Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/21/2020
by Brad Johnson
January 21, 2020
We chatted. Here is a transcript. The below-mentioned podcast is now live too.
| 3:53 |
: Let’s kick off the action in a few minutes.
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| 3:54 |
: I was hoping to finish editing my podcast so I could plug it today, but there are still a couple 30 second post-production things I need to record.
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| 3:55 |
: Nevertheless, I’m undaunted. The podcast is called Juiced Balls. I’m billing it as “the only baseball fantasy podcast.” Episode 1 featuring NotBurtReynolds will be available sometime tomorrow morning through all the major vendors. Apple, Spotify, wherever else Anchor distributes.
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| 3:56 |
: You can also access it directly via my Patreon. That’s Patreon.com/BaseballATeam. And I’ll be tweeting out a link periodically.
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| 4:01 |
: I only have 5 keeper slots. Which one doesn’t make the cut?
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| 4:02 |
:
The age-old question. |
| 4:02 |
: I’m not sure why that response is in a fancy box
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| 4:02 |
: Someone to read your posts, someone who boasts. Reach out, slap face.
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| 4:02 |
: I only have 5 keeper slots…which one doesn’t make the cut? Can keep for as many seasons as I want. deGrom (4th round), Story (4th), Springer (10th), Blackmon (12th), Judge (18th), Severino (18th).
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| 4:03 |
: Hiya Jordan
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| 4:03 |
: I think it’s Springer or Blackmon
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| 4:04 |
: They’re great values. Blackmon is starting to drift towards the back end of his career.
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| 4:04 |
: A case could be made for Sevy given his recent history, but you’ll feel really bad if he full rebounds.
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| 4:05 |
: Let’s also remember, Springer was pretty ho-hum in 2018. 22 HR, .265 AVG, 173 R+RBI and 6 SB
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| 4:06 |
: Strong but not amazing
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| 4:06 |
: I think we should be viewing 2019 as a ceiling
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| 4:06 |
: 16 team dynasty h2h 6×6. Bryant for Berrios? Is that enough for Bryant or should i ask for another piece?
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| 4:06 |
: I’d ask more. I’m partial to hitters
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| 4:07 |
: How do you approach standard 5×5 H2H leagues (12 team). Do you hammer elite SP early?
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| 4:07 |
: Yes. The H2H wrinkle really changes the way I approach fantasy.
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| 4:08 |
: Especially in 12-team or shallower, I want to dominate the pitching categories with elite arm then trust myself to find sufficiently big bats over time
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| 4:08 |
: Ages ago, it was easier to find a breakout arm than a breakout bat. Now the reverse is true.
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| 4:09 |
: FG Pts League: Traded my $29 Jo-Ram and $3 Swanson for his $4 Kingery and $3 Biggio. How’d I do?
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| 4:09 |
: Jury is going to be out for a year or two I think.
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| 4:09 |
: I like it in general, it’s a high risk, high reward trade.
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| 4:09 |
: Swanson isn’t anything in FGpts. He’s a $1 volume guy.
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| 4:10 |
: Biggio is a mystery to everyone. I think the range is $1 to $25 in the format.
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| 4:10 |
: Kingery’s got nice eligibilities.
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| 4:10 |
: Ramirez is the real lynchpin. Is he a $25-$30 guy or a $50 guy. I don’t think anybody has that answer.
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| 4:11 |
: The compilation of projections for foreign players looks like a great resource, but do you think Akiyama has more SB potential than the projections let on if he bats leadoff for the Reds?
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| 4:11 |
: The Reds do have a history of running a little more than the average club. Admittedly, I don’t have any other special insights into Akiyama.
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| 4:11 |
: on a scale from 1 (not) to 10 (very) – how concerned are you about senzel’s shoulder in 2020?
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| 4:11 |
: Somewhere in the 4-6 range
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| 4:12 |
: It’s an injury which can linger or take more than a year to fully heal. Or sometimes rehab goes perfectly.
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| 4:12 |
: We’ll start to get a better idea in the spring
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| 4:12 |
: Who would you keep, Machado or Judge in a 10 team keep forever points league?
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| 4:12 |
: Tricky. I want Judge’s power.
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| 4:13 |
: Is Oscar Mercado being overlooked? Potential 20HR/30SB guy?
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| 4:13 |
: If you’re wearing the most rose-colored glasses, sure.
