Boxscore Bits: June 27th, 2022

Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the pitchers from the weekend’s games:

FOR STARTERS

The Weekend’s SPs
# Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
1 Germán Márquez COL 7.2 3 0 0 0 5 2 29 0.00 1.04 1 96.2 95.1 3%
2 Kyle Hendricks CHC 7.1 5 0 0 0 1 6 27 0.00 0.82 1 86.5 86.4 10%
3 Cristian Javier HOU 7 0 0 0 0 1 13 23 0.00 0.14 1 94.3 17%
4 Spencer Strider ATL 6 5 0 0 0 0 7 23 0.00 0.83 0 98.1 15%
5 Logan Webb SFG 6 2 1 0 0 2 6 23 0.00 0.67 1 92.7 92.6 10%
6 Chris Archer MIN 5 1 0 0 0 1 5 17 0.00 0.40 1 93.6 10%
7 Spenser Watkins BAL 5 5 1 0 0 1 4 21 0.00 1.20 1 90.5 15%
8 MacKenzie Gore SDP 5 3 0 0 0 4 4 22 0.00 1.40 0 93.1 8%
9 Jack Flaherty STL 2 1 0 0 0 2 2 11 0.00 1.50 0 92 90.7 10%
10 Andrew Wantz LAA 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0.00 0.00 0 93.1 23%
11 Brett Martin TEX 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 5 0.00 3.00 0 94.4 6%
12 Dylan Cease CHW 7 4 1 1 1 1 13 26 1.29 0.71 1 97.9 20%
13 Shane McClanahan TBR 7 4 1 1 0 0 10 25 1.29 0.57 1 96.3 19%
14 Aaron Nola PHI 7 7 1 1 0 2 10 28 1.29 1.29 0 93.2 93.3 16%
15 Gerrit Cole NYY 7 4 1 1 1 2 8 26 1.29 0.86 0 98.5 13%
16 Justin Verlander HOU 7 4 1 1 1 1 3 27 1.29 0.71 1 95.5 11%
17 José Urquidy HOU 7 1 1 1 1 3 3 24 1.29 0.57 0 93.8 8%
18 Julio Urías LAD 6 3 1 1 0 2 9 23 1.50 0.83 1 93.2 19%
19 Miles Mikolas STL 6 4 1 1 0 1 9 23 1.50 0.83 0 93.9 93 8%
20 Rich Hill BOS 6 5 1 1 0 4 5 24 1.50 1.50 1 89.6 7%
21 Dane Dunning TEX 6 7 1 1 0 1 4 25 1.50 1.33 0 89.3 10%
22 Zack Greinke KCR 6 3 1 1 0 0 4 21 1.50 0.50 1 90.2 90.4 8%
23 Jackson Tetreault WSN 6 4 1 1 0 2 4 23 1.50 1.00 1 95.1 7%
24 Dylan Bundy MIN 6 4 1 1 0 2 2 23 1.50 1.00 0 89.1 89.8 8%
25 Tony Gonsolin LAD 5.2 5 1 1 0 2 5 23 1.59 1.24 0 92.7 7%
26 Paolo Espino WSN 5.1 6 1 1 1 1 3 23 1.69 1.31 0 88.5 9%
27 Rony García DET 5.1 3 1 1 0 2 3 21 1.69 0.94 1 92 92 6%
28 Patrick Sandoval LAA 5 8 1 1 1 2 6 25 1.80 2.00 0 93.3 93.7 12%
