Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/29/2019
by Brad Johnson
January 29, 2019
We chatted about keeper choices and keeper decisions and keeper strategies. And keepers. Ottoneu keepers too. Read about ’em in the transcript.
| 4:00 |
: Hello all. We’ll get started in a few moments.
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| 4:01 |
: When will your dynasty ADP come out?
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| 4:01 |
: I’m hoping to get a few more to add soon. Right now it’s basically just two leagues in the sample.
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| 4:01 |
: So, I’m in a bit of a holding pattern. Might find time to whip a first run together over the weekend.
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| 4:02 |
: Hello sir, 20 team dynasty 17th (last) spot goes too… F Peralta, M Boyd, W Calhoun, or L Voit? Trade Bait + Value next year
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| 4:03 |
: I’m voting Voit. You’ll get your answer fairly quickly. Peralta and Calhoun could take years to actualize – if ever
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| 4:04 |
: Voit could turn out to be a monster. And he has a top 200 ADP unlike the others listed here.
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| 4:04 |
: Please rank in value for the next 5 years….Odor, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada.
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| 4:04 |
: I think Anderson is running out of time as an unimpeded regular
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| 4:05 |
: I’d vote Odor – Moncada then a big gulf to Anderson
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| 4:05 |
: As for 2019 alone, I prefer Anderson to Moncada. In case anyone was wondering
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| 4:06 |
: hey brad. you helped me last week with a trade but the guy countered so i wanted to get your opinion. 5X5 12 man auction league ($300). i offered $31 yelich for $5 mondesi and $10 hoskins. He countered with mondesi and $8 suarez. Do i take that or hold out for hoskins?
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| 4:07 |
: I think that’s a comparable valuation. Hoskins=Suarez passes a smell test. It kind of depends on what you need though. Holding Yelich is a perfectly fine consolation.
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| 4:07 |
: In FG Pts, $8 Aguilar and $3 O’Hearn both good keepable prices as a 1B platoon?
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| 4:07 |
: Yes, I like it.
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| 4:08 |
: In Ottoneu Points, do you keep in mind balance for your roster at all? Would you be comfortable spending 75-80% on either hitting?
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| 4:08 |
: It depends on the state of my roster really
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| 4:08 |
: If you inherit a dumpster fire, just load up on elite talent based on available opportunities
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| 4:09 |
: That could easily push you in an all hitter direction
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| 4:10 |
: I think I said this last week, I’ve won with $250+ spent on pitching. I’ve won with ~$70 spent on pitching. There are ways to make a wide variety of deployments work.
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| 4:10 |
: Winning is always partially about the luck of the draw.
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| 4:10 |
: One more question Ottoneu FG points. I’ve got a need for 2b, and there isn’t much on the free agent market. Should I trade my $52 Mookie straight up for a $42 Jose Ramirez? Or should I try to get another player as well..?
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| 4:10 |
: Doesn’t hurt to ask for a little more juice. I also wouldn’t worry about 2B. There are so many players in the 4.5 pts/g and up bucket. Some of them will be free.
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| 4:11 |
: In recent seasons, I’ve found I naturally accrue 2B through no special effort of my own
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| 4:11 |
: So I’ll trade ’em away as often as possible.
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| 4:12 |
: Please help me choose my 2nd round pick in a 15 team straight draft. It’s down to Freeman, Stanton, Goldy, Benentendi, and Charlie
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| 4:12 |
: Goldy or Freeman
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| 4:12 |
: I like Goldy more personally, but they’re basically even by the projections
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| 4:13 |
: How would you adjust your auction calculator values for a start up dynasty where, after the draft, players become keepable forever at no cost? I’m thinking I’ll build for years 2-3 on at the expense of the first year. I’m trying to not let my personal biases dictate my values. Ideas? Thanks in advance!
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| 4:13 |
: That does seem to be approach
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| 4:13 |
: You’re going to find two popular approaches if your opponents have half a brain between them.