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| 4:14 |
: For me, that’s probably a little north of a 100th percentile outcome
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| 4:14 |
: Which is to say he’d need to perform a little over 3 standard deviations better than I expect to get there.
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| 4:14 |
: It’s *possible* he’s a Tim Anderson sort whose fantasy value really plays up.
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| 4:15 |
: Better year (OBP league): David Peralta or Bryan Reynolds?
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| 4:15 |
: I want Reynolds. Projection is probably similar, but I see some ways Reynolds can grow. Gonna be hard for Peralta to escape the gravity of time and injuries.
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| 4:15 |
: How do you feel about the ATC projections? Which projections do you primarily use?
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| 4:16 |
: I don’t have a go-to set of projections – I usually either aggregate them or use the one I perceive to be least popular.
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| 4:16 |
: And I do some individual projections of my own
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| 4:16 |
: They’re not tied into a complete system like the official ones we publish
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| 4:17 |
: It would be embarrassing if I released them 🙂 Marked for internal use only. |
| 4:17 |
: Better year (OBP league): Justin Turner or J.D. Davis?
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| 4:17 |
: I want to hop on the hypewagon, but I’m gonna stick with Turner.
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| 4:17 |
: Davis has a skill set – low angle hard contact – which I consistently undervalue.
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| 4:18 |
: I think they’re both closer to 500 PA than full time action
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| 4:19 |
: A mid-way note: I’m seeing quite a few questions related to my NFBC article from yesterday. They’re interesting and I’d like to comment, but it’s probably best if I refrain.
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| 4:19 |
: Here is my twitter statement about what happened.
For those asking, I did voluntarily take down the NFBC post. Too many of my colleagues took it the wrong way on what I thought was basically a food-for-thought topic. I gushed about how great NFBC is as a platform and for the industry in the post, it’s just not my cup of tea. 1/7
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| 4:20 |
: Doing my first Draft and hold any advice? Might over draft saves?
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| 4:20 |
: You need more early pitchers than you realize
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| 4:20 |
: They’ll be bad values but you have to get them anyway.
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| 4:20 |
: At least sometimes.
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| 4:20 |
: Does Garrett Hampson bat leadoff and get 500+ ABs this year? Are you drafting him in any leagues?
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| 4:21 |
: Hampson is pretty far down my wish list at this point. I’m targeting Daniel Murphy before him if that tells you anything.
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| 4:21 |
: Like WAY before him.
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| 4:21 |
: Would you please rank the following for Dynasty league: Woodruff, Soroka, Paddack
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| 4:21 |
: Same asset class
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| 4:21 |
: I might prefer Paddack just because he hasn’t dealt with a major arm injury recently.
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| 4:22 |
: But that’s just fitting a narrative to make a decision
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| 4:22 |
: In H2H leagues, do you recommend punting a category? Do you typically choose steals?
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| 4:22 |
: I try to avoid a full punt. And if I do, it’s usually RBI.
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| 4:22 |
: I like to pile up SBs because it’s an easy to manage category.
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| 4:23 |
: I could roster 10 of top 25 AVG hitters and still lose 1/3 of the weeks. If I have Acuna, Mondesi, and Edman, I’m winning steals all but 1 or 2 weeks.
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| 4:24 |
: Is Howie Kendrick keepable in all but the deepest of leagues? He’s got 1B, 2B and 3B (and by extension MI and CI) eligibility in my 14 team Yahoo league and I kind of want to keep him at the FA min I picked up him at …
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| 4:24 |
: It depends on opportunity cost.
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| 4:24 |
: And I’m assuming it’s a daily lineup league
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| 4:24 |
: Cuz you gotta move him in and out very proactively.
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| 4:25 |
:
Choose One
Dinelson Lamet in the 11th Round (36.3% | 20 votes)
Robbie Ray in the 13th Round (49.0% | 27 votes)
Show Me the Results (14.5% | 8 votes)
Total Votes: 55
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| 4:26 |
: Running the same poll on twitter
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| 4:26 |
: Two highly touted prospects, how does Jo Adell compare too Byron Buxton hype? Will he disappoint aka buxton?
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| 4:26 |
: So Luis Robert evokes Buxton a lot more strongly for me.
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| 4:27 |
: Adell I think is a little tricky. I’m reminded a bit of Tatis Jr. in that the physical talent is so absurd that he could produce without being close to actualized.
