Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/15/2019
by Brad Johnson
January 15, 2019
Here’s the transcript to today’s fantasy chat.
| 3:59 |
: hi brad!
|
| 3:59 |
: Hi Bangers!
|
| 3:59 |
: We’ll get started in a couple minutes.
|
| 4:01 |
: Who gets more saves- Robertson or Seranthony?
|
| 4:01 |
: Robertson is a pretty safe bet
|
| 4:01 |
: Not a lock by any means, but it’s the percentage play
|
| 4:01 |
: Thoughts on Clevinger as a #2 fantasy P to put behind my Verlander? Thanks!
|
| 4:02 |
: I see nothing wrong with that Clevinger is a good source of strikeouts and wins, and he should be no worse than neutral in ERA and WHIP too.
|
| 4:02 |
: Free Senzel and Tucker, where would you trade them and who would you want headlining the return for each?
|
| 4:02 |
: This one is meaty…
|
| 4:03 |
: I’ll focus on Tucker first who I think has an obvious place in the Braves outfield for a collection of young arms.
|
| 4:03 |
: As for Senzel, the Padres seem to be the team that’s semi-trying and in need of a 3B
|
| 4:03 |
: They have a deep pool of prospects to try for 1-for-1 or 2-for-1 swaps
|
| 4:04 |
: The Rangers could use a long term guy, but I don’t see many exciting fits for the Reds there.
|
| 4:04 |
: Could go on and on here, but I won’t
|
| 4:04 |
: I am trying to decide between keeping Wilson Ramos and Michael Conforto in an NL-only, OBP league (2 Cs, 4 OFs). On the one hand, Ramos projects as one of the top guys at the weakest position; on the other, Conforto projects for better overall stats than Ramos, but at a deep position. Generally, do you prioritize position scarcity (Ramos) or overall production (Conforto) in choosing keepers?
|
| 4:05 |
: You’re overthinking it. It’s Conforto and you just deal with the C pain. Conforto has to be somewhere in the vicinity of a top 30 keeper in that format (assuming no costs). Definitely prioritize production.
|
| 4:05 |
: (oops. sorry.)
hi brad!** insane to trade degom for vlad in a shallow roto keeper? keep forever with no costs/rounds for keepers. 10 teams, 6 kept per team, 290 players rostered in league. Thanks! |
| 4:05 |
: No, not insane.
|
| 4:06 |
: Also not a must-do move in a shallow format.
|
| 4:06 |
: Final keeper in a 12 tm keep 10 forever TB+OPS and QS+HD added. Gallo, Scooter, Moncada, Pham, Justin Upton, Dahl, Mondesi, Puig, Greinke, Hader.
|
| 4:07 |
: Tough choice between Gallo, Mondesi, and Pham for me. I’d lean Mondesi for the go big or go home first round value potential
|
| 4:07 |
: Though Gallo and Pham will probably both outperform him.
|
| 4:07 |
: Sounds like you must have 9 monster keepers
|
| 4:07 |
: Keep Lindor at 2nd round or Eloy for 28th round?
|
| 4:08 |
: I’ll bank Lindor in most scenarios I can imagine
|
| 4:08 |
: 12 team H2H league K/BB instead of wins. Trying a new strategy and “trimming the fat” off my rotation without sacrificing too much in K’s. Looking to replace guys like Tanner Roark with a RP with good ratios who also will qualify as a SP. Any suggestions on guys who could be available?
|
| 4:09 |
: I’ll note that this is a great approach. I do not have many specific recommendations at this time – mostly because the league is positively flooded with guys who fit this description. Focusing on individuals right now seems unnecessary.
|
| 4:09 |
: The important part is, yes, you’ve hit upon the correct approach.
|
| 4:09 |
: Hi. Between Franmil Reyes and Willie Calhoun, who do you think has more upside this year/in the future?
|
| 4:10 |
: I might be in the minority, but I really don’t think Franmil is a starting OFer for most teams. He’ll find a regular job, but he may need to shuffle around a lot first. Defense is bad and the bat isn’t enough to carry him.
