The smiles appear before the response.

Ask a few Orioles hitters for their immediate reactions to news that the club is moving in the left field wall, and their approval can be seen on their faces.

The above quote came from the Orioles caravan and got me thinking about how projections incorporate three new park changes.

I’ve seen the park changes referenced in articles and pods for reasons to fade or target certain players. I lean on projections and assume that they incorporate dimensions into account when they create their projections. If the changes are already accounted for, I don’t want to overrate affected players. After looking over various projections, most seem to take the changes into account, but some haven’t yet. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Tim Anderson spent his time off fixing some bad habits with his swing and regaining his confidence.

Anderson said things started to change after a leg injury he sustained early in the 2023 season with the White Sox. He took time off to retool his mechanics and clear his head and believes he’s now in a better place.

“I started creating bad habits with my swing,” Anderson said. “I had that injury to the leg, so once I came back, I lost the feel, I lost the touch, I lost a lot. Everything felt different. So, it caused me to start doing the wrong things and start creating that bad habit. I got caught up in that bad habit and that became a norm. That’s what caused the frustration. So, once I got released, I got in the lab and I’ve been training to break that bad habit.”

Anderson admitted it was tough mentally and that he lost confidence, but it was important for him to take time away from the game to get everything back in order. He never seriously pondered retirement, though he felt discouraged and frustrated because of his struggles.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to dive into more hitter projection comparisons after examining playing time a while back. In this article, I’ll show which projections are best in the standard roto categories (R, RBI, HR, SB, and AVG) and at the end, look at ways playing time projections could be improved.

For all the background information on the test I used (RMSE) and data sample reference the first article. These tests take forever to run and at some point, I kept getting the same answers (smartly aggregating the projections), so I stopped running any new ones for hitters. Here are the results for the tests I ran.

Test 1: Batting Average

The only hitter rate stat, batting average, begins the analysis.

While some individual projections are near the top, the averages and aggregators stay strong.

Test 2: Home Runs

Here is how the projections performed when looking at the raw number of home runs.

With Paywall #7 and Marcels crushing the playing time estimates, it’s no surprise they are at the top. And here are the home projections prorated per plate appearance.

The big surprise was that Marcels remained near the top even when the home runs were turned into a rate stat. The aggregators held up but weren’t as strong as previous tests.

Test 3: Stolen Bases

Here are the stolen bases projections ranked by the raw number

A new order of projections on this raw stat … well besides the averages performing near the top. Here they are as a rate stat.

That’s some domination by the aggregators by taking the top five spots.

Test 4 Runs plus RBI (R+RBI)

I combined the two because the results were consistent (aggregators kicking ass) and I just wanted to see if any of the results stood out like with stolen bases.

Nothing changed. Correctly guessing playing time allows a projection to dominate these rankings. It’s time to move on.

Conclusions on Hitter Projections

The answer is simple, get an aggregation of projection. ATC and Zeile already do the combination. Or a person could use Tanner Bell’s projection aggregator to personally control the inputs and weighting.

Additionally, if combining projections, I would not pay up for any with Razzball, ZiPS, THE BAT X, and Davenport all performing great.

Test 5: Where Projections Miss

Note: I cut and diced the available information in what seemed a 100 different ways. The following are the two best examples I found for why projections miss. I’m sure there are better ways to improve projection playing but I haven’t havent figured them yet.

From some of my unpublished work, I have determined that projections miss based on age, previous playing time (proxy for health), and talent (projected OPS). I wanted to find out why Marcels performed better than the standard projections. In 2024, here are the players the 4 Big Projs projected for more playing time than Marcels.

A table full of prospects (e.g. Carter, Cruz) or injured players (e.g. Lewis, Hoskins). This verifies some of my previous findings that players with checkered playing histories miss their playing time projections.

Dropping the playing time on hurt guys is not hard but it is tougher with guys like Elly. If he plays every day, he’s a steal.

For the next example, I grouped hitters by their Marcel playing time projection and combined plate appearances from the previous two seasons. Then I compared our 2021 to 2024 projected Steamer plate appearances to the actual number. Here are the results.

Steamer’s plate appearance projections perform great for regulars or bench bats. The players between those two are the toughest to estimate with over 500 PA in each previous season needed for a solid playing time projection.

While I focused on our Steamer projections, all of the other projection systems over project playing time compared to Marcels. They likely had the same issues. A fantasy manager might need to some way take into previous playing time while making future estimates.