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| 4:27 |
: His peripherals are somewhat problematic. It’s possible he won’t make enough contact to matter in 2020.
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| 4:28 |
: I do kind of think seeing him in 2020 is a tad premature for a would-be contender.
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| 4:28 |
: I’m not assuming he’s a late April call up like he’s being drafted.
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| 4:29 |
: my pet peeve is when fantasy analysts say ‘Take a shot on him! At his price he’s free!’ … Roster spots are incredibly valuable my dude you have to know this
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| 4:29 |
: I try to leave the caveat of “subject to opportunity cost” as often as possible.
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| 4:29 |
: I can’t qualify *everything* I say
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| 4:29 |
: I mean, I can, and I come way too damned close to doing so.
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| 4:30 |
: But it’s bad writing.
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| 4:31 |
: If you read between the lines, a good half of my answers are a variation on “it depends.” But it’s also my job to stake a claim to something. I sometimes have to assume you left me enough information about your costs.
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| 4:31 |
: Will I be a fantasy star in 2021 and beyond?
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| 4:31 |
: And 2020 too
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| 4:31 |
: Hell, there’s talk of him batting leadoff, although that doesn’t really pass muster for me.
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| 4:31 |
: Are Hader and Yates the most reliable closers? Or is it still Chapman?
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| 4:32 |
: It’s a fool’s errand to try to pick a “most reliable closer”
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| 4:32 |
: My advice is to keep them at affordable prices or buy them at value.
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| 4:32 |
: The latter portion of the statement can mean 2 things.
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| 4:33 |
:
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| 4:33 |
: Honestly, is it wrong to think Franimal is similar to Eloy? Franmil increases average a bit and Eloy loses a bit…they’re essentially the same at way different price, no?
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| 4:33 |
: I like Reyes as a late solution to power, but I don’t see any ceiling on him
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| 4:34 |
: He’s limited by his lack of plate discipline.
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| 4:34 |
: Might Eloy be overrated for 2020 purposes? Probably.
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| 4:34 |
: So I could see preferring cheap Reyes to expensive Eloy.
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| 4:34 |
: Ignoring cost, I don’t think you can expect Reyes to keep up with Eloy without an injury or some other kind of help.
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| 4:35 |
: $1 ketel or $48 sale?
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| 4:35 |
: Ketel
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| 4:35 |
: Do you think McKay is likely to spend the majority of the year in the rotation? Who does he push out, Yarbs or Chirinos? In the best case scenario, could he finish a top 40 pitcher?
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| 4:35 |
: No. He’s a Ray and he has options. If they option him once, they’re going to option him 10 times
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| 4:36 |
: Rank Robles, mercado, Laureano 5×5 roto
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| 4:36 |
: Robles, Laureano, Mercado for me.
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| 4:36 |
: Decent separation between each. First two are closer than Mercado.
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| 4:36 |
: There is modest risk Mercado falls into a role where he only delivers 400 or 500 PA
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| 4:37 |
: The other 2 start every game for which they are healthy.
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| 4:37 |
: Who would you prefer in 2020 (16-team mixed; 5×5 standard cats; weekly roster moves; deep rosters, but 13 hitter, 6 SP, 5 RP; so deeper pitching; pitching is wildly inflated): Tatis at $14 or Flaherty at $12?
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| 4:37 |
: I shouldn’t have clicked this one. I don’t know!
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| 4:37 |
: Those are both excellent values.
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| 4:37 |
: So I’ll suggest the supporting cast is relevant.
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| 4:38 |
: And as a tie breaker, bats are “safer”
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| 4:38 |
: How much are you taking into account the cheating scandal this year? Do you think there will be no impact on expected performance for the Atros? 5% drop? 10%?
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| 4:38 |
: It might be the wrong choice, but I haven’t incorporated any shift in expectations.
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| 4:39 |
: I think my dream is for George Springer to start the season 1-for-20 so I can pounce.
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| 4:39 |
: Can Franmil be a top power bat this year? Why isn’t he getting more love after 37 HR last year?
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| 4:39 |
: Yes but there are 2 issues. It’s really empty power, and he disappeared a bit after joining Cleveland.
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| 4:39 |
: Progressive Field is stealthy bad for right-handed power.
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| 4:40 |
: Lot of Reyes talk, Aristides Aquino is the same player but with a better park and a very fraught path to playing time (so much competition!)