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| 4:14 |
: 1. Spend an assload on a few premium players then settle for a bunch of scraps
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| 4:14 |
: 2. Spend all budget on the top 50 or so hitting prospects
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| 4:15 |
: These are undoubtedly the “best” strategies, but if they’re too popular it could become hard to compete
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| 4:15 |
: A hidden third strategy is to acquire older veterans at way under-value contracts. This only works if nearly all teams commit to plans 1 and 2.
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| 4:16 |
: If you want to dead set on one strategy, Plan 2 is perhaps most likely to be viable. Personally, I think you have to be mindful of all your options and decide on a path after the first round of nominations
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| 4:17 |
: If you pay attention, you should have a good idea of who is attempting which strategy.
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| 4:17 |
: If you opt for the third strategy, make sure you nominate the Daniel Murphys and Matt Carpenters ASAP before people realize they’re sitting on too much budget
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| 4:18 |
: Ottoneu 5×5 – thinking Blackmon 48$ , what is your opinion?
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| 4:18 |
: In a vacuum, overpriced but keepable. I differ from others in that my first priority is keeping as many elite players as possible, even if some of the individual values are bad.
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| 4:18 |
: I always assume there are zero elite players available to me in the draft
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| 4:19 |
: This also usually turns out to be mostly true.
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| 4:19 |
: Occasionally I’ll miss a value
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| 4:19 |
: Getting back to Blackmon, keep him if he’s not preventing you from hanging on to better players.
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| 4:20 |
: I’d prefer an $80 Trout to $48 Blackmon for example.
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| 4:20 |
: Would you keep a $10 Didi in Otto Points despite his injury?
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| 4:20 |
: See the last response – it’s a matter of managing opportunity cost
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| 4:21 |
: SS is an easy position to fill with $10 of budget and Didi only has one month of better-than-bland production
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| 4:21 |
: If you have a ton of spare budget space, you might as well use it.
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| 4:21 |
: ever played in a league where in addition to the normal player pool, you’ve had say 5-10 historically great player seasons available at auction as well? It is a format I’ve wanted to play around with, but is kind of radical so hard to get 10-12 people on board. But it would be interesting to me to see how much of a regular $260 budget someone would pay, not just for the great stats, but the certainty of those stats. Like, Ty Cobb’s 1911 where he hit .420/8/147/127/83. Or Ruth’s 1921 with .378/59/177/171/17. Objectively, probably worth $70+ at auction, but will make it interesting to fill out the rest of your roster.
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| 4:22 |
: I’ve seen this post before… 🙂
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| 4:22 |
: I’d pay $200 to get Ruth and Cobb.
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| 4:23 |
: For a 10 or 12 team league, I’m confident I can make the rest work off waivers
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| 4:23 |
: Keeping Vladito and KB with only 3B and 2 Util spots, so can effectively only play 3 3B at any time. Do you downgrade other 3b during the draft due to lineup inflexibility, or just draft best available and figure it out later
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| 4:23 |
: I probably downgrade after the third one
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| 4:24 |
: The population of 3B is large so you can’t create scarcity by rostering too many
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| 4:24 |
: what do you think of kyle freeland in FGpts? I know that last year was a huge step forward, but is he worth betting on going forward? I have him at $8 and a strong staff, so feel like he is a worthwhile gamble where I could cut quickly if he starts slow.
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| 4:25 |
: I think around $5-$10 is where I’d draw the line. I had a $3 share and gladly included it in part of a swap for $51 Max Scherezer (yesterday)
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| 4:25 |
: $60 kershaw keepable in 5×5 otto? Assume most premium pitching is kept… also keeping cheap Corbin
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| 4:25 |
: Kershaw’s only keepable if you’re sitting on a lot of spare payroll. Even then, you may want to try redrafting him
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| 4:25 |
: Keep or cut a $3 Jace Fry in Ottoneu 5×5?
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| 4:25 |
: Cut for me.
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| 4:25 |
: $1 reliever bucket
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| 4:26 |
: Ohtani is just DH’ing this year right? They’ve ruled out he pitches entirely?
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| 4:26 |
: Correct
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| 4:26 |
: He’s a very good hitter though.
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| 4:26 |
: Is Ty Blach the type that’s worth a $3 flier or just cut and try to buy back for $1?
