A little later in the day than you’re used to, but it will be worth the wait. I promise.

My Hero
Carlos Santana

That’s right. Santana has been tremendous, and while our sample size is small, I have no worries about his ability to keep it up. I’d like the K-rate to drop a couple percent, but I suppose we can live for only league average in one category. Personally, I am going to love paring him with Pujols in my keeper league.

Big Three
Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Brian McCann

Victor’s injury hampers his value, so he slides to number three.

Power. So Much Power
Miguel Olivo
Mike Napoli
John Buck

I’ve given up on trying to predict a batting average drop for John Buck. He had a BABIP below .300 in June, yet hit .270. Looks like he’s for real, and I’m buying in.

Happy to Have
Kurt Suzuki
Jorge Posada
Miguel Montero
Buster Posey
Geovany Soto

Montero may have a small sample, but it’s a great one. He’s hitting over 30% line drives, and has cut his K-rate while raising his BB-rate. He’s not going to hit .394 all year (.441 BABIP), but his line will be better than it was last year.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Ryan Doumit
Matt Wieters
John Jaso
Rod Barajas
Ivan Rodriguez
Ronny Paulino

Jack isn’t very picky when it comes to his catchers. Jaso was getting calls to move up, but as our sample grew we learned more and more, and my expectations didn’t really change.

The Rest of ‘Em
Bengie Molina
Russell Martin
Carlos Ruiz
Nick Hundley
Yadier Molina
Jason Kendall
A.J. Pierzynski

Bengie’s arrival in Texas should help his numbers a bit, so don’t be afraid to give him a shot. I considered Jason Castro, but I don’t see him doing much this year. He’s a better option in NL-only keeper leagues, but that’s the only place I’d give him a shot.

Back, but probably not better than ever. If the rankings are crazy, blame my cold.

Big Three
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Alex Rodriguez

Every week that A-Rod doesn’t show his old power, he continues to lose value. He is still a very good third baseman in real life, but his days as a dominant force may be over. I’d like to see Longoria hit a couple more dingers this week, otherwise Wright may be able to squirm his way into the number one spot.

Large Two
Ryan Zimmerman
Scott Rolen

Rolen still carries some injury risk, but he is really tearing it up.

Medium Four
Mark Reynolds
Casey McGehee
Michael Young
Adrian Beltre

Reynolds is doing everything he can to hit 40 homers, even if it means killing his batting average. Young is playing like a man who is much…never mind, that pun wasn’t worth it.

Sad Panda
Jorge Cantu
Ian Stewart
Jose Bautista
Pablo Sandoval

Cantu is steady, so he’s a good play if you want to know what you’re getting. Stewart has more power than he’s show, or so I think. Bautista will kill your average, but could save you with his power. And Pablo, well, he’s not doing so hot.

I am Jack’s Third Baseman
Kevin Kouzmanoff
David Freese
Casey Blake

If we all try hard enough, we can will David Freese to hit more homers. Blake has always been a favorite bench guy of mine, because you know what you’re getting year-in and year-out.

The Rest of ‘Em
Neil Walker
Chase Headley
Pedro Alvarez
Chipper Jones

Slow down, Pedro. Just do your thing and everything will come together. With Edwin Encarnacion getting DFA’d, I had to find a new guy to fill out the list. I’m liking what Neil Walker is showing, and it doesn’t surprise me one bit.

Back, but probably not better than ever. If the rankings are crazy, blame my cold.

Gigantic Two
Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera

I knew it felt wrong to slide Cabrera in front of Pujols, so after some evaluation, Pujols is back on top. I expect Miggy to have better power numbers going forward, but the steals that Albert may grab you will make up for it.

Big Three
Joey Votto
Justin Morneau
Adrian Gonzalez

Three lefties, and three big performers. All of these guys will put up similar numbers, but I think Votto comes out ahead. But, really, can you go wrong with any of them?

