Big Kid Adds (Week 5)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Mike Tauchman (10): If a baseball player wants to catch the attention of fantasy baseball managers, he should hit a home run immediately before FAAB runs for most leagues. Tauchman pulled off that feat Sunday night. Ed. note: unless I’m already interested in them. The Sunday Spike is killer!!

The Cubs organization loves Tauchman and he will continue to play as long as he’s hitting .296/.432/.507. The 33-year-old isn’t showing any major breakout traits but general improvements across the board. Walk rate up 3% points. Strikeout rate down 2% points. HardHit% up 2.5% points. Launch Angle up 6% points.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (9): While Crow-Armstrong was almost universally added, I thought there might be more demand for him even though he struggled (.179 OPS) in 19 PA last season. Crow-Armstrong is a power-speed threat and I thought there might be more demand than a range of winning bids between $31 and $6.

He announced his presence with authority in 2023 when he hit for a combined .283/.365/.511 with 20 HR and 37 SB across two minor league levels. He might struggle with strikeouts (~30% K% in AAA the past two seasons in auto umps). In 17 PA , he has five hits including a home run.

Steamer600 grades him out as the 186th-best fantasy option with some interesting comps.

While the outcome of his season could be good or bad, the Thairo Estrada and Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 comps could make him a steal. I think he should be rostered in all formats to see how this promotion works out.

Matt Mervis (7): He struggled in the majors last season (.531 OPS) and the struggles have continued this year (.255 OPS). He can’t find a way to translate his AAA success to the majors. Ed. note: I’m not saying he’s definitively cooked or anything, but maaaybe the Cubs knew something when they constantly looked for any way to NOT start him.

Hunter Goodman (6): The love for Goodman might not have existed if it was not for Steamer600. His projection grades out as the 80th best hitter in the game and here are his comps.

If any of those players had been on the wire, the bidding would have been through the roof. That wasn’t the case with Goodman. The shine has worn off.

In the majors, the 24-year-old has struggled with strikeouts as teams have fed him non-fastballs. He has seen more sliders (29% SwStr%) than fastballs.

Additionally, he might be on the strong side of a right-field platoon with Sean Bouchard.

Trevor Larnach (6): In 38 PA, he’s been on fire hitting .394/.447/.636 (.458 BABIP) with 2 HR. Along with the inflated BABIP, he’s dropped his strikeout rate from 34% to 21% by not being so passive (41% to 50%).

Just one note on Larnach, he will likely be on the strong side of a platoon (career .580 OPS vs LHP, .763 vs RHP).

Josh Rojas (6): While only facing righties, Rojas is leading off while hitting .318/.408/.530 with 3 HR and 2 HR. Most of his gains at the plate are from swinging less (44% to 41%), making more contact (78% to 84%), and hitting the ball harder (29% HH% to 36% HH%).

In a depleted third base position, a decent addition.

Tyler Nevin (6): Nevin is morphing into an ideal bench bat. He’s qualified at two positions (3B and OF), batting second in the lineup, and hitting (.830 OPS, 3 HR, 1 SB). While not special, he provides a nice floor in case of an injury.

Jo Adell (5): Adell has been on fire by hitting .316/.365/.614 with 4 HR and 5 SB (5 CS). The gains have come from almost halving his strikeout rate (40% to 22%) with his contact rate up (66% to 74%).

Adell has always had the tools to be a star. Be might now be making enough contact to be that star.

Garrett Cooper (5): With Triston Casas on the IL for a while, the Red Sox signed Cooper as a replacement. Cooper is nothing special who is expected to hit 18 HR with a .250 AVG over a full season.

Jesús Sánchez (5): Sanchez is on the strong side of a platoon and this week he was scheduled to face six lefties making him a nice weekly streamer.

Andrew Benintendi (5): He was having a horrible season (.547 OPS, 3 HR) but then hit two of his three homers the day before the NFBC FAAB runs. I bet most of these shares will be dropped next week for someone else with talent.

Ben Rortvedt (5): As for catchers, Rortvedt has been a pleasant surprise. So far, he’s hitting .340/.431/.400 (.500 BABIP) and starting in at least half the games.

Dylan Moore (5): Moore is the easy shortstop replacement for the J.P. Crawford (oblique) managers. Moore is normally a weak-side platoon bat. He is a drain on a team’s batting average (career .207 AVG)

Starters

Simeon Woods Richardson (9): Everyone jumped on Woods Richardson for two reasons. The first reason is simple, he’s thrown great. In 14 IP, he has a 2.45 ERA (4.22 xFIP), 1.36 WHIP, and 8.0 K/9. The other reason, and the main one for me, he has shown some major improvements.

