Big Kid Adds (Week 12)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Note: Just four starters were readily available and were added in half of the leagues. And two were rookies with this free agent run being the first time they could be rostered. Fantasy managers are going to hold onto every reasonable starter they have and stream the hitters.

Batters

Edouard Julien (9): Julien is back in the majors with Jorge Polanco headed to the IL for a few weeks. In all three trips to the majors, Julien has struggled with strikeouts (35% K%) and pitchers have fed him a steady stream of non-fastballs. He has major issues with changeups as seen by his 29% SwStr% against them.

He has an .872 OPS against righties and a .286 OPS against lefties so there is some platoon risk with him.

He projects to have 15 HR, 10 SB, with a .230 to .240 AVG. Batters with similar hitting projections are Robbie Grossman, Mike Tauchman, and Connor Joe. All are streamable but probably not must roster.

Elly De La Cruz (8): Covered in detail by the entire world.

Emmanuel Rivera (8): A .413 BABIP has him hitting .361/.391/.472 with 1 HR and 1 SB. There could be more home runs coming but he’s probably only good for one or two more steals.

He’s a great option in points leagues with his .864 OPS but is a deep league volume play in roto leagues. Also, he might get first base eligibility (5 games) soon.

Michael A. Taylor (8): Looking over league leaders last week, I was a little surprised to see Taylor tied for 22nd with 11 thefts. While his .231 AVG is a drag, he has contributed with nine home runs. He should continue to get at-bats as the Twins centerfielder.

Mauricio Dubón (8): He has lead off in eight of the last nine games while hitting .300/.326/.401 with 2 HR and 5 SB. While not an ideal starter in, even 15-team leagues, his middle infield and outfield eligibility is helpful as a bench fill-in.

Dylan Carlson (7): He’s off the IL and starting in right field.

Kerry Carpenter (7): Carpenter was one of the sneaky adds who provides both power (4 HR, projected for 25 with 600 PA) and batting average (.279 AVG, .250 AVG projection). My rest-of-season comps are Ryan Mountcastle, Brandon Drury, and Josh Jung, guys rostered in all leagues.

Tommy Pham (6): Pham was a beneficiary of Pete Alonso going on the IL. Mark Canha moved to first and Pham has started in all four games since Alonso’s injury. Pham’s profile is similar to the above Taylor, a nice power-speed combo but could be a drag in batting average.

Corey Julks (6): Julks has been bordering on the edge of being fantasy relevant for a few weeks. His biggest issue has been playing time. In the last 10 games, he has started in six of them. In the 10 games before that, it was also six starts (so 12 of 20 if you’re keeping track!). The key stat behind his adds is his 10 stolen bases. It helps that he has some power (5 HR) and a decent batting average (.262 AVG). Increased playing time is his upside.

Willie Calhoun (6): When Calhoun has started over the last six games (four of six starts), he has hit in the top third of the lineup. So far this season, the journeyman has a .240 AVG with 5 HR.

He probably needs full-time at-bats to be fantasy relevant with his limited talent profile.

Pavin Smith (6): Smith has started nine straight games while either batting first or sixth. He has a similar profile to Calhoun where his full-season stats project at 20 HR, 0 SB, and a .240 AVG. In deeper leagues where volume is king, Smith will be an option but there is no upside.

Matt Vierling (6): After my Sunday chat, I was catching up on the news and read the following on MLBTradeRumors:

On the plus side, Kerry Carpenter was activated off the IL earlier this week, and Matt Vierling may also soon be returning for Monday’s game with the Braves.

I added Vierling to a few of my waiver wire lists and got a couple of shares.

The key with Vierling is that he provides a nice balance of speed (4 SB) and power (4 HR) while not being a batting average sink (.247 AVG). The one thing Vierling brings to the table that most others don’t is his upside. Here is his Baseball Savant snapshot.

Three items stick out.

• His hard-hit metrics are in the top one-third.
• A 96th percentile Sprint Speed.
• He is hitting everything to centerfield and could start to pull the ball into the shorter corners.

There are several ways for Vierling to improve such as stealing more bases or using his power to pull some more home runs.

