Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/21/2020

Brad Johnson: Let’s kick off the action in a few minutes.

Brad Johnson: I was hoping to finish editing my podcast so I could plug it today, but there are still a couple 30 second post-production things I need to record.

Brad Johnson: Nevertheless, I’m undaunted. The podcast is called Juiced Balls. I’m billing it as “the only baseball fantasy podcast.” Episode 1 featuring NotBurtReynolds will be available sometime tomorrow morning through all the major vendors. Apple, Spotify, wherever else Anchor distributes.

Brad Johnson: You can also access it directly via my Patreon. That’s Patreon.com/BaseballATeam. And I’ll be tweeting out a link periodically.

Jordan: I only have 5 keeper slots. Which one doesn’t make the cut?

Brad Johnson:

The age-old question.

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure why that response is in a fancy box

Your own personal troll: Someone to read your posts, someone who boasts.  Reach out, slap face.

Jordan: I only have 5 keeper slots…which one doesn’t make the cut? Can keep for as many seasons as I want. deGrom (4th round), Story (4th), Springer (10th), Blackmon (12th), Judge (18th), Severino (18th).

Brad Johnson: Hiya Jordan

Brad Johnson: I think it’s Springer or Blackmon

Brad Johnson: They’re great values. Blackmon is starting to drift towards the back end of his career.

Brad Johnson: A case could be made for Sevy given his recent history, but you’ll feel really bad if he full rebounds.

Brad Johnson: Let’s also remember, Springer was pretty ho-hum in 2018. 22 HR, .265 AVG, 173 R+RBI and 6 SB

Brad Johnson: Strong but not amazing

Brad Johnson: I think we should be viewing 2019 as a ceiling

Dan: 16 team dynasty h2h 6×6. Bryant for Berrios? Is that enough for Bryant or should i ask for another piece?

Brad Johnson: I’d ask more. I’m partial to hitters

Rotorotoroto: How do you approach standard 5×5 H2H leagues (12 team). Do you hammer elite SP early?

Brad Johnson: Yes. The H2H wrinkle really changes the way I approach fantasy.

Brad Johnson: Especially in 12-team or shallower, I want to dominate the pitching categories with elite arm then trust myself to find sufficiently big bats over time

Brad Johnson: Ages ago, it was easier to find a breakout arm than a breakout bat. Now the reverse is true.

Guest: FG Pts League: Traded my $29 Jo-Ram and $3 Swanson for his $4 Kingery and $3 Biggio.  How’d I do?

Brad Johnson: Jury is going to be out for a year or two I think.

Brad Johnson: I like it in general, it’s a high risk, high reward trade.

Brad Johnson: Swanson isn’t anything in FGpts. He’s a $1 volume guy.

Brad Johnson: Biggio is a mystery to everyone. I think the range is $1 to $25 in the format.

Brad Johnson: Kingery’s got nice eligibilities.

Brad Johnson: Ramirez is the real lynchpin. Is he a $25-$30 guy or a $50 guy. I don’t think anybody has that answer.

Logan: The compilation of projections for foreign players looks like a great resource, but do you think Akiyama has more SB potential than the projections let on if he bats leadoff for the Reds?

Brad Johnson: The Reds do have a history of running a little more than the average club. Admittedly, I don’t have any other special insights into Akiyama.

hey: on a scale from 1 (not) to 10 (very) – how concerned are you about senzel’s shoulder in 2020?

Brad Johnson: Somewhere in the 4-6 range

Brad Johnson: It’s an injury which can linger or take more than a year to fully heal. Or sometimes rehab goes perfectly.

Brad Johnson: We’ll start to get a better idea in the spring

Michael G Scott: Who would you keep, Machado or Judge in a 10 team keep forever points league?

Brad Johnson: Tricky. I want Judge’s power.

Ian: Is Oscar Mercado being overlooked? Potential 20HR/30SB guy?

Brad Johnson: If you’re wearing the most rose-colored glasses, sure.