For right now, I don’t know the right answer. As a group, it is a little embarrassing that a simple formula kicked everyone’s collective ass in playing time. In the previous article, I mentioned adding in a computer projection (e.g. Marcels) to temper expectations. I stand by that observation. For now, that’s all I can recommend.

• Some teams are considering signing Lance Lynn as a closer.

Lynn, 37, has not pitched out of the bullpen since 2018. But his agent, Kevin Lustig, recently informed him that several clubs asked if he would be interested in pitching the ninth inning.

“He said, ‘I got a couple of weird calls today.’ I was like, ‘What? Did someone ask me for a minor-league deal?’” said Lynn, who remains a free agent. “He started dying laughing. He was like, ‘No, they asked what you thought about being a back-end guy, a closer.’

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Scott Kingery ignored the Phillies’ advice in 2024 and did his own thing.

Kingery, with nothing to lose, said he did things the way he wanted to in 2024. With that came an uptick in production. His walks decreased significantly. The enhanced aggressiveness resulted in 12 more homers, 25 more hits and 20 more RBI in just 39 more at-bats compared to the year prior. But also zero call-ups. Not even a promotion back to the 40-man roster.

Last season in AAA, the 30-year-old hit .268/.316/.488 with 25 HR and 25 SB in AAA.

Astros

• Zach Dezenzo has been playing in the outfield after primarily being a third baseman.

Another option for left field is prospect Zach Dezenzo, who spent a month playing winter ball in Puerto Rico to get more at-bats and some reps in left field. Dezenzo, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Astros’ No. 6 prospect, has played mostly third base in the Minor Leagues, along with some time at second and first base. He was a shortstop when he played at Ohio State University.

While in Puerto Rico, Dezenzo played eight games in left field, 10 at first base and one at third base. The Astros have since signed Christian Walker to play first base, but there remains a real opportunity for Dezenzo to make the club as a contributor in left field.

“The whole goal for me going out there was to get reps in the outfield and get more at-bats,” Dezenzo said. “As you guys know, I missed some games earlier last season [with a wrist injury]. I was in rehab until mid-June. And getting those at-bats, continuing to play, was big. I get better when I’m playing. So I think being in those game environments, atmosphere and situation was good for me.”
…
“Zach Dezenzo played some really good left field there,” Espada said. “I think he’s someone who is going to go to spring, and I’m going to give him some looks in the outfield. I already had that conversation with him. I really like his potential, his athleticism, his bat.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:

Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford
Birdsong, Littell, Boyd, & Peterson
Sasaki, Singer, Bello, Soriano, & Weathers
Nelson, Brown, Lowder, & Megill
Montas, Holmes, Sugano, Miller, & Montgomery Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Rangers

• Josh Jung, Evan Carter, and Corey Seager are healthy.

McFarland relays that third baseman Josh Jung, outfielder Evan Carter, and shortstop Corey Seager are all healthy and ready for Spring Training next month after undergoing surgeries in the fall. Seager underwent sports hernia surgery back in September but resumed baseball activities in November, while Jung and Carter are on a slightly more delayed timeline after undergoing wrist and back surgery respectively in October.

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Astros

• J.P. France hopes to return in May.

After the surgery, he was in an arm sling for a month and did treatment in Houston until he returned home to Tennessee at the end of August. France began tossing a baseball in early December and will report to big league camp in a month to continue his rehab with the team in Florida, where he’ll remain until May.

“I could keep cruising like I am right now and get out of West Palm in April, or I could have a setback or something and stay there until June,” he said. “You never know. I feel like the way it’s going right now, hopefully I’m looking more about the 12-month mark, so that will be me [back] in July. Hopefully that’s the case. There’s a fine line because it’s a shoulder surgery and you’re not trying to rush it back, either.”

Blue Jays

• Alek Manoah plans on an August return.

The righty’s timetable for return to the mound has been unclear since then, but recently Manoah himself provided an update to Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star as part of an interview for the Star’s “Deep Left Field” baseball podcast. During the interview, Manoah identified August as his target for a return to action.

Guardians

• When he returns, David Fry will only DH next season.

At the end of last season, Fry underwent elbow surgery and will not be able to play in the field for all of 2025. At some point, he’ll be able to at least DH. This was the case for Cleveland for the second half of ’24 because of Fry’s injury, so it’s nothing the team isn’t already used to.

Rangers

• Josh Jung is “full-go”.