|
| 4:11 |
: That said, Calhoun’s 2018 was so disappointing. I’ll still take his mix of contact and power, but I’m worried.
|
| 4:11 |
: Dustin Fowler seems to have slid down the A’s OF depth chart. Any hope that he gets regular ABs?
|
| 4:11 |
: Sure. As of today, he just needs an injury or two to open the door. I do think the A’s will add at least one veteran OFer if not a pair.
|
| 4:11 |
: Presently, unless I’m forgetting someone, it’s Piscotty, Laureano, Martini, and Canha
|
| 4:11 |
: Khris Davis or Trea Turner in a 12 tm keep 10 forever with TB+OPS added?
|
| 4:12 |
: Trea Turner
|
| 4:12 |
: Davis has been incredibly consistent but that’ll magically vanish one year
|
| 4:12 |
: And I bet it’s in the next 3
|
| 4:13 |
: Turner hasn’t even figured out how to make consistently good contact, and he’s still a consensus 1st rounder in non-TB+OPS
|
| 4:13 |
: If he takes that step forward, he’s a top 3 pick in every format.
|
| 4:13 |
: Dynasty points league: name three SP you would target if if you are trading Eugenio Suarez.
|
| 4:14 |
: Any ace not named Chris Sale?
|
| 4:14 |
: The older aces should be available because they’re… older. The younger aces should be available because pitchers break constantly
|
| 4:15 |
: When trading a hitter for a pitcher in dynasty, the pitcher should be somewhere between 20 and 40% better than the hitter.
|
| 4:15 |
: In general, there are specific scenarios where that’s not true. And it breaks down at the extremes (i.e. Sale or scrubs)
|
| 4:15 |
: In Ottoneu points, is $50 fair value (generally) to keep Machado?
|
| 4:15 |
: You don’t HAVE to keep him at this price if you have better values available
|
| 4:16 |
: And I don’t mean a bunch of Brandon Nimmos for $5.
|
| 4:16 |
: Like if you’re between Machado or Lindor for $50, you keep Lindor. But if you’re between Machado and $50 to draft guys, keep Machado.
|
| 4:17 |
: I’ve been offered Luzardo for my Musgrove… I should be a playoff team this year. Do I take that chance? I should have enough pitching to get by without Musgrove buttttt – he also looks primed for a breakout.
|
| 4:17 |
: I too like Musgrove. Let me look into this a little more.
|
| 4:18 |
: So because they’re pitchers, I’m not especially worried about Musgrove being 5 years older
|
| 4:18 |
: I’d project roughly the same number of innings from both over the next 5+ years
|
| 4:18 |
: And I don’t care about 2025 as a rule
|
| 4:19 |
: This is a really tough spot. I think it’s a taut offer, meaning you can take it or leave it and not feel bad.
|
| 4:20 |
: I like to think about these from the perspective of asset diversification
|
| 4:20 |
: Musgrove is solid and could improve to be a better-than-Glob sub-ace
|
| 4:20 |
: Luzardo could be anything from a reliever to an ace
|
| 4:21 |
: If you have other Musgroves or can access them, take Luzardo. And vice versa. If you already have Forrest Whitley but fringy MLB pitching, maybe pass on Luzardo.
|
| 4:21 |
: Why do I value the players on my roster more highly than I would if they were on someone else’s roster? And how can I fix myself?
|
| 4:22 |
: This is a very common psychological/behavioral phenomenon called the endowment effect
|
| 4:22 |
: Studies find that if you give something to somebody, they want more in exchange for it than if somebody else has it.
|
| 4:23 |
: The best you can do is be aware of it. Generally, players end up on your roster because you already like them more than others.
|
| 4:23 |
: Any positions you plan to prioritize/reach a little in drafts this year to ensure getting the last guy or two in a tier? 1B, SP and/or Closer?
|
| 4:24 |
: In a snake, I’ll put more effort into early SP. Closers tend to float my way more often in snakes too.
|
| 4:24 |
: I almost exclusively play auctions though…
|
| 4:24 |
: And in those, I tend to avoid paying for pitchers unless they’re going cheaply
|
| 4:24 |
: Re: Endowment effect, it doesn’t work for every trade, but try thinking through whether you would do the trade in reverse.
