Joe Mauer (Expected, You)
My Pick: 25, 23
Average Pick: 19.2, 27.4
Median Pick: 20, 25
Pick Deviation: 9.9, 16.4

Interesting. Even after a year in which he was selected around twelfth and failed miserably to meet expectations, you all expect owners to take him less than ten picks later. I think he’ll go a little later at the 2-3 turn, and I’d be okay taking him there. For the most part, we’re arguing over nothing here, so let’s move on to Bautista.

Jose Bautista (Expected, You)
My Pick: 25, 92
Average Pick: 34.1, 41.9
Median Pick: 35, 40
Pick Deviation: 19.6, 24.5
– – –
My Dollar: 30, 15
Average Dollar: 24.5, 20.7
Median Dollar: 25, 20
Dollar Deviation: 7.9, 7.8

Okay, let’s start with the draft picks. As you can see, I’m not willing to take the chance on Bautista this year, and that’s not because I think he’ll be a total bust. I still think he’ll end up hitting at least 35 homers, but a low batting average combined with the strength of this year’s third base class (more on that sometime soon, and by soon I mean sometime before Spring Training) is not a recipe for an extremely valuable player. You are expecting Bautista to go later than I am, but are willing to pull the trigger on Bautista in the middle of the fourth round. Unless you expect him to hit another 50 home runs, this pick is probably going to be an overdraft.

Now onto the dollar amounts. I’m very happy that these dollar amounts correlate with the ADP numbers. A mid fourth-round pick is worth a little more than $20, so the relationship works out beautifully. Kudos to you for your knowledge and presence of mind. It’s strange that a player who hit over 50 homers last season would cost about $25 the following year, but that’s what has happened in the current age of speculation and doubt (you can speculate about what one might speculate about). I don’t think I’d mind spending $20 on Bautista if he wasn’t one of the first people nominated, but he won’t be. In auctions, I’d throw Bautista up there early and watch owners burn their money.

After a request from one of y’all, we’re going to try adding in auction value to our voting today. That will include both expected auction value and your auction value. If you don’t like auctions and don’t want to vote on those numbers, it’s fine, and I have not made it a required question. Let me know if you like it.

I’m surprised we haven’t done Jose Bautista yet over the course of this series. So surprised, in fact, that I had to search through multiple archives of mine to make sure I didn’t miss something. Bautista may have been the greatest waiver-wire pickup in history last year, as there is absolutely no reason anyone should have been drafting him. Sure, there have been great pickups in the past, but has anyone gone from waiver fodder to 54 home runs? I doubt it.

Aside from the massive home run total, Bautista set career marks in batting average, stolen bases, and every other fantasy category known to man. Making it all just a little more impressive, he did it with a .233 BABIP and 15% infield fly ball rate. Apart from the counting stats, Bautista also improved his walk and strikeout rates, posting by far the best BB/K he’s ever had.

Bautista was 29-years old during last season, and combining his age with a change in his swing meant extreme improvements. Now Bautista is 30-years old, and pitchers will likely have figured out some kind of hole in Bautista’s approach, or at least have decided to pitch around him. No one should be expecting Bautista to hit 50-plus homers again, but how many will he mash? If I knew the answer, I probably wouldn’t be here right now.

We are voting on where you think Bautista will be drafted by the average owner, as well as voting on where you would draft him. We are also trying out auction values today, both expected value and how much you would pay for Bautista. Please note we are pick number, not round this time because of Bautista’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

In today’s ADP Crowdsourcing, we go back to looking at a star, and and are using pick number as our unit of measurement because of it.

Joe Mauer was a certifiable star heading into 2010 fantasy drafts. The catcher had hit close to 30 home runs, signed a massive extension and helped the Twins move into their new ballpark. His 2011 was far less spectacular, even though he ended up posting 5 WAR. Mauer ended 2010 with 9 homers, 88 runs scored and a .327 batting average. That line would have been more than acceptable from any other catcher, but after the numbers Mauer put up the year before, it was seen as a disappointment.

Read the rest of this entry »

Before we get to today’s results, I thought I’d ask you if you’d please leave your suggestions for future ADP Crowdsourcings in the comments below. Thank you.

