Batted Ball Outliers: Regular Hitters
Batters have different hitting styles that allow unique batted ball profiles. Most hitters aren’t able to maintain extreme batted ball values over a few seasons. Here is a look at some regular hitters that should expect their 2010 batted ball data to regress some in 2011.
For hitters (pitchers soon), I looked at BABIP, LD%, and HR/FB for those with a min of 400 PA. To set the baseline, I took the league leading value from the past 3 seasons (min 1200 PA). Then, I selected any player that beat that bench mark. There are not a ton of players that exceed the values because most hitters had a long enough season to get to their true batted ball talent level.
Note: 3 year average leader is in bold.
HR/FB
| Name | HR/FB |
| Mike Napoli | 25.4% |
| Mike Stanton | 24.8% |
| Mark Reynolds | 22.9% |
Only two players break Mark Reynold’s 3 year mark.
Mike Napoli – I expect a huge regression from Mike next season. One possible advantage for him is that he has a good chance of playing DH or 1B when not catching. He can get full time PAs while being a catcher eligible player. I see people way over valuing him next season, but I would be interested for the right price.
Mike Stanton – The way he hits the ball, he may be the 3 year leader in this category soon.
LD%
| Name | LD% |
| Joey Votto | 27.5% |
| Todd Helton | 27.1% |
| Michael Bourn | 26.6% |
| Michael Young | 26.2% |
| Greg Dobbs | 25.8% |
| Placido Polanco | 25.7% |
| Nyjer Morgan | 25.7% |
| Andre Ethier | 25.3% |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 25.0% |
| Todd Helton | 24.9% |
Michael Bourn – Much of his fantasy value requires him getting on bases (SB and Runs). If his LD% drops to around 20%, like it was the last 4 years (18%, 17%, 21%, 18%), his value drops. I expect his 2012 AVG to drop close to his career mark of ~0.270.
Nyjer Morgan – I never know what to think of him. He is so up and down. I don’t see two up years in a row.
BABIP
| Name | BABIP |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.380 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.380 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | 0.372 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.369 |
| Carlos Quentin | 0.242 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.240 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.239 |
| Mark Teixeira | 0.239 |
| Alex Rios | 0.237 |
| Vernon Wells | 0.214 |
Emilio Bonifacio – Don’t be the sucker that over pays for his 2011 season. Just stay away.
Evan Longoria – Just think of the season he would have had if he had a 0.300 BABIP.
Mark Teixeira – Ideal buy low candidate. Some people are considering him down. Don’t buy it. Even if his HR and AVG are off, he will get plenty of Run and RBI opportunities in the Yankee’s lineup.
Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells – If these 3 didn’t have large contracts, I wonder if they would still even be around. They will definitely be shunned on draft/auction day. I would not count on them to be any more than a bench player. I could see one, maybe 2, turn 2012 into something productive.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I’m not sure its fair to lump Dunn, Rios, and Wells into the same category. Maybe the latter two, but Dunn’s fall was so sudden, I’m sure someone would take a chance on him. I thought he was overrated coming into the year anyway unless you were in an OBP league. Rios is just hard to get handle on, his ups and downs have been so erratic, its hard to pin him down. I wouldn’t count on him, but neither would I be surprised if he put up a passable season, especially fantasy wise, since he still isn’t terribly far off from being both a power/speed asset and he doesn’t strike out at an absurdly high rate, despite how dreadful his season was he’s really not all that far off from being a productive five category player. With Wells its pretty clear who he is: a mediocre player with some pop, basically a modest 1-category fantasy asset who hurts you otherwise.
Also in regard to Morgan: “I don’t see two up years in a row” sounds suspiciously gambler’s fallacy-ish. I’m not saying he won’t be overvalued, but the logic seems questionable. He’s not more likely to have a down year simply because he had an up year. In fact, he’s probably more likely to have an up year, especially if his usage is similar (platooned with Gomez), though its obviously unwise to expect him to be quite as good as he was, at least in AVG.
Who the hell knows with Morgan. Maybe he’ll decide to try stealing bases again next year.