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| 4:26 |
: I’m not sure he’s a $1 player tbh
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| 4:26 |
: More like a watchlist guy
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| 4:26 |
: Does it still hold true in general to target NL SP over AL SP for fantasy b/c offense is more explosive with the DH? Have there been any recent studies to bear this out.
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| 4:26 |
: All else equal, sure. But all else is never equal
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| 4:27 |
: It’s usually already baked into our perceptions of the player
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| 4:27 |
: And pitchers on certain AL teams i.e. the Indians get a huge boost from being in that particular segment of the AL.
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| 4:27 |
: Brad, where are you ranking Victor Robles among the OF ranks?
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| 4:28 |
: Very high.
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| 4:28 |
: I don’t have specific OF rankings, but I did rank him 8th among CFers yesterday.
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| 4:29 |
: And I think that would put him around top 20 OFers.
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| 4:29 |
: Despite scouts always whining about corner outfielders needing more bat, there’s only like 6 corner OF bats I’d put ahead of the top 8 CF
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| 4:30 |
: Victor Robles FGpts vs 5×5. Know he’s significantly more attractive in 5×5 bc of the speed, but how does his offense profile in FGp?
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| 4:30 |
: Still a strong profile in FGpts. Should be easy 5 pts/g with tons of brand value baked in
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| 4:31 |
: I usually try to get 5 pts/g for $1, but if you can also trade the guy later for a trio of $50 studs, I’ll pay a lot more.
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| 4:31 |
: How much do you think Ohtani is worth in FGPts as a hitter alone this year?
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| 4:31 |
: This is just me spitballing – I’d say $20 as a floor.
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| 4:32 |
: You can keep those $35 shares pretty comfortably
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| 4:32 |
: Robles a star in points leagues too? Him at 5 or Conforto at 14?
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| 4:32 |
: Oh boy, I like the value on Conforto there. Especially if it’s a shallow daily moves league where you can avoid LHP.
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| 4:33 |
: FGPts – was offered $18 Khris Davis for $6 Pham- would you accept?
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| 4:33 |
: I prefer Pham
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| 4:33 |
: Straight up, not even considering cost
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| 4:33 |
: One of these years, we’re going to look at Khrush and wonder how he was ever a MLB player. He’s so max effort. Any loss of talent is going to be… uh… crushing.
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| 4:34 |
: Chances that Rhys Hoskins enters the Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rizzo Elite 1B club this year? His numbers last 4 months really took a jump…
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| 4:34 |
: Pretty low imo
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| 4:34 |
: 15%? 20%?
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| 4:34 |
: Those are blind guesses.
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| 4:34 |
: Not ruling it out, but I think he is what he is
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| 4:34 |
: In a vacuum: Stanton or carrasco
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| 4:34 |
: EZ Stanton
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| 4:34 |
: Wilmer Flores has been freed! Now what? Stud or dud?
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| 4:34 |
: BLAH
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| 4:34 |
: Ottoneu 5×5 – $35 S. Marte for $8 Pham/$6 Mikolas. Which side do you prefer?
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| 4:35 |
: Pham
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| 4:35 |
: This time it’s the money that’s tie breaking it
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| 4:35 |
: I think that’s a fair swap with balanced contracts
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| 4:35 |
: Why are people hyping up Robles without knowing where Bryce signs? If Bryce goes back to the Nats, is Eaton or Robles going to the bench?
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| 4:36 |
: I think one of the OFers plays 1B until Eaton hits the DL
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| 4:36 |
: Or whoever, it just always seems to be Eaton
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| 4:36 |
: Harper seems the obvious choice to me. Could be Soto.
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| 4:37 |
: Is Ohtani really going to be $20 floor hitter? I think he’ll get more ABs, but is he going to be a value add against RHP?
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| 4:37 |
: I think so. He was 5.25 pts/g last year, and I’m not convinced he’s futile versus LHP
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| 4:38 |
: At the very least, he’s Bryce Harper vs RHP – right down to the mechanics
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| 4:38 |
: More ottoneu specific content please! Love this
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| 4:38 |
: Was offered @ even money in 12-team, 5-keeper auction league; Thor for Seager straight-up…I own Seager, thoughts?