Matt Garza (xADP, You)
My vote: 8, 10
Average: 9.7, 11.7
Median: 10, 12
Std Dev: 2.9, 4.3

While we may not have perfectly agreed on where Garza is going to be drafted, or even when we would be willing to take him, we did agree on one thing: Garza is going to be overvalued and taken about two rounds before we would be willing to pull the trigger. I think the perception of his move out of the AL East and into the National League will help propel his ADP, but I could very well be wrong. I always find it interesting to look at these results, because – at least in this case – it can make you realize that most of us aren’t expecting to have Garza on our rosters in 2011, which is a strange thought to have echoed throughout the sample.

Jeremy Hellickson (xADP, You)
My vote: 15, 13
Average: 13.3, 12.3
Median: 13, 12
Std Dev: 4.2, 4.1

Trying to pinpoint a prospect’s numbers are tough enough, let along trying to accurately predict where they will be drafted. However, you guys had a pretty good idea when it came to Hellickson, even if I thought he’d be taken a little later. To be fair, my thinking may be biased based on what I’ve seen in “expert” mock drafts, and I’m going to put my faith in you guys. While I would be willing to take Hellickson in the 13th round, my projections don’t indicate that he’ll be worth that pick. But, when you can get a young stud like Hellickson who has the chance to be great, it’s worth the risk. I have a feeling this may be the sentiment for a good number of owners, as it seems some weigh pure upside far more than others.

Please leave your suggestions for future ADP Crowdsourcings in the comments below. Thank you.

In this week’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we are taking a look at two players who will be affected by Matt Garza being traded to the Cubs. Today we finish our week of voting with Jeremy Hellickson, and are using rounds as our unit once again.

Even before Garza was traded, I think most (including myself) were drafting Hellickson on the assumption that he’d have a spot in the rotation when the season began, because Hellickson was simply too good to keep in the minor leagues any longer. After the Garza trade, we can now be sure that Hellickson should enter 2011 in the Rays’ starting rotation, but we cannot be sure how many innings he will pitch.

Some may want to compare Hellickson’s debut with those of David Price and Wade Davis, but Helly isn’t a comparable pitcher. Hellickson already has two breaking balls that are of MLB caliber, and he does a good job keeping his pitches low in the zone. Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t going to hurt his cause, either, as they should continue to do an excellent job converting balls in play to outs.

It’s understandable that owners will have their reservations, as a rookie facing the stacked lineups of Boston and New York isn’t the best case scenario, but good pitchers do well in almost any capacity. The Rays are still going to compete this year, and while their bullpen could lose Hellickson a few wins, he should still be able to reach a double-digit win total this year. As long as he doesn’t succomb to James Shields‘ Homerunitis, he’ll be fine.

We are still voting on where you think Hellickson will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Garza’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

In this week’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we take a look at two players who will be affected by Matt Garza trade to the Cubs. Today we start with Garza himself, and are using rounds as our unit once again.

If you just watched Garza throw in a bullpen session, you may have reason to believe that he is a legitimate MLB and fantasy ace. However, you wouldn’t have much reason to believe that if you just looked at his numbers from the past three seasons in Tampa Bay. Garza is one of those starters who has good velocity on his fastball, and despite a fantastic slider, is unable to strike out as many batters as he probably should. Garza’s age-25 season in 2009 gave everyone plenty of hope, and his strikeout rate crept over the 8.0 per nine innings mark. But he returned to normal in 2010, striking out only 6.6 batter every nine innings.

Garza has become an extreme fly-ball pitcher over the past few years, and despite Tropicana Fields’ park factors, his home run rate is usually below average. Wrigley Field is not as forgiving, especially against left-handed hitters, so Garza could end up getting himself in a little bit of trouble this upcoming season. However, facing a pitcher or pinch-hitter instead of a DH and leaving the AL East should help mitigate his potential home run problems.

We are still voting on where you think Garza will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Garza’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

In this week’s edition of Crowdsourcing Results, we learn that you really don’t care about Chone Figgins.

Adrian Beltre (Average Owner, You)
My Vote: 48, 65
Average: 51.35, 60.86
Median: 50, 58
Std Dev: 18.88, 22.65

The data shows that I’m a little less inclined to pay for a third baseman who’s past his peak years then the majority of you were, but we weren’t off by much. It sounds like he’d be targeted around the 5-6 turn if you had your way, but you expect him to go about a round earlier, closer to the 4-5 turn. Beltre may be a hot name after the season he had last year and his return to the public consciousness thanks to playing for the Red Sox, and name value can be worth even more than actual production in some drafts. If Beltre takes advantage of his new digs and gets comfortable in the Rangers’ lineup, picking him at the end of the fourth or beginning of the fifth could very well be worth it.