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| 4:40 |
: What do you think of the Mattew Liberatore deal? And do you see Randy Arozarena being apart of the rays plans any more than the core guys they have now? Interesting swap for sure.
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| 4:41 |
: I was baffled at the time, and I remain moderately baffled now.
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| 4:41 |
: I can only think Liberatore isn’t as good as the hype
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| 4:41 |
: Keep forever dynasty (OBP): Willy Adames, Tommy Edman, or Luis Arraez?
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| 4:41 |
: Gimme Edman today.
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| 4:42 |
: All those of you predicting a decline in Astro hitter production post-cheating: don’t forget to factor in the OBP bump they’ll receive for all times they get plunked in 2020.
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| 4:42 |
: Can Justin Upton be a solid OF option in 2020 with a healthy offseason under his belt?
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| 4:42 |
: Yes, it’s definitely possible.
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| 4:42 |
: I want late Upton shares.
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| 4:42 |
: On a scale of 9 – 10, how much do you love Bryan Reynolds?
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| 4:42 |
: It’s like a 4. I don’t understand how I keep getting put in these spots to tout him.
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| 4:44 |
: But he’s one of those extreme low-angle, hard contact guys. His BABIP was nuts last year but it also *should* be nuts based on his contact profile. He also has growth attributes for power and should spend the whole year mid-lineup.
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| 4:44 |
: That Aquino will steal some bags too, apparently. Reyes won’t.
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| 4:44 |
: Keep forever dynasty: Nathan Eovaldi, Pablo Lopez, or Aaron Civale?
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| 4:44 |
: Uh, you’re actually Tom Trudeau aren’t you?
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| 4:45 |
: I have Eovaldi and Civale and he’s been trying to convince me to take Lopez.
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| 4:45 |
: My plan is to keep Civale, cut Eovaldi, and maybe trade a penny for Lopez as my last keep.
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| 4:45 |
: Can Tommy La Stella continue his breakout?
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| 4:45 |
: When you phrase a question this way, the answer is almost always yes
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| 4:46 |
: Rank these pitchers getting offseason hype: Canning, Houser, M Keller, Civale, Desclafani
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| 4:46 |
: Canning, Keller, blech
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| 4:46 |
: The last 3 are glob arms
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| 4:46 |
: throw a dart at whichever you personally like
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| 4:46 |
: Kiermaier of Mercado for 2020?
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| 4:46 |
: Mercado
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| 4:47 |
: keep forever dynasty: Yolmer Sanchez, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Langerhans?
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| 4:47 |
: You made me make sure there isn’t a Ryan Langerhans Jr. rising through the ranks
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| 4:48 |
: Seems like every player from my childhood is rushing a Jr. through the minors
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| 4:48 |
: Gotta go Yolmer for this totally serious question!
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| 4:48 |
: If you were trading him, what’s a reasonable return you’re looking to receive for keeper-eligible deGrom? 6×6 H2H 12 teams
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| 4:49 |
: This is a format in which deGrom is arguably the top player. It’s him or Cole.
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| 4:49 |
: well, I guess it depends on the 6th category. Is it HDs, QS, K/BB, something else?
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| 4:49 |
: Basically anything other than HDs, my first statement is still true
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| 4:50 |
: And prospects are barely worth a thing because it’s 12 team and there are 150 awesome prospects right now.
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| 4:50 |
: So you want an elite hitter and a second very good piece. Say Yelich and Chapman as an example?
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| 4:51 |
: Are you down on Robles hitting 1st/2nd because of the skill-set or the current roster? Where do you think he’d fit best, if not near the top? I don’t think he’s better than Turner/Eaton for the top spots, but there sure is a lot of shakiness in that lineup, so I just don’t know where I’d put him.
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| 4:52 |
: both, the skill set isn’t OBP-centric enough to support a top-of-the-lineup role. They have better options. Howie Kendrick is frankly a better choice. When he starts.
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| 4:52 |
: It probably should be Soto if they’re insistent on removing Turner.
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| 4:52 |
: On the Zac Gallen hype train?
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| 4:52 |
: I (with Alex Chamberlain) started the Gallen hype train
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| 4:53 |
: Gallen was a Peripheral Prospects Poster Child. He is our Corey Kluber.
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| 4:53 |
: is 3 IL spots too many for a dynasty?
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| 4:53 |
: No. The way I play, we usually have huge rosters and no IL.
