Ben Pasinkoff’s 10 Bold Predictions

1.) Nathan Eovaldi breaks out in New York.

Moving to the AL from the NL or from Miami’s park to Yankee Stadium doesn’t often signal a breakout, but Eovaldi’s other skills could lend itself to a nice draft day bargain. Eovaldi will still only be 26 on Opening Day and while his 6 wins and 4.37 ERA last year looks unimpressive, a 3.37 FIP and 199.2 IP with a clean bill of health is certainly promising. Eovaldi possesses massive MPH (95.7 average fastball velocity last year) but light on swing and miss stuff (8.4% SwStr% below the league average of 9.4%). The 2013 version of Garrett Richards averaged 94.8 MPH with a 9.2% SwStr%. He increased his slider usage last year, bumped up the swinging strikes and had a breakout year. This is the path that Eovaldi will follow in 2015. Whether or not Eovaldi has a large increase in skill, his peripheral number’s last year suggest ERAs in the 3’s not the 4’s and if he finds a few more swings and misses, the rewards will be glorious. Wily Peralta is another pitcher with similar talents that could break out in 2015.

2.) Marcus Semien out performs other New A’s infielder Ben Zobrist and is a top 10 shortstop.

Between AAA and the majors last year, Semien hit .253 with 21 home runs, 10 stolen bases and 167 R+RBI. Average will likely be a weak spot for Semien and Steamer only projects him to hit .239 but 16 HR and 9 SB in 571 PAs is nothing to sneeze at. With Ian Desmond getting some love as a top 20 player overall, Semien is another SS that could hit 2020 without the 2^nd round price tag.

3.) Mike Moustakas pulls an Alex Gordon, but stays at third base.

After years of disappointment, Alex Gordon broke out at age 27 on the Royals. After years of disappointment, Mike Moustakas will break out at age 27 on the Royals. Moustakas hasn’t had one year of being a league average hitter, consistently posting wRC+ below 100. However, Steamer projects him to hit .248/.305/.415 for a 102 wRC+. For a power hitter, Moustakas has incredible bat control. As strikeouts are flying up in the majors, he had a 14.8% K%, well below the league average of 20.4%. Of course, what Moustakas does with that contact is important as his .220 BABIP did him no favors last year. But, there is hope. As Mike Podhorzer wrote earlier, Moustakas has HR upside and as he enters his age-27 season, this is the year he harnesses the skills that made him one of the best prospects.

4.)  Kolten Wong is not a top 20 second baseman.

Kolten Wong is getting a lot of not only sleeper love this offseason but “this guy is a top dawg” love as well. Wong showed some flashy HR and SB totals last year but he will also be batting at the bottom of the lineup in St. Louis. Wong was particularly streaky last year, and while I disagree with demoting a young guy’s first real go around in the majors due to a few struggles, Wong will have to avoid such bad streaks if he wants to maintain every day status in St. Louis. Wong’s fantasy value (HR + SB) is greater than his real life value (OBP < .300; 90 wRC+) and he’ll have to improve in real life in order to get enough appearances.

5.) Jake Marisnick goes 20/20 and provides top 30 OF production.

Jake Marisnick will be 24 years old on Opening Day. Jake Marisnick has an everday slot in the Astros lineup. Jake Marisnick has some pop. Jake Marisnick has some speed. He wasn’t productive in his first go around with the Astros last year but 2015 will be a different story. If you need average, look past Marisnick but if you want a sneaky 20/20 OF, he’s your man.

6.) Chris Carter leads MLB in homers.

This isn’t a particularly surprising prediction considering Carter’s 37 homers last year were 2^nd in the league, but there isn’t much chatter about his bat this year. Of course, he might have been lucky, but I say he eschews Podhorzer’s sound logic and leads the majors in home runs.

7.) The Texas Rangers are full of comebacks.

Shin Soo Choo will provide the value we saw before 2015 (20/20 with 90+ runs) . Prince Fielder returns and shows the promise we thought we could see in Texas (30 HR/100 RBI). Jurickson Profar…well that’s just a sad story.  Yu Darvish…well that’s just a sad story. Back to la la land for a moment, Elvis Andrus gets his batting average closer to .300 and combines that with 30+ stolen bases to be a top 10 shortstop.

8.) Christian Yelich hits 25 homers.

With Yelich’s batted ball profile (61.6% GB% for his career) there is little reason to suspect he will now get more lift on the ball and kill less worms, but this space is for bold predictions, right? While Yelich’s ground ball tendencies certainly saps some of his power, he’s also a line drive machine, is only 23 years old and has solid athleticism in a large 6’3” frame. I don’t believe the Marlins invested alomst $50 million in Yelich, for him to top out as a 10 HR corner outfielder. While Michael Brantley has better bat control, he’s an example of what can happen when an athletic and strong outfielder that makes consistent contact can do as he enters his physical prime. I may be a few years early on this but here’s to Yelich will hitting 25 homers this season.

9.) Pedro Alvarez is the new Crush Davis-lite. 

I’m talking about the 2013 version. While I don’t think Alvarez will hit 50+ homers, this is the year he fully taps into his hitting abilities. Alvarez has always exhibited vast power, albeit with many wings and misses. Last year his HR/RB% fell from 26.3% (25% in 2012) to 16.2%. However, his stirkeout percentage also fell from over 30% to a more manageable 25.3%. This year Alvarez keeps his whiffs down but gets back to his previous HR/FB% and hits at least 30 homers without an average that will bring down your team. The thorn in this prediction might be Corey Hart stealing at bats from Alvarez against lefties, but if Pedro hits like he’s able, at bats shouldn’t be a problem.

10.) The Yankees rotation stays reasonably healthy.

Betting against pitching injuries, especially on the Yankees staff might be a fools errand but Masahiro Tanaka‘s elbow, C.C. Sabathia’s knee and Michael Pineda’s shoulder hold up well enough for all to provide top 50 value among starters. Thus far this spring, Tanaka has looked incredible but more importantly his elbow has held up. Sabathia has been hit or miss but his body feels good and his change-up could remain an incredible weapon as he moves into his late 30’s, provided his body doesn’t completely deteriorate. Meanwhile, Michael Pineda has only been a great pitcher when on the mound, but that has eluded him. He’s still just 26 and has pitched with a clean bill of health this March. With this prediction and my first, I guess I’m bullish on the Yankees rotation, is that wishful thinking or just the deranged Yankee fan in me?