two Luis Garcias

King Donko of Punchstania: What are the odds Muncy starts the year as LAD’s starting 2B?

Brad Johnson: Gotta figure almost zero

Brad Johnson: First base is another story. I’d call that almost likely.

Brad Johnson: Consider these free agent 2B: Asdrubal, Dietrich, Dozier, Flores, Forsythe, Marwin, Harrison, DJLM, Lowrie, Solarte, and Walker

Brad Johnson: Most of those aren’t better than Muncy, but they’re mostly a defensive upgrade with Muncy at 1B. Some should be very cheap.

Brad Johnson: And the few that legit challenge Muncy like Lowrie and DJLM should be affordable too.

Brad Johnson: The trade market for 2B is robust too

weezy: where do you stand on Scooter? Is he more like the 96 wRC+ of his projection, or his 120 wRC+ of his last 2 seasons?

Brad Johnson: Definitely closer to the 120 of the last two

Brad Johnson: projections don’t do well with changes in approach

Brad Johnson: Which consequently means projection systems are in very muddy water these days

Brad Johnson: Both pitchers and hitters are changing in ways they never used to

Brad Johnson: It used to be we could pretty much pin down 90% of the league as “that’s what they are”

Brad Johnson: It’s much different now

Zesty Sauce: Is Astudillo worth a $3 keep in Ottoneu 4×4?

Brad Johnson: Astudillo is the most difficult player I have to grapple with this offseason. I just can’t see the Twins setting him free.

Brad Johnson: I really want them to, but Castro and Garver are better catchers. And they hit just enough.

Brad Johnson: Garver may even be a better than average hitter.

Brad Johnson: Astudillo has been talked about as a possible 3B, but that would require Sano to DH. Which isn’t happening now that Nelson Cruz is in town

Brad Johnson: He could bump CJ Cron from the lineup. Seems like a stretch.

Brad Johnson: Even so, at $3, I’m very tempted to keep him just for the pure joy of it.

Brad Johnson: It’s just $3 and 1/40th of your roster. From a purely cold blooded perspective, he’s a bad bet and a cut.

Krang Bang: Bryant or Correa in an OBP dynasty?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Bryant.

Ryan: Thanks for chatting. Looking for a new platform to play, as I am tired of Yahoo. Any preferences? I prefer daily lineups, H2H, and would like to get into a dynasty/keeper league. Also, my friends are losers who don’t want to play, so probably couldn’t field my own league.

Brad Johnson: FanTrax is the place to go then. Especially if you’re not concerned about using a mobile app as that accounts for 90% of the complaints about them.

Brad Johnson: In my opinion, they’re tied best with CBS for dynasty and tied best with Yahoo for shallow redraft.

Brad Johnson: (and ottoneu is super cool too)

Brad Johnson: Also, a shameless plug, my patrons will be offered a number of normal and experimental patron leagues on FanTrax. It’ll be a good place to find fun leagues.

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/join/BaseballATeam?

CW: Ohtani – what is the max price are you keeping him in 5×5 otto?  I have an expensive share ($39 – pre ST draft) so it’d probably be wisest to throw him back, I just have no clue what he’ll go for.  As a fan I really want him on my team.

Brad Johnson: This is very dependent on the rest of your roster. The way I approach roster building is to make sure I use all of my dollars efficiently with an eye towards avoiding the draft

Brad Johnson: There are only two types of values in ottoneu drafts

Brad Johnson: 1. Premium talents who are underpaid. You CANNOT count on this happening.

Brad Johnson: 2. $1 guys who break out

Brad Johnson: I finish my roster then draft only $1 guys. Occasionally I’ll have extra money for like a $23 Adam Eaton or $8 Jackie Bradley Jr.

Brad Johnson: I’d rather just pay a little extra for an Ohtani

Brad Johnson: So… short version is he’s probably a cut but if you’re sitting on a lot of cap room you should keep him.

Brad Johnson: I don’t have otto dollar values at hand

Joe: Would you feel secure with Buehler, Clev, and Wheeler as your top 3 in a 12 team points league?

Brad Johnson: Sure. I’d put a little more effort into improving that on draft day though.

Matt W: My league (h2h pts) is toying with the idea of a losers bracket to keep owners engaged after they fall out of the playoff hunt (last year was particularly bad for this because the playoff teams were basically unchanged from like June, though in past years there was much more of a race tot he finish). Do loser’s brackets ever work? Any other ideas to keep guys engaged?

