RotoGraphs is looking for information on the types of leagues that our readers are in order to more specialize the content. Feel free to submit information on one or as many leagues you belong. Any information would be greatly appreciated. Goto the following link to answer the questions. Thanks for your time and we will publish the results soon.
I always love an under dog story and this season that love story has come in the form of Ryan Roberts. The thirty year-old has hit 5 more home runs this season than in his 5 previous MLB seasons combined. Even though a few older players finally are able to break out (see Jose Bautista), the data shows that Ryan probably won’t be one of the those players. My heart is still pulling for him though.
Ryan was drafted in 2003 by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 18th round. In 8 minor league seasons, he hit for a triple slash line of 0.274/0.373/0.448. Not shabby, but nothing to really write home about. During his minor league days he hit 96 home runs, or 1 every 33 PA. During that time frame, both of the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers released him before he ended up signing with Arizona. With Arizona he was able to get a total of 422 PA in 2009 and 2010. In the 5 seasons he saw MLB playing time, he hit for a slash line of 0.251/0.333/0.389 in 453 PA.
In 2011, not that much has changed in Ryan, except he has decided to begin hitting with more power. His slash line this season is 0.259/0.355/0.447. His AVG and OBP are nearly the same, but his SLG has increase quite a bit. It is being fueled by 15 HRs, or 1 every 26 PA. This rate is better than he did in his minor league career. This jump in home runs can further be seen in his increase in HR/FB% from a previous value of 7.1% to 12.8% this season. He is actually hitting just about the same percentage of fly balls (42.5%) compared to his career value (43.6%).
The increase in home runs could actually be from hitting the ball further this season. The following is a graph of his average batted ball distances over the past 3 years on fly balls and home runs.
It can be seen that even during this season, he is not hitting the ball as far. The previous graph almost mirrors the following graph of his ISO over the last 3 years.
I don’t see any signs of his home run power being real.
The one addition trait for Ryan is that he has stolen 14 bases in 21 attempts this season. In his previous 5 seasons, he had a total of 7 SB in 10 attempts. Thirty year-olds are not really known for their speed break outs. I would be amazed if he continued to get the green light in the future.
As much as my heart wants the journey man/late bloomer to be the real deal, the information shows that this season is pointing to a career year for Ryan and not much more. His power burst this season is hallow and he is not going to enjoy the speed numbers going forward considering his age.
The waiver wire for available players on the DL is getting thin right now. Most teams are shutting down players that could possibly come off the DL for the last couple weeks of the season. Here is a look at a few players owned in less than 50% of all leagues.
Justin Morneau (45.1% ESPN) – Justin is in AAA rehabbing for the next week. After that assignment, he should be getting a call back to the majors. There is no reason not to own him in any league.
Jose Tabata (20.2%) and Alex Presley (4.2%) – Both of these two Pirates look to be coming off the DL in the next week or so. They will replace Xavier Paul in the Pirates outfield, but how they will split up their playing time is still unknown. They will probably be platooned with Presley (LHH) to face RHP and Tabata (RHH) to face LHP. They both look to be a decent source of SB (Tabata 14 SB in 257 AB and Presley with 4 SB in 81 AB). Also, Presley has hit for 0.333 in his few plate appearances this season.
Jed Lowrie (11.9%) – Lowrie joins the Red Sox tonight (Monday). The key to his return is how Marco Scutaro and him will split playing time at SS. Terry Francona has stated that the two will split time depending on match ups. Lowrie has multiple position eligibilities, but it may not matter if he doesn’t get much playing time.
Jordan Schafer (1.0%) – Once he gets off the DL in about a week, he will be the everyday center fielder for the Astros. For an owner in need of steals (15 SB in 196 AB), he is a viable option, especially in deep or NL only leagues.
Stephen Strasburg (12.3 %) – Pick him up now if available. He looks like he is going to pitch a few MLB games. With other pitchers possibly being shut down at the end of season, he could be valuable for an owner in the playoffs or one making a final push up in the standings.
Adam Wainwright (1.7%) – He is not going to pitch this season, but for keeper leagues he should be added for next year. He has several uses during the off season even if an owner doesn’t plan on actually using him for a keeper. He could be added to a trade to sweeten the pot. Also, depending on the league rules, he could be held right until the keepers are selected as insurance in case one of the other keepers gets injured.
Ross Ohlendorf (0.0%) – The waiver wire for starting pitchers returning this season is slim. Ohlendorf is set to pitch later this week for the Pirates. If you are in need of SP, I would pick him up, hold him on the DL for a game or two to see how he performs and then possibly move him to your roster or drop him.
Today I am am looking at the top 20 2B for the rest of the season. I am not taking into account if they should be moved up or down for keeper value, just their production this season. I am looking for healthy and versatile players on teams looking to make a playoff run to maximize playing time. The following is my rankings with notes on some players.
1. Dustin Pedroia – It took him a while to get going, but the SB ability ranks him above Cano.
2. Robinson Cano – Finally knocked off the top perch. He is solid, but lacking the SB.
3. Ben Zobrist – I put him over the next two do to position flexibility.
4. Ian Kinsler – Pedroia without the average.
5. Chase Utley – Utley has really picked it up and is putting up HRs and SBs at near Pedroia pace.
The following 4 (#6 to #9) may not put up the numbers of the next 3 (#10 to #12), but their multiple position elligibilites are a must at the end of the season. With most league’s trading deadlines already past or coming up, these hitters can help with roster flexibility if a player on your team hits the DL.
6. Michael Cuddyer
7. Michael Young
8. Daniel Murphy
9. Ryan Roberts – I am not sold at all on him going forward to next season, but 15 HRs and 14 SB in about 100 PA less than most of the other 2B is not shabby.
I like the following 4 2B quite a bit. If you own any of them, there is not much of a reason to look for an upgrade.
10. Brandon Phillips
11. Danny Espinosa
12. Neil Walker
13. Howie Kendrick
14. Dustin Ackley – I would have him much higher for a team out of contention in a keeper league. I could see him struggle as pitchers begin to adjust to him.
15. Martin Prado
16. Kelly Johnson – Really streaky. I drafted him in too many leagues and he is driving me nuts.
17. Dan Uggla – Extremely one dimensional with his 22 HRs (and the Runs and RBI that go with it). Could definitely be higher or lower on the list depending an owners need for HRs.
18. Rickie Weeks – A player must be on the field to help and he may not be available until September. If an owner is in contention in a keeper league, it may be wise to trade him off for a lesser talent to help with the final push.
19. Placido Polanco – Falling hard since he is not able to keep his BA near 0.300.
20. Jemile Weeks – SBs are elite. AVG is nice. Power is non existent. I about put Gordon Beckham here instead.
The following is a quick look at how the fantasy value changed for a few players involved in trades that were made this weekend.
Ubaldo Jimenez (to Indians) – Ubaldo’s fantasy value doesn’t look to change much by going from the Rockies to the Indians. The most obvious change is that he should allow less runs by moving from a hitter friendly park in Denver to a league neutral park in Cleveland. On the other hand, the Indian’s defense (-16.6 UZR) is worse than the Rockies (-0.8 UZR) which will lead to higher ERA and WHIP as more batted balls become hits. Also, he will be facing a little tougher competition in the AL, so his ERA and WHIP could go higher.
Asdrubal Cabrera has always shown the ability to hit the ball, but he is hitting significantly more home runs this season. His fantasy owners will be happy to know that there are signs that the increase in power looks sustainable.
In 1610 PA before this season, he hit 18 home runs, or 1 every 89 PA. This season, the twenty-five year old has almost equaled his career total in only 445 PA with 17 HRs — or 1 every 26 PA. These new home runs have really increased his value, especially since he is a shortstop. By looking at his contact rate, batted ball profile, batted ball angle and distance, let’s try to determine if the increase is from luck or a change in his ability.
Contact – The switch hitter is making contact 1% more often this season when compared to his career numbers. He is putting a few more balls into play, but not a significant percentage more.
Batted Ball Profile – Cabrera is definitely hitting more fly balls this season when compared to his previous 4 seasons. In those 4 seasons, he hit an FB 32% of the time. In 2011, that value is at 37%.
Hitting 5% points more fly balls will definitely help increase his HR total, but not to the level to triple the number hit. The key is not that he is hitting more FB, but about half as many of the FB (13.8%) are going for HR’s compared to his career numbers (7.2%).
Batted Ball Direction – Using the direction that the ball is hit, we can decide if he is turning on the ball more and putting it in the short porches in left and right field. Using an angle with -45 degrees as the left field line and 45 degrees as the right field line, the average direction of his fly balls and home runs can be determined. Since he is a switch hitter, the the average angles from both sides of the plate need to be examined (most of his home runs are from the left side of the plate):
Batting Right Handed (angle in degrees)
2007 = -3
2008 = +3
2009 = +9
2010 = -7
2011 = +8
Batting Left Handed
2007 = -6
2008 = -4
2009 = -5
2010 = -4
2011 = 0
Looking at when he is hitting right handed, he is definitely not pulling the ball more. Most of his home runs, 13 of the 17, have come when he is batting left handed where he is pulling the ball more this season then in any previous season. It is not a whole lot, but enough to make a difference.
Batted Ball Distance: Besides the angle, the actual distance the ball travels can be examined for when he hits left and right handed
Distance (in feet)
Bating Right Handed
2007 = 270 ft
2008 = 269 ft
2009 = 273 ft
2010 = 273 ft
2011 = 281 ft
Batting Left Handed
2007 = 281 ft
2008 = 276 ft
2009 = 300 ft
2010 = 273 ft
2011 = 286 ft
In 2011, Cabrera hit the ball further than in any season except for one year. He is generally hitting the ball around 10 ft further in 2011 than in the past from either side of the plate.
Conclusion: Even though Cabrera is making the same amount of contact with the baseball compared to past seasons, he is hitting more fly balls, hitting them further and towards the OF corners. The rise in home runs per fly ball may seem a bit high for Cabrera, but there are signs that the increase seen this season is not all luck.
Yesterday, the Cardinals, Blue Jays and White Sox exchanged players with each team ending up with the following players:
Blue Jays: Colby Rasmus, Mark Teahen, Brian Tallet, Trever Miller, P.J. Walters
Cardinals: Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, Edwin Jackson, Corey Patterson
White Sox: Jason Frasor, Zach Stewart
Here is a quick look at how the trade effects the fantasy value of players involved and not involved in the trade.
Colby Rasmus (to Toronto) – Rasmus’s fantasy value probably doesn’t change too much going from St. Louis to Toronto. Here are the main factors I see changing his value.
1. In St Louis, he batted towards the top of the order, 2nd, 5th or 6th. With Toronto, I would not be surprised to see him fall into the the #2 spot. This will give him more opportunities for Runs, but less for RBIs.
2. He will probably be seeing better pitching from the teams in the AL East compared to NL Central. This advantage is less this season than in previous seasons as the NL Central pitching has improved, notably with Milwaukee.
3. Rogers Centre in Toronto (100 wOBA park factor) is friendlier to hitters than Busch Stadium (95 wOBA park factor).
Rasmus’s fantasy value will not be exactly known until the Blue Jays define his exact role. I would not adjust his fantasy value up or down at this point.
Edwin Jackson – (to St. Louis) – Jackson’s move to St. Louis initially looks to improve his fantasy value for the following reasons:
1. He moves out of the 6 man rotation that Chicago was using. He will now be pitching every 5 days for St. Louis, giving his owners more chances to accumulate stats.
2. Busch Stadium (95 wOBA park factor) is more of a pitcher’s park than U.S. Cellular Field (103 wOBA park factor).
3. His ERA (3.92) is a little inflated compared to his FIP (3.21) xFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.65) and could decrease as the season goes on.
4. Dave Duncan Effect. If Duncan could make Todd Wellemeter an OK pitcher for a season, he should be able to at least keep Jackson at the same production level.
The move to St. Louis looks to only improve Jackson’s value.
Brent Morel – With Mark Teahen gone from Chicago, Morel looks to take over as the everyday 3B for the White Sox. When both players were on the team this season, Morel started 62 games at 3B while Teahen started 23. While Morel’s rate stats look to remain constant, he will see a jump in his counting stats because he will see more time at 3B.
St. Louis Outfield – The trade of Rasmus helps the value of Berkman, Jay and Holliday as each will not have to share time with Rasmus in the field. Skip Schumaker will be the back up OF if one of the big 3 go down, but at this time he is worthless in fantasy baseball.
St. Louis Bullpen (gains Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski) – With 5 different pitchers recording a save this year, the Cardinals did not have a steady closer at the beginning of the season. Since Salas has taken over as the closer, there has been less fluctuation in the bullpen. I don’t see Dotel or Rzepczynski becoming the closer anytime soon.
All park factors are from StatCorner.com
Jacoby Ellsbury – After spending much of 2010 on the DL, Ellsbury has had a nice break out season in 2011. The main reason for his increase in production has been the ability of the 27 year old to more hit home runs. In over 1500 PA before 2011, he hit a total of 20 home runs. In less than 1/3 that number of PA this season, he has hit 16. I believe the spike in home runs is not caused by a change in his batting profile and can not be sustained.
Note: I am gone for the week and scheduled and wrote this article ahead of time so some of the stats may be a couple days old.
There are several items to look for to see if a batter has changed in order to hit more homes. The keys are making contact with the ball more, hitting more fly balls, the direction he hits those fly balls and how far the balls travel.
First, he is putting the ball in play about the same as in the past, maybe actually a little less. His BB% (7.5%) and K% (13.5%) are both a bit higher then his career averages (6.9% and 12.1%).
The second key is that his OFFB% this year (22.9%) is a bit higher then his career value (19.8%). These fly balls have been leaving the yard more often as seen by a jump in his HR/FB% from a career number of 7.8% to 15.2%.
An increase in home runs can usually attributed to hitting the ball further or hitting the ball into shorter corner OF porches. Jose Bautista did both of these two to accomplish his recent break out.
First, here is a look at the angles (-45 is the LF line and +45 is the RF line) of the fly balls and home runs, Ellsbury, a left handed hitter, has hit over the last 3 years. A LOESS averaging curve is added to look for trends.
He has been turning on the ball a bit more in 2011 than in the 2 previous seasons. It is not the at the level that that some hitters do, but it is an improvement.
Finally, the average distance of his outfield fly balls and home runs can be examined to see if he is actually hitting the ball further.
This season Ellsbury has not hit the ball any further than in previous seasons, actually less so.
Conclusion:
There has not been a huge change in Ellsbury’s home run talent this season in my opinion. He is hitting more fly balls and more into the right field corner. On the other hand, he is hitting the ball less and a shorter distance. He may have been unlucky in hitting home runs in previous seasons and this season’s totals is a regression to the mean or this season could be his career year. Either way, I would expect his season home run total to be in the low teens in the future.
On Friday, I posted an article on SP/RP qualified relievers. In the comments, Andrew asked my take on Sam LeCure and/or Lance Lynn, so I will look at both now.
Note: I am gone for the week and scheduled and wrote this article ahead of time so some of the stats may be a couple days old.
Sam LeCure (0.0% ESPN) – Lecure has been relegated to the bullpen after making a few starts in April. As a reliever, he has been lights out with an ERA of 0.71, 0.75 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 3 Holds over 24.1 IP in 16 games. An over 4:1 SO:BB ratio is always nice from any pitcher.
He has been helped by a 0.217 BABIP and 3.7% HR/FB%. Even though his FIP (2.49) and xFIP (3.22) as a reliever are several times larger than his ERA, they are still respectable.
One main issue holding down his value is that he is not being used in a way to pick up Holds. Since his last Hold on May 16, he has only been used in one game that the Reds held a lead and it was 5-0 win.
Lecure is a nice SP/RP source for Ks and can help pad an owner’s WHIP and ERA. His main drawback is that he is not being used in a way to pick up Holds.
Lance Lynn (0.1% ESPN) – After making a couple starts in early June, Lynn has been in the Cardinals bullpen where he has thrived. In nine games as a reliever, he has a 2.45 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.89 WHIP and 2 Holds. His ERA is in line with his FIP (2.76) and xFIP (1.86).
The high K rate looks to regress a bit after looking at some other numbers. First his SwgStr% is 9.1%, which normally equates to a K/9 of 7.5 K/9, not 9.7 K/9 (I had to used combined SP and RP data since there are no splits for SwgStr%). The 7.5 K/9 values is closer to his average AAA K/9 value of 7.9. All of the AAA numbers where as a SP, but they give an idea of his K ability.
To start the season, Lynn was not used in a way to accumulate Holds. His usuage has changed a bit recently where he has accumulated his only two Holds of the season in 2 of his last 4 outings.
Lynn looks to be a nice source of WHIP, ERA and Holds. He should help with Ks, but probably not at the level he has so far this season.
I have profiled several SP/RP qualified relievers so far this season (here and here and here) with David Hernandez currently being the best out of the bunch. Today I am going to dig a little deeper and look at some SP/RP relievers on the fringe of being owned.
Alfredo Aceves (0.6% owned ESPN) – On the surface, Aceves looks to have pitched OK as a reliever this season with 7 Holds, 2.64 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. These stats are all smoke and mirrors. The rate stats are being driven by a low BABIP of 0.188. His FIP (4.72) and xFIP (4.60) are much higher.
The one item he has been able to improve has a reliever is his walks. As a starter his walk rate is 5.57 BB/9, but as a reliever it is down to 2.64 BB/9.
I would not count on him padding your rate stats. I could see him being a decent source of counting stats like Holds (Boston should have plenty of leads) or Wins.
Daniel McCutchen (0.1% owned ESPN) – Like Aceves, McCutchen has some nice stats as a reliever, a 3-1 record, 8 Holds, a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.19 ERA. His low ERA is being driven down by a low BABIP (0.265) and HR/FB (6.3%). McCutchen has not been much of a strikeout pitcher in his time in the majors (4.9 K/9) and has walked a few too many batters (3.1 BB/9). All these stats lead to a FIP (3.87), xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.13) that are each about twice his ERA.
The only reason I see to own him is if an owner is in desperate need of Holds.
Aaron Laffey (0.0% owned ESPN) – Another player with a nice and pretty ERA (2.39). His ERA is not being suppessed by a super low BABIP (0.280) or HR/FB (13.9%). Instead, he has some how stranded 91.3% of the base runners allowed this season. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but his FIP (4.61), xFIP (4.00) and SIERA (3.83) are all a bit higher than his ERA. With a K/BB of 1.75, he doesn’t provide much promise.
Also, he is generally not even used as a setup man, so his chances of generating Holds is at a minimum.
Final thoughts
All 3 of these pitchers have an ERA that is not sustainable and provide little in the way of Ks. If you are looking for some SP/RP qualified pitchers, I would look for one mention in one of my previous articles.