|
| 4:25 |
: Fangraphs points – you prefer $30 Seager or $8 Dejong as your everyday SS?
|
| 4:25 |
: Gimme Seager
|
| 4:25 |
: That’s the one format that really rewards his style of hitting
|
| 4:25 |
: Do you drink while you draft?
|
| 4:25 |
: Usually
|
| 4:25 |
: Do you like Puig in Cincinnati this season? Also on Dave Dahl, I’ve seen some very aggressive projections for him, what are your thoughts? Thanks.
|
| 4:26 |
: Dahl is one of those weird guys for me
|
| 4:26 |
: Every so often, a player I’ve hyped for a long time suddenly turns way too widely liked
|
| 4:26 |
: He’s just a fringy third outfielder with some Coors Field help
|
| 4:27 |
: At least at this stage of his development.
|
| 4:27 |
: I do think Cincy will help Puig
|
| 4:27 |
: Grandal or Contreras the better producing catcher for traditional redraft? And/or OBP leagues?
|
| 4:27 |
: I’ll toss a bet on Grandal, as I’ve done for half a decade.
|
| 4:28 |
: re: lindor vs. eloy, if shallow league might take eloy given depth of SS (even with lindor as top option at the position)
|
| 4:28 |
: Actually, I have the very opposite reaction. In shallow formats, you lock down elite talent and ALWAYS trade prospects. Even Vladito.
|
| 4:29 |
: The ready availability of high quality talent means you don’t need long term assets. At all.
|
| 4:29 |
: Shallow leagues are purely a function of outmanaging the competition plus the usual smattering of luck.
|
| 4:29 |
: Roster management only matters in the current year. You can always solve your way out of a shortfall of young studs.
|
| 4:30 |
: all things being equal, last keeper, Segura or Taillon
|
| 4:30 |
: Taillon for me.
|
| 4:30 |
: Better late round flier in a points league- barretto or d. Fowler
|
| 4:30 |
: Barreto
|
| 4:31 |
: He has a decent chance and sneaking ahead of Fowler for OF reps, and he also can back fill the INF as needed.
|
| 4:31 |
: What could a $54 Scherzer fetch in an Ottoneu fgpoints?
|
| 4:31 |
: That’s very league dependent.
|
| 4:31 |
: In some leagues, everybody will be afraid of the expensive asset and offer like one decent $3 prospect (i.e. Carter Kieboom)
|
| 4:31 |
: In others, you could pluck a king’s ransom
|
| 4:32 |
: fwiw, I would hold Scherzer if you can’t get the ransom.
|
| 4:32 |
: Who finishes with the most saves- Hicks, Domguez, Minter?
|
| 4:32 |
: Tricksy…I’ll guess Minter for now. My answer will likely change throughout the year.
|
| 4:32 |
: Nola and Severino a legit 1-2 ace combo? Any hope to match up with Sale/scherZer?
|
| 4:33 |
: In a given week, sure? But the later pair is definitely a better bet.
|
| 4:33 |
: They’re both good combos, but you should take it a step farther if we’re talking H2H
|
| 4:33 |
: I go whole hog on aces and it usually works – assuming the league isn’t deep
|
| 4:34 |
: H2H and deep usually don’t mix for some reason
|
| 4:34 |
: 12 team league with OBP: Trade a $6 Albies for a $65 Betts? Cost goes up by $5 each year. $260 budget
|
| 4:34 |
: I dunno. I’m having trouble believing $65 Betts is a keep.
|
| 4:35 |
: I’ve been seeing Mike Trout go for $50-55 for years in my $310 budget, salary +$7 leagues
|
| 4:35 |
: That said, I see no reason to cling to a $6 Albies if you want to lock in the legit monster
|
| 4:36 |
: I’m not Sporer, Albies is just a middling 2B to me. Has a lot of Rougie Odor qualities, although there’s a lot more hope for growth.
|
| 4:37 |
: Zigged when a dynasty startup zagged, got a pile of SP2/3s and no ace. Reasonable strategy to go with depth this year with people hitting SP hard in Rds. 2-5, draft pitching heavy in mid-rounds?