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| 4:39 |
: Seager isn’t a top 5 round guy in 12-team 5×5
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| 4:39 |
: Thor is.
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| 4:39 |
: Personally, I think they’re similar values because I tend to be the low man on Thor
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| 4:39 |
: But by ADP, you should take this
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| 4:39 |
: Then maybe swap Thor for something better than Seager 🙂
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| 4:39 |
: It’s too early to be holding on to a $7 Madrigal in 4×4 right?
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| 4:40 |
: I think so.
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| 4:40 |
: If Madrigal brings you joy, go ahead and hold a share. Just know you’re making a minus EV move
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| 4:40 |
: Steamer is seeing a pretty significant step forward for Kepler. Fangraphs auction calc has him as a $18 FGpts player. You buying that at all?
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| 4:40 |
: Oh no
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| 4:40 |
: Not at all
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| 4:41 |
: He’s a $1 player who you could go up to maybe $5 on if you want to manage his matchups carefully
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| 4:41 |
: There’s breakout potential, but there’s also a lot of weirdness in the profile
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| 4:42 |
: Would you rather Jacob DeGrom or Stanton if it meant that you could focus your draft on hitting
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| 4:42 |
: Probably DeGrom?
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| 4:42 |
: Depends on context
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| 4:42 |
: I’m really in on buying Stanton shares this year
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| 4:42 |
: Actually, I say that
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| 4:42 |
: I haven’t actually succeeded in acquiring any Stantons yet
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| 4:43 |
: I’ve tried
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| 4:43 |
: $38 Seager or $25 Ohtani Fgpts?
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| 4:43 |
: For 2019, push. For lifetime, Ohtani.
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| 4:43 |
: Roughly translating Ohtani questions to auction format. 12-team keeper league, $260 (27 players), keep 5. What’s Ohtani worth this year if he’s up for auction and is hitter+pitcher eligible for future?
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| 4:43 |
: **meant roto format, not auction format re: Ohtani
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| 4:44 |
: I’d be comfortable going up to $19. After that, it becomes situational
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| 4:44 |
: What $ cap would you have for Trout this year in FG Points?
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| 4:44 |
: Again, that’s very situational.
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| 4:45 |
: Ideally, you’re paying in the $60s for him. He should be kept at anything under $150.
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| 4:45 |
: Not necessarily by you.
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| 4:45 |
: But a rebuilding team should be happy to trade like a $3 Nick Pivetta for $150 Trout. That’s 3 big rebuilding pieces post-draft.
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| 4:46 |
: People overestimate the ease of buying rebuilding pieces via the draft.
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| 4:46 |
: It can only be done reliably for $1 or $2 and that’s no way to rebuild
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| 4:46 |
: You need to gather premium expensive assets and convert them into premium cheap assets
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| 4:47 |
: And this must all be done in one season or else the arbitration process will ruin everything.
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| 4:47 |
: You have to be able to hide your $3 Juan Soto so he only gets bid up $3.
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| 4:48 |
: Keep forever, OBP League. Need to select 2/3 from Corey Seager, Merrifield and Mo Swipes Adalberto Mondesi. What to do?
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| 4:48 |
: This is difficult because Mondesi is an OBP killer
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| 4:48 |
: But could still outperform the other pair
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| 4:49 |
: Can you trade? If so, deal Merrifield. He value is peaked.
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| 4:49 |
: I’m tempted to say the keeps are Seager and Mondesi because of the keep forever component
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| 4:49 |
: They’re both very young
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| 4:49 |
: Back to the Kepler question, if you owned him on the cheap right now are you still tossing him back and trying to redraft for $1?
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| 4:49 |
: Not necessarily
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| 4:49 |
: depends on the state of my budget
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| 4:49 |
: How often do you flip a recently acquired player from a trade into something more “valuable” than your initial traded player?
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| 4:50 |
: I don’t want to brag and say I do it all the time… but I generally trade for the purposes of trading again.
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| 4:51 |
: It’s unusual for me to have needs so I’m usually just speculating and diversifying
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| 4:51 |
: And that helps me not have needs in the future
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| 4:51 |
: Diversification: It’s not just for Wall Street nerds
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| 4:51 |
: Rank ’em thru 2022 as dynasty bats in an OPS league: Bellinger, Robles, Judge, Eloy, Benintendi
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| 4:52 |
: That is a tough list. Spitballing… Judge, Robles, Benintendi, Bellinger, Eloy
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| 4:52 |
: With the exception of Eloy who’s a bit of an unknown quantity, those guys are all very close
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| 4:52 |
: And Eloy hype probably has him in that range without a single MLB PA
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| 4:52 |
: Do you think Tallion will be a top 15 Arm next season?
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| 4:52 |
: Fringe-yes
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| 4:53 |
: What’s the right approach to thinking of keeper values: overall ADP or Positional Rank? For example, in a 10-man Keep 5 forever league, would you rather have Bauer (whose likely a consensus top 50 pick, but a questionable top 10 overall SP) or Realmuto (Well outside of the top 50 ADP, but the #1 C)? Thanks
|
| 4:53 |
: Usually ADP
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| 4:53 |
: Realmuto is something of an exception
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| 4:53 |
: Perhaps the only exception.
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| 4:53 |
: I’d also devalue closers such that they’re never keepers in that format
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| 4:54 |
: So if you own Edwin Diaz, he’s not a keeper
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| 4:54 |
: (Unless your roster is ass)
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| 4:54 |
: Hey Brad, 14 team H2H with OBP and QS, can only keep 5 of the following keeper round in parenthesis. Who do I keep and who do I try and trade? Stanton (1), Story (3), Severino (7), Edwin Diaz (9), Corbin (10), Aaron Hicks (10), Luke Voit (10), Matt Chapman (13), Mikolas (14), Peraza (15). Thanks!
|
| 4:54 |
: Oh look, a Diaz sighting (hint, not him)
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| 4:55 |
: So Stanton kind of depends on what would be available to you in the 1st round
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| 4:55 |
: It could be anything! It could even be Stanton!
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| 4:55 |
: Story, Sevvy, Corbin are easy keeps
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| 4:56 |
: So that gives you 2 spots for Chapman, Hicks, Stanton, and Diaz (yes, I’m throwing him back because the league depth is a little deeper)
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| 4:56 |
: I would do one of Chapman/Hicks and one of Stanton/Diaz.
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| 4:56 |
: 5×5 Ottoneu. Limited funds headed to auction, probably can sign 1 – $10-15 guy. Which current starter is weakest link and should be targeted for upgrade- C D. Jansen, OF R. Laureano, MI A. Rosario?
|
| 4:57 |
: I’d grab another MI. Or better yet, just take $1 backups and reserve that money for in-season moves
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| 4:57 |
: Are you in on Wacha at $8 in H2H FG Points?
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| 4:57 |
: No.
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| 4:57 |
: You mentioned keeping as much value as possible going in to the draft. Do you have a specific dollar amount you like to go in to the draft with and an amount you like to hold back for in season auctions?
|
| 4:58 |
: Not really
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| 4:58 |
: Ideally, I’d like $15 to $20, but I often go in with $2.
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| 4:58 |
: That Max Scherezer trade I referenced leaves me with $19 to spend on $17 player. So I’ll have $2 to spend again.
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| 4:58 |
: I have some tricks for surviving that.
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| 4:59 |
: Calling it now. Jose Castillo is going to be the next great Padres closer. By end of season he’ll 75% owned. 14% SwStr rate. No question, just a statement
|
| 4:59 |
: I’m picking Diego Castillo instead. To close for the Padres. Yes.
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| 4:59 |
: 11 roster spots $19 dollars available in FGpts. Dont need any SP only 1 RP. Strong offensive core. Need a starting util and catcher. Situation is doable, right?
|
| 4:59 |
: Yes. Standard for me
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| 4:59 |
: Appreciate the response. Given that format who would you rather keep: Bauer or Realmuto?
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| 5:00 |
: If I had to choose right now, probably Bauer.
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| 5:00 |
: I’m not certain I’d feel that way if I had time to digest the situation more thoroughly.
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| 5:00 |
: Thanks for the advice Brad. I can trade Whit, so I might explore that option.
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| 5:00 |
: Go for it. Maybe try Seager and Whit for a SS upgrade?
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| 5:00 |
: FG Pts. Keep $15 Schwarber? Money not an issue, I have plenty of cap space
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| 5:00 |
: Sure. He’s weird and confusing and still has name value
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| 5:01 |
: John,
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| 5:01 |
: This is off to a good start
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| 5:01 |
: Brad,
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| 5:01 |
: We’re getting there 🙂
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| 5:01 |
: Higher ceiling: Luis Castillo or Jose Berrios?
|
| 5:01 |
: Castillo imo
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| 5:02 |
: They’re both pretty ceilingful
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| 5:02 |
: In a 22-team auction league where the top 30 SP are owned, does keeping a really expensive Kershaw (say, 20% of budget) make more sense? Or still no?
|
| 5:02 |
: Without more info, I can see that working
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| 5:02 |
: Can’t promise it’s the right move. As always, it depends.
|
| 5:02 |
: But it’s not automatically insane
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| 5:03 |
: Any deep setting where elite talent is scarce, the overarching rule is to maximize that elite talent, even if the money is spent inefficiently
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| 5:04 |
: But if you’re in that situation, it means your roster is either very weak or super efficiently priced.
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| 5:04 |
: If the former, you must sell. If the latter, still consider selling.
|
| 5:04 |
: Post-draft
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| 5:04 |
: Looking forward to your Mound Musings articles.
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| 5:05 |
: You have mistaken me for the other Brad Johnson. However, I will muse about mounds if you so desire.
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| 5:05 |
: And yes, there is another Brad Johnson in Fantasy sports. He writes for Rotowire.
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| 5:06 |
: I grew up playing baseball a year behind another Brad Johnson. He was better than me until he blew out his elbow in junior year.
|
| 5:06 |
: I have not won a Superbowl, but I have won numerous superballs.
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| 5:06 |
: FG Pts; Kirby Yates or Matt Barnes?
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| 5:07 |
: I think Yates because the SVs bonus is sometimes underappreciated
|
| 5:07 |
: not only are saves an extra point, they’re also more plentiful than holds
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| 5:07 |
: However, Yates does scare me with his history of homeritis
|
| 5:07 |
: He seemed cured for part of last season then re-contracted it
|
| 5:07 |
: Brad, why is nobody talking about Tyler White? After lighting AAA (yes, its the PCL) on fire, he posts an .888 OPS with the Stro’s in a little less than half a season. Digging deeper we find a .307 BAIP and a 7.1% swinging strike rate (tasteful). He’s 28 but he’s currently slotted in at full time 1B/DH duty in THAT line-up. I’m calling .280-25-90
|
| 5:08 |
: I’m keeping him for $10 in FGpts. On that roster where I already have no budget left.
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| 5:08 |
: Guy is a monster, and I’m trusting the Astros to find him the reps
|
| 5:08 |
: So Sorry
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| 5:08 |
: How valuable is a $27 Nola in NL only roto dynasty league with $270 cap?
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| 5:08 |
: Thank you for the information
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| 5:09 |
: Not at all a problem Robert, feel free to hang out and get to know a second Brad Johnson
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| 5:09 |
: As for Nola – very valuable.
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| 5:09 |
: What would you move Snell for in a Dynasty league?
|
| 5:09 |
: Judge?
|
| 5:09 |
: Some kind of elite hitter
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| 5:09 |
: USE THE HYPE MAN
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| 5:10 |
: Are $21 adam eaton and/or $17 souza keepable in an NL only roto dynasty, or are they throw back you can probably get them again at the same price? 5 outfielders, 2 utility
|
| 5:10 |
: I think you can throw em. Especially Souza
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| 5:10 |
: Thoughts on Josh Naylor? He held up very well as a 20 year old in double A. Think he becomes a player?
|
| 5:10 |
: I do. Huge power that hasn’t played as HR yet
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| 5:10 |
: But it will
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| 5:10 |
: Vogelbach ever going to play?
