Batters Bat Speed Gainers & Decliners — April 20, 2026

Among qualified batters between 2023 and 2025, Statcast’s BatSpd has a 0.662 correlation with HR/FB rate, the highest among all the metrics in our Statcast – Bat Tracking section. So it follows that we should constantly be monitoring the biggest gainers and decliners as names on either list could either validate current performance or predict future performance. Let’s now discuss the hitters on each end of that spectrum.

We’ll start with the gainers. I arbitrarily chose 2.0 MPH in BatSpd as the minimum gain for this list.

Cam Smith is the first fantasy relevant name on this list, with a robust 3.5 MPH gain. He was already well above average last year, but now ranks fourth in baseball among qualified hitters. Last year’s strong BatSpd did nothing for his power, as his HR/FB was just 9.6% and ISO a shockingly low .122. There has been vast improvement this year, with a 16.7% HR/FB rate and .189 ISO,, but that BatSpd, combined with his HardHit% and Barrel% suggest there might actually be even more upside here. He still needs to hit a higher rate of fly balls to be come a big power source, but it’s clear he’s going to demolish the majority of his rest of season power projections that are still heavily weighing last year’s weak output. I never, ever buy high, but if I did, he would be one I would approve of.

It appears that Jonathan India has lost his starting job, with Michael Massey taking over as the Royals starting second baseman. Massey even started against a left yesterday, so this seemingly isn’t a strict platoon. The sample size here is pretty small so we’ll see if he could keep it up, but after a power outage last year and no speed to begin with, a rebound to at least double digit home runs is required to accrue deep league value.

Man, I so want to love Denzel Clarke, who has shown both power, speed, and excellent plate patience in the minors. Oh, and he plays fabulous defense. But strikeouts have gotten out of control in the Majors and his batted ball profile is crazy with tons of grounders and pop-ups and few line drives and fly balls. He’s already 26, which is a lot older than I assumed. He seems like a project, but one with a lot of fantasy upside if everything happens to click.

Graham Pauley has shown both power and speed in the minors, but has done little over less than half a season at the MLB level. Perhaps a jump in BatSpd to an above average level is what he needed to get his HR/FB rate into double digits. Still, it’ll be tough to earn much value stuck at the bottom of the lineup and serving on the strong side of a platoon.

Wenceel Pérez has an incredible .000 BABIP in 22 at-bats, but he’s hit the ball hard and has once again found himself with a starting job in Detroit. With some power and a touch of speed last year, he could be a nice little all-around contributor if that BatSpd gain sticks.

I was surprised to see Mark Vientos’ middling BatSpd in 2024 given the power he displayed, but now with this spike, he’s closer to what you would expect would match up with that power. Of course, both his HR/FB rate and ISO are even lower than last year, mainly thanks to a weak 5.1% Barrel%. I still think a return to the upper teens HR/FB rate level, at the very least, would be in the cards if he could keep a starting job. But as the Mets regulars return from the IL, he might find himself back on the bench soon.

What a tease Matt McLain was in Spring Training! His seven home runs and .472 ISO undoubtedly raised his price and got many excited that he was fully healthy after shoulder surgery in 2024, that may very well have sapped his power last year. So naturally, he’s still yet to homer, and is toting a microscopic .042 ISO. WHAT?! All this while his BatSpd is up 2.3 MPH. Oh, and his walk rate has skyrocketed, strikeout rate and SwStk% improved and he has already hit a ball this season with a higher EV than he did in all of the 2023 and 2025 regular season. Seems like he should be having a big start to the season, so it’s really surprising to see the actual results. The fact that he’s still hitting second despite the slump is a good sign. I’d be buying here.

Miguel Vargas was perfectly acceptable in deep leagues last year with below average BatSpd, but so far this year, a .161 BABIP has killed his production. The increased BatSpd hasn’t led to a higher HR/FB rate or ISO, though his HardHit% and Barrel% are sitting at career bests. I like this skill set overall, especially with the walk rate surge, and he has improved his SwStk% again. This should be a double digit HR/FB rate hitter.

Even with the BatSpd gain, Luke Keaschall is still well below average and his power output remains quite weak. A .250 BABIP has hampered his stolen base opportunities, but that should rebound, at least somewhat. That he remains in the middle of the order is a positive.