Greinke/Tanaka/C. Martinez/Ray/Archer/Quintana/Freeland/J. Gray—this can win now in a H2H, right? Thanks |
| 4:37 |
: Yes, but every week is going to be a battle. And I hope you have some top relievers to salvage ratios.
|
| 4:37 |
: Keep two in OBP H2H: Abreu, Ozuna, E. Suarez
|
| 4:38 |
: Suarez and Ozuna
|
| 4:38 |
: Can I keep it up? I’m 33 and my Aug/Sept did not impress …
|
| 4:38 |
: Health has been a problem in recent years. And it’s telling he’s the reliever still on the market.
|
| 4:38 |
: I still like Ottavino as few pitchers are as filthy when he’s on
|
| 4:39 |
: I’m not going out of my way to pay for him unless a team signs him to close
|
| 4:39 |
: Favorite Name in the Majors right now, and all-time
|
| 4:39 |
: hmm, I know there are names I love in the league right now, but they aren’t springing to mind
|
| 4:40 |
: All time, I still regularly think about Esteban Yan and Yhency Brazoban
|
| 4:40 |
: Are we giving up on Contreras this year or is now the time to buy expecting a bounceback? He was the #2 catcher off the board last year and was replaceable and catcher is a semi replaceable position so better to just not draft it high and hopef or the best?
|
| 4:40 |
: Not giving up. Buy low. Hope for life.
|
| 4:41 |
: I generally try to find whatever catcher used to be good and sucked the previous year
|
| 4:41 |
: It’s a winning strategy
|
| 4:41 |
: I think. I seem to win with it.
|
| 4:41 |
: When you say early SP, do you mean the elite 4 or 5 pitchers?
|
| 4:41 |
: Yes
|
| 4:41 |
: Rounds 2-4
|
| 4:42 |
: Still can’t stomach a round 1 pick unless I’m picking like 11 in a 12 team draft
|
| 4:42 |
: And I don’t have any SP in my top 15 this year
|
| 4:42 |
: Is Roberts crazy enough to platoon Muncy like he did much of the WS even though his splits are fairly equal?
|
| 4:42 |
: Sigh. Yes, I think so.
|
| 4:42 |
: I’m hoping it doesn’t happen because it’s STOOOPID
|
| 4:43 |
: After Whitley, any draftable pitchers who won’t start the season in the majors?
|
| 4:43 |
: Luzardo
|
| 4:43 |
: Honeywell? Kinda depends on league depth
|
| 4:43 |
: I wouldn’t draft ANY minor leaguers in 10 team
|
| 4:43 |
: In 12 team, maybe just Whitley and Luzardo
|
| 4:43 |
: Deeper and the field opens up
|
| 4:43 |
: SO I know it’s the offseason, but is there any consideration given to you and Justin spreading out your chat days?
|
| 4:44 |
: Talk to Justin, I had first dibs on Tuesday 🙂
|
| 4:44 |
: In Ottoneu would you be keeping a $5 Tyler O’Neill and $3 Luis Urias if you already roster similarly priced Peter Alonso, Tatis, Senzel, Wander Franco, and Kyle Tucker?
|
| 4:44 |
: Might keep Urias. O’Neill is out for me.
|
| 4:44 |
: What’s the biggest mistake you made in fantasy last year?
|
| 4:45 |
: Did you miss my article about my worst trades? I dealt Betts for Altuve in dynasty.
|
| 4:45 |
: Traded albies for walker buehler. I say that as a albies fan (12 team)
|
| 4:45 |
: Great swap. Buehler is a much better talent at this time.
|
| 4:46 |
: Ottoneu 5×5 league – pitching needs help, 13$ Robles, 9$ Tatis Jr, 10$ Senzel . What type of return should I be looking for ? SP and RP are both needs
|
| 4:46 |
: Have you tried letting your rivals shape the talks? Pop them on the block, say you need pitching, and see who bites.