Strong Contributors
Ryan Howard
Adam Dunn
Kevin Youkilis
Paul Konerko

Howard has been disappointing, Konerko has been a nice surprise, while Dunn and Youk continue to do their thing. Losing Pedroia, and possibly Victor for some time could hurt Youkilis’ value. …

I am Jack’s First Baseman
Prince Fielder
Mark Teixeira
Garrett Jones
Troy Glaus

It pains me to do it, but Fielder and Teixeira need to drop down this far. Fielder isn’t even driving in runs, something you’d expect even if he wasn’t hitting homers. I’m really close to putting Jones above Teixeira. Maybe Glaus, too.

Writers Block
Billy Butler
Nick Swisher
Adam LaRoche

Big AVG from Butler, but it’s a bit too empty. Swisher has been great, and LaRoche needs to bring his strikeout rate down.

The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott
Justin Smoak
Aubrey Huff
David Ortiz
Derrek Lee
Carlos Pena
Russell Branyan
Ike Davis
Lance Berkman

I know this group is huge, but that’s how close these guys are. You could take any one of these guys over another, and I couldn’t chew you out for it.

As we get deeper and deeper into the season, we learn more and more about each player. This makes perfect sense, on two fronts. First, the more data we have on anyone (in any aspect of life), the better we can understand them and the more accurately we can predict behavior going forward. Secondly, we learn more and more about certain aspects (peripheral stats) of the player, which gives us an even better chance of predicting performance going forward.

For example, we know from Pizza Cutter’s work that a player’s HR/FB rate stabilizes at around 300 plate appearances. Most hitters have now hit that mark, or will very shortly. Once they hit the benchmark, we can feel much more confident when predicting home runs going forward. If you want to familiarize yourself with all of the intricacies of in-season hitting benchmarks, be sure to read Eric Seidman’s post on the subject, but below are the final results of the study:

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Pop quiz: What’s the biggest stat that you don’t see listed here? The answer is C) BABIP, and similarly, AVG. This means that throughout the length of one season, BABIP never really stabilizes and become reliable.

This is one of the biggest problems in fantasy leagues. When acquiring a player you believe has been unlucky thus far, you are still taking a shot in the dark. Guys have been known to have unlucky seasons, so he may not perform any better once you acquire him. Then again, he could perform much better, and you could get one hell of a steal. If I were to give advice to an owner trying to buy low on a player’s BABIP, I would always suggest doing so. If you want to increase your odds of finding a rebounding player, grab a few of them and hope that one of them works out. Of course, if you’re in a keeper league, you should buy low more often. Because, even if the player doesn’t rebound for the rest of the season, chances are he will be back to his normal self the next season, when we get to hit the “reset” button.

To put it simply, when buying low on BABIP, you just have to ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?”

Well, do ya, punk?

Coming into the year, we weren’t expecting Ichiro to have another top-20 fantasy season, and for good reason. He only stole 26 bases in 2009, and expecting a 36 year old to continue to flash top notch speed is asking too much. To refresh your memory, this is what I had to say about Ichiro in the Second Opinion:

Ichiro’s main value, his speed, is slowly dying. Even though he missed time at the start of the season with a bleeding ulcer, he probably would have fallen short of the 30 steals mark for the first time in his career…another .300 season with 90 runs and 25 stolen bases is on the horizon for Ichiro in 2010

To date, Ichiro has stolen 20 bases in 27 tries, while batting .336/.389/.437 in 313 plate appearances. When I said he’d steal 25 bases, I had no idea he’d reach that mark by the All-Star break. So, what gives? Last season, the Mariners attempted 122 steals over a 162 game season. This year, they have attempted to swipe a bag 77 times in only 70 games. You don’t need to be a math major to see that the Mariners are running at a much higher rate than before. This is likely because the Mariners offense lacks a big time slugger to drive runners in, in conjunction with the offseason addition of another speed threat in Chone Figgins. If the guys on the basepaths don’t make things happen, the team is less likely to have runners cross home plate.

