Big Kid Adds (Week 24)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Trevor Story (9): Story returned from the IL and this was unexpected since he was not supposed to return this season. I’m suspect of early returns (e.g. Bryce Harper in 2023) because the hitters seem to struggle until they reach their original return timeframe. This theory jives with Story because his skills don’t seem to be back.

Stat: Value

  • Sprint Speed: 27.9 ft/s (career-low, 2 for 4 in stolen base attempts)
  • AvgEV: 85 mph (career-low)
  • maxEV: 102 mph (career-low)
  • Contact%: 72% (similar to 2022 and 2023 when he posted a 31% K%)

It doesn’t seem like he’s healthy (.575 OPS) and I don’t feel like there is time left in the season to find out. Pass.

Jonny DeLuca (6): DeLuca started to see more playing time (seven straight starts going into Sunday FAAB), so a reasonable add. Additionally, he’s been on fire in September hitting .351/.368/.595 with 2 HR and 3 SB. Two noticeable changes from the first half to the second half are fewer strikeouts (26% K% to 18%) and more flyballs (44% GB% to 29%)

Joey Bart (6): Bart came off the IL and should be added with the season he is having (13 HR, .267 AVG).

Jake Fraley (5): With the Reds facing seven this week, Fraley was a semi-obvious add. He’s only been facing righties this season with a .734 OPS against them (.621 OPS vs RHP).

Grant McCray (5): When dealing with prospects, I start my analysis with Steamer600 comps; they aren’t encouraging for McCray.

He projects for decent speed and power but the on-base skills are lacking.

The projections and results match with the possibility of more power. He has an expected .231 AVG (40% K%) and 3 SB in 81 PA. As for the power, he is up to 5 HR (7 barrels, 31% HR/FB%). In AAA, he hit a ball at 110 mph that would rank 175th of 252 qualified batters around guys like Rhys Hoskins, Andrés Giménez, and Jeremy Peña.

A decent dart for a fantasy team needing the power and speed but can handle the batting average/on-base percentage drain.

Starters

Paul Blackburn (7): Blackburn was supposed to come off the IL with a potential two-step against the Blue Jays and Phillies. He’s still feeling pain and the team has come out and said that he’s not going to start this week. Ignore.

Jakob Junis (5): The Reds started Junis on Saturday where he went 5 IP (73 pitches) with 0 ER, 5 K, and 1 BB against the Mets. It’s unknown if he’ll start again or go back to the bullpen.

Junis hasn’t changed much over the season as he continues with a heavy slider (47% usage, 13% SwStr%) approach. One change to monitor is that over his last three games, he’s doubled his four-seam usage from 8% to 15%. While the pitch’s STUPH grades are below average, he is getting a 14% SwStr% on the pitch. The pitch comps don’t project as much swing-and-miss but they still like this four-seamer.

Valente Bellozo (5): Bellozo was added for the simple reason he was scheduled to face the Pirates and Washington this week. Against the Pirates, he allowed 1 ERA (3 R), 2 K,  and 1 BB in 5.1 IP.

On top of the easy matchups, a .247 BABIP keeps his 1.28 WHIP and 3.57 ERA (5.70 xFIP) in check. He will run a lower-than-normal BABIP because of his flyball nature (26% GB%, 13% PU%, 1.7 HR/9). The underlying skills have been so bad for the Bellozo and his 89-mph fastball. Of the 163 starters with 50 IP, his 7.5% K%-BB% is the 10th lowest. His 5.9 K/9 is the 5th lowest. He’s relying on flyball outs to get by

The flyball nature is insane (8% GB% on his cutter) and my pERA, which accounts for extreme groundball and flyball pitchers, values him as a 5.11 ERA pitcher. That value is better than the mid to high-5.00 ERA estimators but still unrosterable. Gamble away.

Relievers

Luke Weaver (9): While Weaver got the last Save for the Yankees, I’m unsure if he’s the closer. On the 9th, he came into the game in the top of the 8th inning with a three-run lead. On Wednesday, he threw in the 11th inning of a tied game.

Weaver seems like a nice add if someone needs a good arm to provide decent ratios (0.99 WHIP, 3.24 ERA), a few strikeouts (10.0 K/9), and maybe a Win or Save.

Jesus Tinoco (6): Tinoco (10 K/9, 3.34 ERA, 97 mph FBv) was added with the hope he’s the closer in Miami. Looking at past setup usage, it is tough to know for sure with George Soriano (5.54 ERA, 9.7 K/9) and John McMillon (1.50 ERA, 9.8 K/9) also pitching before Calvin Faucher Saves. With high uncertainty, Tinoco seems to be next in line. On August 31st, Tinoco got the hold before Fauchner’s Save. Two days before that, Tinoco debuted in the eighth. Miami added a run to no longer make it a Save and Fauchner closed out the game.

If I were to put odds on who is the closer now, it would be:

Tinoco: 60%
McMillon: 30%
Other: 10%

Dennis Santana (5): Santana appears to be the backup closer in Pittsburgh behind Aroldis Chapman. Santana has been acceptable this season with a 4.20 ERA (3.87 xFIP), 8.8 K/9, and 1.15 WHIP. I know Chapman has struggled as the closer but I’m not sure Santana is the answer. Play this situation day-to-day with a couple dozen days left in the season.

Players Added in NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Trevor Story 9 $70 $1
Luke Weaver 9 $29 $1
Paul Blackburn 7 $8 $3
Jesus Tinoco 6 $25 $1
Jonny DeLuca 6 $13 $1
Joey Bart 6 $10 $1
Valente Bellozo 5 $12 $2
Dennis Santana 5 $8 $3
Jake Fraley 5 $6 $2
Jakob Junis 5 $5 $1
Grant McCray 5 $4 $2
Max Scherzer 4 $19 $8
Cade Povich 4 $15 $5
Ezequiel Duran 4 $15 $1
Alec Marsh 4 $15 $2
Casey Mize 4 $11 $1
Pavin Smith 4 $8 $1
Keider Montero 4 $7 $2
Edouard Julien 4 $7 $1
Kody Clemens 4 $6 $1
Chas McCormick 4 $6 $3
Nick Fortes 4 $4 $1
Matt Strahm 4 $4 $3
Patrick Bailey 4 $4 $1





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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tomerafan
1 month ago

I’ll throw a deep dark horse into the mix for starting pitchers. In dynasty leagues, where I have space, I’m adding Julian Aguiar of the Reds. He’s a tweak on the sinker away from being a solid #3/4, imho, and that’s something I’m happy to find and stash in deep leagues.

His sinker is simply catching way too much plate and not sinking enough. And it’s the pitch he throws the most. But what encourages me is that his cutter (sometimes classed as a slider) was seen as his worst pitch in the minors… and it’s been his BEST pitch in the majors, because it’s the pitch he’s worked on the most this season. If he can spend the offseason fixing up the sinker, he’s going to have a nice mix. And he plays in the NL Central, which I like for a young pitcher.