Boxscore Bits: May 13th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Thursday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Zack Wheeler, JT Brubaker

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• There wasn’t a ton of draft season hype for Luis Garcia and yet after a second straight 9-K effort, he has a 28% K rate to go with a 7% BB rate, 2.94 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 33.7 IP. His ERA indicators reside in the mid-3.00s and that’d be fine from here on out: 3.50-3.75 ERA, sub-1.20 WHIP, and a K-per-IP or better on a strong team that will keep his win probability high.
• Just 1 K takes some juice out of Taijuan Walker’s Thursday afternoon outing. He still has a 12% SwStr on the season and considering that he had just 7 spring IP and 11 more prior to Thursday, it’s clear he is still ramping up so let’s appreciate the great outing sans the Ks and keep an eye on him to make sure he starts missing more bats going forward.
• Steven Matz has allowed 20 ER this year, 15 of them in 2 outings and it will take some time to work those off. Of course, he has to avoid another such meltdown as well. It was a solid rebound on Thursday and has him on the right foot for an at NYM/at PIT 2-step next week.
• We have seen flashes from Taylor Hearn all year and he finally cut into his hideous .417 BABIP on Thursday with just 1 H allowed in 5 IP. Walks remain a persistent issue and I’m not sure I could confidently start him in anything but the deepest of leagues, especially with an LAA/at HOU 2-step next week.
• Connor Overton is a 28-year-old journeyman for the worst team in the league with 8 Ks and 6 BB in his 17 IP of work so far, but I have to acknowledge the 6.3 scoreless innings! Now, I will stop short of suggesting he is rostered in really any format, but I will tip my cap for the strong outing, even if it was just at PIT. He has faced them twice, but also went 5.3 IP/1 ER in Coors back in late-April. The 1 K keeps it short of a true gem, but let’s let Connor have some shine.

Decent Enough

• James Kaprielian – While he couldn’t repeat his 7 Ks from last time out, it was another strong outing as the oft-injured righty builds himself up after missing all of Spring Training. He gets MIN at home next week, a viable start in 15-teamers.
• Beau Brieske – Credit again to Brieske for griding out a solid start after allowing 3 in the first inning. In fact, he has had a knack for settling down with a 7.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in the first two innings (36 batters faced) of his four starts and then a 1.38 ERA/1.00 WHIP from the 3rd on (51 BF). I’m still just not seeing enough swing-and-miss to really recommend in anything but maybe AL-Only leagues. Alex Faedo should take that role and relegate Brieske back to spot starter/Triple-A.

Duds

• Dylan Cease – The 11 Ks keep it from being a mega dud, but 13.50 ERA and 2.00 WHIP is still a dud. I’m not worried about a rough start against a good opponent. It happens.
• Tyler Anderson – Just as the trust in Anderson was starting to really soar, he gets touched up for 7 ER on 10 H. He still went 6 IP and even notched 5 Ks, but this one stung even considering the difficult opponent in the Phillies.
• Josh Winder – Excitement would’ve gone through the roof with a gem v. HOU. Alas, he suffered his first real dud as they ran up his pitch count and had him out after 77 pitches (3.3 IP). I’m not overreacting nor am I close to cutting him with a trip to OAK on tap next week.
• Luis Gil – The uninspired Triple-A line (9.53 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 15% BB, 2.7 HR/9) made this call-up a bit surprising and he certainly didn’t do anything to make it less He missed some bats but was otherwise knocked around as expected.

FRIDAY FAAB

Heading to the weekend, I’ll give a few names to consider in FAAB for the weekend. I will try to give a name or two for many league sizes:

Shallow

• Harrison Bader | STL, OF (43% Y!, 29% ESPN) – His roster rate is higher than the last time I recommended him in this space back in mid-April (23% Y!, 26% ESPN), but it’s still too low for the 23rd ranked OF (per Razzball Player Rater). He is hitting .242 which is actually a positive for his value along with 3 HR and 7 SB (tied for 4th-most). Bader is still stuck in the bottom third of the lineup, but he plays virtually everyday and could wind up with a 15 HR/30 SB-type season.
• Andrés Giménez | CLE, 2B/SS (48% Y!, 20% ESPN) – Speaking of power/speed, Giménez has been electric so far with a .333/.345/.543 line including 3 HR and 2 SB in 84 PA. His plate skills aren’t great with a 22% K and 2% BB rate and the .400 BABIP is certainly helping him, but he can hit .250 with 10 HR/25 SB from here on out qualifying at both middle infield positions.

Medium

• Kyle Bradish | BAL, SP (2% OC) – Bradish’s gem at St. Louis (7 IP/2 ER/11 K) will earn him some attention this weekend, especially with a 2-step on the horizon. Both are at home, but he faces NYY and TB, so there is definitely some risk. There are some skills here and Baltimore’s wall change has made it more of a pitcher’s park. The Yankees are definitely scary so I’m open to treating him as a team streamer as opposed to a standard streamer that you’d just cut after getting some starts.
• Gavin Sheets | CWS, UT (6% OC) – A pair of home runs this week puts Sheets back into focus and he plays daily against righties. They do have two lefties this weekend so he might sit in both of those, but they have an 8-gm week with 7 righties next week.

Deep

• Edwin Ríos | LAD, 3B (2% ME) – Ríos has been the DH in each of the last 3 games for LA and he’s got 2 HR and 7 RBI in his last 4 games. He also has a 38% K rate in that span and 41% on the year. He has a 31% K rate and 9% BB rate for his career and that would be manageable if he was around those levels and playing regularly. Playing time is definitely the question, though Justin Turner has a 65 wRC+, but they won’t just quit him after 29 games. It’s an all-or-nothing profile and he will likely only play against righties so this is a deep league play only.
• Brock Burke | TEX, RP (13% ME) – Burke has settled in as the multi-inning RP for the Rangers and he is piling up strikeouts (27 in 18.7 IP) with excellent ratios (1.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and some sneaky wins (3). This player type can be more useful than pickup a Humberto Castellanos-type starter. In fact, Burke has more Ks (27 to 16) and Ws (3 to 2) than Castellanos in 6 fewer IP.

OC = NFBC Online Championship (12-tms)

ME = NFBC Main Event (15-tms)

DRAFTKINGS GAME

• I do a few DraftKings games throughout the week and I’ve got a $5 gm setup for Friday if you’re interested click here!! You can also add me at pjs24 and then you’ll get invites every time we play (usually 2-4x a wk).

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Friday, May 13th:

• Tyler Mahle gets a 2nd straight start v. PIT
• Corbin Burnes v. Pablo Lopez should be fun
• Will HOU expose Josiah Gray’s HR issue?
• Kevin Gausman v. Drew Rasmussen could be a gem if Ras can deliver 5+
• If Vince Velasquez does well here, I’ll give him some consideration… I’m not expecting it, though
• I wasn’t in on Jordan Hicks during draft season, but he’s being cut a lot now so I’m keeping tabs; if he goes 5 strong here, he’ll be a major pickup
• Kyle Gibson has been excellent this year and gets a shot to show it’s real w/a trip to LAD