Batted Ball Outliers: Starting Pitchers

Pitchers tend to induce different types of batted balls. Some are fly ball pitchers. Others induce ground balls. While there are always pitchers at the extremes, a few pitchers go beyond the norms on a yearly basis. Today, I am looking at pitchers whose 2011 batted ball data was outside the normal range of values.

To get the extreme baselines, I took the the top and bottom values for a pitcher with over 400 IP total over the past 3 years. Here is a look at some pitchers that may be in store for some batted ball corrections in 2012

GB% and FB%

Initally I planned on separating these two, but after looking at the data, they were easily combined. First, Tim Hudson had the highest GB% with 60.7% and Ted Lilly was lowest with 31.7% over the 3 years. No pitcher exceeded these numbers in 2012.

With FB%, the two pitchers were just changed around with Ted Lilly having the highest FB% (49.9%) and Tim Hudson with the lowest (23.3%) Two pitchers did go below Hudson’s mark in 2011:

Name	FB%
Tim Hudson	23.2%
Jake Westbrook	22.8%
Derek Lowe	22.5%

Both Westbrook and Lowe are extreme GB pitchers, so not a huge surprise with these values.

BABIP

A few more names make the list above and below the 3-year BABIP extreme values:

Name	BABIP
Ricky Nolasco	0.331
Edwin Jackson	0.330
Derek Lowe	0.327
Ryan Dempster	0.324
Ricky Nolasco	0.322
Ted Lilly	0.256
Cole Hamels	0.255
Jered Weaver	0.250
Josh Beckett	0.245
Ricky Romero	0.242
Justin Verlander	0.236
Jeremy Hellickson	0.233

Justin Verlander: After several years of being one of the most under rated aces in the league, I have a feeling his value will not be any higher than in 2012. I would be looking to sell high.

Derek Lowe: Horrible 2011. Rumors have been circulated that Atlanta is looking to move him. Great chance to buy low.

Edwin Jackson: Sadly, he may by one of the top 3-4 FA pitchers available this off season. He is probably going to get over paid with too many years. I would be extremely cautious about chasing Wins with him if he ends up going to an offensive juggernaut.

LD%

Some similar names here as on the BABIP list:

Name	LD%
Edwin Jackson	24.9%
Chris Carpenter	24.0%
Ricky Nolasco	23.8%
CC Sabathia	23.1%
Randy Wolf	22.7%
Hiroki Kuroda	22.0%
Kyle Lohse	21.9%
Ian Kennedy	21.9%
Ricky Nolasco	21.8%
Matt Latos	15.9%
Jhoulys Chacin	15.4%
Cole Hamels	15.0%
Ricky Romero	14.2%

CC Sabathia – He was hit hard and still had the season he did. Nice bit of information for later.

Ian Kennedy – A good season and could have been better.

With all of the high LD% pitchers, they seem to be decent pitchers. It looks like a nice group of pitchers to target for improvement next season. I will actually do a quick study on pitchers that exceeded a LD% and the results the next season.

HR/FB%

Name	HR/FB%
A.J. Burnett	17.0%
Bronson Arroyo	15.9%
Chris Volstad	13.6%
Clayton Kershaw	5.6%
Doug Fister	5.1%
Roy Halladay	5.1%
Matt Cain	3.7%

A list with Matt Cain at what seems his normal position

A couple of names stick out here:

A.J. Burnett – Classic buy low candidate. Some readers may get hives just thinking about him. He will be worth taking a chance on in 2012.

Doug Fister – He may get a little too much love from the post season. Be careful not to buy into the post season hype and over pay/draft.