Boxscore Bits: June 3rd, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Thursday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Sandy Alcantara, Nestor Cortes, Alek Manoah, Corey Kluber, Sean Manaea, Alex Wood, Alex Faedo (5 Ks after 4 in is L2 combined), Taijuan Walker, Adrian Houser

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Jameson Taillon – Back-to-back 8-inning gems and no more than 3 ER in any of his 10 outings this year have Taillon’s ERA down at 2.30 along with an amazing 0.90 WHIP thanks in large part to his MLB-best 2% BB rate. He also leads the league with 6 wins. Why is still available in 25% of Yahoo! leagues and 33% of ESPN leagues?! That doesn’t just account for dead leagues, either, that means he is available in leagues where absolutely shouldn’t be given his performance thus far. He is a full-time starter for me right now in all formats.
• Tony Gonsolin – Gonsolin is having a Taillonian season of his own, notching his 6th win last night and having not even allowed 3 ER in a start yet, let alone eclipsing that mark. He counters Taillon’s league leading walk rate with an MLB-best 4.9 H/9 in 51 IP. Gonso’s control was a major issue last year (14% BB) and started out rough (13% thru 3) before smoothing out to a very palatable 7% in his last 7 starts. I just wanted to highlight how great he’s been and how similar it’s been to Taillon, otherwise he will be in Biz As Usual going forward barring a real dud or some sort of double-digit K outing.
• Graham Ashcraft – An extreme groundballer (63%), Ashcraft has found some early success with a 1.53 ERA/0.96 WHIP in 17.7 IP. The 6% K-BB and 7% SwStr really tamp down the excitement and it’s hard to ignore how well his LOB (90%) and BABIP (.200) have gone and how they absolutely will not sustain. He did have a 12% SwStr and 23% K at Double- and Triple-A in 105 IP since last year. He will be on the FAAB radar in deeper leagues this week with the early success and a 2-step on the horizon v. ARI and at STL.
• Chris Archer – He reached 5 innings!! Of course, he still didn’t get the win and only needed 57 pitches to get there, but let’s not be negative. He gets a 2-step at SEA and at MIN the week of June 13th (I’m focusing on that since he is always a difficult start in a 1-start week). It’s not an easy decision for the deep leagues where he has some relevance as I’m just not sure there’s enough upside with such a low win probability and his Ks down at 19%. I’m a big fan of his, but they just seem to have him capped at 4 IP for the most apart (or about a 70-75 pitch count).

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Ian Anderson – With the Coors Degree of Difficulty factored in, this isn’t the worst. Yes, the 5 ER and 11 base runners in 6 IP sting, buuuuttt he salvaged it a bit with 9 Ks and a win!
• Keegan Thompson – That’s now 4 straight wins in three starts and a 3-inning relief outing. He has a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 18.3 IP in that time and has been stretched out to be a consistent 5-inning guy. He hit a new season high last night with 89 pitches.
• Reid Detmers – There have been positives within the 9 starts, but there just isn’t enough reliability to make him a consistent start in anything but the deepest formats. With BOS and at LAD scheduled for his next two starts, I’m even open to cutting Detmers in 15s if I need the spot. There is upside, but it just hasn’t actualized this year and with a 17% K and 9% SwStr rate, I’m not sure it will to any sort of degree where you would greatly regret cutting him.

Duds: The worst of the day

• Shohei Ohtani – He probably doesn’t love pitching in Yankee Stadium with 11 ER in 3.7 IP in his two starts there. Prior to his last two outings, the hitter/pitcher decision each week with him was increasingly difficult and while I’m not letting these outings take me off him as a starter entirely, I just have such a hard time not playing a 30 HR/20 SB batter (35 HR/22 SB pace).
• Matthew Liberatore – He just doesn’t have the fastball command to succeed at the big league level right now.
• Jordan Lyles – That’s back-to-back duds now (35, 32 Game Score) after opening May with 5 starts of 3.31 ERA and 0.77 WHIP across 32.7 IP. He hosts CHC next week and I could see streaming him, but there is always a severe risk with him.

COMBO MEALS

Shoutout to ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast for coming up with the “combo meal” term when guys get a HR and SB in the same game. Here are yesterday’s combo meals:

• Kyle Farmer 5th HR, 3rd SB – He is blazing hot right now with a .452/.489/.810 line including 4 HR and 1 SB in his last 46 PA.

STREAMER THURSDAY

A look at some available arms to stream on the weekend.

There was no BB yesterday, but I didn’t want to miss out on weekend streamers.

• Merrill Kelly 켈리 at PIT on Friday – He is now available in more than half in Yahoo! and ESPN leagues after a rough patch, but I’d take a shot at the Pirates (even though they owned the Dodgers out of nowhere!).
• Aaron Ashby v. SD on Saturday – Plenty of shallow league availability (60% Y!, 27% ESPN) and I’m aim to remedy that with a pickup and hold. There is still a good bit of risk with Ashby, a risk worth taking for his rich upside.
• Brady Singer v. HOU on Friday – Difficult matchup, but he’s pitching brilliantly and gets the backing of his favorable home park. I’m willing to take the risk here.
• Roansy Contreras v. ARI on Saturday – Pretty much the same as Ashby but in a worse context for wins.
• Glenn Otto v. SEA on Saturday – Otto has rebounded well from the 8 ER thrashing from BOS (which no one should’ve been starting anyway) with a 2.12 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 17 IP at HOU, at LAA, and v. TB.
• Tyler Wells v. CLE on Saturday – Let’s see if he can stay hot after just 2 ER in 11 IP at NYY and at BOS in back-to-back starts!
• Rich Hill at OAK on Sunday – There is still a good shot he doesn’t go 5, but he shouldn’t blast you.

FRIDAY FAAB

Heading to the weekend, I’ll give a few names to consider in FAAB for the weekend. I will try to give a name or two for many league sizes:

Shallow

• Christopher Morel | CHC, OF (52% Y!, 12% ESPN) – That is a wild disparity in roster rate between the major outlets, but even the Yahoo! one could stand to jump. Morel is leading off consistently for the Cubs, bouncing between 2B and OF. He already has 6 SBs (plus 2 caught, so 8 attempts in just 16 gms) and a 14% BB rate has his OBP up at .375 so far. Even if he turns out to be more of a flash in the pan, there is enough here to jump on board and see where the ride goes.

Medium

• Mitch White | LAD, SP (7% OC) – White reached the 5 IP milestone in his latest outing with 7 Ks and 3 ER against the Pirates. He will likely live in the 75-85 pitch range for a bit (if not permanently), but he should continue to get starts while Kershaw and Heaney work their way back (both nearing rehab stints). And even if he is pushed out upon their return (he will be barring another opening being created) (why do I have so many parentheticals in this one?) he will be their next guy up as needs arise so could even be a worthy stash beyond that.

Deep

• Konnor Pilkington | CLE, SP (0% ME) – Pilk turned heads a bit with 5 shutout innings his last time out including 8 Ks and 17 swinging strikes in his 91-pitch gem. With Aaron Civale nowhere near back, Pilk will be a rotation staple for the foreseeable future and he will be in focus this weekend after the big gem and a 2-step v. TEX and v. OAK. A trip to COL or LAD awaits him the week after, though, so don’t plan too far ahead with him just yet.

OC = NFBC Online Championship (12-tms)

ME = NFBC Main Event (15-tms)

DRAFTKINGS GAME

• I do a few DraftKings games throughout the week and I’ve got a $5 gm setup for Friday if you’re interested, click here to join!!