Boxscore Bits: May 12th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Wednesday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Jameson Taillon, José Urquidy (susp. due to weather), Nathan Eovaldi, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Ian Anderson, Logan Gilbert, Miles Mikolas, Chris Archer (tough to grade him w/the susp.)

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• While neither Shane McClanahan nor Shohei Ohtani were around for the decision, the matchup did not disappoint. McClanahan was excellent against the league’s best lineup by runs scored (164) and wRC+ (125). Ohtani, meanwhile, continues to make it a difficult decision whether you should use him as a hitter or pitcher each week. The decision can be made based on what your team needs most as there is no wrong answer (3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 41 Ks in 26.3 IP; .258 AVG, 6 HR, 4 SB in 135 PA).
• Sandy Alcantara hasn’t had the K spike that his proponents (like me) have suggested, but he still has plenty of swing-and-miss stuff (12% SwStr). One of the reasons I like him so much was the volume and the fact that the volume could mitigate the need for his strikeout rate to surge in order for him to be a fantasy ace. His 37 Ks are tied for 10th most and the 2.74 ERA/1.22 WHIP are perfectly solid.
• Zach Logue came over in the Matt Chapman deal and looks like a standard issue solid-but-unspectacular lefty OAK arm who can leverage their great park into some quality work. Think Cole Irvin (3.90 ERA/1.28 WHIP at home; 4.57/1.38 road) last year as an upside. He does setup for a 2-step next week, but it’s not easy v. MIN and at LAA.
• Alex Cobb’s fastball was down about 1 mph 93.5 mph, but it didn’t stop him from a strong outing. His SwStr rate has now been at 8% in three of his five starts – well, 1 was the injury-shortened one v. WAS that lasted less than an inning – but in the other two, he still has 10 Ks in 9.7 IP. It’s always about health with Cobb. I’m not entirely averse to starting him at COL next week, but if I have options to avoid it, I will.

MLB Debut

• Ryan Pepiot lived up to his scouting report in his a 3-inning spot start: 1 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, and 3 K. He was primarily fastball (55-grade)/changeup (70-grade) with terrible command (40-grade). This was a spot start, but they have a doubleheader next Tuesday against Arizona so he could get another look. Even if that start becomes guaranteed, I wouldn’t go much beyond a $1-3 bid in deeper formats.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Keegan Thompson – They gave him a true start and he reached 4 IP with a season-high 61 pitches. While he only struck out 1, I’m still keeping tabs on Thompson as they continue to stretch him out. He has a 1.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the season with 21% K and 12% SwStr. Fpr fantasy purposes, I’d rather they give him an opener until he is ready for 5+ IP, but I understand the Cubs don’t actually care about our fantasy teams and they feel he is stretched out enough for traditional starts even if they fall short of 5 IP.
• Bailey Falter – He was sent down to get stretched out a bit with 37- and 40-pitch appearances before returning for this start. He was quite good here (12% SwStr, 34% CSW), but I’m not sure he is more than a 2-4 IP guy and this was only a spot start with Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin on the COVID IL.
• I feel like I see every good Dillon Peters outing and then I go look at his composite numbers and I’m like “Oh… that’s it?”, at least with respect to his 9% K-BB. His 1.83 ERA and 0.71 WHIP are fantastic. I guess I have seen most of his good work as he put up 3.3 scoreless against my Tigers, 3 no-hit innings against the Brewers in a game I was watching for Eric Lauer, and then yesterday’s outing against the Dodgers because I wanted to see Pepiot. His velo is up 2 ticks, but it isn’t yielding much a skills boost and the comedown on that .109 BABIP will be painful if the 9% K-BB doesn’t improve.

