Big Kid Adds (Week 7)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Batters

Maikel Garcia (9): Most weeks, Garcia would have been the big add but Mervis’s promotion garnered most of the attention. Garcia is a top-100 prospect and the Royals best. The 23-year-old got a nine-game call-up last season where he hit .318/.348/.364 with no steals or homers.

The big draw for him is his speed. In 2021, he had a combined 35 steals, and 39 in 2022. So far this season, he has a total of six with two coming in the majors. Additionally, he has a great eye with a 12% BB% and just a 16% K% across all levels. But his power is the big knock with us giving him poor grades of 30 for both Game and Raw Power with other sources agreeing.

Some signs point to his power step forward this season. In AAA this season, he posted a 45% HH% with a 90.3 avgEV. In the majors so far, he has  a 104 maxEV, but in AAA he had a maxEV of 107 mph — up 6 mph from last season. Additionally, his 92.4 avgEV (comps are Bichette, Schwarber, Muncy) and 54% HardHit% (comps are Kelenic, LeMahieu, Auna) are near elite. The raw strength seems to have taken a major step forward.

One issue he had in the minors this season and previous seasons was a high groundball rate (56% in AAA). This year in the majors, it’s just a 33% GB% with a 13-degree Launch Angle (2 degrees in AAA). So far, he is defying projections and hitting the ball hard and in the air.

Note: I ask Eric Longenhagen about his 30 grade on power. He stands behind it because of a “40 raw with zero launch means I’m rounding down to 30-35” and “109-110 max is big league avg”.

On top of all that, he’s adding third-base eligibility (already has shortstop). Maybe the improved results won’t stick but managers aren’t waiting to find out.

JJ Bleday (9): He struggled in 238 PA last season hitting .167/.277/.309 with a 28% K%. This season the 25-year-old cut the strikeouts to 13% in AAA and 16% in 19 major league plate appearances. With the improved plate discipline, he dominated AAA by hitting .316/.429/.643 with 7 HR. In his small major league sample, he already has a 1.199 OPS and 2 HR. If any fantasy team is in need of power, Bleday has to be a consideration.

Marcell Ozuna (9): Ozuna wasn’t playing much entering the May 2nd game and for good reason, he only had a .444 OPS. In that game, he hit 2 HR and since then he has started every day while hitting .263/.391/.895 and adding two more homers. I have not read about any changes to his profile, so it might just be a hot streak.

Tyrone Taylor (9): Taylor could not be added until this week in the NFBC, so it was the first chance for managers to roster him. So far in seven games, he has started in six of them with a .581 OPS and 1 HR on the season (.828 OPS, 1 HR in AAA rehab stats). At least a streamable outfield option.

Matt Mervis (7): This call-up has been covered in detail elsewhere.

Yoán Moncada (7): With Jake Burger on the IL, Moncada should return from the IL this weekend to a full-time role. So far this season, he has hit .308/.325/.564 with 2 HR. He hasn’t gotten to his power as much this season with 2 HR and a .143 ISO in AAA and 1 HR in the majors with a .143 ISO.

Nick Pratto (7): After struggling in AAA (.578 OPS), the 24-year-old has been on fire (.357/.438/.500) since being promoted but regression is obviously coming (33% K%, .560 BABIP). His original calling card was power with 36 combined home runs in 2021 and 24 last season.

I’m not sure the home run power is coming back since it looks like he has lowered his attack angle/swing path.

Month (year): Attack angle in degrees
Jul (22): 20
Aug (22): 25
Sep (22): 17
AAA (23): 2
Apr (23): 13
May (23): 9

The new approach can be seen with his flyball rate dropping from 53% to 11% and his line drive rate from 14% to 42%. The 42% LD% is not going to hold, but the hopes for 30+ HR seasons are gone. Hopefully, he can offset the home runs by having a near .250 AVG.

Enmanuel Valdez (7): The 24-year-old Valdez didn’t get the fanfare of the other rookie call-ups but his profile is balanced with power, speed, and batting average. His Steamer600 has him with 18 HR, 7 SB, and a .240 AVG. A Wil Myers/Avisail Garcia-like profile. Not great but useful in these deeper formats.

While he is hitting .324/.342/.486 with 1 HR and 3 SB, his playing time is not secure with several middle infielders on the IL.

He projects to hit better than all of them except Story so maybe he can secure a spot in the lineup before everyone else gets healthy.

Dylan Carlson (6): He’s started 10 game games straight in centerfield while hitting just .235/.283/.353 with 2 HR and 1 SB on the season. He’s just a straight-up volume play.

Connor Wong (6): Wong is the number one catcher for the Red Sox as seen by starting in six of the last 10 games. So far this season, he is hitting .257/.313/.459 with 3 HR. In these deeper leagues, he’s an improvement over many of the bottom dwellers.

Gavin Sheets (6): I knew he was going to be on this list with his weekly projections from the guys at Razzball.