ESPN’s Player Rater ranks Ichiro as the 21st best fantasy player thus far. While I’m not sure what that means (seeing that ESPN doesn’t explain their methods), it is much higher than I had him ranked coming into the year (39th). As long as his steal rate doesn’t turn Nyjeresque, Ichiro is still a top talent in fantasy leagues. His high average combined with his high at-bat totals can help your team support bigger sluggers, which is a huge plus in roto leagues.

Some more fun facts about Ichiro to get you through the day:

– Ichiro is better than you, and he knows it.
– Last season, Ichiro’s batted ball percentages (LD/GB/FB) were 18.2/55.6/26.2. This year? A remarkably consistent 18.0/55.5/26.5.
– Ichiro’s strikeout rate is the worst of his career, while his walk rate is the second best he’s ever had.
– Ichiro is a snappy dresser.
– Ichiro’s ISO (.101) is exactly the same as his career rate.
– Ichiro’s current wRC+ ranks 2010 as his second best offensive season (tied with 2001, his rookie year).
– Throughout his entire career, Ichiro has gotten a hit on half of his bunts.
– Ichiro replaced Jay Buhner long ago, and I still haven’t forgiven him.

Here at RotoGraphs, we don’t always give too much of our time to OBP leagues. Sad, but true. More and more leagues are converting to OBP, or adding OPS, so it’s about time that we made time for them.

Some players have much more value in OBP leagues, and some have much less. The easiest (or is it the laziest?) way to determine this, is to simply subtract a players’ batting average from their OBP. Let’s take a look, shall we?

The Studs
1. Chipper Jones (.141)
2. Josh Willingham (.139)
3. Prince Fielder (.137)
4. Jose Bautista (.127)
5. Kevin Youkilis (.123)

While Bautista has much more value in OBP leagues, his OBP is only around 10 points above average. Chipper, however, is amazing. He is waiver wire fodder in standard leagues, but he needs to be owned in every OBP league. His injury problems mean you’ll need a reliable backup, but when he plays, he reaches base. Willingham is owned in 65% of Yahoo! leagues, so he won’t be widely available. Even though Youkilis and Fielder are big time fantasy players, Bautista and Chipper are nice values in OBP leagues.

The Middle Class
83. Alfonso Soriano (.072)
84. Shane Victorino (.072)
85. Alex Rodriguez (.072)
86. Hideki Matsui (.071)
87. Denard Span (.071)

A-Rod in the middle of the road? Gasp.

The Duds
173. Pedro Feliz (.025)
172. Julio Borbon (.025)
171. Alberto Callaspo (.026)
170. Carlos Gonzalez (.027)
169. Cristian Guzman (.027)

Feliz should never be owned, period, and hasn’t been worth your time since 2007. Borbon is having a nice season, especially after the way he started off, but his value needs to be altered in OBP leagues. The speed is nice, but a .319 OBP isn’t going to cut it. Callaspo has always had a decent walk rate in Kansas City, so his struggles to take a free pass are strange. Guzman’s Nationals career has always been the definition of “empty average”, so this is not a shock. Gonzalez’s walk rate was decent last year, but he’s swinging more while making less contact. Borbon and CarGo both have some value due to their counting stats, but don’t get too excited.

You comment, and I listen. Seriously, your input is very important. I’m only one person with one vantage point, and challenging my rankings makes me revisit them and rethink my evaluations. We’re going to continue on without including any stats, so without further ado…

The Big Three
Victor Martinez
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann

Victor holds on to the number one spot, and that shouldn’t change (barring injury). McCann continues to try remedies for his vision, so we may see his batting eye improve sometime soon.

Happy To Have
Jorge Posada
Mike Napoli
Kurt Suzuki
Miguel Olivo

Want power without completely killing your batting average? You’re going to have to pay for it. Olivo will always have to look over his shoulder, but I think the Rockies will give him the benefit of the doubt and stick with him as long as they possibly can.