Brad Johnson: Not in my experience

Brad Johnson: I’ve had some success in a keeper league with tiered entry fees based on finish.

Brad Johnson: I’ve also had some success with expanded playoffs. One of my league went from 6 to 8 teams in the playoffs a couple years back. Since then, the regular season and playoff prizes have all gone to different owners.

Brad Johnson: (I finished 8th and won the playoffs last season)

Brad Johnson: You’ll still have some owners ghost midseason in disgust

Biscuit: % Chance Brian Anderson hits 20 bombs this year?

Biscuit: Who would you rather have going forward, Margot or Brian Anderson?

Brad Johnson: Depends on the setting. I’ll take dynasty shares of Margot. If I have some idea of my roster and know I need speed, still Margot in shallower leagues. Anderson is a higher floor asset who I think we’ll take another step forward within the next few years

Brad Johnson: I’ll say 40% to hit 20 in 2019

Brad Johnson: That’s a WAG

Dereck Rodriguez: so I had a suppppppper BABIP-y rookie season, but do I have any promise for 2019?

Brad Johnson: Some, yes.

Brad Johnson: We should expect regression, but DRod has a long history of outperforming his FIP. Coupled with his home park, I think he could be relatively decent.

Brad Johnson: For him to be a serious fantasy asset, he needs to improve.

Brad Johnson: What scares me most is a near-40% hard contact rate

Bob Villar: What are the odds Jose Ramirez starts the year as CLE’s starting 2B?

Brad Johnson: Close to zero

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure why they would sign Mike Moustakas when they can get the same from a much cheaper second baseman

Brad Johnson: (presumably cheaper)

Brad Johnson: Or they could sign OFers and leave Kipnis on the dirt

Brad Johnson: Actually, I wrote about this today: https://www.patreon.com/posts/23842735

King Donko of Punchstania: How many 2019 PAs do you estimate for Kingery?

Brad Johnson: I’ll guess 275

Fred Yost: What players current ADP are you just smitten over? I’m really excited by Heaney and see tons of value in waiting for starting pitching

Brad Johnson: I avoid looking at rankings and ADP for as long as possible.

Brad Johnson: I’m hearing a lot about Nelson Cruz going around #100? That’s ridiculous

Darragh: Most fantasy rankings have Grandal around 150 or so. But I’m in a league with OPS instead of AVG, which I think easily bumps him up to being the second-best catcher after Sanchez and easily into the top 100 overall. Am I about right?

Brad Johnson: I’d still be picking Realmuto (assuming a trade to a contender) first as the floor is far better than those for Grandal and Sanchez.

Brad Johnson: Grandal would be in the top 3 though, yes. I have trouble believing he’d be top 100 unless you’re overvaluing catcher. Even if he is, he should be available later in the draft.

Brad Johnson: We also need to see where he signs, how often he’ll play, and his home park

Red Foreman: Trevor Richards had a 2nd half ERA of 4.10 with a K/9 of 10.32 with a 90.8 MPH fastball. What do you make of him in 2019?

Brad Johnson: Interesting flier/streamer

Brad Johnson: I’ll have my eye on him

Brad Johnson: There’s definitely upside. Doesn’t mean he’ll get there.

Brad Johnson: And without a supporting cast, no wins

weezy: Keep 8 in a 12 team 6×6 (OBP & SLG instead of avg), choosing 2 between 3:
Story at $20
Muncy at $4
Bellinger at $10

Brad Johnson: Story and I don’t have a strong preference between the Dodgers if you like one more than the other. Safe money is on Bellinger but Muncy may be better at half the price if he plays every day.

Brad Johnson: The Dodgers being the Dodgers, I do worry Muncy will only get like 450-500 PA

Brad Johnson: He’ll still earn well over $4 though

Brad Johnson: Don’t fixate too much on future years. It’s 12-team so it’s easy to find new keepers (like Muncy!)

weezy: I’m squarely in the middle of the standings with an inherited team in Ottoneu. I’ve got about $60 in surplus with $150 in keepers, but most of that is Nimmo/Joc Pederson/Billy McKinney/Jed Lowrie types (lower value guys who are all $3). I’m taking heed of your “try to compete not reubuild” advice… .What’s your line in the sand with that?

Brad Johnson: So you have $250 to spend?

Brad Johnson: Look around the league for elite players who will probably be cut. Teams with $500+ of rostered players are a good place to start.

