Biggest Hitter Improvements Since April

Every year we struggle with what to do in April as fantasy baseball players. We all try not to overreact while also making sure we don’t bypass potential breakouts who are out front with small samples. A big issue with April numbers is that there can be an anchoring effect that impacts how we view players several months later. April matters, it obviously counts, but it’s often given too much credence as a sort of “foundation” for player’s season. Not every big breakout starts in April and a good April doesn’t prevent a player from having poor season.

Let’s look at a group of the biggest risers since April and see what’s going on with them:

RISERS

Ketel Marte, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts are having three of biggest breakout seasons in the league, but they were all toting pretty modest slash lines through April. Marte did have 6 HR and 3 SB, so he probably wasn’t being cut by anyone, but the .250/.296/.483 line was unappealing. Devers needed a .294 AVG, 4 SB, and a strong K:BB rate (1.4) to save his HR-less April. A .373 SLG might’ve led to some April cuts. Bogaerts was the best of the bunch with a .271/.358/.467 line and a 4 HR, but I’m not sure anyone expected 19 HR and a 163 wRC+ from May on.

Jackie Bradley Jr. continues to have one of the most disparate hot/cold streak ranges so even those who suffered through a 6 (SIIIIX!!!) wRC+ in April were afraid to move on, knowing he’d likely put up an equally hot run sooner than later. It ended up happening in June: .315/.419/.573 w/5 HR and 3 SB in 106 PA.

Established stars like Charlie Blackmon, Jose Ramirez, Starling Marte, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado had cursory concerns thrown their way, but no one was considering cutting any of them. Ramirez probably drew the most concern given how bad he was and the fact that he didn’t finish 2018 all that well. But even that was more of the “well, this sucks, but obviously I can’t do anything but ride it out”. Little did they know that they’d suffer through two more months with a .232/.324/.353 line, 3 HR, and 9 SB before finally seeing someone worthy of a top 5 pick in July: .344/.364/.731 w/9 HR and 4 SB in 99 PA.

Chris Taylor, Marwin Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, Yuli Gurriel, Ramon Laureano, and Evan Longoria were all cut in droves across most mixed leagues as they didn’t carry much by way of expectations coming into the season. Several of them will no doubt be part of championship stories as key pickups, probably most of all Laureano. He’s paced out to a 40 HR/20 SB/100 R & RBI season since May 1st, hitting .304/.351/.582 with 18 HR, 9 SB, 51 R, and 47 RBI in 302 PA.

Yasiel Puig, Ryan Braun, and Brian Dozier were given some leeway. Puig was easily the worst of the bunch, but as a regular 4th/5th round pick, he wasn’t going anywhere. He had 4 HR and 3 SB, plus a .214 BABIP offered hope for his abysmal .192 AVG.

Even in most two catcher leagues, Roberto Perez and Christian Vazquez were likely undrafted and they were certainly cut quickly even if they were drafted as guys like Mitch Garver (197 wRC+), Omar Narvaez (161), James McCann (151), Tyler Flowers (148), and Pedro Severino (136) were going off. Perez has inexplicably hit 14 HR since May 1st. Vazquez likely become a hot pickup in May thanks to a .373 AVG. After hitting .222/.278/.431 with 4 HR in April, he’s at .301/.337/.506 with 12 HR since May 1st. Catcher has been so weird this year and Perez and Vazquez are a big part of why.

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Did you cut anyone from this group? Better yet, have you benefited from picking one of them up?