Big Kid Adds (Week 3)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Hitters

Francisco Álvarez (9): The highly-touted prospect topped all bid lists but I don’t get the hype. While the 21-year-old could eventually become great, there are many signs he is not ready to be a major league hitter. While he has tons of power (70 grade, 108.9 maxEV in 2022) he has problems making contact. Here are his strikeout rates and swinging-strike rates over the past two seasons.

He struggles against non-fastballs and so far in the majors he’s seen 35% sliders for a 35% SwStr%. With the power and swing-and-miss, he’s a near perfect clone of Mike Zunino. Or Joey Bart.

And in most formats it’ll take a few weeks for him to get catcher eligibility. At least until then, he won’t be dragging down his manager’s team.

Akil Baddoo (9): I probably should have given Baddoo a little more credit in my waiver wire rankings yesterday, but after his struggles last season, I was not interested. He has always shown the ability to steal bases but not much else. While power remains lacking, he has shown better plate discipline with more walks than strikeouts (5% SwStr%) in the minors. He has hit leadoff in two straight games and might have the potential to be a Tommy Edman clone.

Alec Burleson (8): He has been starting and batting second against lefties. The Cardinals face six righties this week with three games at Colorado. There is a chance Burleson gets demoted mid-week if Lars Nootbaar comes off the IL.

Stone Garrett (7): Since being called up, Garrett has started in three of five games as the DH. While he’s a decent hitter (.960 MLB OPS in 98 PA), he’s relegated to the DH spot. The problem is that the Nationals have two other DH types, Joey Meneses and Dominic Smith.

Matt Vierling (7): Has started in seven of nine games while hitting .286/.333/.429 with 1 HR and 1 SB. Balanced player with 15 HR/15 SB upside if given 600 PA.

Gavin Sheets (7): He has been the DH with Eloy Jimenez on the IL and the White Sox face only righties this upcoming week.

Franchy Cordero (7): He has only been facing righties and the Yankees are scheduled to face seven this week. In a small sample, the 28-year-old has improved his plate discipline (34% K% to 20% and 16% SwStr% to 11%). I’m just not going to get too excited for a guy who has hit for a combined .209/.280/.359 with 11 HR and 6 SB in 453 PA over the past three seasons.

Rob Refsnyder (7): While the Yankees face a ton of righties coming up, the Red Sox face a bunch of lefties for it’s Refsnyder time.

Cora mentioned this postgame and it's actually nuts:

Probables upcoming:
Joey Wentz (L) (today)
Matthew Boyd (L)
Josh Fleming (L)
Shane McClanahan (L)
Zach Eflin (R)
Jeffrey Springs (L)
Patrick Sandoval (L)
Tyler Anderson (L)
Reid Detmers (L)
José Suarez (L)

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) April 8, 2023

He hits lefties better than righties but it is not lights out (career .730 OPS vs LHP, .632 OPS vs RHP). There is probably a better hitter than the right-handed version of Refsnyder on most waiver wires.

Alex Call (7): Started six straight games while leading off over the last three. If he can keep a spot in the lineup, projections have his around 18 HR and 10 SB over a full season. Not an elite talent, but a fine fourth or fifth outfielder.

Luke Raley (6): He only plays against righties and the Rays are scheduled to face five next week. He’s been great when he starts (3 HR, 1.156 OPS) so just make sure the plate appearances keep coming.

Adam Frazier (5): He’s hitting (.320/.414/.560, 1 HR, 2 SB) and playing (started seven of nine games). In some deeper leagues, that’s all a manager can ask out of player.

Kevin Kiermaier (5): Another instance of a guy hitting (.375/.419/.600) and paying (started seven of ten).

Carlos Santana (5): Started every game this year while hitting .235/.333/.441 with 2 HR.

Starters

Braxton Garrett (8): Garrett was effective last season (3.58 ERA, 9.2 K/9) and is now back in the rotation. He is messing with his pitch mix some by featuring his sinker more (23% to 35%) and not his four-seamer (25% to 11%). His only swing-and-miss pitch is his slider with a 26% SwStr%. The only issue is if he’ll remain in the rotation when Johnny Cueto returns from the IL after a minimum stay.

Bryce Elder (8): Elder has one of the nicest two-steps this week (vs CIN, @ KC). While he struggled in the first half of last season, he came out lights out in the second half (2.31 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.00 WHIP) with some changes (ditched cutter, added four-seamer). In his first start this year, he nearly doubled the use of his slider (27% to 41%) and cut his sinker usage (43% to 28%). His slider has been his best pitch over the past two seasons (16% SwStr%). He might end up as bench streamer.

Matt Strahm (8): I think Strahm was a reasonable gamble for his two-start week (vs MIA, @ CIN). He is transitioning for long reliever to starter. In his first official start, he threw 60 pitches. Hopefully he can get to 75 and possibly a Win.

He’s added a cutter (sometimes labeled as slider) and it gives him a two good non-fastballs.

It might be the time to add him on the cheap, especially if he shoves in his two starts this week.

Kris Bubic (7): Bubic got a ton of hype yesterday after allowing just two hits over six shutout innings. The reason everyone was after Bubic was because he hit the trifecta of pitcher improvement:

1. Fewer walks. After posting a 4.0 K/9 or higher in his first three seasons, he just has 1 walk in 11 IP so far.
2. More velocity. His four-seam velocity is up over 1 mph.
3. Improved pitch mix. He’s not throwing his fastball as much (51% to 40%) and added a good slider (126 Stuff+) with already good changeup (27% SwStr%). The big improvement this season is the addition of a slider (14% SwStr%).

It’s tough to know where is new talent level will stabilize but everything is pointing up.

Wade Miley (7): He has a two step at Arizona and at San Diego. I just wasn’t going to take a chance with him even though he allowed no runs in his first six-inning start. His fastball clocks in at just 89 mph and a changeup is his out pitch. I guess he’s a fine value play with a wide range of outcomes.

Hunter Gaddis (6): Gaddis is an extreme flyball pitcher (21% GB% in the majors, 29% in AAA in ’22). His strikeout (6.9 K/9) and walk (3.2 BB/9) aren’t great and he faces the Yankees and Cole this week. The only reason to see rostering him would be his two start week in two weeks when he faces Detroit and Miami.

Chris Flexen 플렉센 (5): He is in Seattle’s rotation and has used his flyball nature (34% GB% over the past two season) to get easy outs to keep his ERA (3.68) way under his ERA estimators (4.55 FIP, 5.09 xFIP).

Relievers

Miguel Castro (5): Seems to be in the mix for Saves in Arizona.