Chone Figgins
My Vote: 10, 13
Average: 10.62, 11.13
Median: 10, 11
Std Dev: 3.58, 4.03

These results were pretty bland, and it was clear that Figgy is not all that interesting. At least according to you all. Even though we had our lowest sampling ever, the results were pretty clear. Figgins is going to be drafted as a starting second baseman (as he should), but is going to be taken too early to declare him a value. While counting on a player past his prime to bounce back after a bad year is hard, I’d bet on Figgins doing it. I definitely wouldn’t take him in the tenth unless I was desperate for steals, but I could be convinced to nab him in the eleventh or twelfth, depending on how my roster was constructed.

Next week in ADP Crowdsourcing, we take a look at Matt Garza and Jeremy Hellickson. See you then.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go a little older and try to nail down draft position for a proven vet. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are back to round today and not pick number due to the expected results.

Coming off an extremely impressive contract year with the Angels, Chone Figgins joined the Seattle Mariners and watched his numbers drop in almost every category. Figgins struggled with strikeouts early on in the year, and at times looked like he was simply trying to get the ball in play and avoid the K. He somehow managed to steal more than 40 bases for the fifth time in six seasons, but a batting average below .260 made him waiver-wire fodder in a lot of leagues.

However, If you’re looking for reason to trust Figgins next year, look no further than his first and second half splits, as determined by the All-Star break:

First half: .235 BA, .291 BABIP, 20.6% K%,
Second half: .286 BA, .340 BABIP, 16.7% K%

Figgins also had a slightly higher rate of extra-base hits in the second half of the year, suggesting that he may have found his stroke and gotten back to his old form. Figgins is still past his peak, but thanks to his reliance on his stumpy little legs, he should still be able to put up solid fantasy numbers for another couple of years. But if you don’t want to buy into an aging speedster who’s overall numbers were sub-par last year, I understand.

Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Figgins will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Figgins’ likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go topical. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are still using pick number today instead of round due to the expected results.

Adrian Beltre, who had a lot of hype surrounding him last offseason thanks to his move to Fenway, has finally found a suitor in the Texas Rangers. Beltre looked very good while wearing the Red Sox uniform last year, and he posted a slugging percentage over .500 for the first time since his breakout season with the Dodgers in 2004. Beltre also went to work lowering his strikeout rate by making contact with balls outside the zone at a much higher rate. For the first time since 2003, Beltre had an overall contact rate above league average.

Moving from Fenway to Arlington may seem like a bad thing for Beltre’s fantasy value, but according to Statcorner’s park factors, Texas is a better place for righties to hit dingers compared to Boston. Moving to the Rangers will also affect Beltre’s run and RBI opportunities, but Texas still has a pretty good offense on their hands, even if they stick with Michael Young as their DH. Beltre will be in the lineup every day, and should hit in the middle of the order thanks to the absence of Vladimir Guerrero.

Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Beltre will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using pick number, not round this time because of Beltre’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

In this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing results, I am very happy with what we came up with.

Buster Posey
My vote: 38 (expected), 55 (you)
Average: 39, 51
Median: 40, 52.5
Std Dev: 17.7, 25.3

The biggest factor is that we think Posey will be overrated by a majority of owners. We’re expecting Posey to go in the early fourth round in most cases, and I can back that up with mock drafts I have done this offseason. In a lot of cases, we’ll see Posey go at the 3-4 turn unless those owners are averse to drafting catchers early. The second half of the question is where we’d be willing to take him, and the answer makes a ton of sense. Waiting until the middle of the fifth round to take Posey helps to mitigate some of the risks involved with drafting a young catcher by allowing you to select an extra stud beforehand in the fourth. I may not actually take him around pick 52 because I’m not one to take a catcher early unless I see tremendous value, but he slips to the late fifth or early sixth, it’d be too tempting to stay away.

Carlos Santana
My vote: 85, 72
Average: 80, 70
Median: 85, 80
Std Dev: 28.6, 25.4

Unlike Posey, it looks like we’re expecting Santana to be underrated by the majority of owners. Santana had a lot of hype early in his debut, but his brutal-looking injury made a lot of people either forget about him or simply ignore him because of the possible risks involved. Santana’s numbers from last season suggest he’ll be a top catcher if he’s healthy, possibly even ranking him alongside Posey. But the risk involved makes it harder to draft him as high as Posey will be, so taking him a couple rounds later is a safe bet. I like it, and I’d be willing to take a chance on Santana in the early seventh.