Mike Tauchman (6): I knew Tauchman was going to be on this list immediately after FAAB ran on Sunday. I check on several successful managers’ adds to see if I missed anyone and Tauchman was added by the same manager in five leagues. I’m not sure if Tauchman was the manager’s top player because all 19 of his adds were for $1 (including three of Willie Calhoun and four of Trevor May).

Including Sunday, Tauchman was in the Cubs lineup for six straight games and had hit first or second in the last three. In 73 PA, the 32-year-old is hitting .259/.389/.310 with 0 HR and 2 SB. A cheap volume add.

Will Brennan (5): The 25-year-old has started 11 straight games while hitting .372/.413/.605 with 2 HR and 2 SB over the last two weeks. Of all the hitters profiled today (besides Cruz), he would be the one I would target in all formats, especially for teams needing batting average help. He projects as a 10 HR, 15 SB, and .275 AVG.

Yainer Diaz (5): Besides Brennan, Diaz is next on the list of difference makers. First, the Astros would like Diaz to play more.

“I like when he’s in the lineup. I like what he brings to the table. I like that he has power, his OPS is climbing. Ultimately, I’d like to see him in the lineup more,” Brown said before Tuesday’s game at Rogers Centre. “But Dusty is running the team, he’s the manager, and it’s his job ultimately to find a place for him to get in the lineup. I think he will do that. I think it’s a matter of the dog days of August, the middle of July, he could get a little bit more time.”

The catcher-qualified bat has started in six of the last 10 games, including two straight.

On the season, he is hitting .261/.281/.443 with 3 HR. In two catcher formats, at least one team could use Diaz as an improvement. In half or fewer plate appearances than the catchers ahead of him, Diaz is already the 37th ranked catcher.

Starters

Andrew Abbott (9): Well, I’m easily the low person on Abbott with my projections putting his ERA over 5.00. The 0.00 ERA is nice and shiny but it is the least predictable stat going forward, especially in just 11 IP. His STUFFF measures so far are well below average with none of his pitches getting above-average results. Additionally, he has a 5.4 BB/9 (with 0 HR allowed) and a 38% Ball% (equiv 3.6 BB/9). So far his ERA estimators are over 5.00 besides FIP that loves his 0.0 HR/9.

This past weekend, I was focusing on middle relievers instead of him.

AJ Smith-Shawver (9): If you thought I didn’t like Abbott, you should read my take on Smith-Shawver. The story behind Smith-Shawver rocketing through minors is great but he just doesn’t look ready. Again, a 0.00 ERA along with a 0.78 WHIP (.150 BABIP) will increase the shine. In just seven innings, he has a combined 6% SwStr%. He has thrown his four-seamer 66 times and it only has two swings-and-misses.

His walks haven’t been much better. He posted a 3.3 BB/9 in 33 minor league innings and a 3.5 BB/9 in the majors so far (7 IP). Currently, he has a 43% Ball% which equates to a 5.7 BB/9.

And finally, for his STUFFF, his botERA is at 6.55 ERA and he has an 88 Pitching+.

Remove the ERA and the great story, he would not be on any target lists.

Colin Rea (6): Rea was a reasonable choice compared to the other available options. What I noticed with Rea was that while his season-long stats weren’t the best (4.47 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, 8.3 K/9), he has been great so far in June (2.70 ERA, 2.83 xFIP). The key has been his strikeout rate jumping from under 8.0 K/9 to 11.7 K/9.

After looking through his arsenal and approach, nothing has changed. I have his current talent around 4.40 ERA which is streamable in the current run-scoring environment.

As for his schedule, he has Twins this week, the Diamondbacks next week, and a two-step against the Mets and Pittsburgh the week after that.

Wade Miley (5): Miley’s schedule probably was behind his adds with Pittsburgh this week and Cleveland next week. While he is still working his way back from an injury (lat), managers are willing to take a chance on him. Miley made a AA rehab start but there was no news on his fastball velocity.

His 5.2 K/9 is almost not helpful but I think there could be some upside. It would be nice to see him drop his cutter and four-seam usage (combined 65% usage) and throw his slider (20% SwStr%) and change (10% SwStr%) more.

Relievers

Trevor May (7): Since returning from the IL, May has three Saves with a 3.48 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, and a 1.06 WHIP. While not ideal, he was an available closer with a job.