The 75th-ranked batter is streamable by someone in every league. Now, maybe one or two managers wouldn’t need him but someone would. He’s already rewarded his managers with a home run.

Sheets should be 100% rostered this week as a streaming option. Insane schedule against weak RHP.

Probably only not an option in an 8-team mixed league or smaller.

No excuse otherwise. https://t.co/GY6il2i24v

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) May 9, 2023

Raimel Tapia (5): I’m not following this move. While he has started five straight games, he’s sharing an outfield with Duran, Verdugo, and Yoshida. This week, the Red Sox only have five games, so he’s not going to get many chances. Also, he is not hitting (.239/.327/.348). Some teams must be desperate for those 4 SB.

Zach McKinstry (5): He has been starting and leading off against righties while hitting .260/.345/.411 with 2 HR so far. The Tigers are only expected to face five righties this week (3/2). Nothing points to this being anything more than the sixth preference in a bid list.

Dominic Fletcher (5): David Fletcher’s brother has started six straight while hitting .391/.440/.478 (.500 BABIP) for far. His 600 PA projections have him around 5 HR, 10 SB, and .269 AVG. Similar comps are Kevin Newman and Adam Frazier. Possible streamer.

Starters

Bryce Miller (9): This call-up has been covered in detail elsewhere.

J.P. France (9): Usually, I don’t bring up the bid amounts but France’s average winning bid was $161 (out of $1000 budget) with the average second place at $67. These numbers seem way too high. While the 28-year-old shoved in his first start (5 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, 1 BB), there are major concerns in his profile.

Across all levels and years in the minors, he has posted 4.3 BB/9. In AAA, he has a 5.1 BB/9. While he didn’t have any walks in his major league start, he had a 40% Ball% which equates to around a 16% BB%.

In his first start, he threw five different pitches between 37% and 10%. Here are his numbers on those pitches from AAA and ranked by usage.

Pitch: SwStr%
Cutter: 16%
Four-seam: 5%
Slider: 28%
Change: 18%
Curve: 15%

There are some great swing-and-miss options among them if he could throw strikes.

Peyton Battenfield (8): It looked for a bit as if Battenfield was out of Cleveland’s rotation after making a two-inning relief appearance. Then he was given another start against the Twins where he went seven innings while striking out seven batters, walking none, and allowing two earned runs. On the season, his strikeouts have been fine (7.8 K/9) but his 4.1 BB/9 has been a huge drag.

His arsenal consists of a below-average 91 mph fastball and three non-fastballs, cutter, change, and curve, which each has a least 14% SwStr%.

Possibly the demand comes from his scheduled start against Detroit (Rodriguez).

Adam Wainwright (7): He’s done with his rehab stint and is scheduled to face Boston (Sale) this week. In his first start back, his average fastball velocity was down 1 mph (88.5 mph to 87.5). I’m not sure if it’s a good plan to focus on a pitcher who lives by putting the ball into play in a season with a lively ball and no shifting.

Brandon Bielak (6): In 103 IP in the majors, he has a 5.07 ERA (5.02 xFIP), 1.52 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9. On top of that, his velocity is down 0.5 mph with no change to his pitch mix. I know he’s supposed to be in Houston’s rotation, but it is probably better to go with a middle reliever at this point. Scheduled to face the White Sox (Cease) this week and Oakland (Sears) next week.

Jhony Brito (5): See Bielak. I know he’s on the Yankees and the stream against the A’s looks enticing. That doesn’t mean the A’s won’t light him up like a Christmas tree. I do see his STUFFF metrics have him around a 4.00 ERA pitcher while every other projection has him between a 4.50 to 6.00 ERA talent. He’s just not someone I’m interested in adding.

Relievers

Mark Leiter Jr. (8) and Adbert Alzolay (5): It was not surprising to see both guys getting added this week with both earning a Save over the weekend. The Cubs bullpen has been a mess with Michael Fulmer having more Blown Saves (2) than actual Saves (1). Brad Boxberger does have two Saves but is far from being even an average reliever (7.6 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 92 mph fastball). Looking at the team’s usage pattern, it’s tough to see who has the advantage. And there is Brandon Hughes who might be the best arm but is on the IL. I’m guessing Leiter has the edge (no blowups) but understand I could be wrong.

Pierce Johnson (6): When Daniel Bard came off the IL, I think everyone thought the struggling Johnson (4.73 ERA 1.73 WHIP) would be forced to hand over the closer’s role. It looks like he still has the job with two Saves this past week. The bottom of the barrel Saves source.

Hunter Harvey (6): With Kyle Finnegan struggling (6.75 ERA, 1.95 WHIP) and blowing a Save on Saturday, Harvey got the Save on Sunday. Harvey has been decent this season with a 2.30 ERA (3.50 xFIP), 1.02 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9. He attacks hitters with a 98-mph fastball (9% SwStr%) and a great splitter (20% SwStr%). He has tried to mix in a curve over his last five starts without much success (5% SwStr%). Worth a stash.