Brad Johnson: Then trade guys you’d prefer to cut (or fringe keepers) for them

Brad Johnson: Don’t worry about the lack of surplus

Brad Johnson: Elite talent is more important than budget management

Spotted cow: How should I value a player like brendan rodgers (in dynasty) who should hit the majors but has a young possible stud already in his spot? As a 2B or possible 3B if Arenado walks or hope he starts enough games at ss? Or look to move him if I already have 2nd covered

Brad Johnson: While good prospects getting blocked can be annoying – especially with the Rockies for some reason – my approach is to treat every premium talent as if they will play when ready

Brad Johnson: This tends to create roster value over time when you buy from frustrated owners who sell low because David Dahl or Peter Alonso can’t find the light of day

Matt W: Can I survive with Corbin being my only keeper pitcher in a h2h points? All of the top 20-25 starters are kept every season unless their price is massive, and those that aren;t kept are bid up like crazy in auction, so I would have to work a trade.

Brad Johnson: I prefer to have a loaded rotation in H2H, but yes. A hitter-first approach is workable.

Matt W: I co-sign fantrax, best service I’ve used and well worth the cost. The redesigned the mobile site in the last couple of years to work well on mobil so I stopped using the janky app

Barker: Fantrax is a progressive web app, so it can be used as “an app” (aka, an icon on your mobile desktop)

Gerrit Cole: What would a contract extension look like for me?

Brad Johnson: Zack Greinke’s deal?

Tyler White: Do you think I’ll be an above average DH this year?

Brad Johnson: I’m still worried the Astros are going to block you. Otherwise yes.

Brad Johnson: He’s pretty similar to a right-handed Muncy/Nimmo

Luhnow: How much trade value do you think Tony Kemp has?

Brad Johnson: Oh not a lot. Which is a shame because I desperately want to see him set free.

Brad Johnson: I think Luhnow could get a good, but not fully established RP for him. I’ll use Edubray Ramos as an example

Brad Johnson: Sticking with the Phillies pen since they have to trade some guys anyway, Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek would be rough fits.

Brad Johnson: You’re not going to get a prospect worth trading Kemp for

Brad Johnson: And I don’t see another position where they can benefit from dealing him

Brad Johnson: So in short, various forms of good-not-great RP

tacopocket: Hey Brad.  thanks for the chat. 5X5 12 man auction league with $300 budget.   Can you opine on which 5 you’d keep out of these guys:   wheeler@5.  story@21.   yelich @31.  verlander @32.  flaherty@11.  baez@14.  greinke @30.  rendon@23.  i think story and yelich are definites.  I tentatively had the next 3 as baez, flaherty, wheeler….but aces are expensive and it seems that the winner of the league always has a top 10 SP so verlander is tempting me.  (Sorry for the long question)

Brad Johnson: Can I just say I agree?

Brad Johnson: I think I’d set Wheeler free for Rendon or Verl

Brad Johnson: Wheeler either costs like $10 on draft day, or he’ll be burdensome to whoever gets him

Brad Johnson: Gotta keep Baez btw

Jason: Conforto a top 20 OF in points leagues?

Brad Johnson: Seems like a reasonable bet to me

Myles Straw: Do you think I’ll get enough MLB time to get value based on SB?

Brad Johnson: No

Biscuit: Follow up dynasty question.  $260 budget. Is Maikel Franco a keeper at $13? My heart says no, but the numbers say probably.

Brad Johnson: This depends if we’re talking 12-team, 20, or something in between.

Brad Johnson: Or NL Only

Brad Johnson: If it’s a 12-team, cut and run.

Brad Johnson: 20-team, sadly he’s roughly keepable

Brad Johnson: However!!!

Brad Johnson: Keep an eye on things. I outlined a plausible plan wherein the Phillies would settle for Jed Lowrie (or Moose) and leave Franco on the bench.

Brad Johnson: And if they win the bid for Machado, then Franco’s gone which could be good or bad

Brad Johnson: https://www.patreon.com/posts/23780014

LOLMets: Gausman for Andrelton Simmons in a keeper if my starting SS right now is Eduardo Escobar? Pitching is fine

Brad Johnson: Love it

Justin Verlander: How much are you worried about his age? Still consider him a top starter?

Brad Johnson: Age isn’t a problem until it is, if that makes sense

Brad Johnson: And that can happen just as easily at 26 as 36

Brad Johnson: Or almost as easily

Brad Johnson: So, yes, I’m still treating him as a top arm

Dominik: I See vlad jr going really high in some mock drafts. The projections warrant that but what is the risk he not only gets delayed the two weeks but until super 2 or even longer if the jays are bad to gain more service time?