Brad Johnson: For me, that’s probably a little north of a 100th percentile outcome

Brad Johnson: Which is to say he’d need to perform a little over 3 standard deviations better than I expect to get there.

Brad Johnson: It’s *possible* he’s a Tim Anderson sort whose fantasy value really plays up.

Allen: Better year (OBP league): David Peralta or Bryan Reynolds?

Brad Johnson: I want Reynolds. Projection is probably similar, but I see some ways Reynolds can grow. Gonna be hard for Peralta to escape the gravity of time and injuries.

thugnasty: How do you feel about the ATC projections? Which projections do you primarily use?

Brad Johnson: I don’t have a go-to set of projections – I usually either aggregate them or use the one I perceive to be least popular.

Brad Johnson: And I do some individual projections of my own

Brad Johnson: They’re not tied into a complete system like the official ones we publish

Brad Johnson: It would be embarrassing if I released them 🙂
Marked for internal use only.

Allen: Better year (OBP league): Justin Turner or J.D. Davis?

Brad Johnson: I want to hop on the hypewagon, but I’m gonna stick with Turner.

Brad Johnson: Davis has a skill set – low angle hard contact – which I consistently undervalue.

Brad Johnson: I think they’re both closer to 500 PA than full time action

Brad Johnson: A mid-way note: I’m seeing quite a few questions related to my NFBC article from yesterday. They’re interesting and I’d like to comment, but it’s probably best if I refrain.

Brad Johnson: Here is my twitter statement about what happened.

Mike Yost: Doing my first Draft and hold any advice? Might over draft saves?

Brad Johnson: You need more early pitchers than you realize

Brad Johnson: They’ll be bad values but you have to get them anyway.

Brad Johnson: At least sometimes.

Phil: Does Garrett Hampson bat leadoff and get 500+ ABs this year? Are you drafting him in any leagues?

Brad Johnson: Hampson is pretty far down my wish list at this point. I’m targeting Daniel Murphy before him if that tells you anything.

Brad Johnson: Like WAY before him.

snid: Would you please rank the following for Dynasty league:  Woodruff, Soroka, Paddack

Brad Johnson: Same asset class

Brad Johnson: I might prefer Paddack just because he hasn’t dealt with a major arm injury recently.

Brad Johnson: But that’s just fitting a narrative to make a decision

thugnasty: In H2H leagues, do you recommend punting a category? Do you typically choose steals?

Brad Johnson: I try to avoid a full punt. And if I do, it’s usually RBI.

Brad Johnson: I like to pile up SBs because it’s an easy to manage category.

Brad Johnson: I could roster 10 of top 25 AVG hitters and still lose 1/3 of the weeks. If I have Acuna, Mondesi, and Edman, I’m winning steals all but 1 or 2 weeks.

Sam: Is Howie Kendrick keepable in all but the deepest of leagues? He’s got 1B, 2B and 3B (and by extension MI and CI) eligibility   in my 14 team Yahoo league and I kind of want to keep him at the FA min I picked up him at …

Brad Johnson: It depends on opportunity cost.

Brad Johnson: And I’m assuming it’s a daily lineup league

Brad Johnson: Cuz you gotta move him in and out very proactively.

Brad Johnson:

Brad Johnson: Running the same poll on twitter

Deezy: Two highly touted prospects,  how does Jo Adell compare too Byron Buxton hype? Will he disappoint aka buxton?

Brad Johnson: So Luis Robert evokes Buxton a lot more strongly for me.

Brad Johnson: Adell I think is a little tricky. I’m reminded a bit of Tatis Jr. in that the physical talent is so absurd that he could produce without being close to actualized.

Brad Johnson: His peripherals are somewhat problematic. It’s possible he won’t make enough contact to matter in 2020.

Brad Johnson: I do kind of think seeing him in 2020 is a tad premature for a would-be contender.

Brad Johnson: I’m not assuming he’s a late April call up like he’s being drafted.

