Boxscore Bits: May 17th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Monday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Freddy Peralta (38 K/6 BB in L5), Sandy Alcantara, Ian Anderson, Luis Severino, Garrett Whitlock, Brad Keller, Chris Flexen 플렉센, Chris Archer (he’s just a 4 IP guy), Alex Wood (it’s fine for Coors)

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Wade Miley – Brutal season debut probably made some a bit nervous for this 2-step despite the excellent setup (v. PIT, v. ARI), but he delivered beautifully in part one.
• Tony Gonsolin – Just 2 BB was particularly nice to see here as walks have been an issue lately (13% since ’21). It still feels a bit like he’s living on a wire here and obviously a 1.64 ERA won’t maintain, but he’s an all-formats guy right now.
• Corey Kluber – Brilliant rebound from that nightmare at LAA and certainly helps alleviate the injury concerns that immediately came to the fore after that outing.
• Alex Faedo – He now has a 26% K and 17% SwStr in his last two starts after just 1 K in his MLB debut. Remember, this is a pedigreed 1st round (#18 in ’17) who was slowed by injuries, but now appears to be healthy and starting to display the skills that made him a legit prospect. He gets at CLE and v. CLE his next two starts.
• Yusei Kikuchi – It’s now 3 straight gems for Kikuchi and while he does have 3 BB in each of the last two, he has also allowed a combined 3 H in those two starts so the control issues are a lot more palatable. He gets v. CIN this weekend.
• Johnny Cueto – Look at Cueto dropping 6 scoreless with 7 Ks!!! His SwStr highlights the difference between our calculation and other sites as you’ll see 8 swinging strikes most spots and just 6 here due to foul tips not being counted. I go more with the consensus there and include ‘em, so I see a perfectly solid 10% SwStr in the strong outing. I’d probably just use his 2021 as a guide: 4.08 ERA/1.37 WHIP and stream where appropriate from there.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Jon Gray – He rebounded after an ugly 1st inning (4 H, 3 ER) and doubled his season-high in Ks with 8.
• Zach Logue – Just 4.3 IP and 2 K, but that’s perfectly in the range of outcomes for Logue against a solid MIN team, even at home. The tough part is this was actually the easier end of his 2-step with at LAA this weekend.

Injury-Shortened

• Jake Odorizzi – Odo was popping off again with just 1 ER (2 total) allowed in 5 IP with 4 Ks and 8 swinging strikes in 62 pitches. He was felled by a leg injury that required a stretcher to get him off the field. No word yet on the severity. I hope he’s OK!
• Antonio Senzatela – His back tightened up on him and he was done after 2 IP. SF probably would’ve continued singlehandedly regressing his ERA as they dropped 5 ER on him in 3.7 IP last time, raising his season mark more than a run from 3.75 to 4.88. OK, I’m kinda kicking the dude while he’s down. Wishing for a speedy recovery as he is expected to hit the IL.

Duds: The worst of the day

• Noah Syndergaard – What in the f**k was that, Kanye Thor? If you listened to College Dropout like 1000 times, then you get that reference, but seriously what wasssss that??? Thor had been pitching very well this year. His SwStr rate said the Ks were coming, too! Velo and spin rates were fine which is where we look immediately after a blow up like this, but that doesn’t guarantee there is no injury. He get TEX again next week and unless we get anything regarding his health, I’ll gladly keep him in the lineup despite brutal outing.
• Kyle Bradish – Not a great first start for those who picked him up this weekend, though 3 of his 4 ER came on Jose Trevino HR that had a .110 xBA and wasn’t exactly a smash job. He still fanned 6 and displayed some nasty stuff. I wish it’d have gone better, but I’m not too worried and will be holding him.
• Dillon Peters – Remember when I put him in WTWT yesterday? Yeah, I took it a step further and recommended a first five innings Pirates bet ON AN ACTUAL SHOW!!!! Sick life, me! Peters has now allowed 9 ER in 0.7 IP and has 19.7 scoreless surrounding those two meltdown outings.