29 Roansy Contreras PIT 5 4 1 1 0 5 4 23 1.80 1.80 0 95.8 9%
30 Graham Ashcraft CIN 8 6 2 2 1 0 8 30 2.25 0.75 1 97.5 96.4 9%
31 Josiah Gray WSN 7 4 2 2 1 1 9 26 2.57 0.71 0 94.5 18%
32 David Peterson NYM 7 4 2 2 1 0 8 25 2.57 0.57 0 92.7 92.9 12%
33 Daniel Castano MIA 7 5 2 2 1 2 4 28 2.57 1.00 0 90.9 88.5 8%
34 Nick Pivetta BOS 7 9 2 2 1 0 4 29 2.57 1.29 1 94 4%
35 Max Fried ATL 6.2 6 2 2 0 1 9 26 2.70 1.05 0 94.5 93.9 15%
36 Alek Manoah TOR 6.2 5 2 2 1 3 6 27 2.70 1.20 1 94.5 93.7 7%
37 Marco Gonzales SEA 6 5 2 2 1 4 5 27 3.00 1.50 0 88.5 87.6 12%
38 Austin Voth BAL 3 1 1 1 0 2 3 12 3.00 1.00 0 94.1 19%
39 Corey Kluber TBR 5.1 5 2 2 1 0 6 21 3.38 0.94 0 87.2 88.5 16%
40 Josh Winckowski BOS 5.1 6 2 2 0 1 4 22 3.38 1.31 1 94.4 94 7%
41 Corbin Burnes MIL 7.2 5 3 3 2 2 9 30 3.52 0.91 1 96.5 96.8 15%
42 Adrian Sampson 샘슨 CHC 5 4 2 2 0 2 5 21 3.60 1.20 0 93 92.9 13%
43 Cal Quantrill CLE 5 5 2 2 1 2 4 21 3.60 1.40 0 93.3 93.6 7%
44 Zach Eflin PHI 5 4 2 2 0 2 3 22 3.60 1.20 1 93.1 92.4 8%
45 Zach Davies ARI 5 5 3 2 0 1 2 22 3.60 1.20 0 88.7 8%
46 Chris Bassitt NYM 7 6 3 3 2 0 5 26 3.86 0.86 1 94.3 93.6 7%
47 Shane Bieber CLE 7 6 3 3 1 2 4 27 3.86 1.14 0 91.2 8%
48 Tyler Mahle CIN 6.2 4 3 3 1 1 7 25 4.05 0.75 1 92.7 11%
49 Alex Cobb SFG 4.1 5 3 2 0 1 4 20 4.15 1.38 0 94.8 13%
50 Jeffrey Springs TBR 6 7 3 3 3 0 9 25 4.50 1.17 0 91.2 17%
51 Yu Darvish SDP 6 7 3 3 0 1 9 25 4.50 1.33 0 95.8 95.1 10%
52 Luis Severino NYY 6 5 3 3 1 2 7 25 4.50 1.17 0 95.6 16%
53 JT Brubaker PIT 6 9 3 3 0 0 6 27 4.50 1.50 0 93.4 15%
54 Taijuan Walker NYM 6 8 3 3 0 2 5 26 4.50 1.67 1 94.5 93 13%
55 Andre Pallante STL 6 7 3 3 1 3 2 27 4.50 1.67 0 95.4 94.7 6%
56 Michael Kopech CHW 6 3 3 3 0 4 2 25 4.50 1.17 0 94.5 6%
57 Logan Gilbert SEA 5.2 9 3 3 2 2 7 27 4.76 1.94 1 96.6 10%
58 Cole Irvin OAK 5.1 7 3 3 2 2 4 24 5.06 1.69 0 89.1 88 6%
59 James Kaprielian OAK 5.1 2 3 3 0 4 2 21 5.06 1.13 0 93.9 7%