That one, a tendon release surgery by Dr. Steven Shin in Los Angeles, made a significant difference.

“I’m full-go,” Jung said. “I don’t know if Dr. Shin waved some magic fairy dust over my wrist or what, but so far we’ve been able to feel like a normal human. Hopefully we can continue that.”

Red Sox

• Masataka Yoshida didn’t play in the outfield last season because an arm injury prevented him from throwing.

The Red Sox swore up and down for six months that Yoshida’s lack of OF time was because they had better options, even after the injury was revealed on the last day of the season.

Today: “Yeah, our outfield defense was great last year, but in a perfect world, if he was healthy,…

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) January 11, 2025

• Marcelo Mayer will play some third base and shortstop in AAA while David Hamilton will play some outfield.

The Red Sox are looking to increase the defensive versatility of players in their system, including one of their top prospects. Cora said on Saturday that Marcelo Mayer will see time in Triple-A Worcester at second and third base, in addition to shortstop. The 22-year-old played one game at third base each of the past two years but has yet to play a professional game at second, though he has done pregame infield work at each position.

Mayer hit .307 with an .850 OPS in 77 games last season in Double A before a late-season promotion to Triple A. He did not appear in a game in Triple A as his season was cut short with a lower back strain. After a full, healthy offseason, Mayer is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.

Meanwhile, speedy infielder David Hamilton will see time in the outfield this season. Hamilton played eight games in center in 2022 and 2023.

“That’ll be fun just to see him run around,” Cora said. “We’re trying to get him as versatile as possible. He’s excited about it. We talked to him two weeks ago. He’s done it before in center field, and people are excited about that. I want to see that.”

National League

Giants

• Justin Verlander is touching 92 mph.

For the first time in his career, Verlander kept throwing all offseason, which he hopes will help him avoid more setbacks with his shoulder in the future. He said he’s already up to 92 mph and feels he’s “miles ahead of where I was last year at this time.”

I’m sure Verlander will throw harder but it’ll be interesting to see how much velocity he gains. Hitting 92 mph means he’s sitting 90 mph. Last season he sat at 93.5 mph and posted only a 7.4 K/9. He’s got some work to do.

Marlins

• Xavier Edwards has been dealing with shoulder pain since 2022.

This was nothing new to Edwards. Since sustaining a shoulder impingement in 2022 during his time in the Rays’ organization, getting his arm back in shape had been a work in progress. It didn’t matter how much arm care he did or anti-inflammatories he took. Edwards resigned himself to playing through it, though it clearly affected his velocity and accuracy.

“There were days I didn’t want to throw at all,” Edwards said. “It was uncomfortable to throw. You just have to deal with it and do whatever you can to be available and get through it, but at the same time, now in the offseason I have down time, so this is my chance to get it right.”

• During his downtime, Dane Myers “tweaked” his swing to hit for more power and make more contact.

The main reason Myers returned to the D.R. was to make up at-bats after missing two months because of a self-inflicted left ankle fracture. During his rehab stint, he tweaked his swing by standing a bit more upright in his starting point. Since Myers had a tendency to crash into the ball, it cut off room for his pull side. By making this adjustment, he should be able to stay in that position throughout his swing.
…
“It’s kind of focusing on what you can do and hoping for the best outcome,” Myers said. “I know I can hit for some power, and I know I can be on base a little bit more. And I think if I cut my strikeouts down, I think I can make that happen. The little mechanical change actually puts me in a better spot to make more consistent contact I feel like, so that kind of plays into cutting down the swing and miss, not missing good pitches that I get to hit early in at-bats.”

Mets

• With Pete Alonso going elsewhere, Mark Vientos will shift over to first base, and Luisangel Acuña, Brett Baty, and Ronny Mauricio are options at third base.

The current plan is to shift Mark Vientos to first base and have Luisangel Acuña, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio vie for third base.

Rockies

• Brenton Doyle will lead off next season.

Doyle, 26, batted just .120 in a smattering of games — 14, including 13 starts — at the top. But his tool set and his success lower in the order suggests he has a shot at emulating Blackmon, who was one of the game’s premier No. 1 hitters during his prime. The Rockies will solidify their plans during Spring Training, but club officials indicated during the Winter Meetings that the team wants to look at Doyle in the top spot.

And Doyle, who already has won two National League Gold Glove Awards for his defense in center, would like to make the leadoff spot his.

