Mike Trout (8% ESPN, 12% Yahoo) – Coming into the season, Mike was considered one of the top prospects in baseball. Since starting his first game on July 8th, he has struggled a bit in the majors by producing a slash line of 0.220/0.282/0.420. Fantasy owners have noticed his struggles and his ownership rate has dropped to 8% in ESPN leagues and 12% in Yahoo leagues. Several factors point to him being a valuable assest over the last few weeks of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

I introduced Luck last week and expanded the work to change hitter’s Luck to a rate stat. Today I am going to look at pitcher’s Luck as a rate stat. Pitcher Luck is mainly linked to a pitcher’s ERA, but it can also be related to their WHIP (extra hits) and Wins (less runs allowed).

When I first looked at pitcher Luck, I added up the entire amount of luck a pitcher had over a season. This method created too much emphasis on playing time. If two pitchers had the same LOB%, HR/FB% and BABIP, they should have the same luck no matter how many innings they pitched. I took the old Luck value and divided it by the total batted balls in play (TBF – K – BB – HBP). After doing the division, I adjusted the values to a -10 to +10 scale (link to spreadsheet with 2010 and 2011 data).

Initially, LOB% and BABIP got the same weightings and HR/FB% was weighted twice as much as the other two. I am keeping the HR/FB% weighting, but only giving a weighting of 1/2 for both of BABIP and LOB%. The reason for this change is that LOB% is directly related to having a higher BABIP. Luck on balls in play will be taken into account, but not as much as before.

With these new adjustments, here is a look at leaders and laggards for both the new and old Luck values (> 100 IP this season):

Luck can be seen as the differences between the pitcher’s ERA and their FIP and xFIP. With each lucky pitcher, their ERA is less than their FIP and xFIP. The unlucky pitchers are the other way with their ERA being more than both their FIP and xFIP.

Additionally, I went back and looked at how Luck stood up last season. I took all the pitchers with the bottom and top 10 Luck values from 2010 and saw what their ERA did in 2011 (min 40 IP in 2011). Here is how 2010’s top 10 luckiest pitchers have fared so far in 2011:

Seven of the pitcher’s ERAs have increased with an average overall increase of 0.88.

Here are the ten unluckiest pitchers in 2010 and how their ERA changed in 2011:

This group on average saw their ERA drop by 0.82

The effects of luck can also be seen with Wins and WHIP. Here is a comparison of the chances of a win per start and WHIP for 2010’s luckiest pitchers and how they performed in 2011:

Per 32 starts, the pitchers averaged 3 less wins in 2011. Also, their WHIP was 0.06 higher even though their BB/9 went from 3.3 to 2.9.

For now, I like the results of pitcher’s Luck. It easily finds pitchers that may have their stats inflated by being unlucky on balls in play, home runs and sequence of hits (LOB%). It is a little late in the season to track pitchers for this season, but I will have of a final 2011 list and will be using it during the off season to help find under valued players. Again, let me know what you think.

With pitchers being shut down to prevent injuries, there are a few pitchers (< 50% ownership rate) looking to coming back this season. Last week, I looked at 2 of the pitchers, Scott Baker (20% owned) and Johan Santana (8% owned). They would have the same opportunity of contributing as the two pitchers listed today, but with a better chance of being available in a league

All owned numbers are from ESPN.

Clay Buchholz (back- 43% owned) – Clay is making progress for a return back to Boston. With the current disrepair of the Red Sox pitching staff, I could see them making a larger than normal push to get Clay back into the rotation.

He is just beginning to throw from the mound, so a return is still up in the air. I see him getting one or two starts to see if he is ready for the post season. He may be a source of a win or two with the help of Boston’s offense.

His talent level will be tough to predict for just a couple of games. He put up around 6.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 during the time he has thrown this season. I would not be surprised to see his K’s down a bit because of being rushed back into pitching and his back, which don’t heal easily, was the spot of injury. Depending on the risk an owner is willing to take, he may be an option over the last week or so.

Francisco Liriano (shoulder – 41% owned) – Francisco is trying to come back to pitch a bit this season. No exact return time has been reported, so when or if he returns is still unknown. Like Buchholz, his ability to help much over the last few games is limited. His best usage may be for a team in the finals of a H2H league that has lost some starting pitching recently.