The Prospects
Carlos Santana
Buster Posey

I am loving Santana going forward. While our sample is small, he is showing signs of being worth all of the hype. And more. Posey may not show much power right away, but he should develop more as his career progresses.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Ryan Doumit
Miguel Montero
Geovany Soto
Matt Wieters
John Jaso

I think Sweet Lou just likes to screw with fantasy owners. Jaso seems to be the real deal, while Montero and Doumit could be higher if I trusted them to stay healthy.

Buckaroos
Russell Martin
John Buck
Ivan Rodriguez
Rod Barajas
Carlos Ruiz
Ronny Paulino
Nick Hundley

Martin drops way down, as does Ruiz. Pudge is back and started hitting right away, and he is fitting in nicely with the Nationals. Hundley continues to impress me, and his added playing time has been nice.

The Rest of ‘Em
Bengie Molina
Yadier Molina
Chris Iannetta
Jason Kendall

I’ll always love Iannetta, and am looking forward to someone taking him off the Rockies hands in the offseason (if not the trade deadline).

I bet some of you fine folks are wondering where your catcher rankings are, right? Well, I am alternating weeks with catcher rankings and corner infield rankings. At this point in the year, rankings won’t change much week to week, so this is a much better option.

Big Four
Evan Longoria
Alex Rodriguez
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman

In all of my updates, the top spot has changed hands. I mentioned before that I was tempted to move Longoria up to the top slot, and I finally worked up the stones to do so. Zimmerman has shown he deserves to be mentioned with what used to be the “Big Three.”

Medium Four
Mark Reynolds
Scott Rolen
Casey McGehee
Jorge Cantu

If I owned any of these guys, I wouldn’t feel too bad. Rolen’s injury history still scares me, but I hate predicting that a guy will get hurt. McGehee is showing that his power is for real, but how long will he sustain peak performance? He’s already 27, so he may not be able to improve anymore.

Surprised?
Pablo Sandoval
Michael Young

Pablo’s BABIP may be catching up with him, but his lowered line drive rate isn’t helping matters. Is the power he showed last year a fraud?

I Am Jack’s Third Baseman
Ian Stewart
Adrian Beltre
Jose Bautista

Now that Jack owns a catcher and a first baseman, he needs someone to man the hot corner. If Bautista was capable of hitting .250, he’d be in a higher tier.

Prospect Alert!
David Freese
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Pedro Alvarez

At first, it looked like Alvarez would be up during this very week, but now it looks like the Pirates are going to hold off. He will, however, be up by the end of the month. Freese needs to add some power to his game, but the batting average is still nice and shiny.

The Rest of ‘Em
Casey Blake
Chase Headley
Chipper Jones
Edwin Encarnacion

Chipper’s latest injury problem and lack of overall production forces him to the lowest tier. He still might be worth holding onto in OBP leagues, but should be on the waiver wire in standard leagues.

I bet some of you fine folks are wondering where your catcher rankings are, right? Well, I am alternating weeks with catcher rankings and corner infield rankings. At this point in the year, rankings won’t change much week to week, so this is a much better option.

Gigantic Two
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols

Dropping Albert to the number two spot doesn’t feel right, but Miggy deserves to be ranked above him.

Big Three
Justin Morneau
Adrian Gonzalez
Joey Votto

Remember when everyone got on my case for keeping Morneau down? Good times. After the top five, the rankings got really tricky. Here goes nothing.

Surprised?
Ryan Howard
Adam Dunn
Kevin Youkilis
Prince Fielder

I never thought I’d see Howard and Fielder down this far, but they’ve looked like mere mortals this season. Howard has an excuse (batting stance), but what’s Prince’s? Did he accidentally eat some meat?

I Am Jack’s First Baseman
Paul Konerko
Mark Teixeira
Garrett Jones
Troy Glaus

Jack has a catcher, so he should probably think about picking up a first baseman. I have no clue what is going on with Mark Teixeira, but it looks like he may have lost some pop in his bat compared to last year.

Writer’s Block
Billy Butler
Adam LaRoche
Nick Swisher
Luke Scott

If you want average, Butler’s your man. If you want OBP, Swisher’s your guy.