Anonymous: my pet peeve is when fantasy analysts say ‘Take a shot on him! At his price he’s free!’ … Roster spots are incredibly valuable my dude you have to know this

Brad Johnson: I try to leave the caveat of “subject to opportunity cost” as often as possible.

Brad Johnson: I can’t qualify *everything* I say

Brad Johnson: I mean, I can, and I come way too damned close to doing so.

Brad Johnson: But it’s bad writing.

Brad Johnson: If you read between the lines, a good half of my answers are a variation on “it depends.” But it’s also my job to stake a claim to something. I sometimes have to assume you left me enough information about your costs.

Victor Robles: Will I be a fantasy star in 2021 and beyond?

Brad Johnson: And 2020 too

Brad Johnson: Hell, there’s talk of him batting leadoff, although that doesn’t really pass muster for me.

Vic: Are Hader and Yates the most reliable closers? Or is it still Chapman?

Brad Johnson: It’s a fool’s errand to try to pick a “most reliable closer”

Brad Johnson: My advice is to keep them at affordable prices or buy them at value.

Brad Johnson: The latter portion of the statement can mean 2 things.

Brad Johnson:

1. if a top guy is falling down the draft, he could be worth it – I just wouldn’t reach early.
2. If the top guys go at a dear price, look for the Brandon Workmans of the draft.

Al: Honestly, is it wrong to think Franimal is similar to Eloy? Franmil increases average a bit and Eloy loses a bit…they’re essentially the same at way different price, no?

Brad Johnson: I like Reyes as a late solution to power, but I don’t see any ceiling on him

Brad Johnson: He’s limited by his lack of plate discipline.

Brad Johnson: Might Eloy be overrated for 2020 purposes? Probably.

Brad Johnson: So I could see preferring cheap Reyes to expensive Eloy.

Brad Johnson: Ignoring cost, I don’t think you can expect Reyes to keep up with Eloy without an injury or some other kind of help.

Trade: $1 ketel or $48 sale?

Brad Johnson: Ketel

Bang bang: Do you think McKay is likely to spend the majority of the year in the rotation? Who does he push out, Yarbs or Chirinos? In the best case scenario, could he finish a top 40 pitcher?

Brad Johnson: No. He’s a Ray and he has options. If they option him once, they’re going to option him 10 times

Ontilt1377: Rank Robles, mercado, Laureano 5×5 roto

Brad Johnson: Robles, Laureano, Mercado for me.

Brad Johnson: Decent separation between each. First two are closer than Mercado.

Brad Johnson: There is modest risk Mercado falls into a role where he only delivers 400 or 500 PA

Brad Johnson: The other 2 start every game for which they are healthy.

Your own personal troll: Who would you prefer in 2020 (16-team mixed; 5×5 standard cats; weekly roster moves; deep rosters, but 13 hitter, 6 SP, 5 RP; so deeper pitching; pitching is wildly inflated):  Tatis at $14 or Flaherty at $12?

Brad Johnson: I shouldn’t have clicked this one. I don’t know!

Brad Johnson: Those are both excellent values.

Brad Johnson: So I’ll suggest the supporting cast is relevant.

Brad Johnson: And as a tie breaker, bats are “safer”

Astros Beeper: How much are you taking into account the cheating scandal this year?  Do you think there will be no impact on expected performance for the Atros?  5% drop?  10%?

Brad Johnson: It might be the wrong choice, but I haven’t incorporated any shift in expectations.

Brad Johnson: I think my dream is for George Springer to start the season 1-for-20 so I can pounce.

Forrest G: Can Franmil be a top power bat this year? Why isn’t he getting more love after 37 HR last year?

Brad Johnson: Yes but there are 2 issues. It’s really empty power, and he disappeared a bit after joining Cleveland.

Brad Johnson: Progressive Field is stealthy bad for right-handed power.

Brad Johnson: Lot of Reyes talk, Aristides Aquino is the same player but with a better park and a very fraught path to playing time (so much competition!)

Guest: What do you think of the Mattew Liberatore deal? And do you see Randy Arozarena being apart of the rays plans any more than the core guys they have now? Interesting swap for sure.