60 Jordan Lyles BAL 7 6 4 4 1 1 4 28 5.14 1.00 0 91.9 91.3 12%
61 Sandy Alcantara MIA 7 6 5 4 2 0 4 27 5.14 0.86 0 97.8 98 5%
62 Brady Singer KCR 8.1 7 5 5 1 1 5 33 5.40 0.96 0 93.7 5%
63 Nestor Cortes NYY 5 5 3 3 1 2 7 22 5.40 1.40 0 92.1 19%
64 Mitch Keller PIT 5 5 3 3 0 1 5 21 5.40 1.20 0 95.9 94.7 8%
65 Chris Flexen 플렉센 SEA 5 5 3 3 1 2 3 20 5.40 1.40 1 93 7%
66 Joe Ryan MIN 5 8 3 3 1 1 1 25 5.40 1.80 1 90.4 5%
67 Jared Koenig OAK 4.2 5 3 3 1 3 4 23 5.79 1.71 0 88.9 7%
68 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI 6 7 4 4 1 1 5 26 6.00 1.33 0 92 91.9 8%
69 Michael Lorenzen LAA 3 4 2 2 0 4 5 18 6.00 2.67 0 94.2 93.2 12%
70 Trevor Rogers MIA 4.1 7 3 3 1 1 5 21 6.23 1.85 0 94.2 9%
71 Blake Snell SDP 5.2 6 4 4 1 2 4 25 6.35 1.41 0 95.4 18%
72 Lance Lynn CHW 6.2 6 6 5 1 1 8 29 6.75 1.05 0 93.3 91.2 21%
73 Alex Faedo DET 4 3 3 3 1 3 4 18 6.75 1.50 0 94.2 9%
74 Mitch White LAD 4 5 3 3 1 2 3 20 6.75 1.75 0 93.6 93.5 11%
75 Chi Chi González MIL 4 4 3 3 1 2 3 17 6.75 1.50 0 92.1 2%
76 Aaron Civale CLE 4 8 3 3 0 3 2 22 6.75 2.75 0 90.7 7%
77 Antonio Senzatela COL 5 8 4 4 0 2 6 25 7.20 2.00 0 94.7 15%
78 Adrian Houser MIL 6 9 5 5 0 1 3 26 7.50 1.67 0 94.6 94.1 3%
79 Dallas Keuchel ARI 4.1 6 4 4 0 3 7 22 8.31 2.08 0 86.9 86.8 15%
80 Ian Anderson ATL 4 6 4 4 1 4 6 22 9.00 2.50 0 93.7 17%
81 Yusei Kikuchi TOR 2 6 5 2 2 1 5 15 9.00 3.50 0 93.7 10%
82 Brad Keller KCR 3.2 8 5 4 0 2 4 21 9.82 2.73 0 94.6 94.3 10%
83 Mike Minor CIN 5 8 6 6 3 2 4 24 10.80 2.00 0 90.4 6%
84 Ryan Feltner COL 4 8 5 5 0 1 2 21 11.25 2.25 0 93.6 92.8 8%
85 Beau Brieske DET 3.2 5 5 5 1 3 2 19 12.27 2.18 0 94.5 94 7%
86 Kyle Gibson PHI 2.2 4 5 5 0 3 2 17 16.88 2.63 0 92.5 92.5 13%
87 Alec Mills CHC 2.2 6 5 5 3 1 1 15 16.88 2.63 0 89.3 89.7 0%
88 Anthony DeSclafani SFG 2.2 7 7 7 0 1 1 16 23.63 3.00 0 93.2 92.4 9%
89 José Berríos TOR 2.2 8 8 8 2 2 1 18 27.00 3.75 0 94.3 93.9 5%
90 Glenn Otto TEX 2 6 6 6 0 3 1 13 27.00 4.50 0 92.4 92.4 8%
Sorted by ERA

