Boxscore Bits: June 9th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Wednesday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Sandy Alcantara, Aaron Nola, Shane Bieber (rain-shortened), Sean Manaea, Tony Gonsolin, Logan Gilbert, Nathan Eovaldi, Ian Anderson, Brady Singer (solid rebound after dud v. HOU), Corey Kluber

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Merrill Kelly 켈리 – First gem for Kelly in a while. He had 5 IP/3 R (just 2 ER in one of them) in four of five outings from May 11th-June 3rd including the shellacking at LAD (2 IP/8 ER) and I’m sure there were some nerves heading into Cincy. Just 1 H and 3 BB aided Kelly to six scoreless with 5 Ks and the win, his 5th of the season. His 17 swinging strikes stood out, a season-high and his first SwStr at 10% or better over his last six starts.
• Alex Wood – Great outing for Wood despite not getting the win to go with the seven strong innings of work. It was his best start of the season and first time finishing at least 6 IP. A juicy 2-step next week v. KC and at PIT gives him a great shot to drop the ERA below 4.00 for the first time in about a month.
• Alex Faedo – Faedo has become a staple in 15-team lineups, having not allowed more than 2 ER in any of his seven starts and Wednesday’s outing being a second straight big swing-and-miss effort (18% SwStr, 7 Ks at PIT; 12%, 5 Ks v. MIN). In fact, he has been at 12% SwStr or better four of his last six, pushing his season mark to 11%. A CWS/TEX 2-step at home next week has some shallow league appeal, too.
• Josiah Gray – HR-free Gray showed up! It’s like catching an eclipse given the rarity (just his third 0 HR gm this yr). He was likely streamed quite a bit since it was a start in MIA for the electric righty (26% K, 13% SwStr). Will the great outing breed confidence to use him v. ATL and PHI at home next week?
• Johnny Cueto – Just a baseline quality start, but that gets gem status for Cueto v. LAD! He has been good in 5 starts so far with a 3.23 ERA/1.17 WHIP in 30.7 IP (just 24 Ks). He gets at DET and at HOU next week. The ultimate 2-step split with a start you desperately want and one you couldn’t want less. Is the former worth taking on the latter? I would in a 15-teamer, but I’m not sure I can get there in anything shallower.
• Mitch Keller – Back-to-back strong starts, including one against LAD (despite 5 BB). Keller took full advantage of the Tigers for his best start of the season, but how much confidence does it breed for the 2-step next week at STL and v. SF?
• Antonio Senzatela – Just his second start allowing fewer than 7 hits and the first one was injury-shortened to just 2 IP. He still allowed 6 in 6, but counterbalanced it with 6 Ks in the strong effort. Did anyone even consider streaming him, though? Probably not given his 14.7 H and 11% K rate.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Reid Detmers – I could’ve slid this one into gem status despite just 4.3 IP because it was in the midst of a 13-gm losing streak and against the remarkably tough Red Sox, but just 1 K undercuts the 0 ER.

Duds: The worst of the day from fantasy relevant arms

• Nestor Cortes – They couldn’t even get his season ERA north of 2.00! He’s fine… just a standard issue bad start.
• Chris Bassitt – This unfriendly schedule has been tough to navigate for Bassitt with a 7.62 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in his last five: STL, at SF, PHI, at LAD, at SD. I’m not too concerned about it especially with two quality starts mixed in there. The 2.4 HR/9 has been a big part of the damage, but he was at 0.8 before that which matched his 2020-21 figure so hopefully he works his way back down toward that mark.
• Yusei Kikuchi – An excellent May has been undone a bit by back-to-back duds to open June. It is particularly bad if were benching him against the tough teams and didn’t start using him until that SEA start in mid-May. In that case, these two bad starts in June has essentially erased the good word of his last three gems in May, totaling a 4.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 20.7 IP. He gets a 2-step next week v. BAL and NYY. Are you taking on the NYY risk to get the BAL start?
• Dane Dunning – CLE has been a sneaky offense against righties, sitting 8th in wRC+, as Jose Ramirez has gotten some support with some key breakouts deepening the lineup. Dunning is a standard streamer so we know the risks when we start him and this one just went south. Dunning gets HOU and at DET next week, so like Cueto there is tempting Tigers start tempered by the very dangerous Astros one. I’d take the shot Dunning in 15-teamers, but I’d be a bit more open to it in 12s and shallower because he has quite a bit more swing-and-miss this year (Dunning: 23% K, 11% SwStr; Cueto: 19% K, 7% SwStr).
• Adrian Houser – The occasional 5+ ER dud is part of the package with such a high contact profile. I’m not sure many expected him to repeat the 3.22 ERA from last year and his current 3.92 is much more in line with expectations.
• José Urquidy – I’m not sure we need to hold Urq in any format that isn’t an AL-Only right now. If you are riding it out in a deeper mixed league, I hope he is at least on your bench. He has been so hittable this year, posting a 12.4 H/9 which is exacerbated by a horrendous 1.8 HR/9. His already mediocre K rate (21% coming into this yr) is even worse at just 17% right now. While I am a long-time Urq fan, this has been too difficult to ride out with him in the lineup.
• Mike Minor – It’s been 2 bad starts so far with an unsurprising 5 HR given his new home park, buuuutttt I just want to keep him on the radar in case he has some streamer appeal once he’s fully stretched out and looking more like himself. Starts on the road or 2-steps with lower tier teams like PIT or CHC at home could be appealing down the line.