Brad Johnson: I was baffled at the time, and I remain moderately baffled now.

Brad Johnson: I can only think Liberatore isn’t as good as the hype

Andrew: Keep forever dynasty (OBP): Willy Adames, Tommy Edman, or Luis Arraez?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Edman today.

Jerry B: All those of you predicting a decline in Astro hitter production post-cheating: don’t forget to factor in the OBP bump they’ll receive for all times they get plunked in 2020.

Jeremy : Can Justin Upton be a solid OF option in 2020 with a healthy offseason under his belt?

Brad Johnson: Yes, it’s definitely possible.

Brad Johnson: I want late Upton shares.

NotBurtReynolds: On a scale of 9 – 10, how much do you love Bryan Reynolds?

Brad Johnson: It’s like a 4. I don’t understand how I keep getting put in these spots to tout him.

Brad Johnson: But he’s one of those extreme low-angle, hard contact guys. His BABIP was nuts last year but it also *should* be nuts based on his contact profile. He also has growth attributes for power and should spend the whole year mid-lineup.

Dont forget:: That Aquino will steal some bags too, apparently. Reyes won’t.

Andrew: Keep forever dynasty: Nathan Eovaldi, Pablo Lopez, or Aaron Civale?

Brad Johnson: Uh, you’re actually Tom Trudeau aren’t you?

Brad Johnson: I have Eovaldi and Civale and he’s been trying to convince me to take Lopez.

Brad Johnson: My plan is to keep Civale, cut Eovaldi, and maybe trade a penny for Lopez as my last keep.

Smitty P: Can Tommy La Stella continue his breakout?

Brad Johnson: When you phrase a question this way, the answer is almost always yes

Hello: Rank these pitchers getting offseason hype: Canning, Houser, M Keller, Civale, Desclafani

Brad Johnson: Canning, Keller, blech

Brad Johnson: The last 3 are glob arms

Brad Johnson: throw a dart at whichever you personally like

Stormy D: Kiermaier of Mercado for 2020?

Brad Johnson: Mercado

bob villar: keep forever dynasty: Yolmer Sanchez, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Langerhans?

Brad Johnson: You made me make sure there isn’t a Ryan Langerhans Jr. rising through the ranks

Brad Johnson: Seems like every player from my childhood is rushing a Jr. through the minors

Brad Johnson: Gotta go Yolmer for this totally serious question!

Eric: If you were trading him, what’s a reasonable return you’re looking to receive for keeper-eligible deGrom? 6×6 H2H 12 teams

Brad Johnson: This is a format in which deGrom is arguably the top player. It’s him or Cole.

Brad Johnson: well, I guess it depends on the 6th category. Is it HDs, QS, K/BB, something else?

Brad Johnson: Basically anything other than HDs, my first statement is still true

Brad Johnson: And prospects are barely worth a thing because it’s 12 team and there are 150 awesome prospects right now.

Brad Johnson: So you want an elite hitter and a second very good piece. Say Yelich and Chapman as an example?

NotBurtReynolds: Are you down on Robles hitting 1st/2nd because of the skill-set or the current roster? Where do you think he’d fit best, if not near the top? I don’t think he’s better than Turner/Eaton for the top spots, but there sure is a lot of shakiness in that lineup, so I just don’t know where I’d put him.

Brad Johnson: both, the skill set isn’t OBP-centric enough to support a top-of-the-lineup role. They have better options. Howie Kendrick is frankly a better choice. When he starts.

Brad Johnson: It probably should be Soto if they’re insistent on removing Turner.

Ontilt1377: On the Zac Gallen hype train?

Brad Johnson: I (with Alex Chamberlain) started the Gallen hype train

Brad Johnson: Gallen was a Peripheral Prospects Poster Child. He is our Corey Kluber.

bob villar: is 3 IL spots too many for a dynasty?

Brad Johnson: No. The way I play, we usually have huge rosters and no IL.

Amos Moses: Bud Norris to the Phils, woooweeeee!!!