Before going on the DL, he average 7.4 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. These numbers are off from 2010 when he had 9.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. It seems his ERA/FIP/xFIP follow his fastball speed:

2005 (94.8 MPH): 5.70/3.32/1.99
2006 (94.7 MPH): 2.16/2.55/2.38
2008 (90.9 MPH): 3.91/3.87/4.25
2009 (91.7 MPH): 5.80/4.87/4.48
2010 (93.7 MPH): 3.62/2.66/2.95
2011 (91.8 MPH): 4.84/4.55/4.47

If he makes one start, an owner may look to see where his fastball stands. If it is averaging less than 92 MPH, you make look at other options. If there is any report from the minors of his speed, I would subtract 2 MPH from it. Usually only the top speed is reported, so the average will be less.

Liriano may or may not be heading back to the Twins. I would not consider him a top SP candidate, but he could be one of the few options left this late in the season.

On Monday, I introduced my Luck stat for pitchers and hitters. Today, I will look into some improvements to the hitter portion of the stat. Read the rest of this entry »

Today I am looking at available 2nd basemen (<10% owned) that could help a team in the last few weeks of the season.

Note: All owned numbers are from ESPN.

Scott Sizemore (6.7% owned) – Scott began the season with the Tigers before getting traded to the A’s. Since the trade, he has seen regular time at 3B. He looks to be a decent option for a team needing help at 2B (or 3B).

Scott has hit for decent power this season with 9 home runs in only 360 PA, with 2 to 3 coming in every month he has played. In September so far, he already had 2 home runs to go with a 0.294 AVG.

If you believe in going with the current hot hitter, Sizemore is your man. In the last 7 games, he has a 0.294/0.400/0.647 slash line. The improvement is not from an inflated BABIP (0.231), but instead from cutting his K% down from around 25% to 10%.

Also, Scott is qualified at both 2B and 3B. The extra versatility helps with maintaining a full active roster in the last couple of weeks. He will probably not be able to maintain his current increase in AVG, but for players owned in less than 10% of all league, Scott is probably the best 2B available.

Jimmy Paredes (2.1% owned) – Jimmy has been the starting 3B (2B qualified for this season) for the Astros since the 1st of August. He has produced a triple slash line of 0.300/0.336/0.433. On the surface he looks like a good option, but his stats are a bit inflated.

He currently has a 0.400 BABIP for the season. This BABIP will not be maintained (a season’s best value is usually around 0.380). Besides a BABIP adjustment lowering his average, he strikes out more than 26% of the time.

The key for Jimmy is that he is starting everyday and accumulating counting stats, no matter how small. If an owner’s AVG is set in the rankings for the season, it may be best to add a hitter like Jimmy. He is not a good player, but he is available and playing everyday (no platoon) and that is all some teams need in a player.

Trevor Plouffe (4.2% owned) is another option and Dan Wade recently wrote about him here at Rotographs.

You play to win the game.

Owners have messed and fussed the entire year (or years) to get to the playoffs. Now it is time to win it all. Every player on a playoff roster needs to be able to help the team in some way. Prospects may need to be dumped for players getting playing time. Don’t drop Bryce Harper if in a keeper league, but you need to make a decision on the your keepers for next season. Get a good idea of these keepers and the rest of the players on your team are then expendable.

Know your and your opponent’s weakness and strengths.

I have made the playoffs in one league and I will win the weekly categories of hitter walks and pitcher strikeouts. I haven’t lost these categories all season. My opponent should not be looking to pick up these categories. Instead they should be looking at Holds, Saves, HR and SB. These categories they have a chance to win.

To get an idea of where the battles are going to be fought, a couple of areas need to be looked at. First, I would look at the entire season rankings of stats, Roto style, and see where each team stands. Does the other team dominate Saves? Maybe compete in Wins then. Also, I would go back over the last few weeks and see how each team compares in various categories. Look to see if there was any significant changes to their team over that time. Did the team trade one of its closers for a power hitter?

Find the categories of contention and try to gain some advantage in them. Are you both close in steals and few extra could make the difference? Are they punting saves and a couple more SP/RP starters will help you win the K and Win categories?

Playing time is more important than talent.

The playoffs are not the time to go chasing after the next big thing being called up from the minors. With 7 of the 10 categories in basic H2H being counting stats, an owner needs players on the field. Also, make sure to check to see if any of your current player’s playing time has changed because of a player being called up.

If you have the win, don’t lose it.

Adjust as the week goes on by holding onto gains in certain stats. If an owner has a huge early lead in WHIP, Saves and ERA, remove the starters if the innings limit as been reached. Just coast with these values until the end of the week and concentrate on winning the batting stats. For example, feel free to drop a pitcher to make sure you have an extra catcher for off days.

Final games of the season.

