Big Kid Adds (Week 6)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Joey Loperfido (10): I have a few teams in RTSports (12-team roto, $1000 budget) where we can add anyone, anytime. The news was reported that Loperfido was coming up and he could be added before the NFBC crowd. His average bid was $185. By the time everyone was able to process all the news, he went for $119 on average in these leagues. In the Main Event, that average was $58. What a difference a few games make.

In the AAA, the 24-year-old had 13 HR and 5 SB while hitting .287/.393/.713. The one issue that everyone pointed out was his 30% K% and would Loperfido continue those struggles into the majors. The answer is yes with a 44% K% in just 16 PA. On top of that, he doesn’t have one extra base hit.

Pitchers are attacking him with fastballs high in the strike zone (66% fastballs seen, 18% SwStr%).

One other issue with him is that he may just be facing righties. He sat in the one game when the opposing team started a lefty.

His hit tool might not be ready for the majors

Tyler Black (9): The 23-year-old destroyed AAA with 5 HR and 3 SB while hitting .303/.393/.525. In six MLB games, he has struggled a bit (.566 OPS) with a 35% K%. So far, he’s started in four of five games (sat against a lefty) while playing first base in three games.

With several AAA hitters struggling, my next article will be on hitters making the transition from the automatic zone in AAA to Angel Hernandez.

Jonny DeLuca (8): It’s always a gamble to bet on players getting regular playing time with the Rays and DeLuca is no exception. In 45 PA last season, he hit .262/.311/.429 with 2 HR and 1 SB while mainly facing lefties (35 PA vs LHP, 10 vs RHP). While he only has 12 PA this season, he has faced more righties (8) than lefties (4) while starting in three straight games.

He pushed Amed Rosario (.757 OPS) and Richie Palacios (.870 OPS) to second base in his debut even though both hit higher than DeLuca in the lineup. One option is for DeLuca to take Jose Siri’s (.548 OPS) spot in center field.

Projections tab DeLuca with 20 HR, 10 SB, and a .230 AVG over an entire season. Mitch Moreland and Mickey Moniak have similar projections. An OK batter, but nothing great.

Jon Singleton (8): With José Abreu going to the minors to work through some things, Singleton took over at first base. Singleton’s production is acceptable with 3 HR while hitting .258/.329/.435. Boring but productive add.

Abraham Toro (7): Toro was leading off and playing third base. Now he’s back playing first and second base (10 G at 3B, 9 G at 2B, 3 G at 1B) while hitting a respectable .284/.339/.450 with 3 HR and 1 SB. A fine bench replacement bat.

Wenceel Pérez (7): While Perez misses some time because of an illness, he has been a huge surprise by hitting .296/.387/.556 with 3 HR and 2 SB. Most of the negatives going into the season mentioned his lack of defense.

Pérez fell off the list when he stopped playing shortstop. He now has some experience in center field, and if it turns out he can actually play there (he is not as good a defender as Trei Cruz, in my opinion), then he’ll stick around on the 40-man as upper-level depth.

And.

Throwing issues severely hampered Perez at second base last year, but his arm seems to play better as an outfielder, where his speed helps him cover ground in center.

Though Perez’s athleticism and versatility have a chance to contribute in the Majors, his appeal is hampered by his platoon splits and defensive issues at second. He has a chance to address these at Triple-A.

Another reason for his struggles last season could be related to a back issue.

So far in the majors, he’s shown no platoon splits to worry about (155 OPS vs RHP, 207 OPS vs LHP).

At this point, He’s a must-roster in all formats until he starts showing some flaws.

Vidal Bruján (7): Bruján had little fantasy value until he started in eight of the last 10 games. While he started the season with second base eligibility, he has or will soon get it at third base (8 G) and shortstop (8 G).

So far in his career, the 26-year-old has it .180/.243/.259 with 3 HR and 11 SB in 334 PA. He’s hitting better this year (.286/.355/.429) by dropping his strikeout rate from 25% to 8%. Instead of being patient at the plate, he’s attacking more pitches in the zone (74% to 83%).

Brujan fits into a hitter class who are solid roto-league contributors but are on the fringes because they aren’t good ballplayers. Here are the Steamer600 comps for him.

This player type includes guys who are succeeding (Rojas and Caballero), those who have succeeded (Berti and Mateo), and those we hope to succeed (Hamilton and Scott). Most of the time, these guys need a good run of BABIP luck to stand out and once that luck runs out, they head to the bench or are released.

Jordan Beck (7): In 21 PA since being promoted, Beck has 11 strikeouts and just three singles. Beck is another hitter who is struggle to translate his AAA success (.307/.405/.594) to the majors.

Alek Thomas (6): Thomas is returning from the IL and should be able to slot back in the Diamondbacks lineup. Thomas is not a must-add. Over his career, he’s averaged 12 HR, 9 SB, and a .230 average per 600 PA.

Jorge Mateo (5): Mateo has started in four straight games while hitting .245/.305/.472 with 2 HR and 5 SB on the season. It’s time to roster Mateo to see if he can keep the job and possibly steal double-digit bases before regression hits.

Blake Sabol (5): With Patrick Bailey on the IL, managers needed a catcher replacement and Sabol gets the call.

Mike Yastrzemski (5): The NFBC allows managers to swap out hitters on Friday. Managers here are taking advantage of the week’s first half when the Giants face four rights, including three against the Rockies. The strong-side platoon bat was an obvious add.