|
| 4:47 |
: In general, I avoid committing resources to RP. They can be found cheaply if you’re diligent about scouring the wire.
|
| 4:47 |
: What should we NOT be paying attention to before opening day? What are the red herrings out there in the off-season that get players mis-valued?
|
| 4:47 |
: Players being blocked is the #1
|
| 4:48 |
: If they’re going to post fantasy relevant numbers, chances are they’ll be starting before long
|
| 4:48 |
: Some Vladito-scenarios notwithstanding
|
| 4:48 |
: The most fun mystery team that Manny Machado could sign with?
|
| 4:49 |
: Hmm… the Twins would be a great one. Push Polanco to 2B and either cut Schoop or swallow the cost. (arb salaries are mostly non-guaranteed until the start of the season)
|
| 4:49 |
: Where do you rank or put Ross Stripling? Big breakout in 2018 but Dodgers rotation circus, sustainability, and possibly innings pitched issues. I have him as a $3 keeper in a keep 7
|
| 4:50 |
: I wrote about Stripling not too long ago. I kind of doubt he’s a top 7 keeper for you though.
|
| 4:50 |
: RE my question earlier regarding the final keeper. Yes, I do have 9 stud keepers and a lot of power. I just have this feeling on Dahl that might make me choose him Gallo and Mondesi. His projections are crazy
|
| 4:51 |
: everyone seems to have feelings about Dahl. I just don’t see any evidence.
|
| 4:51 |
: Should I trade Kershaw for Buhler?
|
| 4:51 |
: How deep is the league? In 20 team dynasty, sure.
|
| 4:51 |
: In 12-team mixed, keep 5, nah
|
| 4:51 |
: 12 tm H2H keep forever btw]
|
| 4:51 |
: you anticipated me
|
| 4:52 |
: That’s a bold trade, one I think you can make for forever reasons
|
| 4:52 |
: Projections on fangraphs aren’t yet giving Garrett Hampson credit for a likely full time roll. Can I count on him for solid ratios and decent counting stats this year?
|
| 4:52 |
: I’m not projecting a full time role either
|
| 4:52 |
: I like Hampson in a general sense. The issue is the Rockies legitimately don’t let their prospects play.
|
| 4:53 |
: They have Murphy, Desmond, and McMahon in the initial mix
|
| 4:53 |
: Rodgers could enter the picture later in the season (although it’s unlikely)
|
| 4:54 |
: I’d project in the area of 300 PA
|
| 4:54 |
: If you needed IF help, would you move $9 Dahl for $7 Peraza in 5×5 Ottoneu?
|
| 4:55 |
: You can do a lot better
|
| 4:55 |
: I mean, I think that’s a reasonable swap
|
| 4:55 |
: But based on the wider impression of Dahl, you should be able to target a couple tiers higher
|
| 4:55 |
: Unless you’re specifically after SB with modest power
|
| 4:55 |
: If Hampson isn’t a full time player do you see Ryan McMahon getting set loose finally? Worth keeping around for $5 in 5×5 Ottoneu?
|
| 4:56 |
: I kinda think they’ll get jammed together is the least optimal way possible
|
| 4:56 |
: Where do you like having your trade deadline? How does it differ in roto vs. H2H, keeper vs. redraft?
|
| 4:56 |
: In H2H, I like trades to end with the regular season. Mid-September for roto. Never for keepers.
|
| 4:57 |
: So I lean towards very late deadlines
|
| 4:57 |
: Who do you like better as a keeper, $1 Aaron Hicks or $8 Matt Olson? Think it’s Hicks easily, but on the other hand 1B is surprisingly thin
|
| 4:57 |
: EZ Hicks for me too, although Olson isn’t drawing dead
|
| 4:57 |
: Maybe 20% he’s the better value
|
| 4:57 |
: $34 blackmon for 1 year or $11 castellanos for 3…standard 5×5 with 15 keepers?
|
| 4:57 |
: I’ll take Blackmon
|
| 4:57 |
: Top 5 players in a dynasty minors first year player draft?