Duds: The worst of the day

• Tylor Megill – Velo and spin are usually where we go to after an outing like, but his was fine. There has been some talk of pitch-tipping, too. Whatever it was, it sucked, but I’m not cutting Megill off this. It erased most of good ERA work he’d done, but he still has a 1.13 WHIP, 37 Ks in 34.7 IP, and 4 Ws.
• Joey Wentz – This will likely put him behind Alex Faedo and Beau Brieske in terms of fill-in starters. Faedo has a substantial lead and should overtake Brieske is Brieske can’t handle the A’s on Thursday afternoon.
• Chad Kuhl – We knew a crash was coming, we just figured it’d be in Coors. Of course, the Giants are no joke even with their park playing less pitcher-friendly. I just don’t know where I’d trust Kuhl enough to put him in. He gets SF at home next week. No shot.
• Adrian Houser – He still has a 3.86 ERA on the year, but Milwaukee sees the 8% K-BB and 1.42 WHIP and realize he’s living on a wire. And he’s not even getting the massive groundball rate from last year (59%) with just a 46% mark. Aaron Ashby is rostered in just 13% of Yahoo! leagues and 8% of ESPN leagues. That needs to go way
• José Berríos – Even with the back-to-back duds, his ERA would be 4.81 without that season opener (0.3 IP/4 ER). I’m not saying that doesn’t count, but it’s a disproportionate weight in the ERA. It’s an anomaly. These last two duds aren’t fun, but they’re nowhere near that TEX opener. Since then, he’s essentially been 3 up, 3 down, which is kinda the Berrios way. He cut back on his duds last year which aided the career-best 3.52 ERA, but he’s already had 4 this year and will likely see-saw his way back to the high 3s ERA we’re used to from him (3.60-3.90).
• Nick Martinez – A brutal 4th inning. I’m still not sure this enough to push him out of the rotation.

MULTI-HR/MULTI-SB

Guys with 2+ HR or SB over the weekend (Fri-Sun):

• Luke Voit (1, 2 HR)
• Hunter Renfroe (7, 8 HR)

STREAMER THURSDAY

A look at some available arms to stream on the weekend (10-12 team focus as those are the leagues most setup for consistent streaming).

(Starting a new segment where each day has a set theme that you can expect: M-Playing Time, T-Minors, W-RP Focus, Th-Wknd Streamers, F-FAAB Recos)

• Jakob Junis at STL on Saturday, May 14th – he was cut when he got sent out, but he’s back and in the rotation. He threw five strong against STL (3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) and gets them again in the rematch. The data suggests there is no advantage one way or another when facing a team back-to-back, regardless of the first outcome so don’t leverage that last start as the reason to go with Junis. Start him because he has a 27% K rate, 13% SwStr rate, and 51% GB rate in 15 IP so far thanks to extreme slider usage (career-high 56%).
• Tyler Wells at DET on Sunday, May 15th – starting to string some things together and DET just isn’t hitting at all.
• Drew Smyly at ARI on Friday, May 13th – health is usually the issue so I’ll take my shot in solid matchups when he’s upright.
• Tanner Houck in primary role at TEX on Sunday, May 15th – I know it’s been brutal his last 2, but I’m sticking with him!
• José Quintana v CIN on Sunday, May 15th – how bad do you need a start? If this was at CIN, I’d be terrified that the regression is coming all at once, but in PNC Park against the 30th-ranked wRC+ vLH (71) is the essence of streaming.
• Hunter Greene at PIT on Sunday, May 15th – opponent doesn’t really matter when your command is off, but this is a great setup.
• Jake Odorizzi at WAS on Saturday, May 14th – Odo is pitching well of late (v. SEA, DET), but WAS is raking lately (2nd in wRC+ vRH the L2 wks, which admittedly included a trip to Coors). Top half of their lineup is no joke, especially if Nelson Cruz is indeed waking up.
• Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 at TB on Saturday, May 14th – he is slated to return from the IL here which gives him some availability, but I’d prefer to sit him here if I bring him on just to get a better gauge of where he’s at after just 2 starts before the injury. Be careful here.

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Thursday, May 12th:

• What can Josh Winder do against a difficult HOU lineup?
• Dylan Cease has become a must-watch.
• Luis Gil was blasted in 17 AAA IP (9.53 ERA, 1.76 WHIP), but still had a 30% K and 13% SwStr so there is some effectiveness with the stuff.
• Another good Connor Overton start would be tough to ignore.
• Zack Wheeler v. Tyler Anderson is the matchup of the night. Wheeler is back in form and Anderson has been excellent so far this season.