A GIANT PROBLEM

I had somebody ask me in my chat yesterday why so many Giants were underperforming their ERA indicators (SIERA, FIP, xERA, etc…), suggesting it couldn’t just be coincidence. I knew about the Alexes (Wood & Cobb, especially Cobb) struggling with their ERAs despite excellent skills under the hood but didn’t realize it was a teamwide issue. And then I found the reason… or at least a major reason. Their defense is terrible. The Phillies always get blasted for their awful defense, but I feel like the Giants slide a bit despite the two teams being 29th (SF at -25) and 30th (PHI at -28) in Defensive Runs Saved. The Giants aren’t doing much better with Outs Above Average, either.

I wonder how much of the struggles are tied to their extreme platooning, moving a couple guys in and out of the lineup on a near day-to-day basis. Or maybe it is just that they are an old team and defense is rarely going to be a strong suit of an aged club like this? Only the Yankees top their 30.3 average age on offense (30.5 for NYY), though their defense isn’t nearly as bad so maybe SF’s struggles aren’t just due to age. Even with the poor defensive support, the bulk of their rotation has remained plenty viable in ERA (Junis 2.51, Rodon 3.51, Webb 3.82, and Wood 4.23) so I’m not sure there is anything super actionable here, but I did want to highlight the struggles in case anyone else was noticing the issues in San Francisco.

STREAMER THURSDAY

A look at some available arms to stream on the weekend.

• Tylor Megill at LAA on Friday – Just putting him here to remind y’all to check your wire because he did drop to 72% on Yahoo! and 61% on ESPN so there is more than just dead league availability.
• Spencer Strider v. PIT on Friday – He’s 36% at Yahoo! and 14% at ESPN which isn’t too surprising because those sites cater to shallower formats and it’s hard to justify a sub-5 IP guy in 10s and 12s. He did reach a season-high 87 pitches last time out so perhaps he can finally reach the 5 IP mark this time out?
• Roansy Contreras at ATL on Friday – I know we don’t often go for PIT SPs, but the young righty has three straight strong starts since being recalled, all of which reached 5 IP. He has allowed just 2 ER with 16 Ks and 5 BB in the 15.7 IP of work. I’m not just streaming Contreras but also holding beyond this start with at STL and v. CHC slated for his next two starts.
• Jeffrey Springs at MIN on Sunday – Still quite available (57% Y!, 28% ESPN) despite reaching or exceeding 5 IP in each of his last four starts en route to a 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 25 Ks in 22.7 IP.
• Ross Stripling at DET on Sunday – Strip will be in the rotation with Ryu out and should be a solid pickup for 15s and perhaps even 12s if he can tap into that 12% SwStr for some more strikeouts (just 20% so far this year in 37 IP). He does get NYY next week so this is a one-and-done for now, but consider reserving him in 15s or deeper instead of outright cutting him.
• Glenn Otto at CWS on Friday – Did you know that the White Sox are 28th in wRC+ against righties at 79? Their 20% K rate is 28th as well so we probably won’t see a ton of Ks from Otto, but 5-6 solid IP wouldn’t surprise me at all.
• Edward Cabrera at HOU on Sunday – Difficult matchup, but Cabrera’s upside is so rich that I’d consider scooping him in the shallower formats where he is available and at least stashing him even if you don’t want this Astros start. He gets a start v. NYM next week so the schedule doesn’t exactly loosen up. His huge walk rate (15% in 38.3 career IP) will make him volatile, but the whiff upside keeps him appealing (24% K, 12% SwStr).
• Bruce Zimmerman/Tyler Wells at KC on Friday/Saturday – Both Orioles arms have shown some positive signs this year and made themselves viable streamers. A great matchup in a great park here. I prefer Wells between the two with his 1.07 WHIP as neither miss many bats.
• Daniel Lynch/Brad Keller v. BAL on Saturday/Sunday – Lynch’s ERA has climbed to 5.36 with a hideous 1.54 WHIP. I would still be open to this start based on BAL having the 2nd-highest K rate against lefties at 26% while sitting 25th in wRC+ at 86. Lynch is high-risk/high-reward while Keller is more of a high floor pick. He will probably go 5-6 IP w/2-4 ER and I realize that ranges from a 3.00 ERA to a 7.20 ERA, but the margins between those two are pretty small in a single game.
• Nick Martinez v. COL on Sunday – The Rockies on the road… that’s pretty much all I need if the pitcher is even close to competent.
• Ryan Feltner at SD on Saturday – He got hit up in his last start (6 ER v. ATL) but had posted a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 17 IP before that. This won’t be an easy matchup, but this is for my Hail Mary streamers out there looking to spike a gem outta nowhere.