Brad Johnson: And Drew Storen.

Brad Johnson: They’re going to crush 2014

Bad Back: Straight up give Machado for Kershaw in a dynasty roto QS keeper?  Petco vs aging back dilemma.

Brad Johnson: Can’t do that.

Brad Johnson: Machado is still way too good and young

Brad Johnson: I think that’s defensible in redraft or a format where both can’t be kept.

Cory: Sam Hilliard? Can he cut down on his strikeout rate?

Brad Johnson: He’s a Rockie. They hate anything that might be both good and cheap.

Brad Johnson: Seriously though, I want to love Hilliard and I can’t get past their dumpster fire roster management.

Brad Johnson: He doesn’t need to cut down on the Ks to be valuable

Pat’s Bat: Did you fill out a fake FG Hall of fame ballot?  Who was on it?

Brad Johnson: I did not but I would almost always vote for 10 people. Lemme remind myself who was up this year.

Brad Johnson: I tend to check out on MVP talk because it can only frustrate.

Brad Johnson: Clemens, Bonds, Walker, Rolen, Helton, Jeter, Jones, Sheffield, Manny, and Abreu.

Brad Johnson: I just have nothing but spite for Schilling. He probably should get a vote though given the others on my ballot.

Brad Johnson: Pettitte is the other obvious snub. Maybe take him over Ramirez.

Amos Moses: Why dont the dbacks give josh rojas a crack at the 2b gig?  He raked LY

Brad Johnson: He’s going to play

Brad Johnson: Draft him

Brad Johnson: I mean, don’t pay through the nose, but do grab those late shares.

Brad Johnson: He’s penciled into a super utility role or minors role to start, but as soon as an injury strikes he’s full time

Brad Johnson: The Diamondbacks are being clever. Sometimes it’s best to take a very small cut to your starting lineup in favor of better depth.

Neal: Garrett Hampson for one of Cease or Sean Murphy? Deep 30 team dynasty, std roto categories

Brad Johnson: Hampson is very hyped. I’d aim higher.

Brad Johnson: And I do really like Murphy.

Pat’s Bat: Keep Stephen Matz for $2 in a league where the top 100 plus starting pitchers are relevant or throw him back to try and save a buck?

Brad Johnson: Meh, just keep him if the plan is to reacquire him anyway

NotBurtReynolds: God, I love that someone asked one half of The Gallen Hype Train, if they were on the Gallen hype train.

Brad Johnson: Alex hypes harder. I get lost in the background.

Brad Johnson: You just did a pod with me, you know I’m not loud!

Anders: Dynasty league, guy keeps asking for Musgrove, he’d give me Kieboom. Problem is my UTIL spot is being used up so i have no space for him. Any advice on how to tackle?

Brad Johnson: Sometimes valuations match but the fit isn’t right.

Brad Johnson: I have to wrap up soon to give someone a ride.

Joe: Parts of me think Joey Lucchesi is not even rosterable and parts of me thing he’s at least a decent SP, decent ratios. What do you make of him?

Brad Johnson: I’m with you. It’s going to be one of those, right?

Brad Johnson: In all seriousness, he’s one of those dart throw guys

Brad Johnson: There are things we can look for in his spring and April work, but it comes down to his command and his stuff holding up

Brad Johnson: There’s a fine line between Lucchesi: fantasy asset and Lucchesi: fantasy scrub

Brad Johnson: They’re completely different pitchers, but Zach Eflin is kinda similar

DJ Tanner: Karinchak or Clase as a free rookie keeper in S+H league?

Brad Johnson: Those are similar, very strong options. I lean Clase.

Amos Moses: Luis Urias – sticks as viable SS for milwaukee?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I think so.

Brad Johnson: I don’t think you’re going to get earth shattering output. It should be playable.

Brad Johnson: He’ll be a value in some fantasy leagues and a bust in others. Just depends on league depth, how early he goes, and settings.

Brad Johnson: Ok, that’s a good place to stop. Good game folks.