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| 5:10 |
: I hope so, he’s so fun
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| 5:10 |
: Time to wrap it up
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| 5:11 |
: would you be for keeping a $50 altuve, yelich, and goldy all on one squad with a lot of other cheap talent on it already? ottoneu FGpts
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| 5:11 |
: Yes
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| 5:11 |
: Without a doubt
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| 5:11 |
: Thoughts on Winker this year? Keep at $5 or move for more premium talent?
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| 5:11 |
: Keep without knowing more info
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| 5:11 |
: This is lazy, but Joey Votto is the ceiling
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| 5:11 |
: 5×5 Ottoneu: Keeping $7 Asdrubel Cabrera?
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| 5:11 |
: No
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| 5:11 |
: Hard no.
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| 5:11 |
: Do you downgrade Charlie Morton in a QS league significantly?
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| 5:12 |
: Some. A couple bucks
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| 5:12 |
: Have lots of salary space, am looking for a premium bat in the $40 range for Winker
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| 5:12 |
: Seems reasonable
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| 5:12 |
: Thanks for the answer…so basically you’d move snell for young power guys like judge, story, bellinger etc
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| 5:12 |
: Yes, I’d look to convert the uncertainty of pitchers into the relative certain of a young hitter
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| 5:12 |
: What if i thought altuve would be available for less than $50 at draft?
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| 5:13 |
: It’s up to you to make that decision
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| 5:13 |
: I’d feel better about it if you’re going to draft before spring games begin
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| 5:13 |
: As soon as people realize that his knee is fully healthy… he’s gonna spike
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| 5:13 |
: Royce Lewis up this year?!
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| 5:13 |
: It’s possible. Depends on the Twins performance and need.
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| 5:14 |
: If they’re not contending, he’s out until early 2020
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| 5:14 |
: Can you expand a little bit on your comment about speculating and diversifying in regards to trades/in-season pick-ups? What does that look like while the season is on going?
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| 5:14 |
: That’s a better topic for a full article
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| 5:14 |
: One I’m sure I’ve written a few times 🙂
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| 5:15 |
: I feel like most of what I write is instantly lost to THE ARCHIVES
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| 5:15 |
: never to be seen again
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| 5:15 |
: More likely to get close to 2018 stats: yelich or story?
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| 5:15 |
: I’ll say Yelich
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| 5:15 |
: Mostly because Story had that late season injury scare
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| 5:15 |
: so it’s possible he’s less likely to make it through the season
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| 5:16 |
: Any interest in Michael Pineda?
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| 5:16 |
: Not as more than a curiosity
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| 5:16 |
: I’ve always thought he was a miscast reliever
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| 5:16 |
: If he was coming through the minors now with his pre-injury stuff, he would have never made it out of Double-A as a SP
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| 5:16 |
: (I say that, but that’s all very team dependent)
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| 5:16 |
: If you were loaded up on studs, how would you feel about going into a draft with 20/40 spots filled and only $90 remaining salary?
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| 5:17 |
: I’d feel like I need to trade for another star
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| 5:17 |
: Gather up whatever scraps are left and offer them all for like $48 Joey Votto
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| 5:17 |
: That’s how I’d feel anyway
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| 5:17 |
: You did ask about my feelings
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| 5:17 |
: Favorite ottoneu format?
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| 5:17 |
: FGpts
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| 5:18 |
: And on that note, this ottoneu-heavy chat is OVER
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| 5:18 |
: We somehow didn’t talk about Nick Pivetta for 10 minutes
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| 5:18 |
: How do you feel about Nick Pivetta this season?
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| 5:18 |
: No! It’s over.
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| 5:18 |
: I mentioned last week that I have been looking into stats when you curate or manage start your pitchers against roughly the bottom 20 offenses and found some interesting results. There is some noise with actually results but the xfip and K-rates with a handful of interesting characters. Nick Pivetta has an absurd 2.7 fip and 11k9. Sonny Gray, Luke Weaver, Kyle Gibson and Marco Gonzales all provide a very very nice boost in value if you manage there start providing potential 3 something eras. Disco Tony is an other oddity I found, 3.2 xfip and 10k9 but produced an actual 5 era. All these arm could produce amazing value late in drafts depending on your build.
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