Big Kid Adds (7/26/22)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues:

Domingo Germán (8): I still don’t get the urgency to roster a pitcher coming back from a shoulder injury with a career 4.63 ERA and 1.7 HR/9. He wasn’t even dominating minor league hitters (11 K in 20 IP from A to AAA). He wasn’t rosterable last season when he posted a 4.25 ERA with similar ERA estimators (4.41 FIP and 4.39 xFIP). He’s not exactly streamable since his next three opponents aren’t pushovers (Mets, Mariners, Cards). It’s possible that he’s right at the replacement level for rosterable starters.

A few nuggets can be taken from his first start. His average fastball velocity (93.4 mph) was in line with previous seasons. He used the same pitch mix (curve, four-seam, sinker, change). He threw three innings on 58 pitches. Maybe I’ll be wrong on this take but I’m fine with missing out.

JJ Bleday (7): The 24-year-old outfielder got into the NFBC pool because of a pinch-hit at-bat on Saturday. I spent quite a bit of time going over his profile. He seems to be a power-only (20 HR in 367 AAA PA) bat who will chip in some steals (1 in the majors already). The home run approach will mean a ton of flyball outs and a possible low BABIP dragging down his batting average. His average will take a further hit from his strikeout rate (27% in AAA) with projections having it around .220.

He has always posted a decent walk rate (16% in AAA) so he won’t be as much of a drag in on-base leagues. In the right format and team construction, a reasonable addition.

Nick Pratto (6): When Pratto was called up to help fill in for the Royal Ten, most people thought he’d head back to the minors. Instead, an injury to Edward Olivares opened a roster spot for the top-50 prospect. In 337 AAA PA, Pratto was hitting .240/.374/.484 with 17 HR and 8 SB. In 31 MLB PA, he’s held his own so far by .280/.387/.520 hitting with 1 HR.

Our Depth chart projection has him at .237/.324/.451 with 25 and 6 SB for a full season. With first base full of power bats, he might be an option for a team needing a few more steals.

Ezequiel Duran (6): I missed adding Duran to my waiver wire article since I didn’t notice he was starting (five straight starts). The 23-year-old provides balanced production (.266/.301/.418, 2 HR, 3 SB) and a little speed (96th percentile Sprint Speed) from third base.

He’s got a little Yandy Díaz in him where he hits the ball hard (110 maxEV) but on the ground (1 degree LA, 61% GB%). He could be an extremely interesting player if he starts raising his launch angle.

Victor Robles (6): Robles has started seven straight and moved to the leadoff spot yesterday. So far this season, he’s hitting .235/.298/.318 with 3 HR and 11 SB. A .616 OPS is below replacement level for a rosterable major leaguer but it’s tough to tell if the Nationals are a major league team right now.

He has been hitting better in July (.255/.300/.383) and has been changing throughout the season. His strikeouts and groundballs are down to his historic levels.

I’m not sure why he’s trying to air it out. He’s not a power hitter (1% percentile in AvgEV and HardHit%) so flyballs will be easy out.

On the positive side, is Sprint Speed is up, but still not to his bests.

Season: Sprint Speed (ft/s)
2017: 30.9
2018: 29.3
2019: 29.4
2020: 28.0
2021: 28.3
2022: 28.6

Desperation stolen base add.

Bobby Dalbec (5): With Rafael Devers on the IL, Dalbec has slid over to playing third base (15 games). On the season, Dalbec has been serviceable by hitting .203/.280/.347 with 8 HR and 2 SB. A 33% K% is dragging down his batting average. Additionally, he’s struggled against righties with a .555 OPS and a .787 OPS against lefties.

He’s not even heated up with a .666 OPS in July with a 49% K%. There is nothing positive in his profile and I prefer Duran or Pratto as corner bats.

Eduardo Rodriguez (5): There is no major news about Rodriguez, just that he is ramping up after taking some personal time off:

Eduardo Rodriguez is beginning to ramp back up. Could be back with team sometime next month

— Chris McCosky (@cmccosky) July 23, 2022

Rodriguez was struggling in his first eight starts. His strikeout (7.9 K/9) and walk (3.9 BB/9) rates were both the worst in six years. His ERA was at 4.38 with matching ERA estimators. Part of is struggles might be from a career-low 92-mph fastball that for some reason he three more (52% to 57%). His last start was particularly disturbing with his fastball velocity down to just 90 mph. The swinging-strike rate on his fastball dropped from 14% last season to 5% this year.

I liked him coming into the season hoping he could just repeat 2018 to 2021 when he had 10 K/9 and a high-3.00’s ERA. Also, he had 19 K and just 2 BB in 17 IP in Spring Training. Nothing seemed off at the time.

I’m not sure I want to roster him for an entire month, especially not knowing his velocity.

Jake Lamb (5): I’m a little flabbergasted to see Lamb on a most added list. Lamb is starting against righties and the Dodgers are scheduled to face five of them this week with three being in Colorado. In 51 PA, Lamb is hitting .250/.353/.500 with 2 HR and 0 SB (.878 OPS vs RHP, .333 OPS vs LHP).

Lamb and Trayce Thompson (added in four leagues) are streamable options as long as Chris Taylor remains on the IL.

Players added in four leagues: Yusei Kikuchi, Anthony Bass, Raimel Tapia, Yerry De Los Santos, Trayce Thompson, and A.J. Puk