Brad Johnson: The risk of him getting delayed to Super 2 is negligible

Brad Johnson: The 2 weeks are very likely

Brad Johnson: They waited this long so why wouldn’t they wait a little longer (barring a signed deal)

King Donko of Punchstania: Does Josh James open the season in the rotation?

Brad Johnson: Presently, it looks like a yes

Brad Johnson: It’s something to follow in spring training

Brad Johnson: I really like Framber Valdez and also…

Collin McHugh: I was an above average starter before, what do you see this year?

Brad Johnson: this guy still exists

Brad Johnson: And they’ll probably add a guy from somewhere

Brad Johnson: So it could become pretty crowded

Kyle: Would you trade Kershaw for Ohtani in a keep forever?

Brad Johnson: My gut says no, but that’s probably a very reasonable swap in both directions

Tom AND Jerry: Schwarber or Polanco in dynasty?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Schwarber. Reluctantly.

Brad Johnson: And I kind of want to be an ass and say Jorge Polanco

Brad Johnson: I know you meant Gregory.

Closers: Osuna didn’t have a great year last year, do you still consider him a top closer in baseball?

Brad Johnson: Yea, he’s top 8 for sure

KilleBrews: Steamer projects Wilmer Flores with a 113 wRC+. Are you buying this?

Brad Johnson: Depends where he lands. CitiField is a hellish on hitters

Brad Johnson: And I know wRC+ is context neutral in terms of results, but it still includes some ancillary park effects

Slurve: Is the answer to most keeper questions related to draft round or cost generally already answered if the rounds/$$ in question are far apart?

Brad Johnson: Honestly, most of these sorts of questions are unanswerable because it depends on your resources

Brad Johnson: and I don’t have that info, nor the time to digest it if you add those details

Kyle Tucker: What would your guess be on my triple slash this year? Does Brantley push me back to AAA?

Brad Johnson: I can’t see you starting the year in the majors

Cardi B: Any EXTREME-risk players other than Adalberto Mondesi you see (or have a hunch) getting drafted too early in the first, say, 7 rounds?

Brad Johnson: Not that I’m aware of, but as I noted I try not to pay attention to that info for as long as I can

Brad Johnson: It only hinders my drafts

Brad Johnson: I understand rankings and ADP are a useful shortcut for most people. It’s just not ideal for me.

Jim Leyland Palmer: What do you think Victor Robles does witha full year in 2019? Top 50 player?

Brad Johnson: It’s very possible

Brad Johnson: hits for average, decent patience, runs, some power

Brad Johnson: That adds up to a fantasy star

Brad Johnson: But… rookies often struggle to adjust. Build some redundancy if you’re counting on him for SB

Brad Johnson: As in draft him, then pretend he’ll only supply 10 SB

Jose Altuve: Do you think Bregman or me has the better year overall?

Brad Johnson: I’ll bet on Altuve

Brad Johnson: It’s a good question.

Brad Johnson:

Brad Johnson: Been awhile since I made a poll on here 🙂

Frank: Ian Happ in NL only…buy/sell/hold this off season?

Brad Johnson: I’d probably hold unless somebody is really coming at you

Brad Johnson: If you so much as say he’s available (as I suspect you probably have) your rivals will smell blood and only offer scraps

Frank: Luis Castillo or Robbie Ray for 2019?

Brad Johnson: I’ll take Ray. This is another good one though.

Brad Johnson:

PuigSmash: Does Puig go 30/15/.270 in GAB this year?

Brad Johnson: Puig is not afflicted with “just enough” home runs

Brad Johnson: So GABP will help, but I wouldn’t expect anything crazy just because of the park change

Brad Johnson: That said, he’s a massively volatile player who could easily range from 15 to 45 HR

Benji: With similar costs, who would you rather have in a keep forever league: Bauer or Realmuto?

Brad Johnson: I think Realmuto

Brad Johnson: Lock in the top catcher rather than a SP with a recent injury

Nicholas: Is it wrong to keep 4-6 prospects in Ottoneu? I am competing, and my line of thinking is that these prospects will have trade value in the middle of the year. These cheap prospects might be a better use of roster space than a a middling veteran.

Brad Johnson: No, it’s a very reasonable strategy

Brad Johnson: Doing it depends on access to the right players

Brad Johnson: But if you have that access, they can definitely fuel a victory. I came 2nd in FG Staff 2 this year after 3 straight wins because my rival used all his trade bullets and I opted to keep my only ones (Soto and Torres)

Brad Johnson: My rival basically bought an entirely new roster and will now have to cut most of it

Trader Danny: Got offered McCutchen for Josh James and Laureano in a dynasty league…worth it?