Michael Massey (4): In 461 PA last season, Massey struggled by hitting .229/.274/.381 with 15 HR and 6 HR. While the counting stats were acceptable, a .655 OPS wasn’t.

He’s come into this season with some changes. First, he’s making more contact (80% Contact% to 94% Contact%) and has dropped his strikeout rate from 22% to 8%. In order to get the extra contact, he lowered his swing path (link to bat path and explanation).

This new approach is working for him and he’s even hit three home runs so far. He’s never shown elite power (110 mph maxEV) so there is no reason to swing for the fountains in Kauffman Stadium. Instead, make plenty of contact while being a doubles hitter with the occasional home run.

Starters

Christian Scott (8): Scott was just promoted and everything about him was covered by everyone alive and dead.

Hayden Wesneski (6): As a starter, the 26-year-old has a 0.87 ERA (3.50 xFIP), 1.06 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9. Last season he struggled with a 4.63 ERA (4.35 WHIP). Two changes point to the improvement, more strikes and groundballs.

Last season he posted a 3.2 BB/9 and this year his walk rate is down to 1.6 BB/9. To verify the change, he’s dropped his Ball% from 37% (equiv 3.2 BB/9) to 31% (equiv 1.7 BB/9).

As for the groundballs, he’s improved from a 40% GB% to a 49% GB%. He’s getting groundballs off his four-seamer by utilizing the lower half of the strike zone.

With what Wesneski has shown in his first two starts, he could have the talent to be a solid fantasy contributor. The issue will be playing time with Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele (and eventually Jordan Wicks) coming off the IL.

Taijuan Walker (6): There is no reason to be rostering Walker. Teams are teeing up on his 91-mph fastball (down 1.5 mph from last season). So far, about every batted ball is in the air (19% GB%) and that leads to either line drives or home runs (2.1 HR/9, 5.43 FIP). The damage can be seen with his 6.39 ERA after struggling during his rehab starts with more walks than strikeouts.

I know it’s early May, but the starting pitcher pool has been picked clean and that’s why guys like Scott are going between 20% and 40% in FAAB. It’s getting to the point where streaming middle relievers might be the better option than adding ratio ignitors like Walker.

Jack Leiter (6): In AAA this season, the 24-year-old has a 13.1 K/9, 2.84 ERA, and 0.91 WHIP. Those are great but everyone will remember his one major league appearance when he allowed 7 ER in just 3.2 IP. It seems like he is going to get a chance to redeem himself this week with a spot start in Wednesday’s doubleheader.

Patrick Sandoval (6): While Sandoval has an unsightly 5.91 ERA (3.67 xFIP), it’s from putting too many runners on base. His .396 BABIP might be unlucky but he deserves the 4.5 BB/9). Both have led to an unrosterable 1.69 WHIP.

The deal with Sandoval is that in five of his starts, he has a combined 3.75 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. In the other two starts, he posted a 15.79 ERA and 3.33 WHIP. So far this season, it’s a game of Russian Roulette with him.

Roddery Muñoz (4): It’s tough to know when he starts since he cycles to and from AAA. His stats were great until Monday night when the Dodgers hit four homers against him and pushed his ERA up to 5.17 (3.66 xFIP). While he’s accumulating a decent number of strikeouts (10.9 K/9), he walks too many guys (4.0 BB/9) while allowing all those home runs. Streamer against weak opponents.

Bryse Wilson (4): Pitchers like Wilson are some of the hardest players to evaluate as they transition from reliever to starter.

As a starter this season (4 GS in 10 G), Wilson has a 1.35 ERA (4.69 xFIP), 0.95 WHIP (.184 BABIP), and 7.7 K/9. His overall stats are boosted up from relieving with his 24.3% K%-BB%. As a starter, he is only at 10.3 K%-BB%. The key here is to separate what he’s done as a reliever and as a starter.

His fastball velocity didn’t take too much of a hit between roles dropping from 94.1 mph to 93.8 mph. As for his pitch mix, he’s leaning more into his best swing-and-miss pitch, the cutter (10% SwStr%). It’s never a good sign when a pitcher doesn’t have a single pitch with a swinging-strike rate over 10%.

I can’t find a reason to roster him yet, but I could be wrong.

Spencer Arrighetti (4): The 24-year-old righty got lit up for seven runs in three innings in his first start, but has pitched better (can’t get much worse) since that game. In the three starts since the blowup, he has a 5.40 ERA (3.51 xFIP), 1.65 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9.

All the ratio damage comes from a 5.5 BB/9 (4.7 BB/9 during the “good” stretch). He needs to throw more strikes.

He accumulates all the strikeouts with a four four-pitch mix.

He’s moved off his slider throughout the season (33% to 5%) and leaned into his curve more (6% to 18%). It’d be nice for him to mix up his pitches more.

If Arrighetti can find the plate, there are the pieces here for a damn fine pitcher. He’ll likely remain fantasy-irrelevant if he maintains a walk rate near 5 BB/9 though.

Relievers

Daniel Hudson (10): With Evan Phillips on the IL, managers assume Hudson will take over the closer’s role.

Alex Lange (7): Jason Foley blew a Save and Lange got the next one. This move points to people speculating that Lange will retake the closer’s role.