Batted Ball Outliers: Starting Pitchers by Jeff Zimmerman October 14, 2011 Pitchers tend to induce different types of batted balls. Some are fly ball pitchers. Others induce ground balls. While there are always pitchers at the extremes, a few pitchers go beyond the norms on a yearly basis. Today, I am looking at pitchers whose 2011 batted ball data was outside the normal range of values. To get the extreme baselines, I took the the top and bottom values for a pitcher with over 400 IP total over the past 3 years. Here is a look at some pitchers that may be in store for some batted ball corrections in 2012 GB% and FB% Initally I planned on separating these two, but after looking at the data, they were easily combined. First, Tim Hudson had the highest GB% with 60.7% and Ted Lilly was lowest with 31.7% over the 3 years. No pitcher exceeded these numbers in 2012. With FB%, the two pitchers were just changed around with Ted Lilly having the highest FB% (49.9%) and Tim Hudson with the lowest (23.3%) Two pitchers did go below Hudson’s mark in 2011: Name FB% Tim Hudson 23.2% Jake Westbrook 22.8% Derek Lowe 22.5% Both Westbrook and Lowe are extreme GB pitchers, so not a huge surprise with these values. BABIP A few more names make the list above and below the 3-year BABIP extreme values: Name BABIP Ricky Nolasco 0.331 Edwin Jackson 0.330 Derek Lowe 0.327 Ryan Dempster 0.324 Ricky Nolasco 0.322 Ted Lilly 0.256 Cole Hamels 0.255 Jered Weaver 0.250 Josh Beckett 0.245 Ricky Romero 0.242 Justin Verlander 0.236 Jeremy Hellickson 0.233 Justin Verlander: After several years of being one of the most under rated aces in the league, I have a feeling his value will not be any higher than in 2012. I would be looking to sell high. Derek Lowe: Horrible 2011. Rumors have been circulated that Atlanta is looking to move him. Great chance to buy low. Edwin Jackson: Sadly, he may by one of the top 3-4 FA pitchers available this off season. He is probably going to get over paid with too many years. I would be extremely cautious about chasing Wins with him if he ends up going to an offensive juggernaut. LD% Some similar names here as on the BABIP list: Name LD% Edwin Jackson 24.9% Chris Carpenter 24.0% Ricky Nolasco 23.8% CC Sabathia 23.1% Randy Wolf 22.7% Hiroki Kuroda 22.0% Kyle Lohse 21.9% Ian Kennedy 21.9% Ricky Nolasco 21.8% Matt Latos 15.9% Jhoulys Chacin 15.4% Cole Hamels 15.0% Ricky Romero 14.2% CC Sabathia – He was hit hard and still had the season he did. Nice bit of information for later. Ian Kennedy – A good season and could have been better. With all of the high LD% pitchers, they seem to be decent pitchers. It looks like a nice group of pitchers to target for improvement next season. I will actually do a quick study on pitchers that exceeded a LD% and the results the next season. HR/FB% Name HR/FB% A.J. Burnett 17.0% Bronson Arroyo 15.9% Chris Volstad 13.6% Clayton Kershaw 5.6% Doug Fister 5.1% Roy Halladay 5.1% Matt Cain 3.7% A list with Matt Cain at what seems his normal position A couple of names stick out here: A.J. Burnett – Classic buy low candidate. Some readers may get hives just thinking about him. He will be worth taking a chance on in 2012. Doug Fister – He may get a little too much love from the post season. Be careful not to buy into the post season hype and over pay/draft.