“I’m not a stranger to being a leadoff hitter — I hit leadoff quite a bit in my career coming up in the Minor Leagues,” Doyle said. “Being a leadoff hitter, to me, says they have confidence in you to get the most at-bats in a game, and try to create some momentum early in the game, as well.

Last season, Doyle only led off in 13 games. The biggest adjustment fantasy managers need to make is to up his Runs scored and drop the RBI projection.

Well, I got my yearly, “Talk to the Boss First Before Publishing” article out of the way halfway through January. I started looking into hitter playing time and previously they were just one column in one of the tables. This year, we dove into why our projections came in near the bottom with some computer-generated projections beating them. Besides the results, there is a ton of other information so if someone blows off the specific results, at least read the summary.

Collection Information

Last season I collected about 20 projections right before the final last weekend when most fantasy managers draft. This is when projections needed to be their best. Here is the tweet I sent to mark when I pulled them.

Mark time now…

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 21, 2024

In all, I collected 20 different projections. Eight were not freely available to the public. They will be just be labeled Paywall X. Here are the ones people could freely get from the internet.

• ATC (aggregate of other projections)
• Baseball-reference’s Marcels
• Clay Davenport
• Draft Buddy
• THE BAT X
• FanGraphs Depth Charts (aggregate of Steamer and ZiPS)
• Fantasy Pros Zheile (aggregate of other projections)
• Fantrax
• Razzball (Steamer Based)
• Razzball Grey (Grey’s personal projections)
• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS

Read the rest of this entry »

• MLB.com compiled a list of prospects who have seen their playing time adjusted. I’d recommend going through all of them while here is a sample focused on some Mets outfielders.

Drew Gilbert/Ryan Clifford/Jett Williams, OF, Mets: Three of the Mets’ five Top 100 prospects either have outfield listed as their primary or secondary positions. You may have heard that New York signed generational hitter Juan Soto for 15 years and $765 million. So that’s one outfield spot locked down in Queens for both the short and long term. Gilbert (Mets No. 3/MLB No. 74) is the only one of the three to play as a full-time outfielder, and while he has enough arm to play right (Soto’s spot), it’s worth wondering if he’ll get more looks in center, where New York has a more pressing need. He has plenty of offensive work to focus on after posting a .684 OPS in the Minors during an injury-riddled 2024. Williams (Mets No. 2/MLB No. 52) could still get looks in center too because he was already bumping into Francisco Lindor at short, but if he shares a Syracuse roster with Gilbert, maybe he sprinkles in more time at second base. Clifford — a 21-year-old with plus power but contact issues — might be watching the Pete Alonso transaction wire closely since many believe the Mets’ No. 4 prospect (MLB No. 87) headed to first base long-term anyways.

American League

Astros

• Lance McCullers Jr. is throwing off a mound.

RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (right flexor tendon surgery)
Expected return: 2025
McCullers, who hasn’t pitched since the 2022 World Series, is throwing off the mound with hopes of returning early this season. He had surgery in June 2023 to repair his right flexor tendon and remove a bone spur, but he suffered a setback in July 2024 and was shut down for the season.

Rangers

• As the roster currently stands, Chris Martin is the defacto closer.

General manager Ross Fenstermaker told the Rangers beat in the wake of the Martin deal that the Rangers “feel like we’ve done the bulk of our lifting at this point” (link via Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News).

That’s not a firm declaration that the team is done adding. Fenstermaker was careful to leave the door open for “creative” and “open-minded” solutions to further deepen the group. However, adding a seasoned closer is not something the organization feels is a pressing need.
…
For the time being, it looks like Martin could be the top choice in the ninth inning, but that’ll be left up to manager Bruce Bochy, Fenstermaker emphasized. The GM voiced confidence that Martin could fill the role and acknowledged that he’s in the “candidate pool” but added that the situation will “sort itself out” in the weeks/months ahead.

Red Sox

• The team will consider a six-man rotation.

At this point, all options are in play.

“I mean, philosophically, I am supportive of anything we can do to keep our best players on the field performing at a really high level, and this potentially could be one of them,” Breslow said. “It necessitates particular construction of a bullpen as well, right? We need to have relievers who are capable of throwing multiple innings. I think we have that when you think about guys like [Josh] Winckowski, guys like [Garrett] Whitlock, who has done this in the past, Criswell, who kind of bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. And so I do think that we’re well positioned to implement a six-man rotation, if that’s the direction that we want to go.”

