Boxscore Bits: June 28th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Monday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Kevin Gausman, Jordan Montgomery, Tyler Anderson (it’s fine for Coors assuming you even started him), Tyler Wells (more low-K excellence: 2.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14% K in his last 37 IP), Erick Fedde

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Chad Kuhl – Wow, factoring in degree of difficulty in both opponent and venue, this is an excellent start! He wasn’t overly dominant with just 5 Ks on 7 swinging strikes, and he did allow nine Hard Hits, but I don’t want to pick too many nits on this one. Doing this in Coors against the Dodgers is excellent. I want to be in on Kuhl because I was a big fan in Pittsburgh, but with half his games in Coors, I just can’t get behind rostering him in anything but NL Only leagues.
• Adam Wainwright – Great outing after a couple mediocre starts. The 40-year-old is right in line with his 2021 excellence. He doesn’t have a great strikeout rate, but his volume makes up for it as his 76 Ks are tied for the 21st-most in the league.
• Sonny Gray – Gray feels a bit overlooked these days. His injury risk brings a discount during draft season while his production remains consistently good. He won’t maintain a 2.17 ERA, but he has a 3.33 ERA and 3.84 SIERA since 2019 and I use that as my guideline for expectations.
• Noah Syndergaard – The 7 Ks are the real takeaway here. His 3.86 ERA/1.18 WHIP have been the thrust of his value as he has just a 17% K rate. He is up to 22% over his last 3 starts which is living up to his 11% SwStr rate more. I’m sticking with Thor even though he’s clearly not getting back to peak Thor this year (if ever again).
• Lucas Giolito – I was comfortable sitting Giolito this week despite a 2-step. His inconsistency with his entire arsenal has saddled him with a 1.9 HR/9 and he has at LAA/at SF on the docket. If you decided to stick with him, you feel great after this outing! A HR-free outing with a 16% SwStr rate (up from 7% in his last 2 starts) drove his best start in a month.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Martín Pérez – The 6 IP/4 ER works with 6 Ks and a win, but the tough part of the 2-step is looming with a trip to the Mets this weekend. I still see more natural regression and think he’s a low-4.00s guy the rest of the way.
• Paul Blackburn – Another dicey 2-step because it started at NYY, but he survived (5 IP/3 ER) and even had 7 Ks. He gets a trip to SEA this weekend to complete the pair of starts.

Duds: The worst of the day from fantasy relevant arms

• George Kirby – The worst outing of his career with 4 HRs, but I’m really not getting worked up. It’s just a bad start. Velo was fine and he still had a 12% SwStr rate.
• Triston McKenzie – Back-to-back duds against MIN (13 ER in 10.3 IP) have pushed his ERA from 2.96 to 4.03. Sometimes regression is gradual and other times it’s more severe like this. I still think he is a strong bet to finish with a sub-4.00 ERA.
• Pablo López – Two duds in his last three, but I can’t say I’m actually worried. We knew the 2.30 ERA wasn’t going to last and his regression has been pretty standard. He still has 10 Ks and 2 BB in the two bad starts but 3 HR and 14 H have done him in.

MINOR LEAGUE TUESDAY

Highlighting some key minor leaguers who could be the next big fantasy producers.

• David Villar | IF, SFG – Villar is a 25-year-old showing off some major power at Double- and Triple-A the last two seasons with 40 HR in 700 PA, increasing his ISO from .231 last year to .356 this year. The pop comes with major swing-and-miss that includes a 28% K rate at Triple-A after a 25% last year in Double-A. My major question is whether or not he can hit righties lest he fall into a short-side platoon role. Eric sees him as a corner infielder despite some work at 2B this year. He does lead all of Triple-A with 20 HR so while there is some major AVG risk, the power could be enough for immediate fantasy success once he gets the call.
• Hunter Brown | P, HOU – Brown could be up in a hybrid role any moment now. He’s in his second tour of Triple-A and doing even better than last year despite a jump in BB rate (+2 to 12%). The 8-point jump in K rate is more than covering the extra walks. He literally has 22 scoreless innings as a reliever (36% K, 6% BB, 0.73 WHIP), but he has held his own as a starter with a 4.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 33% K, and 14% BB in 38.7 IP. Obviously, the elevated walk rate is a problem as a starter. I see the Astros utilizing him in a multi-inning role out of the bullpen to start his career. It will likely depend on the spot that opens once they call him up. Brown was 95th on the Top 100 with a future as a 4th-5th starter or elite reliever.

DRAFTKINGS GAME

• I do a few DraftKings games throughout the week and I’ve got a $5 gm setup for Tuesday if you’re interested: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/128274404