I’m not entirely sure why Colt Keith has been added in various leagues as he’s merely riding a ridiculous .417 BABIP, while doing nothing else. The BatSpd gain is a good sign, as we still await the power output he displayed in the minors in 2022 and 2023. With no speed, he really needs to convert the improved BatSpd into more power, as he doesn’t figure to be much of a contributor anywhere else.

Now let’s move on to the BatSpd decliners.

I was pretty optimistic about a Jesús Sánchez rebound given a full season in a more favorable home park. Instead, his BatSpd has plummeted and his power numbers are similar to last year. The good news is he has posted the lowest strikeout rate and SwStr% of his career, so there’s some semblance of hope if his BatSpd returns.

Randy Arozarena’s BatSpd is now well below league average?! This is quite the surprise. Both his HR/FB rate and ISO have been cut in half, and his FB% sits at just 21%. What is going on?! Oh, and he has also reduced his strikeout rate below 20% for the first time. It’s been a bizarre start to the season and it’ll be interesting to follow how these stats move over the rest of the season.

Yikes, Geraldo Perdomo, especially coming from a mark that was already low. He surprisingly hit 20 home runs last year as his HR/FB rate was double his previous career best. This year, he continues to make fabulous contact, but the fly balls have disappeared, and so far at least, his power has reverted back to pre-2025 days. He’s been a bust so far, aside from the six steals, but his .242 BABIP should at least rebound. I’m not buying here as he was an easy fade to begin with.

Not only did I think that Vinnie Pasquantino had even more HR/FB rate upside than he recorded last year, but I figured the closer fences this year would all but ensure he avoids power regression after last year’s breakout. Instead, his BatSpd is down and his HR/FB rate and ISO look like that of a speedy slap-hitter. Oh, and to add insult to injury, his strikeout rate has spiked to above 20%, despite a stable SwStr%. His FB% is up at a career high, so that could further boost his HR total if that HR/FB rate rebounds. I just don’t know if that’s going to be possible unless his BatSpd also rebounds.

Jeff McNeil in the Athletics’ new home run paradise?! It doesn’t matter with that low a BatSpd. Also not helping is a career low FB% well below 30%. Without speed and no longer much of a batting average contributor, his fantasy appeal is essentially gone.

I really liked a Heliot Ramos power surge after some strong Statcast metrics, but it’s going to be tougher if his BatSpd fails to rebound. Compounding matters is a strikeout rate skyrocketing over 30% and a FB% that has fallen below 30%. Surprisingly, his HardHit% and Barrel% remain excellent, so it’s hard to gauge what to expect the rest of the season.

I would love to know how Gleyber Torres managed a high teen and low 20% HR/FB rate during his first two seasons and hasn’t come anywhere close since. The BatSpd loss is going to make it even more difficult just to get back into double digits. I love the fat walk rate, which makes him pretty valuable in OBP leagues, but a lack of steals to go with the weak power means he’s not much of a fantasy factor anymore.

Daulton Varsho enjoyed a BatSpd surge last year, leading to his first 20%+ HR/FB rate, though that came in just half a season. This year, his BatSpd is back to where it was in 2024, which means there’s a better chance he ends with a HR/FB rate near his career average, as opposed to the inflated mark last year. The good news is he has markedly improved his strikeout rate, so we’ll see if that sticks.

Addison Barger’s BatSpd loss was a worry before he hit the IL, though at least it remained well above the league average. His Statcast metrics last year suggested even further HR/FB rate upside, so hopefully the BatSpd loss won’t hamper that upside too dramatically, or prove to just be a small sample artifact.

This is the second straight BatSpd decline for Michael Busch, and for a guy with his power, it’s shocking that his BatSpd was already below average last year. He’s still looking for his first home run, and his HardHit% is down at just 27.8%. On the positive side, his walk and strikeout rates are at career bests. I’m less inclined to bet on a power rebound knowing how below average that BatSpd is.

For the full list of BatSpd gainers and decliners, plus a plethora of additional metrics for both pitchers and batters updated weekly, visit ProjectingX.com to learn more about and subscribe to ProjectingX IQ.