Brad Johnson: I really like Laureano…

Brad Johnson: If this is a shallow dynasty (i.e. 12 team) then it could work. Any deeper and I’d pass

Bob Villar: Over/Under 500 PA’s for Aaron Hicks this year?

Brad Johnson: I’ll guess over

Brad Johnson: You never know with the Yankees

Gio Gonzalez: With the Astros need for solid IP, do you think I’m a good fit for them?

Brad Johnson: Probably not the guy I’d look at

Keeperlicious: Kershaw or Walker Buehler in a keep forever?

Brad Johnson: Ugh

Brad Johnson: Buehler

Brad Johnson: The years…

Trent: Haniger or Rosario is 6×6 (OPS) roto?

Brad Johnson: I always think Amed before Eddie

Brad Johnson:

Brad Johnson: I think I’d go Haniger, but it’s very close

Biscuit: RE: Franco – 16 team, dynasty, both leagues

Brad Johnson: Close to par value then. Maybe a little below. I’d sure try hard to upgrade before the Phillies do something to destroy his value.

Brad Johnson: Probably time to start winding down. A few more.

TJ: Who is the breakout pitcher from last year you think wont be even close to as successful?

Brad Johnson: Lemme pull a list

Brad Johnson: Good bets ranked 13 to 17 on the WAR list: Clevinger, Mikolas, Freeland, Wheeler, and Folty

Brad Johnson: Clev: command is minus to average. If it steps back, he balloons to a 4.00 ERA

Brad Johnson: Mikolas: Command/control profiles can be volatile if it slips from 70-grade to 60-grade

Brad Johnson: See Hendricks and Jason Vargas

Brad Johnson: Ditto Freeland

Brad Johnson: Wheeler’s always hurt

Brad Johnson: Folty is kind of like Clevinger. Command is maybe a little better, but I like Clev’s fastball a lot more.

Uhhhh… : Wait a minute, are you suggesting that astudillo will not return first round value this year?

Brad Johnson: Alas

Frank: Love Taillon to take next step this year. Agree?

Brad Johnson: He took it last year

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he has another step in him

Frank: Marte or Rizzo this year? Who ya got? Little worried about Rizzo’s back. Seems to pop up more last year or two…but also worried Marte SB will decline.

Brad Johnson: Same concerns. I’m picking Rizzo first

Brad Johnson: Marte is a hard avoid unless I really screw the pooch on early steals

Brad Johnson: Also, I noticed Marte really dropped in a couple mocks and dynasty drafts I’ve done. Those aren’t normal settings though

TJ: Chances K Davis hits .247?

Brad Johnson: 100%

Biscuit: Thinking is we can move Margot for Anderson to avoid having to draft from a very shallow 3B pool

Brad Johnson: The overall 3B pool is very deep. Can’t speak to your league specifically. But I think that’s a fine trade.

Steve: 12-team, 10 keeper max. Basically everyone thinks they have 10 keepers plus one or two extras, so we’re all trying to condense in the offseason with 2-for-1s and player-for-pick deals. Is there a clever way of zagging while others zig here?

Brad Johnson: My latest attempt to zig/zag attempt is to not worry about having too many keepers and taking any trade that helps. Granted, I’m dealing with deeper scenarios like a keep 28 where some teams want MLBers and others want 15-year-old children

Brad Johnson: The “correct” approach is still to aggregate

Brad Johnson: It’s just hard to find those trades

Jason: Weird format question…  Draft any player that has not exceeded rookie elig and you can keep them until they’re 30.  Everyone else can be kept for 5 years.   So at pick # 1 overall you could take Trout and have him for 5 or take Vlad Jr and keep him for twice as long.   How high up do you bump someone like Vladito?

Brad Johnson: Vladito is either pick #1 or 2. Maybe Mookie and Lindor are in the mix over Vlad. Just depends on where you’re aiming

Brad Johnson: Personally, I’d probably bank Trout and cry about it 5 years from now

Matt W: Better keeper, market rate Merrifield or discounted Eugenio Suarez?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Suarez unless you’re desperate for steals. I consider Merrifield to have a brittle profile. The line between him being a fantasy gem and a flop is thinner than most realize.

Brad Johnson: And on that note, I’m calling it a day. Thanks for playing!