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

  • Cristian Javier – Having a brilliant season already, Javier had the best start of his career with 7 no-hit innings laying the groundwork for Houston’s second combined no-no in the Bronx. WAS put up 7 ER on Javier back in mid-May, his third start of the season. Since then, he has a 2.41 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 37.3 IP with a 34% K rate and 10% BB rate. Javier isn’t coming out of your rotation at this point.
  • Justin Verlander – No complaints about 7 IP/1 ER in the Bronx, though just 3 Ks which brought his K% to just 15% over his last three starts. He hasn’t been super dominant on the year at a 24% K%. No one is complaining when it comes with a 2.22 ERA/0.87 WHIP.
  • Spencer Strider – It was always going to be tough to salvage the 2-step after allowing 6 ER in 3.7 IP v. SF earlier in the week, especially with LAD on tap for the weekend, but he gave a brilliant effort with six scoreless. It still wound up being a 5.59 ERA in 9.7 IP counterbalanced by a 1.23 WHIP and 11 Ks. I’ve now used him in 2-steps that included at COL and v. LAD so while his command will breed some volatility, I don’t really see myself putting him on the bench.
  • Tyler Mahle – Mahle’s lost his streak of three straight home gems at the hands of LAD (6 IP/12 H/4 ER) earlier in the week, so he needed the quality start at SF to save anything. With the 12 hits v. LAD, the WHIP was sunk (1.42), but he did get the ERA under 5.00, had 11 Ks (although it was less than 1 K/IP), and scooped a Sunday win. I’m still terrified of him at home, so I’d sit him v. ATL this week.
  • Graham Ashcraft – Ashcraft had just a 5% SwStr rate in his first two starts in the major leagues. In five starts since, he is at 10% which is enough to deliver a 20-22% K rate (he’s at 18% during this time but hinting at upside for more). His premium groundball rate (58%) and great control (4%) give him a viable foundation to build upon and if the Ks come along, he could be a real find for the summer. He gets at CHC and v. PIT in his next two.
  • Josiah Gray – With just 3 HR in his last 5 starts, Gray is suppressing his biggest weakness to great effect. He has a 1.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 29 IP with 31 Ks and 12 BB. He’s only 2-0 in that time due to weak team support, but this run shows what he can do when he is keeping the ball in the park.
  • David Peterson – He took full advantage of back-to-back MIA starts, netting a 1.46 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 15 Ks, and 1 W for the week. Peterson is slated for TEX and MIA in his next two starts as long as he remains in the rotation.
  • Rich Hill – Just when it seems like he’s actually aging and starting to lose something, he reels off a 3.00 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 16% K-BB rate in 27 IP with 3 Ws. He has gone fewer than 5 IP just once in the five starts, too. It always feels like he is a blowup waiting to happen, but don’t forget that his 4 IP/6 ER dud v. BAL on May 30th was his first start over 4 ER since May 8th, 2018!!! Sure, it still stings to eat a 3 IP/4 ER or something like that, but the teams that have had Hill during that run of 4 ER or fewer outings (LAD, MIN, NYM, TBR, BOS) have all been smart about pulling the plug quickly when Hill is clearly not on in a given start.
  • José Urquidy – That’s now three straight QS for Urq as his insane hit rate is starting to regress. After allowing 12.4 H/9 over his first 11 starts, he is down to 4.8 in these three, including starts against both NY teams. It’s still just a 17% K rate, but his 10% SwStr can deliver a low-20%s rate which would be palatable as long as we’re getting the WHIP and high W probability as an Astro.
  • Germán Márquez – Márquez now has a 2.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his last three road starts, but it comes with 15 Ks and 9 BB so I’m not sure he has become bankable on the road all of a sudden. He gets LAD at home this week so it’s an easy sit if you’re in a league deep enough to even roster him.
  • Chris Archer – He has made it through 5 in three of his five starts this month, posting a 1.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in the process. He only has 16 Ks in 23 IP and those three 5 IP outings are his only ones of the year, so the upside is definitely limited. He has averaged 70 pitches per start with a season-high of 79.
  • Kyle Hendricks – The Wheel of Hendricks continues to spin… where it’ll land is anyone’s guess. With such a small margin for error, it’s hard to know when good Hendricks will show up and the downside is so severe that it’s tough to ever feel comfortable with him. He has four starts of 6+ ER and six of 0-1 ER. Feeling lucky at CIN this week?
  • Zack Greinke – Similar to Hendricks except with a potentially playable split. He has a 2.28 ERA/1.08 WHIP at home compared to 6.90/1.43 on the road with 0 home/7 road HR split being the obvious key difference.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