|
| 4:58 |
: Vlad, Robles (if he counts), Eloy, Royce Lewis, and Wander Franco (if it’s a deep-ish league)
|
| 4:59 |
: Tatis, Tucker, and Bichette also in the mix for me.
|
| 4:59 |
: Probably missing a name or two
|
| 5:00 |
: Outside of Vladito, in a 10-man – keep 5 forever league, are there any other players currently in the minors that would be worth keeping preseason?
|
| 5:00 |
: No
|
| 5:00 |
: I think Kevin means among prospects who were just drafted or signed. Entering their first year of pro play
|
| 5:00 |
: Oh, in that case, I do not have that information ready to hand
|
| 5:00 |
: I have them lumped in with all prospects
|
| 5:00 |
: No Robles or Eloy?
|
| 5:01 |
: Robles isn’t a top 50 player.
|
| 5:01 |
: Right now.
|
| 5:01 |
: And that’s a shallow league so I don’t care about 2021 let alone farther in the future.
|
| 5:01 |
: So easy to replace missed Eloys
|
| 5:02 |
: i need a utility infielder…12 team dynasty HTH. Do you see Asdrubal playing full time with Phil or is Wendle or Marte a better bet?
|
| 5:02 |
: Adrubal is a free agent
|
| 5:02 |
: Marte is the best bet of those you mentioned. He’s quite solid
|
| 5:02 |
: Royce Lewis or Wander Franco in an OBP dynasty league?
|
| 5:02 |
: How deep. The shallower the league, the better the relatively advanced Lewis
|
| 5:03 |
: 20 team+ take Wander
|
| 5:03 |
: In a vacuum, who do you like best in Ottoneu 4×4: $5 E. Rosario, $12 Olson, $15 Devers
|
| 5:03 |
: EZ Rosario
|
| 5:03 |
: Need to fill out a keeper roster. Aguilar, Carpenter, Castellanos, Dahl and D. Rodriguez all good to go? Especially concerned about the last two.
|
| 5:03 |
: What’s the constraint? Am I picking one? All 5?
|
| 5:03 |
: Who would u trade Sale for multiple pieces (offense + SP replacement) in a 16 team dynasty league or keep the stud ace?
|
| 5:03 |
: Usually keep. Depends on the return though
|
| 5:04 |
: NL league 5×5 – keep Tatis $7 for 2 years or Albies $1 for 1 year? will contend with either – thanks
|
| 5:04 |
: I’m pessimistic about Tatis doing anything at all in 2019, and I suspect he could be a guy who’s slow to adjust due to his high whiff rate.
|
| 5:05 |
: 16.5% SwStr in Double-A
|
| 5:05 |
: About time to start wrapping up
|
| 5:05 |
: You targeting Yusei Kikuchi this year?
|
| 5:05 |
: Yes, although I’m not going nuts with it
|
| 5:06 |
: Usually, imported players are a bad value a year after a similar guy was good
|
| 5:06 |
: and vice versa
|
| 5:06 |
: So I think Mikolas could ruin Kikuchi’s value. But I’m not seeing that happen yet.
|
| 5:06 |
: Perhaps because the Ms won’t get him wins and plan to really ratchet down his IP
|
| 5:06 |
: Pick four! Thanks…
|
| 5:06 |
: Q was: Need to fill out a keeper roster. Aguilar, Carpenter, Castellanos, Dahl and D. Rodriguez all good to go? Especially concerned about the last two.
|
| 5:07 |
: I’d dump DRod
|
| 5:07 |
: EZ
|
| 5:07 |
: Any chance I correct my HR woes while playing at NYY’s miniature ballpark?
|
| 5:07 |
: Not really
|
| 5:07 |
: I tried the “get a C who sucked the previous year” route and wound up with Lucroy last year. Oops. This year I’ve got Jansen as a keeper and several owners are trying to get him from me. Might be able to pry Senzel if I gave up Jansen and a closer like Leclerc or Buttrey. Long-term, relatively deep keeper league. I’m playing for 2020 (I have Vladito, Tatis, Wander).