First, his fastball velocity jumped 2.5 mph. Even with the jump, he backed off throwing it as much (46% to 38%). Instead of his fastball, he reintroduced his curve (8% SwStr%) and threw his slider (10% SwStr%) more.

Add Woods Richardson now before he disappears from the waiver wire.

Bryce Elder (9): Elder has been inserted into the Braves rotation with mixed results. A 1.50 ERA and 68% GB% are the good. On the bad side, his fastball sits at 90 mph and leads to just a 4.5 K/9.

His arsenal might work though. While his sinker doesn’t miss bats (2% SwStr%), he does generate a ton of groundballs (68% GB%). His slider (16% SwStr%) and change (14% SwStr%) miss bats but he can’t throw them in the zone (<39% Zone on both).

More than most pitchers, the first pitch is huge. When he gets that first strike, hitters have posted a .376 OPS against him. When he throws a ball, it’s a .997 OPS.

He seems to be a nice bench streamer who I’d be sitting in his next matchup against the Dodgers.

Slade Cecconi (8): With Blaze and Slade on the Diamondbacks, I expect Slazer to be called up next.

The 25-year-old righty has improved this season after an unimpressive 2023 (4.33 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, and 6.7 K/9). In 12 IP this season, he’s posted an 8.3 K/9, 0.50 WHIP, and 2.25 ERA (3.46 xFIP).

A couple of items point to the turnaround. First, he’s throwing his fastball (6% SwStr%) less (59% to 49%) and introduced a changeup (11% SwStr%, 20% usage). His best secondary is his slider (12% SwStr%) grades out better than its results.

Besides the ability to miss some bats, he is throwing strikes as seen by his 0.8 BB/9 and 32% Ball%.

While he’s only had two starts (SFG, SEA), his profile is interesting.

Quinn Priester (8): Priester struggled in his debut last season with a 7.77 ERA (5.10 xFIP), 1.70 WHIP, and 6.5 K/9. While the strikeouts (7.0 K/9) remain similar this year, he has cut his walks from 4.9 BB/9 to 1.7 BB/9.

Besides throwing strikes (39% Ball% to 35% Ball), the only change to his repertoire is that he’s throwing his curve (19% SwStr%) more (13% usage to 19%).

While most of his pitches keep the ball on the ground (e.g. 82% GB% for the sinker), his slider has been an extreme flyball pitch (29% GB%). With the fieldable contact he’s making, he should run a low BABIP. Maybe not the .233 BABIP he currently has but he should be better than league average.

Roster while available.

Ben Lively 라이블리 (6): Lively seems to have taken a huge step forward with his 10.9 K/9 but I noted this week’s waiver wire report, there is a huge disconnect between Lively’s 11% SwStr% and 32% K%. Usually, a pitcher’s K% ends up being twice their swinging-strike rate. For example, here are the 10 qualified pitchers from 2023 with the closest swinging strike rate to Lively.

Lively’s swinging strike rate should regress to around 8.0 K/9 which is about where his projection have him.

He’s still rosterable with the lower strikeout rate but he’s not an elite arm.

Another item to track is his 21% GB%. About 80% of every ball in play so far has been in the air. With so many flyballs, his 1.2 HR/9 might jump once the weather warms up.

While I’ve been pointing out his flaws, I think someone in every league needs to be taking a chance on him. As for a valuation, I’ll split the difference between the results (~2.50 ERA) and the projections (~4.50 ERA). Right now, his STUPH metrics place him as a 3.50 ERA. Value as a 3.50 ERA arm and adjust as he gets more starts.

Ryan Feltner (5): If there ever was a reason to roster a Rockies arm, it was Feltner this week. Two games on the road against the Marlins and Pirates. This add is a one-week stream.

Emerson Hancock (5): Over the 24-year-old’s last three starts, he’s going with a low strikeout (6.0 K/9), low walk (1.5 BB/9) approach to post a 2.00 ERA (.167 BABIP, 4.06 xFIP). He continues to not miss bats since his best swing-and-miss pitcher is his fastball (62% usage, 11% SwStr%).

A 4.00 ERA streaming starter.

Bailey Falter (5): These adds are 100% based on his two-start week at Oakland and home against the Rockies. Falter attacks hitters in the zone with his 91-mph fastball 65% of the time and the results are as expected, just a 6.5 K/9 and a 1.4 HR/9. Since he limits the walks (2.0 BB/9), he’s streamable in these instances.

Relievers

Yennier Cano (7): Craig Kimbrel was dealing with a back issue so fantasy managers jumped at the chance to add his backup.

Justin Lawrence (5): Lawrence (7.20 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP) got his first two Saves of the season last week so fantasy managers discovered Lawrence is the team’s closer.