• Ceddanne Rafaela will play center field.

While noting Rafeala’s positional versatility as an asset, Breslow made clear his preference to play Rafaela regularly in center, which would shift Duran to left and keep Abreu in right.

• David Hamilton, Vaughn Grissom, and Kristian Campbell are in play for the second base job.

With second base still open, Breslow noted David Hamilton, Vaughn Grissom and Kristian Campbell give the club infield depth. Whether that means Campbell is the Opening Day second baseman remains to be seen, but his performance, in addition to that of Grissom in spring training, may go a long way in determining that.

National League

Brewers

• Brandon Woodruff is healthy, hasn’t seen any of his velocity readings, and won’t be his true self until the season’s second half.

But with Spring Training on deck, Woodruff knows he’ll have to answer these questions soon enough. So, he let down his guard on Monday. Yes, he is throwing bullpens twice a week in Mississippi as part of a normal offseason progression. Yes, his arm feels great. No, he hasn’t seen any radar gun readings, and that’s by design.

…

Woodruff will be patient. If it takes adjustments to his pitch mix to succeed, he says he’s open to it. He doesn’t expect to get a true estimate of his velocity and stuff until the second half. And he’ll push forward with a renewed love for the game, knowing how it feels when baseball is taken away.

Diamondbacks

• The manager is fine with A.J. Puk as their closer.

The D-backs have the 29-year-old under team control for another two seasons. Manager Torey Lovullo told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo during the winter meetings that Puk would be his internal pick at the moment, but the decision was far from being made.

“If you had me trapped in a corner and I had to fight you by telling you one name, I’d probably say A.J. right now, but it’s a wide open situation,” Lovullo said.

Giants

• The catching situation is a mess.

Patrick Bailey will be back as the Giants’ starting catcher in 2025, but there are some question marks surrounding veteran Tom Murphy, who appeared in only 13 games before suffering a season-ending left knee injury last May. Murphy remains in line to serve as Bailey’s primary backup after signing a two-year, $8.25 million deal last offseason, but Huff’s arrival should give the Giants some extra coverage in case they’re hit with more injuries this spring.

Huff is out of options, meaning the Giants won’t be able to send him to the Minors without exposing him to waivers. San Francisco’s catching depth chart also features Blake Sabol and veteran Max Stassi, who signed a Minor League deal in November.

None of the options are safe with Bailey being on the concussion IL three times in the past two seasons, Murphy coming back from knee surgery, and Sam Huff struggling before being released by the Rangers with his career 34% K%.

Nationals

• Josh Bell wants to hit the ball hard and in the air.

“I’ve had a tough time the last couple of years just with getting the ball off the ground,” Bell said. “Knowing that I’m a double-play candidate, one of the things I’m working on this offseason is just trying to get the ball in the air as much as possible and taking whatever comes with that.
…
“But this offseason, changing my hitting philosophy, changing the drills and just understanding that I have to hang on my backside a little bit more, focus on letting the ball travel, but also try to stay connected as tightly as I can to get the ball in the air. … [If I] train to do that and work with our strength team, and understand that I have a big frame, I should probably hit more than 19 home runs a season.

“Hopefully a year from now, I can be looking back at the season where I hit 40-plus [homers] and breaking my own records for slug in a season. So that’s the goal.”

Pirates

• This is the first mention I’ve seen of Endy Rodriguez playing some first base.

What should I expect from Endy Rodríguez this year? — @Robotron.blog on Bluesky

The good news is Rodríguez finished last season healthy and got a couple of Minor League reps. No winter ball this year, but I wouldn’t read into that.

Joey Bart has the inside track for the catcher job after a solid season, but the position is a competition. Rodríguez can play a little first base, too, so while Pittsburgh is going to want to make sure he gets at-bats, I could see a way he and Bart can coexist and get regular reps.

Reds

• Gavin Lux started playing all out in the second half of last season.

In the second half of the 2024 season, Lux batted .304 with an .899 OPS and seven homers over 61 games. He credited his improvement to mental changes in his approach.

“It helped getting further away from surgery and to start trusting it again,” Lux said. “I just tried to do more damage. I think I tried to get on base and control the strike zone so much that I didn’t really take any chances to do damage. I kind of just said, ‘Screw it, I’ll trust my eyes and I’m not going to chase the ball. I’m not going to swing at balls. I’m not going to chase outside of the zone.’ Then I just tried to start doing a little more damage, taking more shots.”