Batted Ball Outliers: Part Timers

Yesterday, I looked at the batted ball data for full time hitters. Today, I moved onto the hitters that had between 150 and 400 PA in 2011. There are more outliers in these groups because the hitter’s batted ball data did not have a chance to stabilize.

HR/FB%

Name	HR/FB	PA
Jason Giambi	29.5%	152
Andruw Jones	25.0%	222
Mark Reynolds	22.9%

No young players sneaking up onto this list. Just the 2 part time vets

LD%

Name	LD%	PA
Nick Punto	31.0%	166
Salvador Perez	29.2%	158
Trayvon Robinson	28.8%	155
Kyle Seager	27.7%	201
J.D. Martinez	27.6%	226
David Ross	26.3%	171
Ruben Tejada	25.7%	376
Willie Bloomquist	25.2%	381
Bryan Petersen	25.0%	241
Magglio Ordonez	25.0%	357
Rob Johnson	25.0%	199
Todd Helton	24.9%

Salvador Perez – Sal should see plenty of attention going into next season. A catcher that hits 0.300 will get noticed. He won’t continue to hit LD at a near 30% rate. Pitchers will find a weakness in his swing and the numbers will come down.

BABIP

Name	BABIP	PA
Alejandro De Aza	0.404	171
Reed Johnson	0.394	266
Jimmy Paredes	0.383	179
Austin Jackson	0.369
Carlos Quentin	0.242
Mike McCoy	0.240	228
Rene Tosoni	0.240	189
Jason Michaels	0.236	169
Brian Roberts	0.236	178
Manny Burriss	0.233	152
Matt Tolbert	0.233	226
Jeff Mathis	0.233	281
Hank Conger	0.231	197
Brandon Crawford	0.228	220
Michael Martinez	0.220	234
Jorge Cantu	0.216	155
Chone Figgins	0.215	313
Chris Stewart	0.213	183
Kelly Shoppach	0.212	253
Michael Saunders	0.212	179
Dioner Navarro	0.210	202
Anthony Rizzo	0.210	153
Jayson Nix	0.209	151
Adam LaRoche	0.205	177
J.R. Towles	0.200	165
Craig Counsell	0.197	187
Drew Butera	0.194	254
Tyler Colvin	0.175	222

Alejandro De Aza – He is getting mentioned as next year’s lead off hitter for the White Sox. The possible drop he may see in AVG could easily be made up with SB and Runs.

Hank Conger – He always had a BABIP over 0.300 in the minors. He can’t seem to get it over 0.250 in the majors. He needs to finally break through or he may have a long future as a journeyman catcher.

Brian Roberts – He was hitting bad before losing the season to a concussion. I like him as a buy low candidate in 2012. I would not have him as my first choice at 2B, but would take a late round flier on him.

Chone Figgins – I have no idea why the Mariners just haven’t cut the cord on him.

Anthony Rizzo – He was one of the players that came over in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. He is a long ball hitter with 20 or more HRs over the last 2 years in the minors. While with the MLB club, he hit only 1 HR. A low LD% (13.4%), high K% (30%) and fly balls that won’t leave the stadium (2.8% HR/FB) will lead to the 0.141 AVG. Hopefully he will have a better 2012. It almost can’t get any worse.

Tyler Colvin – Tyler looks like a home run hitter that can’t hit home run. After hitting 20 home runs with a HR/FB ratio of 19.4% in 2010, he only hit 6 HRs in 2011 with a 8.6% HR/FB ratio. I just don’t think he can hit good enough to make it in the majors.