  • Nestor Cortes – There’s this phenomenon in fantasy baseball where we know full well a pitcher is going to regress – even if the stats back them up as a viable starter just not one on the elite level they are regressing from – and yet we overreact to the regression every single time. Cortes had a 1.50 ERA through his first 10 starts, aided by a 0.6 HR/9 and 7% HR/FB rate so despite his great 24% K-BB rate, he was due to come down to earth. And yet panic is setting in because of his 5.68 ERA/1.37 WHIP over the last three starts. The 15% K-BB rate isn’t great, but the 6 HRs are the major difference here. Suddenly, his numbers are essentially a carbon copy of last year when he has a 2.90 ERA and 3.78 SIERA. There will likely be even more regression since he will be a starter all year this season, but even if he’s just the 3.78 ERA from here forward, it’s a major win for a late-round pick/waiver wire find.
  • Lance Lynn – Four of the six runs (5 ER) came in a weird 7th inning. He opened flyout, HBP, line out so he had 2 outs, 1 on with Jorge Mateo up. Lynn walked Mateo, he of the 5% BB rate and 63 wRC+. Awesome. A 1B to Cedric Mullins and then another HBP, this one scoring a run, ended his day. Jose Ruiz promptly gave up a 2B to Austin Hays and saddled Lynn with 3 more runs. This one got away, but I’m encouraged by the 8 Ks and 1 BB.
  • Patrick Sandoval – Has a 2.49 ERA in June, but with a 1.57 WHIP! The 24 hits have been the major culprit as his 10% BB rate is in line with norms. While his GB rate is down from last year (-4 pts to 47%), it’s still more grounders than flies which often leads to more hits. An 80% LOB rate is definitely sustaining him right now. Don’t get too enamored with the ERA and ignore the damage that the WHIP can do (1.37 on the season). Sandoval has become Luis Castillo-esque, strikeout, changeup-first guys who keep the ball down well which limits HR impact, but fuels more hits and both can have trouble commanding their change which yields walk rate volatility. The upside is rich, but there is a tough downside, the lowest of which we saw for 2+ months from Castillo last season before he turned things around. I still don’t see myself taking Sandoval out of the lineup, though.
  • Michael Kopech – Only 2 Ks and his velo is still down, but it was still a quality start! I’m nervously keeping him in the rotation.
  • Mitch White – He actually wasn’t all that good (4 IP/3 ER) but I also don’t really think many teams used this start both because it was a sudden fill-in and a difficult matchup. I mainly wanted to include him to highlight that he’s back in the rotation for Andrew Heaney, who went back on the IL. He is slated for SD and COL in his next two, both of which I’m open to in 15s. I’d probably pass v. SD in anything shallower than that while taking on the COL start in just about any format next

Duds: The worst of the day from fantasy relevant arms

  • José Berríos – After a 3-start run that started to look more like Berrios (2.45 ERA/0.63 WHIP), he’s given it all back with back-to-back duds, saddling him with a 6.28 ERA in his last five. I can’t argue with anyone ready to just bench him. I’d probably still start him in 15s this week v. TB given how awful the Rays offense has been and he gets a trip to OAK after that. If he doesn’t succeed in these next 2, I’m open to full on cut.
  • Trevor Rogers – At least he had 12 Ks on the week! A 2-step against the Mets is a really tough draw, but this was supposed to be an all-formats must-start. He gets a trip to WAS this week and I have no real confidence in him, even in deeper formats.
  • Ian Anderson – Is he even a 15-team starter right now? He has a 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 9% K-BB rate in 74.3 IP. If it weren’t for the 6 Ws, he would no doubt be outside the top 100 SPs in terms of value this year (auction calculator – he’s 90th at SP).
  • Glenn Otto – Wow, that Nats added more than a run to Otto’s season ERA with 6 ER in 2 IP of work (from 4.24 to 5.31). The tough part about Otto and guys like this is their bad outings can erase 2-3 good ones in a flash. He has allowed 14 of his 25 ER in his two worst starts of the year. It is likely that most fantasy managers missed both as one was v. BOS and this week’s v. WAS came after a 3-week stint on the COVID IL. Of course, you might not be so lucky when his next dud hits. I consider myself an Otto fan, just preaching some caution for myself and others who see him as a viable streamer.
  • Anthony DeSclafani – Tony Disco’s homers have come back with a vengeance! After posting a 1.0 HR/9 in last year’s standout season, his rate is back up to 1.9 along with an insane 16.6 H/9, yielding a 9.95 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. The .456 BABIP and 55% LOB rate will regress, but the HR rate isn’t guaranteed to do the same. You’re not starting him anywhere right now.

I still haven’t figured out a Monday segment, so it’s still just pitchers, but that’s not so bad since we have at least 90 starts to dive into from the weekend. If you want my thoughts on anyone not mentioned or even if you have a specific question about someone from the Business As Usual tier, don’t hesitate to ask in the comments!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Kevinmember
1 month ago

Loving these Paul!