After a couple of articles with several decent deep sleepers, this list is just full of disappointments besides Lodolo’s potential.

Dual role pitcher profiled at RotoWire.

• Alzolay, Quantrill, Suarez (x2), Thompson (x2), C Hernandez ($)
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck ($)

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser
• Hill, Hudson, Miley, and Detmers
• Weaver, Bumgarner, Bundy, and Mikolas
• Kelly, Minor, Odorizzi, and Eflin
• Contreras, Wacha, Brubaker, and Lynch
• Rodriguez, Cabrera, Yarbrough, and Gil

Kris Bubic (458 ADP)

In 180 innings over the past two seasons, Bubic doesn’t seem to have what it takes to be anything close to an average major league caliber pitcher. While he has been graded out as a top-100 prospect by some prospect services, he’s not met those expectations.

Read the rest of this entry »

Four interesting arms, an elite prospect, a streaming option, and two guys who are just a step or two from being elite.

Dual role pitcher profiled at RotoWire.

• Alzolay, Quantrill, Suarez (x2), Thompson (x2), C Hernandez ($)
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck ($)

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser
• Hill, Hudson, Miley, and Detmers
• Weaver, Bumgarner, Bundy, and Mikolas
• Kelly, Minor, Odorizzi, and Eflin
• Contreras, Wacha, Brubaker, and Lynch

Read the rest of this entry »

The following is a look at some of the advanced features of the auction calculator. Adding keepers, how to change the value of relievers, and inputing points leagues are discussed. Lucas Kelly went over the basics of the calculator in this article.

Keepers

The Keeper function is one of the best features of the auction calculator. Since it was added, I’ve used it every year for my home keeper league and will again this year. While it takes a bit of time to set up, it’s well worth the effort. Read the rest of this entry »

Three pitchers who I’d have no issues rostering even in 12-team leagues.

Dual role pitcher profiled at RotoWire.

• Alzolay, Quantrill, J. Suarez, Thompson, R. Suarez, Thompson, C Hernandez ($)
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck ($)

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser
• Hill, Hudson, Miley, and Detmers
• Weaver, Bumgarner, Bundy, and Mikolas
• Kelly, Minor, Odorizzi, and Eflin

Read the rest of this entry »

• Some younger developing talent on the 40-man rosters (e.g. Alec Bohm) won’t get instruction while the prospects not on the 40-man can continue to work with the team.

The Phils hired a new hitting coach (Kevin Long) and infield coach (Bobby Dickerson) in part with the hope that the pair could help Bohm recapture his 2020 form. Bohm was able to meet with Long to discuss his approach at the plate multiple times prior to the lockout, but his access has since been cut off, forcing him to work out on his own.

It’s not a problem that’s unique to the Phillies, of course. Every team has young talent that would benefit from meeting with coaches and player development staff, to say nothing of utilizing team facilities for offseason training.

The non-linear prospect growth will get all messed with some players getting help and others not.

Read the rest of this entry »

Some more veterans to slog through. A few interesting rookies are coming up.

• Alzolay, Quantrill, J. Suarez, Thompson, R. Suarez, Thompson, C Hernandez ($)
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck ($)

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser
• Hill, Hudson, Miley, and Detmers
• Weaver, Bumgarner, Bundy, and Mikolas

Read the rest of this entry »

• Alzolay, Quantrill, J. Suarez, Thompson, R. Suarez, Thompson, C Hernandez
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser
• Hill, Hudson, Miley, and Detmers

Read the rest of this entry »

• It seems like Seiya Suzuki will wait out the labor dispute and sign with a major league team.

The labor impasse almost assuredly will continue past Feb. 1, when Hiroshima opens its spring camp in Okinawa. But the Carp are expected to be without their former franchise star, who left little doubt that he’s committed to coming to America despite the current stalemate between MLB and the union.

“I’m just going to wait until both sides agree,” said Suzuki, who arrived in Okinawa last week to conduct workouts on his own. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t experience a lockout so it’s a first for me. At first, I was a little worried about it. But when you think about it, it’s going to end sometime soon. Just having that positive mindset that it will end sometime has allowed me to keep my head up.”

Since the first of the month, he has an NFBC ADP of 209 and that should shoot up once he signs.

Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago, I wrote an article examining Reid Detmers. For Detmers, I posted the following table on comparable curveballs and the lack of results.