The Rest of ‘Em
David Ortiz
Carlos Pena
James Loney
Aubrey Huff
Lance Berkman
Justin Smoak
Derrek Lee
Russell Branyan

Pena falls really far, because I’m not willing to pay for his batting average to get his homers. He has some luck issues, but he’s not helping anything. This is a big group, but I felt like all of them belonged together. Could make good points for all of them being above each other. Papi might belong in the “Writer’s Block” group, but I’m not comfortable putting him there.

Before the baseball season starts, all fantasy owners are reading and getting advice from multiple sources. If you’re reading this, one of those sources is me. I said all kinds of things before the season started, and it’s about time that we reflected on some of the advice I gave. Don’t worry, I’m not just going to show you the things I got right. That wouldn’t be fair. Below is a list of players, the advice I gave at the time, how they are performing thus far, and a quick comment.

Tony Gwynn, Jr.
“If he can get ample playing time, a .270 average with 15 steals is not out of the question”
162 PA, .210 AVG, .248 BABIP, 9 SB (2 CS)
He may not get the average up this year, but I feel pretty good about this one.

Rafael Furcal
“When someone in your league drafts Furcal, look at them, point, and laugh.”
157 PA, .294 AVG, .339 BABIP, 9 SB (1 CS)
Who’s laughing now? Not me.

Juan Pierre
“A .290 average with 45+ steals is completely reasonable to expect in 2010.”
256 PA, .257 AVG, .276 BABIP, 14.8 LD%, 23 SB (6 CS)
How did I know he was going to stop hitting line drives?

Johan Santana
“CHONE projects his strikeout rate to be at 8.11, while FANS and Marcel project it to hover around the same mark. But what proof do we have that his strikeout rate should rise back towards his career average (even if it is only a slight bump)?”
78.1 IP, 6.55 K/9, 2.38 K/BB, 2.79 ERA, 4.49 xFIP
I didn’t see the K-rate falling this far, but it doesn’t surprise me. His fastball velocity is below 90 mph for the first time.

Stephen Strasburg > Aroldis Chapman
“Chapman is currently the 70th pitcher off the board (284), with Strasburg as the 73rd pitcher off the board (301). Why is Chapman going so early? Strasburg is more polished and will be in the majors sooner, so I’d much rather have him…Strasburg is not a bad selection in the slot he is being drafted in”
Chapman in minors: 54.2 IP, 61 K, 34 BB, 4.11 FIP
Don’t need to list Strasburg’s numbers because, well, you should have heard about them already.

Javier Vazquez
“Vazquez’s strikeouts will drop down a touch in 2010, but 17 wins, 200 K’s, and a 3.50 ERA are all reasonable to expect next season.”
56 IP, 5-5, 8.36 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 1.77 HR/9, 4.56 xFIP
How did I know he was going to start walking people? He’s struck out 16 and only walked 5 in his last two starts.

Brandon Inge
“I see a .250 average with 22 homers next season, with another 75+ RBI year”
229 PA, 6 HR, .242 AVG, .288 BABIP
Not shocked to see the HR rate drop, and his average is held up by a significantly increased LD%.

Jason Hammel > Jeff Niemann
“Why is Niemann being drafted so much higher than Hammel? For one, I would venture a guess that the old stigma behind Coors Field is catching up to Hammel. His numbers are very similar to Niemann’s, although his stuff graded out lower according to our Pitch Value data. Hammel at 362 is an infinitely better value than Niemann at 213, and I think Hammel may move up some boards as the season draws nearer. Hammel isn’t an ace, but neither is Niemann”
Niemann: 80 IP, 6-0, 5.74 K/9, 2.32 K/BB, 2.48 ERA, 45.1% GB .226 BABIP, 4.43 xFIP
Hammel: 51.2 IP, 3-3, 7.32 K/9, 3.00 K/BB, 5.23 ERA, 46.6% GB, .347 BABIP, 3.74 xFIP
Got criticized about this in the chat a few weeks ago, and I’m still feeling good about this prediction.