|
| 5:08 |
: Big difference between prying with Leclerc (top 10 closer) and Buttrey (not definitely a closer)
|
| 5:08 |
: On a scale from 1 to trading all your shares, how concerned are you about Bregman’s elbow surgery?
|
| 5:08 |
: 0
|
| 5:08 |
: it was just loose bodies
|
| 5:09 |
: routine as possible
|
| 5:09 |
: Re: favorite name. Always thought Grant Balfour was the most ironic name for a pitcher.
|
| 5:09 |
: Josh Outman was a good ironic one too
|
| 5:09 |
: Outman had a career 1.43 WHIP
|
| 5:10 |
: I’m struggling to find comps for Scherzer with his age/durability/power stuff other than Justin Verlander. Think Scherzer’s next 600 innings will go as smoothly as Verlander’s last 600?
|
| 5:10 |
: That’s never a good bet
|
| 5:10 |
: Just take it year to year
|
| 5:10 |
: I know that’s hard in dynasty
|
| 5:10 |
: But if you’re talking redraft, then we don’t have to worry
|
| 5:10 |
: I’m going to regress. BABIP boost in 18 can’t make up for my inability to take a BB.
|
| 5:10 |
: Yes. You even regressed midway through last year
|
| 5:11 |
: 12 team keep 3. Last keeper obp not avg. mondesi or buehler (both 19th rd). Other two are trout and soto. And when will you have your article on perceived value? I spent an hour meeting for the first time a guy i have played 15 years with and our main thread was perceived value.
|
| 5:11 |
: Perceived value is a sticky subject. The FanGraphs crowd tends to give me crap for philosophizing without maths
|
| 5:12 |
: So I might save that one for the patrons.
|
| 5:12 |
: How are you viewing Ohtani in dynasty going in to this year?
|
| 5:12 |
: Mostly as a very good hitter only
|
| 5:12 |
: If he hits like he did in 2018, I have some doubts he’ll be allowed to pitch very often
|
| 5:13 |
: $53 Scherzer or $15 Soto Ottoneu fgpts?
|
| 5:13 |
: Soto…
|
| 5:13 |
: And feeling like I walked into one of those cartoon holes they cover with leaves
|
| 5:13 |
: That’s why I dealt my $4 McMahon for his $8 Luke Weaver. Hoping I traded a platoon (at best) bat for a good arm in a humidor. We’ll see.
|
| 5:13 |
: I like that bet
|
| 5:14 |
: I’m not saying anyone is going to break out like Soto just did. But if someone did this year, who’s your best bet?
|
| 5:14 |
: We’re talking a minor leaguer? Well… Vladito.
|
| 5:14 |
: 🙂
|
| 5:14 |
: Robles another solid bet. Eloy. The guys you already hear about all the time.
|
| 5:15 |
: Soto was weird in that he was a top 5 prospect whose health status incorrectly affected his ranking
|
| 5:15 |
: Best name (former red sox outfielder in 90s)
|
| 5:15 |
: 16 team keep forever up to 9. Who do you prefer Buehler or Bellinger? And how much do you lean 1 way or the other?
|
| 5:15 |
: Bellinger but I have to wonder if you’re keeping somebody you shouldn’t
|
| 5:15 |
: Those are both EZ top 40 assets
|
| 5:16 |
: or at least top 50
|
| 5:16 |
: Bellinger could be 20-25 range
|
| 5:16 |
: how do you select ottoneu arb targets?
|
| 5:16 |
: Awesome but very untimely question
|
| 5:16 |
: Ask me again next October and I’ll write you a novel.
|
| 5:17 |
: Would u trade Sale for multiple pieces (let’s say offense + SP replacement) in a 16 team dynasty league or keep the stud ace?
|
| 5:17 |
: (psst, I answer this. Not usually but maybe)
|
| 5:18 |
: Traded $1 buehler for $11 d murphy, $3 gennett, $1 dahl..all players kept for 2 more years…alright return?
|
| 5:18 |
: That’s a classic FV for PV swap
|
| 5:18 |
: Looks fine to me as long as that’s your goal
|
| 5:18 |
: And on that note, I bid you all adieu.
|
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam