Teams try to avoid having a rookie get labeled with the Super 2 status so they can pay the rookie less over their career. The call up time is coming soon, so it now looks like it may be time to pick up one of these rookies before other fantasy owners in your league.
One group of players that are usually under utilized are relievers that have SP qualification. For leagues that have daily transactions, these pitchers can fit in nicely for real starting pitchers on their off days. They are must haves in leagues that count holds. Also, they may vulture a save or win here and there and help pad your rate stats.
Kelly Johnson came into the season a fairly decent option at second base. In one keeper league I was in, him and Ben Zobrist were both available. I considered them to be at the same talent level and went with Johnson. Wrong choice. Today I will look to see why Johnson has fallen on hard times and was there any signs for the drop off in production?
First off here is a look at some of his stats over the years and his 2011 ZIPS projection:
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | K% | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2005 | Braves | 87 | 334 | 9 | 46 | 40 | 2 | 25.9 % | 0.295 | 0.241 | 0.334 | 0.397 |
| 2007 | Braves | 147 | 608 | 16 | 91 | 68 | 9 | 22.5 % | 0.328 | 0.276 | 0.375 | 0.457 |
| 2008 | Braves | 150 | 614 | 12 | 86 | 69 | 11 | 20.7 % | 0.340 | 0.287 | 0.349 | 0.446 |
| 2009 | Braves | 106 | 346 | 8 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 17.8 % | 0.247 | 0.224 | 0.303 | 0.389 |
| 2010 | Diamondbacks | 154 | 671 | 26 | 93 | 71 | 13 | 25.3 % | 0.339 | 0.284 | 0.370 | 0.496 |
| 2011 | ZiPS (R) | 438 | 14 | 59 | 44 | 10 | 23.7 % | 0.306 | 0.260 | 0.334 | 0.450 | |
| 2011 | Diamondbacks | 39 | 168 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 34.2 % | 0.250 | 0.184 | 0.253 | 0.309 |
Kelly actually looks to produce pretty decent in a few fantasy categories if he keeps producing at his current rate. If he were to play in 120 games, thereby tripling the number of games he would be in, his SB would extract out to 18 (a career high). Also his Runs (51) and home runs (12) would be respectable. His main problem is his 0.184 AVG.
There are two main factors driving down his batting average. The first is his lower than average BABIP of 0.250. He put up a BABIP of 0.339 last season and was projected to have one around 0.306 for this season. His LD% has dropped from 20.5% to 15% this season with most of the change going to GB%. Using the common run that every 1% drop in LD%, BABIP goes down 0.010, this would explain the drop in BABIP.
In 2009, he had an even lower BABIP (0.247) than he does this season, but his AVG was 40 points higher. The main cause for this difference is that Kelly is striking out twice as much (34.2%) this season, then he did in in 2009 (17.8%). Here is a look at his plate discipline over the past few years:
| Year | Team | Swing % | Contact% | O-Contact | Z-Contact | SwStr% |
| 2005 | Braves | 42.3 % | 79.1 % | 33.0 % | 87.4 % | 8.8 % |
| 2007 | Braves | 39.3 % | 82.2 % | 59.7 % | 89.4 % | 6.9 % |
| 2008 | Braves | 46.9 % | 80.8 % | 59.1 % | 88.9 % | 8.9 % |
| 2009 | Braves | 44.8 % | 84.4 % | 59.1 % | 93.9 % | 7.1 % |
| 2010 | Diamondbacks | 46.2 % | 76.9 % | 58.5 % | 86.9 % | 10.4 % |
| 2011 | Diamondbacks | 49.1 % | 72.4 % | 63.8 % | 78.1 % | 13.2 % |
He is swinging at a few more pitches than in the last couple of years. This trend is not necessarily bad, but he is making less and less contact. His contact rate has dropped 12 percentage points (84.4% to 72.4%) over the last couple of years. The problem is not with him swinging at balls outside of the strike zone, in which his contact rate is up. Actually, he is having problems making contact with pitches in the strike zone (94% down to 78%).
Coming into the season, his AVG looked to regress some considering the high BABIP he had in 2010. His BABIP did regress, but the main cause of the lack of production is his inability to put the ball in play for the pitches he swings at. It would have been tough to predict the huge increase in strikeouts this season.
Kelly may be a buy low candidate (as he looks to still have a little power and can steal a few bases), but his average right now will drag down the rest of the team. Until he is able to start hitting line drives and putting the bat on the ball, an owner may need to look for other options.
Twice in the last week I was asked if the concussion that David Wright received on August 15, 2009 from a Matt Cain fastball was the cause of his recent drop in production. I decided see what if anything has changed in David Wright from before getting hit in the head and after.
Today I will look at which of Dustin Pedroia or Brandon Phillips I would prefer to have as my 2B over the rest of the year. Pedroia has been a bit of a disappointment, while Phillips has had a better than expect season so far.
Today let’s take a look at 3 pitchers that expect to make a start sometime this week after returning from the DL. With all three pitchers, it may be advisable to sit them for their first game back in order to see where each one’s fastball stands and to make sure that they don’t immediately re-injure themselves.
All the percentages owned are from ESPN.
Here are the top 30 2B in order and broken up into tiers
Tier 1 – Expected to be one of the top 2B in the league and meeting expectations.
We had Cano as the top rated 2B this season and he is #2 overall right now behind Zobrist. He is hitting for power (8 home runs), average (0.308) and has even swiped a couple of bases. He only had 3 SB last season. My concern always with Cano is his miniscule walk rate which currently stands at 2.7%.
For the next few weeks, I will be looking at a players who had injuries in 2010 and how they are performing in 2011. I plan on looking at pitchers that came back from Tommy John for next week, but please let me know of any previously injured players you want examined.
Adrian Gonzalez (shoulder): Adrian was one a great acquisitions for the Boston Red Sox this off season. He came in and played 1B thereby allowing Kevin Youkilis to stay in the lineup and play 3B. So far this season, Gonzalez’s production has not been good, especially when looking at his power.
At the beginning of the season, the Rotographs authors compiled a composite ranking of 2B. After a month of the season completed, here is a look at how that initial ranking compare to the players’ production so far.
Today I am going to look at three 2B who had injury problems in previous seasons and see how they are doing in 2011.
Rickie Weeks – Besides missing just one day last week due to a finger injury, it has been almost 1.5 years since Rickie has missed a day due to an injury. Before 2010, he was a walking injury as seen by this list of time lost from 2006 to 2009:
