Big Kid Adds (Week 16)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

A short list this week for several reasons. First, just coming off the short week, few roster decisions could be made on three games. Also, several “bad” starters haven’t thrown yet, so little rotation churn. Next, people are waiting for trades to start trickling in. Finally, teams could be checking out.

Batters

Adrian Del Castillo (11): In three games (12 PA), Del Castillo has a .917 OPS after a 1.019 OPS in the minors. While normally a catcher, he’s only been a DH over his first three games up, but has been benched with Marte back. Del Castillo needs to be evaluated in two ways: talent and playing time.

As for the talent, he hits hard line drives. They lead to a high BABIP and the occasional home run. While he may strike out around a 30% K% clip, he has a decent eye and can take a walk. Based on his talent and being catcher-qualified, he should be rostered in all leagues.

The problem is that the playing time might not be there yet. In AAA, he had more games at DH than at catcher. And from various scouting reports, his catcher defense grades out as below average to poor. He needs to be the team’s DH to get consistent at-bats. The team already had one in Pavin Smith.

How I’d approach him is to add, bench, and then see if any playing time materializes after the All-Star break.

Otto Kemp (8): While Kemp is not that talented (2 HR, 1 SB, .260/.330/.385), he now moves into the third base job with Alec Bohm on the IL. The 25-year-old should have a job for at least a week.

Since Kemp was promoted in early June, I have been expecting more from him. In 269 PA in AAA, he accumulated 14 HR and 11 SB. In 2024, it was 16 HR and 20 SB in 529 PA. In 106 major league plate appearances, he has just 2 HR (8 Barrels) and 1 SB (2 CS).

Right now, he feels like an accumulator in a Santiago Espinal sort of way.

Luke Keaschall (5): I am a little surprised Keaschall wasn’t added in more leagues last week. He could be a game-changer in stolen bases (11 SB in 99 combined plate appearances). With the Twins’ hitters now “healthy”, his playing time is unsure, but rumors have Willi Castro being traded. Also, Brooks Lee is proving that he’s not a major league regular (81 wRC+).

Jordan Walker (5): He posted a 64 wRC+ before going on the IL. Teams refuse to throw him fastballs, and his strikeout rate has increased each season (22% K% to 28% to 33%). He has a 15% or higher swinging-strike rate on all secondary pitches. Since he has no patience, he continues to hack away at these downside pitches. This is a blind faith that he’ll pull it all together for a 20/20 season.

Starters

Tomoyuki Sugano (9): Teams added Sugano for his two-start week at Cleveland and home against Colorado. This move was a gamble since Sugano has struggled this year with a 4.54 ERA (4.74 xFIP), 1.35 WHIP, and just a 5.5 K/9. Of the 63 pitchers with at least 100 IP, his 8.3% K%-BB% ranks 60th. There are no signs of him getting better, only worse. Over the first two months, he posted a 3.23 ERA (4.45 xFIP). Since then, it was a 6.62 ERA (4.95 xFIP).

On Monday, the Guardians lit him up for 3 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, and 4 K over 3.2 IP. Sometimes these bets pay off, sometimes they don’t.

Ben Brown (7): I’m usually a die-hard fan of just focusing on strikeouts and walks. Brown’s 18% K%-BB% would rank 20th among qualified starters. The reason I don’t buy into Brown is that he struggles to get left-handed batters out. (Brandon Pfaadt has the same issues). Lefties are hitting .302/.366/.560 against him with 11 HR in 175 PA. That’s effectively what Byron Buxton’s production this year ( .292/.353/.583 , 23 HR in 348 PA).

He has been trying to add a changeup and threw it seven times on Monday without generating a single swing-and-miss. The only available STUPH grade couldn’t go lower at 20.

Bryce Elder: Like with Sugano, these Elder adds were based on Elder’s two-starts against San Francisco and at Texas. Elder has consistently shown the ability to be a 4.50 ERA talent. This year he’s right inline with a 5.63 ERA (4.07 xFIP), 1.55 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9. His WHIP is doing more ratio damage than his ERA. There were no signs of a recent turnaround. He was decent in May when he posted a 1.6 BB/9, but the walks jumped to 4.1 BB/9 in June and 3.8 BB/9 in July.

Against the Giants, he struggled through 5 IP with 3 BB, 8 H, 3 ER, and just 1 K. At least he got these gambling managers a Win. We’ll see how he performs against an improving Rangers’ team on the weekend.

Chris Flexen 플렉센 (6): I can’t remember if Flexen was supposed to be Monday’s starter instead of Brown. That is the only reason he could have been added. Hopefully, those managers didn’t start him when the news came out about Brown starting instead. (I was nosy, I found out he was started in a third of these leagues.)

Flexen came in Monday to clean up the Brown mess and made a bigger one. Over 3 IP, he allowed 5 HR, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, and ZERO strikeouts. His ERA jumped an entire point from the appearance. Flexen needs to stay in the bullpen. Over his career, he has a 3.81 ERA coming out of the pen and a 4.99 ERA while starting.

Relievers

None