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| 4:53 |
: Bud Norris to the Phils, woooweeeee!!!
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| 4:53 |
: And Drew Storen.
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| 4:54 |
: They’re going to crush 2014
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| 4:54 |
: Straight up give Machado for Kershaw in a dynasty roto QS keeper? Petco vs aging back dilemma.
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| 4:54 |
: Can’t do that.
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| 4:54 |
: Machado is still way too good and young
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| 4:54 |
: I think that’s defensible in redraft or a format where both can’t be kept.
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| 4:55 |
: Sam Hilliard? Can he cut down on his strikeout rate?
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| 4:55 |
: He’s a Rockie. They hate anything that might be both good and cheap.
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| 4:55 |
: Seriously though, I want to love Hilliard and I can’t get past their dumpster fire roster management.
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| 4:56 |
: He doesn’t need to cut down on the Ks to be valuable
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| 4:56 |
: Did you fill out a fake FG Hall of fame ballot? Who was on it?
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| 4:56 |
: I did not but I would almost always vote for 10 people. Lemme remind myself who was up this year.
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| 4:57 |
: I tend to check out on MVP talk because it can only frustrate.
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| 4:58 |
: Clemens, Bonds, Walker, Rolen, Helton, Jeter, Jones, Sheffield, Manny, and Abreu.
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| 4:59 |
: I just have nothing but spite for Schilling. He probably should get a vote though given the others on my ballot.
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| 4:59 |
: Pettitte is the other obvious snub. Maybe take him over Ramirez.
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| 4:59 |
: Why dont the dbacks give josh rojas a crack at the 2b gig? He raked LY
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| 4:59 |
: He’s going to play
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| 4:59 |
: Draft him
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| 5:00 |
: I mean, don’t pay through the nose, but do grab those late shares.
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| 5:00 |
: He’s penciled into a super utility role or minors role to start, but as soon as an injury strikes he’s full time
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| 5:01 |
: The Diamondbacks are being clever. Sometimes it’s best to take a very small cut to your starting lineup in favor of better depth.
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| 5:01 |
: Garrett Hampson for one of Cease or Sean Murphy? Deep 30 team dynasty, std roto categories
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| 5:01 |
: Hampson is very hyped. I’d aim higher.
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| 5:02 |
: And I do really like Murphy.
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| 5:02 |
: Keep Stephen Matz for $2 in a league where the top 100 plus starting pitchers are relevant or throw him back to try and save a buck?
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| 5:02 |
: Meh, just keep him if the plan is to reacquire him anyway
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| 5:02 |
: God, I love that someone asked one half of The Gallen Hype Train, if they were on the Gallen hype train.
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| 5:02 |
: Alex hypes harder. I get lost in the background.
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| 5:03 |
: You just did a pod with me, you know I’m not loud!
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| 5:03 |
: Dynasty league, guy keeps asking for Musgrove, he’d give me Kieboom. Problem is my UTIL spot is being used up so i have no space for him. Any advice on how to tackle?
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| 5:03 |
: Sometimes valuations match but the fit isn’t right.
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| 5:04 |
: I have to wrap up soon to give someone a ride.
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| 5:04 |
: Parts of me think Joey Lucchesi is not even rosterable and parts of me thing he’s at least a decent SP, decent ratios. What do you make of him?
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| 5:04 |
: I’m with you. It’s going to be one of those, right?
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| 5:05 |
: In all seriousness, he’s one of those dart throw guys
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| 5:05 |
: There are things we can look for in his spring and April work, but it comes down to his command and his stuff holding up
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| 5:06 |
: There’s a fine line between Lucchesi: fantasy asset and Lucchesi: fantasy scrub
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| 5:06 |
: They’re completely different pitchers, but Zach Eflin is kinda similar
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| 5:07 |
: Karinchak or Clase as a free rookie keeper in S+H league?
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| 5:07 |
: Those are similar, very strong options. I lean Clase.
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| 5:07 |
: Luis Urias – sticks as viable SS for milwaukee?
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| 5:07 |
: Yes, I think so.
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| 5:07 |
: I don’t think you’re going to get earth shattering output. It should be playable.
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| 5:08 |
: He’ll be a value in some fantasy leagues and a bust in others. Just depends on league depth, how early he goes, and settings.
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| 5:08 |
: Ok, that’s a good place to stop. Good game folks.
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