Read the rest of this entry »

For this series, I’m focusing on pitchers going after pick 300 in the NFBC ADP. This group is a little more interesting compared to the previous group.

Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):

• Alzolay, Quantrill, J. Suarez, Thompson, R. Suarez, Thompson, C Hernandez
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke
• Matz, Megill, Sanchez, and Walker
• Lauer, Hernandez, Heaney, and Flexen
• Pivetta, Strasburg, Paddack, and Singer
• Patino, Cobb, Luzardo, and Gibson
• Kluber, Greene, Dunning, and Pineda
• Germán, Corbin, Pearson, and Houser

Rich Hill (436 ADP)

When on the mound, Hill has been a decent pitcher, but he has taken a step back the past two seasons. After his comeback, he was posting strikeout rates around 11 K/9. They’ve been closer to 8 K/9 over the past two seasons. One reason for the decline is that he lost over 2 mph off his fastball from 2019 to 2020. He gained a bit of velocity back this past season, but it is still over 2 mph away from his recent highs. During the season, he was seeing a little up and down so there is no obvious trend going forward.

Another issue was that Hill started throwing other pitches besides his curve and fastball this past season. Not one’s usage stood out but they ended up totaling 11%. He’s been his best when he focused on just the fastball and curve.

On the positive side, he did make 31 starts and threw for 158 IP, the most since 2007.

He did sign with the Red Sox and I feel that’s a double-edged sword for the 42-year-old. The Rays will extract the most from him, but that might mean that Hill only throws two to three innings (2.20 ERA the 1st TTO last year, 5.62 ERA the 2nd TTO) in each outing.

Overall, I think the talent might be there for a couple more seasons, but his role might keep him from being fantasy-relevant.

Dakota Hudson (439 ADP)

Hudson is interesting as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Unlike some other pitchers coming off the injury, Hudson provided a nice end-of-season two-game sample of his talent. His average fastball velocity was down to a career-low 92.1 mph leading to career lows in swinging-strike rate (6% SwStr%). He was able to generate a 65% GB% (58% GB% on his career), but the sample is too small to consider.

The hope is that he returns to his subpar 2019 form (7.0 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 57% GB%) and the Cardinals defense can bale him out.

One item I’m not 100% sure how to measure is his ability of him to limit the damage once runners are on base. Normally, high strikeout pitchers lead this category, but Hudson has the highest LOB% of any starter with a sub-8.0 K/9 over the past four seasons.

He’s been able to leverage this potential skill into a way to consistently outperform his ERA estimators. It’s just not known how predictive is the “skill”.

He could have some upside, like an increase in velocity or not walking everyone, but a step forward can’t be expected. I’m going to ignore him until he starts throwing in Spring Training.

Wade Miley (443 ADP)

Miley was having a great season until September rolled around. He was ineffective in 18 IP with an 8.35 ERA and was eventually shut down with a neck injury.

For the season’s first half, he was on fire with a 2.79 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Then, two events happened and he was never the same. First, the foreign substance ban started getting enforced. Second, he messed with his pitch mix adding a slider.

The slider did miss a good number of bats (17% SwStr%), but its low groundball rate (31% GB%) brought down his overall average from the first half (53% GB%) to the second half (45% GB%). The change saw his home run rate jump from 0.6 HR/9 to 1.5 HR/9.

He has the potential to be a usable starter, especially if he focuses on his groundball-inducing cutter (50% GB%) and changeup (61% GB%).

Reid Detmers (450 ADP)

Detmers had all the makings of a breakout prospect and failed miserably in the majors. He dominated AA with a 16.2 K/9 and a 3.50 ERA over 54 innings. After a brief stop in AAA, he struggled in every facet of his MLB game. His strikeout rate got cut in half to a disappointing 8.3 K/9. His walk (4.8 BB/9) and home run (2.2 HR/9) ballooned.

He shouldn’t be this bad. Here are some stats on his pitches (pERA is an estimate of the pitch would perform if only it was used).

Just for the record, his Steamer projected ERA is 4.30. While his slider and changeup are serviceable, the big surprise here is his poor-performing curveball. It was supposed to be his best pitch according to scouts. Here is a look at the curve.

Reid Detmers, Beautiful 74mph Curveball. 😍 pic.twitter.com/O5jVrEcsjK

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 8, 2021

I hate these slow loopy curves. They make look pretty but they get crushed. Here are the best comps I have for it.

It’s not an inspiring bunch.

I can see the possible upside with Detmers, but right now, he has too many wrinkles to iron out.