Right at the end of the season, an owner can game the system with little recourse. If in a non-keeper league, dump pitchers once they have thrown their last start. Depending on what categories are needing help will determine which pitchers are picked up. If Wins and Ks are needed, pick up as many pitchers starting the final days. If you need to improve your ERA and WHIP, look for some good quality relievers to fill the vacated spots.

Today, I am looking at players coming back from the DL in the last few weeks of the season. Most injured players are just being shut down, so the pickings are slim for players returning.

Chase Headley (finger – 36% owned) – If an owner is needing some help at 3B, Headley is planning on playing the last couple weeks of the season. From team reports, he looks to be available around the 15th. He will help a team maintain or give a small boost to their average. He may not get much of a green light for stealing bases since his finger was fractured on a head first steal. Don’t expcet many, if any, home runs since he has hit only 4 this entire season.

Ryan Ludwick (back – 20% owned) – Ludwick should return from the DL on Wednesday. He is one of the few sources of home runs available on the DL waiver wire. If an an owner is needing help in the home run category, he may be able to provide 2 or 3 additional shots in the final few weeks.

Travis Hafner (foot – 15% owned) – Hafner is already in the middle of his rehab and plans on returning to the team in about a week. Like Ludwick, he is not a great source of home runs, but one of the few sources available. Also, this may be Hafner’s final season, so I could see the team give him plenty of playing time to accumulate RBIs and Runs.

Scott Baker (elbow – 20% owned) – Baker has never been a flashy pitcher, but he is safest bet for a starting pitcher coming off the DL. He has a near 4:1 K to BB ratio for the season. He will make a nice addition to a team needing a little starting pitching help, especially in H2H playoffs.

Johan Santana (shoulder – 8.3% owned) – Santana plans on throwing a few times this season, with the Mets’ game on the 14th being the goal. The start is going to have an inning limit, so the impact will be minimal. He may be a good pick up for an owner that is having one of their other pitchers shut down for the season and needs a fill in. I would be cautious of starting him on his debut game. I would like to see the speed of his fastball and what kind of control he displays. Some owners, especially in H2H playoffs, may not have that luxury of sitting him because they need the stats. I see him as the highest risk/reward option in the up coming weeks.

In fantasy baseball, owners are always looking to take advantage of the lucky and unlucky players by selling high and buying low. I wanted an easy, yet comprehensive stat to find players under or over performing their season’s stats. The final results led me to Luck. Read the rest of this entry »

Melky Cabrera is having nice rebound season in Kansas City. Currently he has 17 HR, 17 SB and a 0.302 AVG. It is the 27 year old’s best fantasy season of his career. His value in 2012 will be determined if he can maintain this production level Read the rest of this entry »

Here is a list of 2B owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues. They might be able to help a fantasy team in H2H playoffs or for a final push up the standings.

Jamey Carroll (7.3% owned) – Carroll has not had a good offensive season, especially in the power stats, 0 HR and 12 RBIs. The one item he can hlep a team with is his 0.291 AVG and 10 SB. If an owner is looking good in HRs and RBIs, they could add Carroll to help stabilize or help an AVG that is being dragged down by the likes of Kelly Johnson. Also, Carroll has the flexibility of being qualified at the SS position. Finally, he has gotten plenty of playing time (11 straight games), so he will be available to generate a few counting stats.

Robert Andino (7.3 % owned) – Andino has little value besides helping a team in a deep or AL only league to have a roster-able full time player. His SLG (0.323) is below his OBP (0.326) which is a warning sign to stay away. He has hit a total of 2 home runs this season and produced 21 RBIs. His 0.258 AVG is 17 points higher than his career average, so it is about maxed out. The only way I could see him as a useable player for an owner that is extremely desperate for counting stats. With his 3 eligible positions, he could be used as a flex option on other player’s days off.

Jose Altuve (7.1% owned) – Altuve has be a fairly serviceable 2B since playing his first game on July 20th. He currently has a 0.310 AVG, but not a lot more stats to be impressed with (1 HR and 3 SB in 152 PA). Like Carroll, he looks like a nice addition for a team to solidify their AVG, while not gaining a whole lot in counting stats. Also, he could be a nice bench player to fill in on off days.

Johnny Giavotella (6.1% owned) – Giavotella had the chance to be an OK option at 2B, but Ned Yost just can’t get over his love affair with Chris Getz. Giavotella, the Royals AAA player of the year, started playing all the time when first called up, but is now playing intermittently. When he does start, Getz is used as a late game replacement. He should be a decent option, but with Getz still in the picture, I would stay away from him for now.