WHITE LIGHTNING

Eli White got the start at leadoff against Thor yesterday and has started against 2 of the last 3 righties. He has led off in three straight (2 vL), too. He got his 8th SB on Monday and has 4 SBs in his last 4 games. Starting against the last two righties is encouraging, but even if he is primarily a short-side platoon, there could be enough SB juice here to make him a vintage Rajai Davis/Jarrod Dyson-type. Dyson went north of 390 PA just once in his 7 seasons with 26+ SBs (including 30+ 5x). Davis reached 430+ PA five times in his career as he found more consistent into his mid-30s, but still averaged 34 SB per 380 PA.

MINOR LEAGUE TUESDAY

Highlighting some key minor leaguers who could be the next big fantasy producers.

• Luis García | 2B, WAS – The standout prospect for the Nats hasn’t done much in 386 MLB PA 79 wRC+), but he is just 22 years old so he might’ve just not been ready yet. He is tearing the cover off the ball at Triple-A with a .354/.411/.638 line including 8 HR and 1 SB in 146 PA. Do we really need to keep doing the Alcides Escobar/Dee Strange-Gordon thing at SS in Washington?? You can add their wRC+ totals and multiply by 2 and you’re still not at league average (it’d be 94, thanks in part to DSG’s awesome -8 mark). Even if they don’t fully believe in Garcia as their shortstop of the future, there is no reason he can’t play there this year. They’re 12-25, what are they waiting for?!
• Miguel Vargas | 3B, LAD – Outside of an 89 PA stop at A-ball back in 2018 (.560 OPS), Vargas has simply raked throughout his pro career (.859) including excellent work at the high minors (.909 at AA, .915 at AAA in 535 combined PA). He is hitting .314/.418/.496 with 4 HR and 3 SB in 165 PA at Triple-A so far. Health would be his avenue in right now as Justin Turner (68 wRC+, .222 BABIP) will get plenty of room to figure things out. Edwin Ríos or Hanser Alberto would likely get the job for anything short term at 3B right now.
• Matthew Liberatore | SP, STL – The lefty hurler was the main return for Randy Arozarena and he has logged another solid 40 IP at Triple-A (3.83 ERA/1.20 WHIP/21% K-BB) after a strong effort there last year, having skipped Double-A entirely (4.04 ERA/1.25 WHIP/17% K-BB in 124.7 IP). Fastball command will likely drive his career. If he continues to sharpen it and gets to an above average level, he could be a #2 (loosely a sub-4.00 SIERA guy for 28-30 starts per season), but if it continues to lag below average, he will likely be a firm #4 (mid-4.00s SIERA as a full-time SP) with spurts of looking like a #3 (mid-3s/low-4s SIERA). There obviously other traits that go into SP rankings than just their SIERA, but that gives you a shorthand. Plenty of time for the 22-year-old to be something special.
• Hayden Wesneski | NYY, SP – Wesneski doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of Liberatore, but he has put himself on the map after a three-level campaign last year that saw him post a 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 22% K-BB rate in 130.3 IP (36.3 at A+, 83 at AA, 11 at AAA) and he has followed it up with another strong 35 at Triple-A this year: 2.31 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 23% K-BB. The Yankees rotation doesn’t exactly scream “stability!” so opportunities will arise. Wesneski is out-pitching the more known pitching prospects Triple-A including Deivi García and Luis Gil, the latter of whom was already on the 40-man which is probably part of why he was given a spot start over Wesneski last week despite his 15% BB and 9.53 ERA in 17 AAA IP.

DRAFTKINGS GAME

• I do a few DraftKings games throughout the week and I’ve got a $5 gm setup for Friday if you’re interested, click here!!

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Tuesday, May 17th:

• I love watching Shane McClanahan pitch, though I’m a bit less excited to see him carve up my favorite team
• Can Beau Brieske start to show some swing-and-miss ability?
• Mike Clevinger has yet to look great, but he’s reached 90+ pitches in both outing
• Would yet another gem put Connor Overton on the radar?
• If Cody Poteet looks overmatched, it could clear runway for Edward Cabrera or Max Meyer
• José Urquidy v. Nathan Eovaldi – two long-time Sporer faves!
• Johnny Vander Meer’s name makes it’s first visit of the year as Reid Detmers follows up his no-hitter
• Who’d have thought Merrill Kelly 켈리 v. Tyler Anderson would be such an appealing matchup because of them and not the hitting they allow?
• Can José Berríos get on track?