BATNA Is A Ridiculous Acronym

I posit that some acronyms are ridiculous. For example, BATNA engenders images of the very worst of the Batman series. You know, like little inexplicable gremlins playing ice hockey with a giant diamond in a bank while Arnold Schwarzenegger rampages. Why doesn’t my bank have massive diamonds sitting out in the open?

However, BATNA can play a useful role in our ongoing discussion about spying and negotiating. It stands for Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement, which sort of defines itself. For fantasy baseball purposes, it means: “what will I do if I don’t make this trade.”

Per Wikipedia, forming attractive alternatives is a key component to using BATNA. We usually think of this as leverage. If I’m trying to trade Giancarlo Stanton to upgrade Adam LaRoche at first base, I can afford to be very patient in my shopping. LaRoche is no Paul Goldschmidt, but he’s an excellent alternative should no trade be forthcoming. Conversely, if I’m trying to replace a Justin Smoak or Logan Morrison, I’ll be much more eager to reach an agreement – thus weakening my position.

For owners in keeper leagues, the best alternative to any trade is usually the draft. Since the outcome of the draft is uncertain, owners can be prone to misestimating their ability to solve a problem. Usually, offseason trades simply move one need to a new position – ostensibly one that should be easier to solve via the draft. Dynasty owners have a different experience – their offseason more closely resembles that of a major league club. If they don’t have a full roster heading into the draft, they could be screwed.

Once we all draft, the waiver wire becomes the default best alternative. If LaRoche hits the disabled list, we can make a trade or call upon Smoak. Anybody we trade for has to be better than Smoak while considering the intrinsic value of the player dealt. If we still have Stanton on the block, we might target Jose Abreu as a comparable asset. However, such a deal is a lot easier to make if we have a Dexter Fowler on the bench. If we don’t have outfield depth, we might get stuck with a Will Venable. Once again, we’re in a position with limited leverage.

Best alternatives usually aren’t explicitly discussed, but the fantasy market is relatively transparent. Unless an owner has a mediocre trade offer in hand that is serving as their best alternative, we can readily find their alternatives with two minutes of investigation. It’s worth the minimal effort. Knowing how your rival will respond if your trade talks fall through can help inform asking price, flexibility, and even which players you’re willing to trade.

In fantasy, we try to simplify everything to numbers, especially in auction leagues where players are tied to dollar values. However, there are always qualitative factors that can influence a negotiation. Here are just a few. We’ll assume we’re shopping a $20 player for anything.

• If we’re offered a $20 outfielder or a $17 shortstop, we might consider taking the shortstop. (In this example, I’m including a position adjustment in the shortstop’s price tag). With the paucity of quality shortstops, it might be worthwhile to take a $3 loss and count on finding a cheaper outfielder.
• Comparable offers from our top rival and the village rube. If both the first and 12th place teams offer us a $20 first baseman, chances are we’ll trade with the 12th place team. Their ability to benefit from the trade at our expense is limited (be wary of roto categories).
• The ease of working with an owner matters. There are times where I know I could negotiate a better trade with somebody else, using the present offer as my BATNA. However, I find value in cultivating relationships with people who can negotiate quickly. It can be better to take their offer than to risk ruining a beneficial relationship. Keep in mind, we’re talking about spending a lot of time to find a very marginal upgrade.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that dollar valuations of a player often come with a massive error bar. This year, LaRoche might be something like a $13 first baseman +/- $10. That makes it harder to separate the quantitative from the qualitative since a person can reasonable estimate a wide range of valuations.

So that’s BATNA in a nutshell as it applies to fantasy baseball. It’s useful to know best alternatives for you and any respective trade partner since it can influence a negotiation. More to the point, it’s part of a problem solving approach to negotiation that dovetails nicely with our recent discussions. So the last three days can be summarized thusly: don’t be a dick, don’t haggle, be aware of best alternatives. Who’s ready to trade?